Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Third Round

World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz is looking to win the Australian Open for the first time in his career, and he’s through to the third round so far, setting up a match with Corentin Moutet.

This is the second year in a row that Moutet has made the third at Melbourne Park, but he only has two career fourth-round appearances at a Grand Slam.

So, this is almost uncharted territory for the Frenchman, and now he has one of the toughest opponents he’ll face all year.

Alcaraz has not dropped a set in this year’s Australian Open, but he has needed 30 games to get through both of his victories.

Will he make quicker work of Moutet in their first ever meeting?

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the third round and my prediction for this match.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Carlos Alcaraz: -3800
Corentin Moutet: +1920

Total

28.5 (Over -115/Under -125)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Jan. 22
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet History and Tournament So Far

Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz’s history at Melbourne Park isn’t nearly as impressive as the other Grand Slams, as he’s made back-to-back quarterfinal appearances but has never made the semis.

He’s off to a good start in 2026, knocking off Adam Walton and Yannick Hanfmann in straight sets. After reaching the final in the three other Grand Slams in 2025 and winning two of them, Alcaraz has a lot of momentum heading into this third-round match.

Corentin Moutet

This is the second year in a row that Moutet has made the third round at Melbourne Park, but he’s never made it further than this in his career. The 26-year-old has three second-round exits and two first-round exits in his other five Australian Open appearances.

Moutet beat Tristan Schoolkate in straight sets in the first round before defeating Michael Zheng in a walkover in the fourth set in Round 2.

He has yet to face Alcaraz in his career, setting up for an interesting third-round battle.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet Prediction and Pick

Moutet won’t be a pushover for Alcaraz, as he is the No. 32 player in the world and only dropped one set over his first two matches at this year’s Australian Open.

The odds favor Alcaraz winning this match in a rout, but the No. 1 player in the world has needed 30 games to win each of his first two matches, going to a tiebreak in one set in each match as well.

That bodes well for Moutet, as he should be able to at least pick off a few games against the reigning U.S. Open champion.

Alcaraz has traditionally struggled (by his standards) at Melbourne Park, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this match ends up also going longer than oddsmakers expect.

Since there is very little value in betting a side unless you think Moutet will win a set, the total is where I’ll look in this third round showdown.

Pick: OVER 28.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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