Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting on Scheffler, McIlroy and Justin Thomas

SI Golf staff | Mar 5, 2025

Scottie Scheffler (left), Justin Thomas (center) and Rory McIlroy (right) are all picks for the API. / Rory Mcilroy: Brennan Asplen/Getty ImagesScottie Scheffler: Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesJustin Thomas: Andrew Redington/Getty ImagesBackground: Michael Cohen/Getty Images

Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner nailed the first outright winner for the SI Golf Panel with his longshot pick of Joe Highsmith at +11000 odds (FanDuel) at last week's Cognizant Classic. Kirschner also hit J.J. Spaun Top 20 at +225. That left him up over 110 units on the week. 

What a performance! Hope you tailed! 

This week, the SI Golf Panel looks to stay hot at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where the big names are atop the oddsboard for this PGA Tour signature event. We’ve got outright picks, longshots, first-round leader picks and our favorite prop bets below. 

The panel is comprised of Kirschner, SI Golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor and golf bettor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. 

This is our fifth event making picks. Kirschner is the biggest winner at +98.25 units overall. MacMillan is down 5.77 units, Giuffra is down 10.77 units, Vincenzi is down 12 units, Schwarb is down 14.1 units and Williams is down 16 units. 

Of course, one outright would change everything, and let’s not forget that Vincenzi nearly had one at the Mexico Open with Aldrich Potgieter, who lost in a playoff, and MacMillan had Patrick Rodgers at the Genesis, where he finished third.

The panel is hot, and we’re ready for a second outright win! Here are our picks for the API, with full write-ups below. 

Arnold Palmer SI Golf Betting Panel Picks / Sports Illustrated

Outright Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Rory McIlroy (+850, BetMGM)

With Scottie Scheffler still trying to return to last year’s form since suffering his hand injury and Xander Schauffele making his first start since his rib injury, McIlroy is the most win-ready golfer in the field this week and the best driver on tour. He finished 13th or better every year at Bay Hill from 2017 to 2023, including a win in 2018.

Matt Vincenzi: Tommy Fleetwood (+3000, DraftKings)

Looking back at previous winners at Bay Hill, the prevailing theme is that they’ve been playing well and gaining strokes on approach entering the week. Tommy is absolutely flushing the ball at the moment. Fleetwood has gained strokes both on approach and off the tee in every event this season, and in his most recent start at the Genesis Invitational, he was fifth in the field in strokes-gained approach (+5.12).

John Schwarb: Patrick Cantlay (+3000, FanDuel)

I think Rory McIlroy will be a factor late Sunday afternoon but his +750 price isn’t juicy enough for me. Instead I’ll take four times that price with Patrick Cantlay. Last time we saw Cantlay on Tour, he finished T5 at the signature Genesis. While he doesn’t have a deep history at Bay Hill, he does own a T4 in his two starts. He’s too pure of a ball striker to not factor this week and, again, at that price I’m willing to see if things break his way for the first time since the BMW Championship in 2022. That drought has to end soon, right? 

Brian Kirschner: Justin Thomas (+2800, FanDuel) 

I think most people who have followed golf this year are waiting for JT to break through and get his first win on the PGA Tour in nearly three years. The API is the perfect week to get across the line. Coming off a ninth-place finish at the Genesis, where he gained a staggering 8 strokes on approach, there is no doubt he’s hitting the ball well right now. Although it’s not a perfect course fit on paper for JT, he’s played better than expected. He had a 12th-place finish at Bay Hill last year, where he gained in all major categories, when he was in much worse form. 

Cody Williams: Justin Thomas (+2800, FanDuel)

Shouts to Kirschner for also seeing the vision here. This feels like Justin Thomas’s week. He’s been trending toward a victory all year, and is coming in off a T6 in Phoenix and a T9 at The Genesis with combined 13 strokes gained approach over those eight rounds. In fact, JT is best in the API field over the last 20 rounds in weighted SG: Approach. Combine improving his T21 in 2023 at Bay Hill to a T12 last year with his current form — not to mention gaining strokes on Bermuda greens — and Thomas should be able to contend with even Scottie and Rory in the field. 

