Making Moves | November 11, 2025

What a stinker of a Monday Night Football game . But the good news is we can put last week's football action behind us and start to look ahead to college football week 12 NFL week 11. Welcome to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. It is Tuesday, November 11th, and once again, another jam-packed show ready for you. Let's dive into it. It's time to take a look at the top headlines in sports betting today. Starting with a little rapid fire around the world headlines. We're going to go to the National Hockey League, we're going to the ice. Uh, Cale McCar, already a -400 favorite to win the Norris Trophy, which if you don't know, is the award given to the best defenseman. Uh, Cale McCarr, the defenseman for the Colorado Avalanche, I should say best offensive defenseman, uh, already 22 points on the season, that is tied for 7th amongst all skaters. Uh, I was looking at that bet before the season began. He was like 130 before the season began. I should have jumped on it all the way to -400. We're only a month into the season. Uh, -400, by the way, translated to implied probability means an 80% chance he's gonna win it. FanDuel is already offering Cale McCarr versus just the field, uh, is the other option if you want to bet on who is gonna win the Norris Trophy. It's basically just a bet on whether or not Cale McCarr is gonna get hurt. Uh, if he doesn't, I don't see how he doesn't win that award. Crazy. We're a month, uh, into the season and already one guy is a -400 favorite. By the way, Avalanche might just go ahead and clean sweep all the awards. Nathan McKinnon also has retaken as the betting favorite, uh, to win the Hart Trophy as the NHL MVP 29 points on the season, uh, 4 more than anyone else in the National Hockey League. Uh, fun record was set last night, Cade Cunningham , uh, which is kind of funny cause we had Peter Dewey on the show yesterday who gave us, uh, Cade Cunningham to go over his points and assists. Uh, and he soared over that because he set a record last night, uh, for the most missed shots in a single game. Uh, the game went to overtime and he just continued to put up points. Uh, 31 field goal. Attempts he missed. Uh, he still had a pretty solid night overall though. Uh, he did go over his points and assists mark that Peter Dewey gave out on the show yesterday. He had 46 points, 11 assists on 45 attempts. Yeah, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks, 5 steals. Wild game for Cade Cunningham for the Pistons who, uh, ended up leading them to a 137, 135 win in overtime. Uh, against, uh, Washington. So crazy, crazy night for Kate Cunningham. What a record to have. The most missed field goal attempts in a single game. Crazy. Uh, college basketball, Houston is now favored to win the national championship. We are now, uh, a little over a week into the season. Purdue entered the year as the favorite to win the national championship, but their odds have fallen to 12 to 1 because they barely scraped by Oakland over the weekend if you missed that. That, uh, they were tied with Oakland at halftime and. Going on to win by 10 points. So as a result, oddsmakers not as high on Purdue as they were a week ago. They have fallen to 12 to 1 to win the national championship. Uh, the Houston Cougars, last year's runner-up, uh, is now the + 950 favorite to win the college basketball national championship. Uh, and I do want to mention, uh, the women's odds because I did not mention that last. Last week, uh, the women's college basketball season has begun as well. Uh, to no one's surprise, UConn is the favorite at 210, uh, the dynasty that is UConn women's college basketball. South Carolina second on the odds list at 3 to 1, the usual suspects. But then you do have UCLA could be an interesting dark horse this year at 5 to 1 to win the women's college basketball championship that season. Uh, began a week ago as well. Uh, and then finally, we're gonna dive a little into a little bit more of some follow from last night's, uh, Monday Night Football game, but I do wanna mention Brian Dable was fired by the New York Giants. Yesterday, uh, you know, a very good first season with the Giants a few years ago where he ended up winning Coach of the Year, but now 3 blowing leads in a row, uh , has caused him to lose his job. One was to the Broncos this past week to the Bears, and I think there was another blowing lead, uh, in there. So Brian Dab now owed as the Giants' head coach. Uh, the Giants' win total is now set at 4.5. Uh, so it is a disaster for Giants fans. The good news is, I guess, is you can probably look forward to having a top 5 pick this season. Uh, and for salt in the wound, by the way, uh, Jackson Darrett now in concussion protocol as well. Uh, no news yet on whether or not Jackson Dartt will be returning to the field this week, uh, but not good. Your head coach is fired, your star rookie quarterbacks in concussion protocol, uh, and, uh, if you're a Giants fan, uh, the Rangers aren't good either. So maybe