Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 8

The Mets are road favorites with Nolan McLean on the mound.

New York Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean has led the team to a 4-0 record in his starts this season. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Take a look at our Mets-Phillies preview for Wednesday's game HERE!

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The New York Mets are seven games back in the NL East heading into Monday night’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phils are likely going to win the division, but they find themselves as underdogs on Monday in the latest odds at the best betting sites. 

New York has youngster Nolan McLean on the mound for the fifth start of his MLB career, and he tossed eight scoreless innings against Philadelphia earlier this season. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola (6.78 ERA in 2025) will look to turn around what has been an awful 2025 season to date.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Monday’s action.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets -1.5 (+133)
• Phillies +1.5 (-163)

Moneyline

• Mets: -126
• Phillies: +104

Total

• 8.5 (Over -121/Under +100)

Mets vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• New York: Nolan McLean (4-0, 1.37 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (3-8, 6.78 ERA)

Mets vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Sept. 8
• Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, NBCS-PH, SNY
• Mets record: 76-67
• Phillies record: 83-60

Mets vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Juan Soto OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Soto has been on fire over the last two weeks, hitting .383 with six home runs and 18 hits across 13 games. The Mets outfielder has a great matchup tonight against Nola, who has allowed 22 hits in 19.1 innings of work over his four starts since returning to the rotation. 

In his career against Nola, Soto has five extra base-hits and a .979 OPS, so he’s certainly a threat to clear this prop with just one swing on Monday. 

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why 

I’m backing the Mets on Monday night: 

New York Mets rookie Nolan McLean has been lights out to open his MLB career, allowing just four total runs (1.37 ERA) across four starts. The Mets are 4-0 in those games, and McLean has given up just 13 hits in 26.1 innings of work.

Now, he makes his second start of the season against the Phillies, a team that he held to just four hits in eight scoreless innings of work in his third MLB start.

Philadelphia has veteran Aaron Nola (6.78 ERA) on the mound, and he’s posted an 8.38 ERA in four starts since coming off the injured list. 

Philly is 5-8 in Nola’s outings in the 2025 season, and he’s allowed four or more runs in eight of those outings. I think he’s an easy fade candidate in this divisional matchup on Monday. 

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-126 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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