Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 10

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies matchup on Sept. 10.

The Philadelphia Phillies are favored with pitcher Cristopher Sanchez on the mound on Sept. 10. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The New York Mets have dropped their first two games of their four-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies slipping further out of the NL East lead in the final month of the regular season.

New York now has just a two-game cushion in the NL wild card over the surging San Francisco Giants, and it’s set as a road underdog in the odds at the best betting sites for this game. 

Meanwhile, the Phillies are red hot, improving to 24 games over .500 at home by winning seven of their last 10 matchups overall. Cristopher Sanchez (2.60 ERA) will look to build on an impressive 2025 season on Wednesday, but he did struggle against the Mets when facing them last month.

New York will counter with righty Clay Holmes (3.61 ERA) as it looks to hold off the Giants in the wild card race.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Wednesday’s Game 3. 

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-156)
• Phillies -1.5 (+128)

Moneyline

• Mets: +143
• Phillies: -175

Total

• 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mets vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• New York: Clay Holmes (11-7, 3.61 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Cristopher Sanchez (12-5, 2.60 ERA)

Mets vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 10
• Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCS-PH, SNY
• Mets record: 76-69
• Phillies record: 85-60

Mets vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Clay Holmes UNDER 14.5 Outs Recorded (+102)

The Phillies offense has been red hot as of late, ranking sixth in runs, fourth in batting average and fourth in OPS over the last 15 days.

Holmes has struggled since the All-Star break, posting an ERA over 4.00 while reaching six innings pitched just one time. 

He went just 4.2 innings in his last start, and Holmes has multiple outings since the break where he’s been unable to work through four frames. For a pitcher that was converted to a starter this season, Holmes could be facing some late-season fatigue for New York. 

I think there is some value in betting on him to get bounced early from this game against a hot Phillies offense. 

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m trusting Sanchez and the Phils in this one:

Game 3 of the four-game set between the Mets and Phillies features Clay Holmes (3.61 ERA) on the mound against Philly’s Cristopher Sanchez (2.60 ERA).

Sanchez allowed eight hits and six runs in his last start against the Mets, but overall the lefty has been one of the better arms in MLB, allowing four or more earned runs in just three outings this season.

Holmes, on the other hand, may be showing some fatigue in his first season as a starter. Since the All-Star break, the righty has a 4.33 ERA, and he’s only pitched six full innings on one occasion. 

Holmes has given up four or more runs on four occasions during this nine-start stretch.

Philly came through to win a first five innings bet for us on Tuesday, and I’m going back to the well with Sanchez on the mound.  

Pick: Phillies First 5 Innings ML (-180 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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