kind of cheer for the Islanders, I guess now is where you go as New York sports fan. Uh, but, uh, there we go, the Giants will move on from Brian Daable. They'll finish out the season with an interim head coach. Last night's NFL game was an absolute stinker. If you bet the over like I did, whew, that was, uh over quick. It was under quick, maybe you'd say. Uh, it was what, 0-0 at halftime, uh, just a low scoring, terrible game. The offenses looked terrible, uh, and as a, as a result, we have some odds followed. The Eagles did end up winning, uh, last night. It was an ugly win, but a win nonetheless. Uh, the Eagles have moved up to now +175 to get the number one seed. Uh, in the NFC, a little bit surprising to me, I guess, uh, maybe they have a little bit of an easier schedule the rest of the way out, but, uh, I certainly don't think they're the best team in the NFC. I would put them at what, 5 in the NFC? The Rams, the Lions, the Seahawks, uh, so, uh, yeah, so maybe 4, I guess you can't put the Packers in front of them anymore. Uh, but based on their schedule, they do have only 2 losses so far this season. Uh, they are now +175 to get the number 1 seed , which comes with, of course, home field advantage in the NFC side of the bracket and also that, uh, extremely valuable first round by. Uh, remember the Eagles trying to go back to the Super Bowl for the second straight year, trying to defend their Super Bowl championship , uh, from last season. Uh, despite the Eagles getting the win, Jalen Hurts saw his MVP odds fall. We were kind of talking about this, uh, how much the MVP odds had shaken up this past weekend, and if there are two dark horses who could still kind of get. Into the mix, it was gonna be Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. Neither of those guys, uh, made a case for themselves last night. In fact, they both hurt their resumes. Jalen Hurts has fallen to 25 to 1 to win NFL MVP. Uh, Jordan Love has completely exited the conversation down at 50 to 1 to win now NFL MVP. So those names that we talked about yesterday, Matt Stafford, uh, Drake May, unfortunately, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, creating a little bit more separation from the likes of Jalen Hurts and, um, Jordan Love. Packers no longer the favorite to win the NFC North after dropping that game last night. They're down to now +175, uh, to win that division. The Lions are now in the driver's seat. I'm very surprised about the Packers. This is a team. Uh, whose underlying metrics still look good, but for some reason, they just can't put it together on the field. They don't look smooth. They look, you know, they're not moving the ball offensively when their defense has a good game, their offense doesn't. When their offense has a good game, their defense doesn't. Uh, just out of sorts this Packers team is, um, and they got to be a little bit careful of completely falling out of the playoff pitcher because there are some teams in the NFC who are certainly waiting in the wings to grab, uh, one of those wild card spots. Uh, let's take a look at some NFL awards updates. We're gonna start with the race to win Defensive Player of the Year. Uh, actually, a couple of Browns, uh, members have taken over as favorites on the defensive side of the ball. Uh, starting with Miles Garrett, who is now the +145 favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. I've talked about this award a little bit the past couple of weeks. I suggested Brian Burns a few weeks ago because he was the sacks leader. Well, Miles Garrett has now caught Burns. They are. Uh, both leading the league in sacks with 11 each. So Brian Burds did not get any this past week. And also Miles Garrett has a game in hand. Uh, the Giants have not had their buy yet. Uh, the Browns have. So 11 sacks now for Miles Garrett to go along with 34 total tackles, 17 tackles for a loss, uh, and a forced fumble. Uh, and we also have, uh, a new odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. It is Emeka Ibuka, the wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He's sitting now at -120 as the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, uh, largely because Jackson Dart has now entered concussion protocol. So you gotta think Jackson Dart's gonna miss, uh, a couple of weeks. If he does, uh, that's gonna drop mode, cause obviously he didn't start the season, and now if he misses a few more games, he's just not gonna have enough games under his belt. To win that award, and Emeka Egbuka continues to produce for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So now he is the -120 favorite to win that award. And as I mentioned earlier, uh, two Browns players now the betting favorites. One was Miles Garrett, the other, uh, is Carson Schweissinger, who is now, uh, the betting favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. His stats so far this season, uh, add up to 74 total tackles, 1.5 sacks, an interception. Uh, yeah, so pretty good stuff, uh, for the Browns linebacker, but I gotta