Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 18

Tarik Skubal and the Tigers are favored on Thursday.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal is a great prop target on Thursday. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers wrap up their early-week series on Thursday afternoon with Cleveland fighting for a playoff spot.

The Guardians picked up a huge upset win on Wednesday – which I predicted in our betting preview – and they find themselves as underdogs again on Thursday. The difference this time?

Cleveland has to face Detroit ace and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal in this matchup.

So far this season, Skubal has tossed 16.0 scoreless innings against the Guardians, and he’ll look to add to that total on Thursday night.

Tanner Bibee (4.44 ERA) is on the mound for Cleveland as it looks to stay alive in a tight AL wild card race.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this AL Central battle.  

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Guardians +1.5 (-127)
• Tigers -1.5 (+104)

Moneyline

• Guardians: +1777
• Tigers: -219

Total

• 7.5 (Over +102/Under -125)

Guardians vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• Cleveland: Tanner Bibee (10-11, 4.44 ERA)
• Detroit: Tarik Skubal (13-5, 2.26 ERA)

Guardians vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept.18
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSDET, CLEG
• Guardians record: 80-71
• Tigers record: 85-67

Guardians vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Tarik Skubal OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m trusting Skubal to hit his strikeout prop:

Cleveland Guardians lefty Tarik Skubal is a massive favorite to win his second straight AL Cy Young award (-4000), and he’s also a great prop target on Thursday afternoon.

Skubal is taking on a Cleveland Guardians team that he has dominated this season, allowing five hits and no runs across 16.0 innings of work. Skubal tossed a two-hit shutout against Cleveland earlier this season, and he’s also had his strikeout numbers jump in his starts against the AL Central rival.

Skubal punched out 13 batters in his shutout, and he ended up racking up 10 more K’s in seven scoreless innings in his second start against the Guards. 

I think he’s a must bet at this number on Thursday, as the lefty ranks in the 92nd percentile in whiff percentage and the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage. 

Cleveland is averaging just over eight strikeouts per game in 2025. 

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Skubal has been absolutely dominant against the Guardians this season, and it has resulted in the Tigers winning 5-0 and 7-2 in his starts against them.

The reigning AL Cy Young award winner has led his team to a 21-8 record in his starts, with 14 of those wins coming by two or more runs.

Now, Bibee is coming off a two-hit shutout against the Chicago White Sox, but he struggled in the month of August, posting a 6.15 ERA. 

Ultimately, I don’t think he’ll outduel Skubal, who should continue to dominate a Guardians team that is 28th in MLB in batting average against left-handed pitching this season. 

Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+104 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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