Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Pete Alonso, Shohei Ohtani, Cam Smith)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets for the MLB action on Tuesday, July 22.

Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani is a great prop target on Tuesday. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

After back-to-back days of hitting a home run prop bet, yours truly is back with another set of picks for the MLB action on Tuesday, July 22.

Matt Olson came through in Sunday's picks, and Cleveland Guardians slugger Jose Ramirez hit a homer on Monday night while putting together a three-hit game to cash yet another bet. 

On Tuesday, I’m eyeing two superstars – one being Shohei Ohtani – and one long shot to leave the yard.

While these picks are hard to hit on a day-to-day basis, I do believe there are some pitchers that are worth fading tonight, which should help these players go deep. 

Here’s a complete breakdown of the home run props for Tuesday night’s action. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks or Tuesday, July 22

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Cam Smith to Hit a Home Run (+700)
• Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+220)
• Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+165)

Cam Smith to Hit a Home Run (+700)

If you’re looking for a longshot, AL Rookie of the Year candidate Cam Smith is a great bet in the Houston Astros’ matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Smith has just seven home runs in the 2025 season, which is part of the reason why he’s set at +700 ods, but he has a great matchup against D-Backs lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.

So far this season, Rodriguez has a 5.94 ERA, and he’s allowed 16 home runs in 16 appearances. Over his two starts in July, Rodriguez has given up a whopping five home runs in just 8.1 innings of work.

Smith has crushed left-handed pitching in his rookie season, posting a .322/.412/.610 slash line with four of his seven home runs. Smith only has 59 at-bats against lefties, yet he’s hit more home runs against them than he has in 253 at-bats against right-handed pitching.

At this price, Smith is worth a look on Tuesday. 

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+220)

New York Mets star Pete Alonso is having a career season, and he’ll look to add to that on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels.

Los Angeles has righty Kyle Hendricks on the mound, and he’s given up a lot of home runs in 2025 – 16 in 18 appearances. Not only that, but Hendricks has very pedestrian numbers overall, posting a 4.88 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 2025.

Alonso has reverse splits this season, meaning he’s hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching despite being a right-handed hitter. The Mets slugger has 16 of his 21 homers against righties, and he’s hitting .300 against them compared to just a .198 batting average against lefties.

Plus, Alonso has some success against Hendricks in his career, going 2-for-7 with a home run. I think he takes advantage of the matchup with the Angels, who also have the third-worst bullpen ERA in baseball.

L.A.’s bullpen has allowed an MLB-high 59 home runs in the 2025 season.  

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+165)

Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani has gotten off to a fast start since the All-Star break, hitting three home runs in four games while posting a 1.107 OPS.

On Tuesday, he’ll take on the Minnesota Twins and righty Simeon Woods Richardson, who has given up 10 home runs in 15 appearances in 2025.

Woods Richardson enters this start with a 3.95 ERA, but his underlying numbers are pretty concerning. He ranks in just the 15th percentile in MLB in barrel percentage and the seventh percentile in ground-ball percentage. 

A lot of hard-hit fly balls is a recipe for disaster against Ohtani and the Dodgers.

Against right-handed pitching, Ohtani has 28 of his 35 home runs in the 2025 season. While this price isn’t great, I think the Dodgers star is poised to stay hot out of the All-Star break.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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