admit, uh, not a lot of really good defensive rookie performances, uh, this season. I'd be interested to see, let me see if I can quickly bring it up where the Falcons' pass rushers rank. The issue with the Falcons' pass rushes. There's so many of them now, uh, they kind of just all split up the work. Yeah, Jalen Walker, 15 to 1. That could be an interesting bet down the final stretch of the season because even though Schweis Schweisinger is the favorite, still plus 185, he's not an odds-on favorite. So, Jalen Walker, 15 to 1, he has been a, uh, played a key role in that Falcons revamped pass rush, uh, so far this season. And we also have a new favorite to win Coach of the Year. Mike Vrabel is trying to win the award for the second time. Uh, obviously the first time with the Patriots. He has now surpassed Shane Steinhe to win that award a +125, but it does seem like it is a three-man race between Vrabel, uh, and Shane Steinhen and Mike McDonald from the Seattle Seahawks. Uh, Vrabel and the Patriots. It's Continue to benefit from a very, very, very easy schedule. I think Shane Stein is more deserving of winning that award, uh, but, uh, I digress. We'll see how that shakes up, uh, by the end of the season. Week 12 of the college football season begins tonight with some November action. Uh, it is a beautiful thing, unfortunately. Tonight's games, even though it's action, even though it's fun, even though it's Tuesday night, uh, tonight's games stink. Uh, just the worst, uh, that the Mac has to offer on display tonight. You, you're right, UMass is not playing. Uh, I guess UMass would make things even worse. UMass, oh my God, I was looking at some metrics for UMass today, just unbelievable. They might lose a high school team. Uh, but we do have Kent State against Akron. Uh, it's the first game tonight. The Akron Zips, 5.5 point favorites. The over-under for that game is 46.5. I do, I do have a pick for that game, but if you want it, you gotta stick around till the end of the show. Uh, but I will give you right now a player to watch. It is Jordan Gant , and I will say, looking at These two games tonight, it's hard to find some significant players to watch, but I guess Jordan Gant is at least an important player for Akron, and he is averaging 5 yards per carry this season, 850 yards on 169 carries, 55 yards per carry. Uh, so if Akron does win, uh, he is going to play a big game. Uh, a big role in the ground game for the Zips tonight. The other game is Ohio, who is a 1.5 point favorite against Western Michigan. The over-under for that game is 46.5. Uh, I do not have a bet for this game, uh, so you don't have to stick around for a bet for this game cause it's, I think the odds are set pretty correctly. There are two teams who are a little bit better defensively than offensively. Uh, but, uh, I do have a pretty interesting player to watch actually tonight. Nata, if I'm pronouncing his first name correctly, Nata Tucker, a pass rusher for Western Michigan who has 9.5 sacks this season . So near the top of the list in terms of sack leaders in college football, uh, this season, uh, he is actually, Uh, let me see. So he's just outside the top 5, in sacks. Uh, the 5th-place guy is 10 right now. He's right behind him at 9.5. So, uh, yeah, tied for 6th in sacks this season, 9.5. So maybe Nadama Tucker is a name that you could see, uh, on some draft boards here next spring. So keep an eye on him and the pass rusher for Western. Uh , Michigan, uh, who is a very slight underdog to Ohio, uh, as we continue some action tonight. But like I said, I have one bet for tonight's action, but you do have to stick around to the end of the show to get it. All right, with this past weekend's football action in the books, it is time to look ahead to this week's action. We got college football week 12, NFL week 11, I have written down the, uh, top 84. For each, uh, the top 8 games to keep an eye on and maybe bet on for this week. And I'm, I'm gonna give you some early picks for these games as well. So let's start with college football. Week 12, we're gonna start with a game between Notre Dame and number 23 Pitt. So a game between two top 25 ranked teams in the country. Uh, important game for both teams. Uh, it is worth noting the Pitt coach said this game doesn't really matter because it's not an. ACC game, uh, so it's non-conference, so they don't really care that much, he said. Uh, I don't even really care if they put up 100 points against us, which, oh, that could be a challenge for Notre Dame. Uh oh, why would you say that? That's stupid. Uh, Meanwhile, important game for Notre Dame because this is probably their last game that they, uh, have any chance of losing. Uh, if they do lose this game, they're probably gonna fall out of the college football playoff. Uh, so they do need to be careful. They are 11.5 point favorites. Favorites, so pretty significant favorites this week, uh, but they sure, they certainly should not look past the Pitt Panthers. Uh, but I'm definitely gonna be taking Notre Dame to cover here as 11.5 point favorites. Uh, that, uh, that quote by the coach saying he doesn't even care if Notre Dame puts up 100 points cause it's not, uh, and, uh, not even a conference game, uh, that seems like a prime candidate to be shown on, uh, cold takes exposed after. