Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Padres-Mets, Giants-Dodgers, Tarik Skubal)

Tarik Skubal is a great prop target on Thursday afternoon.

Tarik Skubal is a great prop target on Thursday afternoon. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Looking to bet on the Major League Baseball action on Thursday, Sept. 18?

While we don’t have a full 15-game slate, there are still some intriguing matchups to dive into as the playoffs approach. 

Both the American League and National League playoff pictures are far from solidified, and there are some teams that are looking to play spoiler down the stretch that have already been eliminated from the race. 

On Thursday, I’m targeting the San Diego Padres-New York Mets series finale, as well as a bet for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ series opener with the San Francisco Giants. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each of these best bets – and their latest odds – on Sept. 18. 

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Sept. 18

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• San Diego Padres-New York Mets OVER 9 (-108)
• Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-169) vs. San Francisco Giants
• Tarik Skubal OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+102)

San Diego Padres-New York Mets OVER 9 (-108)

The Padres and Mets wrap up a three-game set on Thursday afternoon, and I think that we could see yet another high-scoring game between these NL playoff contenders.

New York and San Diego have combined for exactly 11 runs in each of their first two games, and the total for Game 3 has jumped up all the way to nine with a shaky pitching matchup for both sides.

Randy Vasquez (3.72 ERA) is on the mound for the Padres, and he has one of the worst advanced profiles in MLB. Vasquez ranks in the sixth percentile in expected ERA (5.57), the 12th percentile in expected batting average against (.280) and the ninth percentile in barrel percentage (11.2 percent) this season.

He also struggles to generate any swings and misses, ranking in the first percentile in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage this season. So, I’m not going to be fooled by Vasquez’s solid ERA when it comes to this matchup.

On the Mets’ side, youngster Jonah Tong will make his fourth appearance of his career, and he’s allowed four or more runs in all three of his previous outings. Tong has a 8.49 ERA, and he allowed six runs in just 0.2 of an inning in his last outing.

Even though the Padres aren’t a super explosive offense, Tong’s floor has been four runs allowed so far in 2025. 

I think both of these starters will struggle, helping push a game in this series into double digits once again. 

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-169) vs. San Francisco Giants

The Los Angeles Dodgers salvaged their series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, winning 5-0 with Blake Snell on the mound.

Now, they’ll turn to righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto in their series opener with the wild card hopeful San Francisco Giants. The Giants are currently two games back of the Mets for the final wild card spot in the NL.

Logan Webb (3.34 ERA) is on the mound for the Giants in this game, but he struggled in his last outing against the Dodgers, allowing 10 hits and six runs back on Sept. 13.

Against Los Angeles in 2025, Webb has given up 14 runs in three starts, including two outings where he’s given up at least six runs.

Yamamoto, on the other hand, held the Giants to just one hit in seven innings back on Sept. 12. He’s given up just one run on four hits over his last two outings against the NL West rival, although he was tagged for five runs in his first start against San Francisco this season.

Yamamoto has been trending in the right direction, posting a 2.02 ERA over his last five starts. With the Dodgers sitting at 21 games over .500 at home, I think they’re worth a look in this series opener on Thursday night. 

Tarik Skubal OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Cleveland Guardians lefty Tarik Skubal is a massive favorite to win his second straight AL Cy Young award (-4000), and he’s also a great prop target on Thursday afternoon.

Skubal is taking on a Cleveland Guardians team that he has dominated this season, allowing five hits and no runs across 16.0 innings of work. Skubal tossed a two-hit shutout against Cleveland earlier this season, and he’s also had his strikeout numbers jump in his starts against the AL Central rival.

Skubal punched out 13 batters in his shutout, and he ended up racking up 10 more K’s in seven scoreless innings in his second start against the Guards. 

I think he’s a must bet at this number on Thursday, as the lefty ranks in the 92nd percentile in whiff percentage and the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage. 

Cleveland is averaging just over eight strikeouts per game in 2025.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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