Brian Giuffra: Scottie Scheffler (+350, BetMGM) 

“I will not bet Scottie Scheffler, I will not bet Scottie Scheffler, I will not bet Scottie Scheffler.” It seems the entire golf betting world has planted a flag in the ground that betting Scheffler at such short odds is a cowardly move. Fine, call me a coward, but I’m following the numbers. Scheffler won 50% of the PGA Tour’s Signature events last year, including the API. He’s an outstanding tough-course player and Bay Hill is one of the toughest on Tour. Historically, this is the time of year when Scheffler’s game heats up. His driver has been a little erratic so far this year, but outside that, he’s still the best golfer on planet earth. No brainer for this coward. PS: Scheffler’s odds at FanDuel and DraftKings are +320 so if you’re betting him do it at BetMGM. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Ben Griffin (+8000, FanDuel)

Ben Griffin is fresh off back-to-back T4 finishes, and now it’s time to see if he can carry that momentum into a big-boy event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished T14 at this event in 2023, and his solid off-the-tee play seems like a great course fit for him to compete at Bay Hill.

Matt Vincenzi: Min Woo Lee (+8000, DraftKings)

Players will need a well-rounded game to win at Bay Hill, but two of the most important aspects of performing well at the course are being able to hit it well off the tee and scramble well around the greens. Over his past 24 rounds, Min Woo ranks 19th in strokes gained off the tee and fourth in strokes gained around the green.

John Schwarb: Sepp Straka (+7000, FanDuel)

Straka has risen to 18th in the world with a 2025 that has five top-15 finishes in seven starts, including his win at the American Express. The Austrian was T11 at the Cognizant, where he was sixth in strokes-gained approach and 15th in strokes-gained off the tee—both key metrics for Bay Hill. His history at Arnie’s place is a bit hideous, with four missed cuts and a 57th last year, but I’ll take overall form over course form here at a generous price.

Brian Kirschner: Aaron Rai (+9000, FanDuel)

Over the summer, Aaron Rai was arguably a top 20 golfer in the world. Although the form has dipped, I believe he is closer to that form, and 90/1 is a steal this week. Coming off a 3rd-place finish in Mexico, where he gained 9 strokes on approach, I think that will bode well for him this week. Elite long iron play with above average accuracy with driving is the name of the game this week and Rai has both. 

Cody Williams: Cam Davis (+17000, FanDuel)

It’s been an up-and-down start to 2025 for Cam Davis with two missed cuts in five starts, including at The Genesis, but also three Top 20 finishes and a T5 at Pebble in there as well. The fit for Bay Hill at 170/1 is enticing, though. Over the last 20 rounds, he’s 15th in weighted SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Around-the-Green, third in SG: Par 5 and Top 15 in scoring on Par 3s measuring 200 or more yards. That all plays well here and has my ears perked up, especially after a T18 at the API last year. 

Brian Giuffra: Billy Horschel (+10000, FanDuel) 

Horschel has been a bit spotty this year, missing the cut at the WM Open and Genesis before returning to his home state and finishing T25 at last week’s Cognizant. Before that, he was T9 at Pebble after a T21 at the American Express. Playing at home on a course where he’s had success (T2, 2022), I like Horschel to build off last week’s momentum at Bay Hill. 

First-Round Leader 

Iain MacMillan: Patrick Cantlay (+4000, FanDuel)

Last year, Cantlay thrived in the opening round, ranking 15h on Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 69.06. Don’t be surprised if those first round scores start to pop up for him in 2025, especially now that he’s coming into this week off two-straight performances where he gained over +1.2 strokes per round with his approach game. I like him to win outright this week, but I think he’s also worth a play to be the first-round leader.

Matt Vincenzi: Jason Day (+6000, FanDuel)

Day won at Bay Hill back in 2016 and he’s had a handful of solid starts at the course since. I think Day is playing a bit better than people realize at the moment and is going under the radar. 

John Schwarb: Shane Lowry (+4500, DraftKings)

I want to have the Irishman on my card somewhere. He’s coming in off a T11 at the Cognizant and was second earlier this year at the signature event at Pebble. A win will be coming somewhere in 2025—maybe not this week but at the very least I can see him jumping out quickly just like last year, when he took the first-round lead en route to a solo third. 