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish win by 100. Uh, probably not gonna happen, but still, you know, you can't be giving a team bulletin board material like that. Huge game in the SEC, a very fun game in the SEC. Number 11 , Oklahoma against number 4 Alabama. Alabama is doing its best to hold on to a top 4 ranking in the college football playoff, which would come with a first-round bye. Uh, they also want to secure a berth in the SEC championship game. Uh, but if you see that, only a 5.5 point spread with Alabama at home, the betting market thinks Oklahoma could be a live underdog in this spot. Oklahoma, this is also an important game for them if they want to hang on to a college football playoff spot. If they do lose to Alabama, probably a pretty strong chance they fall out of the top 12. Uh, so huge game for both teams, huge implications in the SEC, huge implications for the college football playoff. I'm high. On Oklahoma, the Oklahoma Sooners I've been high on them all season. I think they're an underrated team in the betting market, and I think Alabama's slightly overrated. So I'll be taking Oklahoma plus 5.5 and possibly could be an upset pick of the week, but you gotta tune in tomorrow's show. I still have about 24 hours to figure out where I'm going with my upset picks . Oklahoma's a candidate, I'll tell you that much. Uh, another big game in the SEC, Texas against Georgia, Very similar situation for both teams. Georgia is trying to get a berth in the SEC championship game. They need some help though with both Texas A&M undefeated in conference play, Alabama undefeated in conference play. Georgia has a loss, so not only do they need to win this game, they need to hope that either Alabama or Texas A&M, uh, suffers a loss to potentially get Georgia into the SEC championship game. Uh, also still fighting for that first round bye. In the college football playoff at the #5 team, they're 1 ranking outside, uh, the college football playoff in Texas is trying to hang on to a spot in the college football playoff. They cannot afford another loss. If they lose again , they're probably gonna fall out of the top 12 and probably fall out of the college football playoff pitcher. I like Georgia in this game. I know Texas has looked a little bit better in recent weeks compared to how they did at the start of the season, but I still don't trust them. I still don't trust Arch Manning, uh. I think Texas is going to look bad this week. I think Georgia will get the win and the cover. I like that it's at that 6.5 point mark. Uh, that means, uh, if Georgia wins by a touchdown on an extra point, uh, they would cover. So if it goes to the 7, 7.5, I might go a different direction, but at the 6.5 current number, I like the Georgia Bulldogs. Uh, TCU against BYU, uh, this is an important game for BYU who lost to Texas Tech. Their Big 12 championship hopes and their hopes to make the college football playoff are still alive though, if they can get back to the Big 12 conference championship game and get another shot at Texas Tech, but in order for them to do that, they gotta take on a very tough TCU team. Now TCU is only 3-3 in Big 12 play, but they are a dangerous team, uh , led by my preseason Heisman Trophy, uh, bet, who was Josh Hoover. So I like TCU actually getting 5.5 points. I think BYU is gonna stumble, loss, bad loss to Texas Tech last week, and I think they're gonna continue to fall. I will take unranked TCU to at least keep it close. The spread is 5.5 against the BYU Cougars. Those are the top 4 games for college football. Week 12. Let's move on to the top 4 games for NFL week 11. Uh, we have the Los Angeles Chargers, who are 2.5 point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Big game for the AFC playoff pitcher. The Jaguars got off to an extremely hot start, uh, to the season that was capped off with a win against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football 4 weeks ago, 5 weeks ago, 5. Weeks ago since then they've gone 1 to 3. Their only win has been against the Raiders, so they are in danger of falling out of a playoff spot. The AFC South is already out of reach for them. They need to hold on to a wild card spot , but in order for them to do that, they're going to have to win some games as underdogs, including a game against the LA Chargers who Uh, not only are firmly in the wild card pitcher, but also still in the mix to win at the AFC West. So every single game from here on out is gonna be important for both of those teams. I, like the Chargers, I've been calling the Jaguars frauds for the past few weeks. Trevor Lawrence, one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL so far this season. Uh, he is going to struggle against a Chargers