Padres vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 18

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the San Diego Padres-New York Mets matchup on Sept. 18.

New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto is a great prop target on Sept. 18. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The New York Mets and San Diego Padres have split the first two games of their series, as the Mets attempt to hang on to the final playoff spot in the NL.

New York currently has just a 1.5-game cushion over the Arizona Diamondbacks heading into Thursday afternoon's series finale with the Padres.

Randy Vasquez (3.72 ERA) is on the mound for San Diego against New York youngster Jonah 

Tong (8.49 ERA), who has struggled in his first three big-league outings.

There’s a player prop that I love in this game for New York Mets star Juan Soto, but first let’s dive into the odds, probable pitchers and my prediction for this afternoon matchup. 

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres +1.5 (-181)
• Mets -1.5 (+148)

Moneyline

• Padres: +113
• Mets: -137

Total

• 9 (Over -108/Under -113)

Padres vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Randy Vasquez (5-6, 3.72 ERA)
• New York: Jonah Tong (1-2, 8.49 ERA)

Padres vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept.18
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, SNY, SDPA
• Padres record: 83-69
• Mets record: 78-74

Padres vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+318)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Soto is a great target against Vasquez: 

New York Mets slugger Juan Soto has been hot over the last month, hitting .313 with 10 home runs over the last 28 days (26 games).

On Thursday afternoon, Soto will take on the San Diego Padres and Randy Vasquez, who ranks in the sixth percentile in expected ERA and the ninth percentile in barrel percentage in the 2025 season.

In his career against Vasquez, Soto is 1-for-3 with a home run. Against righties this season, the Mets star has homered 31 times while posting a .987 OPS. 

Vasquez has been far from lights out in 2025, and he’s given up 15 homers in 25 appearances. I think he’s an easy fade candidate against this New York offense. 

Padres vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

The Mets-Padres matchup has found it in all types of best bets columns on Thursday, as I wrote about my game pick in SI Betting’s best MLB bets column – Walk-Off Wagers:

The Padres and Mets wrap up a three-game set on Thursday afternoon, and I think that we could see yet another high-scoring game between these NL playoff contenders.

New York and San Diego have combined for exactly 11 runs in each of their first two games, and the total for Game 3 has jumped up all the way to nine with a shaky pitching matchup for both sides.

Randy Vasquez (3.72 ERA) is on the mound for the Padres, and he has one of the worst advanced profiles in MLB. Vasquez ranks in the sixth percentile in expected ERA (5.57), the 12th percentile in expected batting average against (.280) and the ninth percentile in barrel percentage (11.2 percent) this season.

He also struggles to generate any swings and misses, ranking in the first percentile in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage this season. So, I’m not going to be fooled by Vasquez’s solid ERA when it comes to this matchup.

On the Mets’ side, youngster Jonah Tong will make his fourth appearance of his career, and he’s allowed four or more runs in all three of his previous outings. Tong has a 8.49 ERA, and he allowed six runs in just 0.2 of an inning in his last outing.

Even though the Padres aren’t a super explosive offense, Tong’s floor has been four runs allowed so far in 2025. 

I think both of these starters will struggle, helping push a game in this series into double digits once again. 

Pick: OVER 9 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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