Dream vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Aug. 10

The Mercury are 11-4 at home in the 2025 season.

Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas is a great prop target on Sunday. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Sole possession of the No. 3 seed in the WNBA is up for grabs on Sunday, as the Phoenix Mercury (19-11) host the Atlanta Dream (19-11).

Atlanta is hoping to get Rhyne Howard and Brittney Griner (both questionable) back in action for this matchup, but the best betting sites have the Dream set as underdogs on the road. 

Meanwhile, the Mercury have won three games in a row and are looking to build on an 11-4 mark at home this season. The Dream are 2-0 against Phoenix this season, including a 23-point win at home the last time these teams faced off.

Can Phoenix flip the script on Sunday?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch and my prediction for Sunday’s action. 

Dream vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Dream +4 (-112)
• Mercury -4 (-108)

Moneyline

• Dream: +140
• Mercury: -166

Total

• 165.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Dream vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 10
• Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• Dream record: 19-11
• Mercury record: 19-11

Dream vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Dream Injury Report

• Rhyne Howard – questionable
• Brittney Griner – questionable

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Dream vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Alyssa Thomas OVER 8.5 Assists (+100)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Thomas is worth a look in the prop market on Sunday: 

MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas has been on fire for the Phoenix Mercury, recording a triple-double in each of her last three games.

Thomas is now averaging 9.2 assists per game this season, and the point-forward should be able to build on that mark against an Atlanta team that is in the middle of the pack (sixth) in defensive rating this season. 

Thomas has nine or more dimes in 13 of her 25 games this season, so getting her at even money to do so on Sunday evening is a pretty solid value. She’s also cleared this line in one of her two meetings with the Dream so far in 2025. 

Dream vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

This game may come down to whether or not Howard and Griner are able to play, but Phoenix has been an elite team at home in 2025.

The Mercury are 11-4 straight up at home, and it's a major reason why they’re in the mix for a top-three seed in the W this season.

Now, Atlanta is 9-7 on the road and has been capable of beating the top teams in the league all season, but potentially missing two starters on Sunday would make it very tough against a Phoenix team that is finally healthy with Satou Sabally, Thomas and Kahleah Copper all in the lineup. 

These teams are No. 3 (Atlanta) and No. 4 (Phoenix) in net rating this season, but I lean with the Mercury to win this matchup at home.

Still, bettors should likely wait for the official statuses of Griner and Howard before placing a wager, as the odds will undoubtedly shift if they both suit up. 

Pick: Mercury Moneyline (-166 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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