defense that has been elite the past 3 weeks. I will lay the 2.5 points with the Chargers. Seahawks Rams might be the game I am looking forward to the most all season. Uh, these two teams have established themselves as two of the best in the NFL. In fact, in DVOA, that advanced statistic that a lot of people like, these two teams are #1 and #2, the top two, top 2 teams in DVOA. Not only that, they're both in the NFC West. The winner of this game will be in first place in the division and to take over as the betting favorite to win the division, and winning that division obviously comes with home field advantage, at least in the first round of the NFC playoffs. Also could, depending on how other things Shao turn into a first-round by. I've been, I've been saying for a long time, the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL. I've been saying it the past few weeks. I bet on them to win the Super Bowl a few weeks ago. I'm gonna ride with the Seahawks once again as underdogs. Against the LA Rams. Speaking of divisional games, big divisional game against the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos, the Broncos enter week 11 as the betting favorites to win the AFC West, uh, but it is impossible to count out the Kansas City Chiefs. Well, yes, the record is not great so far this season, uh , but it is funny because last year they were 15-2 on the season, but their metrics were good, not great. This year their metrics are extremely good, way better than they were in the past two seasons, uh, but they don't have as. Good of a record. Uh, that happens in only a seventeen-game season. You win a couple of games you didn't deserve to win, uh, or you lose a couple of games you did deserve to win. Things get a little bit crazy. So the Chiefs, I'm gonna take them against the Broncos, who Bo Nix and the Broncos offense, not good this season. It has been ugly for Bo Nix and the Broncos' offense. Meanwhile, Chiefs' offense has looked as good as it has the past few seasons, uh, and I think they'll get back in the mix to win the AFC West. Sunday Night Football is a doozy one as well. Great slate of NFL games this coming week, uh, which is good cause we kind of had back to back weeks of not so great games. Lions against the Eagles, Lions, very slight underdogs. Eagles looking to win again after beating the Packers on Monday Night Football. Now they return to primetime Sunday Night Football to take on the Detroit Lions. I'm not sold on the Eagles. They have some issues offensively, we saw it. Last night, I know their defense played well last night, but the defense has had some issues this season. I think the Lions are much more of a complete team this season, and everyone knows how good the Lions' offense is, how efficient they are, how dynamic they are. Not enough people are talking about how good the Lions' defense has been. They have had the best defense in the Dan Campbell era, top 5 in defense of DVOA, top 10 in both. opponent EPA and opponent success rate, uh, people need to realize how good this Lions defense is, and they're able to complement their elite offense . So, uh, I'm very high on the, on the Detroit Lions. I will take them plus 1.5 against the Philadelphia Eagles. This has been a fun little preview, a quick little preview of this week's football action. College Football week 12, NFL week 11. Uh, yeah, it's gonna be a fun one. We've been talking about the NFL awards race, uh, so far this season, and obviously the biggest award is NFL MVP and there are 3 obvious choices above the rest through the 1st 10 weeks. It is, uh, Matt Stafford, it is Drake May, unfortunately, and it is Jonathan Taylor, so I took to Twitter, uh, a little poll on Twitter this morning. I wanted to find out, uh , who you guys think is the best bet to win NFL MVP. So maybe not who you think, uh, is the NFL MVP. The first half of the season, but who is the best bet right now to do it? Uh, and this is the poll right here. We have Drake May 3 to 1, Matt Stafford, 3 to 1, Jonathan Taylor , 5 to 1, and someone else, we'll see if some people reply. Uh, but the most popular option, uh, to, uh, in terms of a best bet is that Jonathan Taylor at 5 to 1.42% of the people voted on JT at 5 to 1. Now, maybe people just voted him saying he's the best bet because he has the longest odds of the three. Or maybe they think he's the most deserving. Uh, unfortunately, Patriots fans, uh, Drake May, uh, is looked at as the worst bet, uh, of these three, at 3 to 1, 15.3%. Matt Stafford at 3 to 1, 29.3%. You do have to think about the narrative when it comes to Matt Stafford, to be fair, which is, he's obviously been. One of the best quarterbacks of this generation, he has one Super Bowl ring. One thing he has not done though, is win an NFL MVP. So, will the voters give him the award as a little bit of a career achievement? Certainly gotta think about that narrative. I also asked if there's someone else, and 13.4% of people voted someone else. I did get two replies and I. To agree with them. Uh, our