Alexander Zverev vs. Cameron Norrie Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Third Round

No. 3 Alexander Zverev was the runner-up at last year’s Australian Open, and his quest to make another final is off to a solid start, as he’s advanced to the third round despite losing a set in each of his first two matches.

Now, Zverev takes on No. 26 Cameron Norrie, who is looking to make the fourth round of the Australian Open for just the second time in his career.

Norrie and Zverev have faced off six times in their respective careers, but the German has gotten the win in all of those meetings, including a clash at the 2024 Australian Open.

Does history repeat itself in this third-round match?

Oddsmakers have Zverev set as a sizable favorite, but the German has shown some cracks so far, dropping sets to Alexandre Muller and Gabriel Diallo.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, each player’s path to the third round and my prediction for this match.

Alexander Zverev vs. Cameron Norrie Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Alexander Zverev: -429
Cameron Norrie: +319

Total

36.5 (Over -120/Under -120)

Alexander Zverev vs. Cameron Norrie How to Watch

Date: Friday, Jan. 23
Time: 2:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): TBA

Alexander Zverev vs. Cameron Norrie History and Tournament So Far

Alexander Zverev

The last two Australian Open appearances for Zverev have ended fairly well, as he made the semifinals in 2024 and was the runner-up to Jannik Sinner in 2025.

Zverev faced Norrie once at the Australian Open in his career, beating him in the fourth round in 2024.

They last faced off at Wimbledon in 2024, but Zverev has yet to lose a single match against the No. 26 player in the world.

This year at Melbourne Park, Zverev has two wins where he went to four sets, but he was never really in trouble in either match. Can he keep that going to advance to the fourth round for the seventh time in his last eight Australian Open appearances?

Cameron Norrie

Norrie’s best Australian Open finish was a fourth-round appearance in 2024, but he was actually knocked out by Zverev.

Norrie has performed much better at Wimbledon than any other Grand Slam event, and this is just his fourth trip to the third round at Melbourne Park.

In his first two matches, Norrie went the distance against Benjamin Bonzi (Round 1) before taking down Emilio Nava in four sets in Round 2.

Alexander Zverev vs. Cameron Norrie Prediction and Pick

Zverev has dominated this matchup in his career, only dropping a set to Norrie one time – the 2024 Australian Open.

In fact, Norrie won two sets in that match in his best showing ever at Melbourne Park, as he made the fourth round before falling to Zverev.

Despite that, I like Zverev to cover the set spread (-1.5) on Friday.

The German has yet to lose to Norrie in his career, and all of their other meetings he has won in straight sets, including their last match at Wimbledon in 2024.

Norrie has not gotten through the first two rounds unscathed, as he dropped a set in each of his first two matches. Zverev did the same, but this bet gives him the cushion to drop a set and still win on Friday.

Pick: Alexander Zverev Set Spread -1.5 (-200 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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