Brian Kirschner: Keegan Bradley (+5000, DraftKings)

I think Keegan has one more big run in him before the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage. What I like about Keegan this week is he has played this event long before it was a signature event. It’s clearly a venue he thinks he can contend at. I’m also confident in his recent ball striking, as he gained over 6 strokes at Torrey, which is a fair comp to Bay Hill. He just could not get the putter going and I’m assuming he turns that around this week on Bermuda. 

Cody Williams: Harris English (+10000, FanDuel)

Bay Hill certainly doesn’t seem like a natural fit for English, but neither does Torrey Pines, where he won the Farmers earlier this year. And he’s had success at the API with a T21 last year, a T2 in 2023 and a T9 in 2020 as well. While the signature event field scares me off from the outright market, I do think he’ll find his way into the mix at some point. Getting 100/1 on a first-round leader play feels like a nice way to attack that. 

Brian Giuffra: Justin Thomas (+3500, FanDuel) 

Thomas is going to contend this week, and I’ll likely sprinkle a bit on him in the outright market, but I also like him to start hot this week. He’s fired rounds of 67, 66 and 66 in first rounds this year and has been under par in four of his five first rounds this season. His driving accuracy has been a bit sporadic this season, but his putting has been outstanding and he’s making the eighth-most birdies per round on tour this season. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Justin Thomas -110 vs. Xander Schauffele (BetMGM)

I’m going to fade Schauffele, who is making his first start since a T30 finish at The Sentry due to an injured rib. Not only is this his first start in a few months, but he’s never posted a strong result at Bay Hill with his best finish being T24. Meanwhile, Justin Thomas has posted a top 10 finish in three of his last four starts and finished T12 at this event last year.

Matt Vincenzi: Shane Lowry Top 10 (+300, DraftKings)

I trust Lowry over almost anyone in the field in difficult conditions. At the Cognizant Classic, the Irishman didn’t hit the ball all that well in his opening two rounds, but the ball striking was fantastic over the weekend. He gained 3.08 strokes on approach on Saturday, which led the field. He followed that up by gaining 1.96 on Sunday, which ranked eighth in the field. Lowry struggled at Bay Hill for a while but seemed to figure something out last year when he finished third.

John Schwarb: Justin Thomas Top 10 (+230, FanDuel) 

JT is a popular choice this week and rightfully so with a season that includes a T9 at the Genesis, T6 in Phoenix and second at the American Express. The win drought that dates to the 2022 PGA is going to end soon. While he doesn’t have my pick to win, I’ll take better than 2-to-1 that he’s around the first page of the leaderboard, and he was T12 at Bay Hill last year.

Brian Kirschner: Sam Burns Top 20 (+180, FanDuel)

Although he has no super high end finishes this year, I still believe in Burns talent and that is he going to have a good PGA Tour season this year. An excellent bermuda putter and driver of the ball, this place should suit Sam’s eye. With a ninth-place finish here in 2022, I think that +180 is a good number for the 28th ranked golfer in the world.

Cody Williams: Michael Kim Top 20 (+190, BetMGM)

Fine, I’ll take the bait on Michael Kim with the way he’s been playing, although he hasn’t played at Bay Hill since 2019, which was a missed cut, though he did come in at T17 back in 2017. Kim hasn’t finished worse than T13 in his last four starts, gaining 11.31, 3.15, 6.28 and 7.38 strokes tee-to-green in each of those starts while also being a positive putter. There’s something to be said about riding the hot hand, and I’m in. 

Brian Giuffra: Winning Score OVER 275.5 Shots (-120, FanDuel) 

After last week’s disappointing pillow fight at PGA National, I’m guessing the PGA Tour fights back this week and makes Bay Hill a formidable challenge for the players. Thankfully, it looks like Mother Nature will help too, with high winds forecasted for Thursday and Sunday. In my bet, I need the winning score to be -12 or less. Before Scottie Scheffler shot 15-under last year, the winning score was -12 or lower five straight times. 

Winning Score 

• Iain MacMillan:  -14
• Matt Vincenzi: -8
• John Schwarb: -11
• Brian Kirschner: -10
• Cody Williams: -13
• Brian Giuffra: -11