guy Colby Marciio, who we've talked to on the show a few times, says Sam Darnold at 10 to 1. Trey at_3 deuce also says Sam Darnold, uh, in terms of someone else. I agree. I think Sam Darnold, if you're looking for someone outside of these top 3 guys, is probably the player, but I think. Uh, there's just too many other guys on that team that are gonna get credit, including Jackson Smith Njigba, who's 2nd on the odds list to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Mike McDonald, who's 3rd on the odds list to win Coach of the Year. So I just think the credit is going to other players and coaches more than it's going to Sam Darnold at this point. Uh, now he could still win it if he gets, uh, extremely hot in the 2nd half of the season. Uh, but I don't know if he is the best bet at this point anymore. I do think it's probably gonna come down to one of these three guys. So I wanted to dive into this a little bit deeper. I actually, uh, dove into some numbers to, uh, compare some analytics. So first of all, let's compare, uh, the two quarterbacks who are up for the award, who are the two co-favorites, Drake May and Matt Stafford. Um, metrics, to be fair, do favor, uh, Drake May in terms of the passing numbers. He has completed 71.7% of passes, more than Matt Stafford at 67.1, uh, but 100 more passing yards, 8.9 yards per pass attempt for Drake May. Woo. Uh, and that has been his biggest strength, has been his unbelievable deep ball this season. Stafford. Just averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt. But where Matt Stafford gets the advantage is, touchdowns and interceptions, 25 touchdown passes to Drake Mays, 19. Also only 2 interceptions to Drake Mays, 5 interceptions, which of course, uh, you would, uh, kind of expect with a young quarterback, he's gonna make a few more mistakes, uh, back there. But I think what might be the most important thing is what I brought up earlier. The narrative behind Matt Stafford never winning an MVP, he probably deserves one. He's been good enough to win NFL MVP, so maybe the voters look at that. Uh, at his age, it's probably his last chance to win NFL MVP. If it is close, that narrative, I think legitimately, as stupid as it might sound, I do think narratives play a role in, uh, MVP voting across basically all sports. Uh, in terms of Jonathan Taylor, how I wanted to compare. Things were Jonathan Taylor's season so far this year compared to the last non-quarterback to win NFL MVP because obviously, that's what it's gonna come down to is, can he do enough to win it as a running back. We haven't seen it since Adrian Peterson back in 2012 won NFL MVP. So I brought up some numbers here to compare these two guys' seasons. They are averaging exactly the same amount of yards per carry, 6 yards per carry. That's what Adrian Peterson averaged uh in 2012. That's what Jonathan Taylor is averaging so far this year. You know what's shocking to me that I would never have guessed in a million years? Adrian Peterson only scored 12 rushing touchdowns that year, 13 overall touchdowns. How did he win MVP? Only 13 touchdowns. I guess it's the fact that he ran for over 2000 yards. Uh, so at that point, you kinda had to give the MVP to a rusher who averaged that many yards, but it's shocking to see a guy can, can get 2,097 yards, only 13 touchdowns though. so Jonathan Taylor already has 3 more touchdowns than Adrian Peterson did in his MVP season. Uh, so, I mean, if he keeps this pace, on pace for 2000 yards, on pace for double the amount of touchdowns as Adrian Peterson, maybe, maybe Jonathan Taylor can finally break the streak. Uh, so I think I have to agree. Jonathan Taylor right now is the best bet to win NFL MVP at 5 to 1. Hello friends. Welcome to the Tuesday Golf Corner, the most profitable segment of this show since we started the show a couple of months ago. I gave you Marco Penge at 20 to 1. Uh, about a month ago, and now this past weekend, Ben Griffin at 13 to 1 to win the Worldwide Technology championship. Uh, he cashed that bet for us on Sunday, so that was a fun little winner for the Tuesday golf corner. Let's see if we can keep the momentum going and win another golf pick this week. Uh, we're gonna start on the PGA Tour, uh, who is heading down to Bermuda. Uh, when I wrote my article, I was gonna say they're going down the Caribbean. Bermuda, not part of the Caribbean technically, uh, so I learned something new every day. Uh, to north, I believe, for the Caribbean. Regardless, this is the Bermuda championship. It is one of the worst fields you'll see on the PGA Tour, you know it's bad when, uh, Rico Hui is the betting favorite. At 19 to 1. Um, yeah, you, if you, unless you're a hardcore golf fan, you probably don't even know who Rico who he is. Uh, he's a favorite in 19 to 1. I'm not gonna be betting on the favorite this week. Uh, let's start with my number one best bet, who is Matt Kuchar, old man Koch. I'm gonna take him to win this week at 30 to 1. Uh, he has not played the Bermuda championship in the past, but