NBA Finals Odds Movement: Lakers, Knicks Rise, Pacers, Pistons Fall After Free Agency Day 3

The Lakers and Knicks are on the rise in the latest NBA Finals odds.

The Los Angeles Lakers are now +1400 to win the title in the 2025-26 season. / Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

NBA free agency rolls on this week, and the Los Angeles Lakers finally made their big move, adding former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton on a two-year deal. 

Ayton should help fix the Lakers’ issues in the frontcourt, as the team did not have a viable starting center after the Anthony Davis trade in the 2024-25 season. Now, Ayton gives the Lakers at least a stopgap at the position for the 2025-26 season as they aim to win with Luka Doncic and LeBron James leading the roster. 

That move shifted the odds to win the NBA Finals in the 2025-26 season, but it wasn’t the only one.

The New York Knicks hired a head coach, which shifted their odds, and a few other teams saw their odds dip after underwhelming free agency moves to this point.

Here’s a breakdown of all of the odds movement from Day 2 to Day 3 of free agency in the NBA. 

Los Angeles Lakers

• Movement: +1600 to +1400 at DraftKings

The Lakers’ move to add Ayton has oddsmakers excited about the team’s outlook in the 2025-26 season, as they now have the fifth-best odds to win the title out of Western Conference teams and the seventh-best odds overall.

Ayton averaged 14.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game last season, and he’s certainly an offensive upgrade at center for Los Angeles. After the team missed out on a few big men in the opening day of free agency, the Lakers added a younger, higher upside player to pair with Doncic going forward. 

Now, it’s all up to James and whether or not he wants to remain in L.A. after opting into his contract earlier this offseason. 

New York Knicks

• Movement: Knicks are now No. 2 in the odds at FanDuel

The New York Knicks reportedly are set to hire Mike Brown as their next head coach, which gave them a slight boost in the odds at FanDuel.

New York is now the No. 2 choice – behind the Oklahoma City Thunder – to win the Finals in the 2025-26 season. 

KNICKS ARE SECOND FAVORITES TO WIN NBA FINALS AFTER HIRING MIKE BROWN.

(via @FDSportsbook) pic.twitter.com/Vn9FQ8sBZ8

— br_betting (@br_betting) July 2, 2025

The Knicks made the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2024-25 season, and they added two key bench pieces in free agency in Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele. Oddsmakers seem to think that could be enough for New York to reach the title in the 2025-26 campaign. 

Indiana Pacers

• Movement: +8000 to +9000 to +11000 at DraftKings

The Indiana Pacers have had an underwhelming offseason, and some of it was expected after Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his Achilles in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. That immediately tanked the Pacers’ odds to win the title in the 2025-26 season, but they’ve fallen even further since that. 

Indiana let Myles Turner walk in free agency – dodging the luxury tax in the process – which pushed the team to +9000 to win the title. However, oddsmakers have further adjusted the price, moving the Pacers down to +11000 in the latest odds. That’s a sign that Indiana may not even make the playoffs in the East in the 2025-26 season. 

Detroit Pistons

• Movement: +6000 to +7500 at DraftKings

The Detroit Pistons have been active in free agency, as they replaced Tim Hardaway Jr. and Malik Beasely with Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert, although they did lose Dennis Schroder to the Sacramento Kings.

However, another big move could be on the horizon, as the Pistons are discussing a three-team deal with Golden State and Sacramento surrounding forward Jonathan Kuminga, per NBC Sports California.

“The Warriors, Kings and Detroit Pistons are discussing a three-team blockbuster that would send Kuminga and veteran point guard Dennis Schröder to Sacramento in separate sign-and-trade deals, a source told NBC Sports California,” Ali Thanawalla and Tristi Rodriguez wrote. 

The deal would be a sign-and-trade a part of the Schroder deal, with more pieces moving in it as well. 

“The Kings, in turn, would send Monk to the Pistons, and second-year NBA guard Devin Carter and newly acquired big man Dario Šarić to the Warriors, the source said," Thanawalla and Rodriguez wrote. 

“The Kings parting ways with Monk has been the most likely scenario this offseason, two sources told NBC Sports California.

“Sacramento also would send two second-rounders to Golden State, the source said.”

This move could end up altering the Pistons’ odds to win it all, but so far oddsmakers appear unimpressed with the team’s offseason. 

Golden State Warriors

• Movement: +1600 t +1800 at DraftKings

Golden State has yet to make a major move in the offseason, and it appears that it could lose Kuminga for very little in a sign-and-trade.

However, the Warriors have been linked to veteran big man Al Horford, a move that could give them another proven rotation piece around Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green.

Golden State has slipped well behind Denver and the Lakers in the futures market after being in the mix for the No. 5 spot in the odds in the West before free agency began.

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