the reason why I like him this week, uh, is you don't need to be long off the tee. As long as you're good everywhere else, you're gonna be OK. And Matt Kuchar at his old age, uh, can't drive the ball as long as he used to, but that's not gonna hurt him this week, and Uh, Koch, quietly playing some really consistent golf of late. T18 or better in 33 straight starts, dating back to the Pro Core championship in September. He's also coming off a T11 finish at last week's Worldwide Technology Championship. So, his lack of distance is not gonna hurt him this week, that's a plus. His recent form is a plus. And he's also 4th in the field this week in true strokes gained approach over the past 6 months, and he's the only, uh, golfer on the top 10 of that list, who is also gaining strokes around the greens and on the greens with his putting and his chipping. So I think Matt Kuchar, I think he checks a lot of boxes for us this week. Uh, maybe he can get, uh, 1 more win. On the PGA Tour, uh, before he heads over to the Champions Tour, cause he's, he's getting up there in age , old man Koch. We love Kucher, uh, but he's, he's getting a little old. But I'm gonna bet him to get one more win here at 30 to 1 this weekend. Uh, my long shot pick, this might, uh , sound like a familiar name because I'm going with the same guy who was my long shot pick last week. That is Ben Coles. Uh, he finished T63 last week, but we'll forgive him cause Ben Griffin won for us. But I just can't resist betting on a guy, especially in a significantly weaker field this week than last week, a guy whose approach game is this good. He has gained 1.05 true strokes per round with his irons over the past six months. That is 0.29 better than any other golfer in the field this week. 00.29 doesn't sound significant, but trust me, it is. That's. A lot of strokes, better than any other golfer in the field for Coles to gain with his irons, uh, per round. So, what we need from Ben Coles is we need him to hit a freaking putt. Uh, the guy can't putt, but, uh, the old adage I always follow when betting on golf, it is much better to bet on a golfer who's a great ball striker and hope that he gets hot putting than it is to bet on a good putter and hope they get hot with their ball striking, because good ball strikers will randomly have good putting performances. Ben Coles can even be average on the greens this week. Uh, he's gonna be able to do a lot of damage with his iron. So I'll take Ben Coles at 100 to 1 worth a sprinkle, couple bucks on Ben Coles to win at 100 to 1 this week. We also have some action, uh, on the DP World Tour. It is their championship. This is their final event of the DP World season. Uh, it is the, uh, over in Abu Dhabi. Uh, so this event, you're gonna see a lot more names that you're gonna recognize, including the. Betting favorite, Rory McIlroy, we all know and love the Masters champion, Rory McIlroy. He is 380 to win this week. He has won this event plenty of times in the past. It makes a lot of sense why he's that big of a favorite, but I'm not betting a 380 favorite to win a golf event. Instead, I'm gonna look for Ludwig Oberg, who is 1300, so 13 to 1 to win this week. This is a very long course , measuring at over 7500 yards. So we needed some guy who is long off the tee, and we should. We all know by now, Ludwig Oberg, very long off the tee, uh, top 5 in driving distance heading into this week. Also, uh, his irons have been a lot, uh, better lately. Uh, and actually over the past 3 months, he's gaining strokes in all 4 major areas on the greens, around the greens approach, and off the tee. So, Ludwig Oberg, uh, would typically this season be around 13 to 1 to win a PGA Tour event with a much better field. With a weaker field, yes, it's top-heavy, but overall a weaker field, and he's still at 33. 13 to 1. I think there is some value on the Swede, and my long shot to win the DP World Tour championship is Daniel Brown at 75 to 1. I went to school with a Daniel Brown. It is not this guy. I did not go to school with an English professional golfer, but I did go to school with a Daniel Brown. Anyways, regardless, his approach play has been top-notch of late, uh, second in the field in true strokes gain approach over the past three months, so his irons have been very good. I think that can convert uh some holes into birdie holes form. And if your irons are that good, as long as the rest of your game is solid, you're always gonna be in the mix at a golf event, especially one with a top-heavy field that we have this week. So it's 75 to 1. I'll take a shot on Daniel Brown as a long shot, dark horse contender to win this week's DP World Tour championship. This has been the Tuesday Golf corner. Let's aim for back to back outright winners. We're venturing off the betting path a little bit here. It is a sport that we all know and love, soccer, but I am going to bet on some Women's Champions League, which is not a sport, or a league I should say , that has been talked about on this show just quite yet, so certainly I've bet on stranger leagues and sports, but, uh, I really like this bet. Uh, so this is a Wednesday afternoon match in the Women's Champion League, it is, Uh, 20, do you just pronounce it 20, plus 180 against SL Benfica. Uh, Scott Trivia, where, what country is, uh, 20 from? 22, Italy. No, uh, Netherlands, they are a Dutch team taking on Benfica. Portugal close . I'll give you half a point for that. Uh, yeah, so some Women's Champions League action here on Wednesday afternoon. The reason why I like this bet, we all know I'm not a soccer expert by any means, uh, but I do like to look at expected goals. I can at least look at that. It's a very similar stat that I look at, uh, for the National Hockey League. And so far in Women's Champions League action, 20, I'm just gonna say 20, that might be wrong, but 20. Uh, has an expected goal differential of +1.05. That is the fifth-best mark amongst how many teams or 50 Women's Champions League teams. Uh, so a little bit of an underrated team here from the Netherlands, and they will take on Benfica, who was far down the rankings in expected goals at -0.68 expected goals per game. So despite Uh, the fact that 20 has been much better from an expected goals, uh, perspective, uh, Benfica is set as the favorite. So I'll take a shot on 20 as a slight underdog here. Uh, to win in regulation is a three-way money line, uh, odds here. So plus 180, I need 20 to win in regulation against Benfica, and Wednesday's, uh, Women's Champions League action. Rough night on Monday for my picks, uh, and it's a big night too, cause I had $150 to bet, uh, to celebrate the 50th episode of the show, and I went 1 and 3, not good, thankfully, I was on Jalen Hurts under 27.5 rushing yards, he finished with 27. So we are 1 yard away from going 0 and 4, but a win is a win no matter how close it is. Uh, so that does, uh, end up being a 1 and 3 night, still a big losing night. Uh, thankfully though, because Jalen Hurts didn't get 1 more rushing yard. We are still positive for the season, but, uh, I can't afford another losing night. We are at a profit of just $21.74 on the season. Uh oh. That's, that makes me nervous. Uh, we've been profitable now for a long time, it feels like, it feels like, what, a month and a half we've been profitable, at least. Uh, so we, we, we have to win tonight, cause if we lose, You know, more than $21.74 tonight, we're gonna be in the negative again. Um, so, let's get in my picks for tonight, a little bit of everything tonight, I got a bet. On college football, I bet on college basketball, and two bets on the National Hockey League. Oh, yeah, and just to quickly recap, lost the over in Packers Eagles. That wasn't even close, and both my NHL bets weren't even close either. I think Rangers, Predators, I bet the under finished 6-3, uh, and the, uh, the over between the Islanders and Devils finished, I think 3-2 in overtime. So, um, 0 and 2 in the NHL 10 1 in the NFL. Let's try to bounce back tonight. That's all we can do is, uh, move forward to tonight's action. Uh, we're gonna start with the action bet, uh, that I teased earlier in the show. Kent State and Akron, I will go under 46.5 minus 115. Uh, I said how bad these teams are, but especially, they are bad on the offensive side of the football. 124th and 127th in adjusted EPA per play, 119th and 130th in success rate. The two offenses in this game combined for just 35.6 points per game this season. Uh, their defenses, certainly not elite, but their defenses are better. They're a little bit more to the middle of the pack, uh, in the country, uh, in terms of defensive advanced metrics. Their offensive ones, as I just listed, bottom 10, bottom 20 in the country. So it's a bad game between two bad teams with horrific offenses. 46.5 is a relatively low total in college football, but I think it should be even lower. So I'll go under 46.5 minus 115 between Kent State and Akron. Um, I'm also gonna bet on college basketball. It's a very fun game tonight. It is the Battle of Kentucky. I'm sure there's a difference. Name for this rivalry game, but it is the Kentucky Wildcats taking on the Louisville Cardinals, uh, Louisville, I believe is how they pronounce it. Um, I will take the Kentucky Wildcats getting 4.5 points plus 4.5 here at -110. If you're not familiar with college basketball and handicapping college basketball and betting on college basketball, Uh, there's a guy who goes by Ken Palm, who comes out with ratings, uh, all year, every year that are used basically as gospel by people who try to determine which teams are good. I know they're used a lot in determining the seating in the March Madness bracket as well. Uh, I've been very anti-Ken Palm over the years cause I'm like, who's this bum? Why, why does he know more than me? I'll come up with my own rankings. How about that, Ken Palm? Uh, well, this year, Uh, surprisingly, that strategy has not worked for me in years past. This year, maybe I'll rely on Ken Palm a little bit more. And the reason why I bring him up, uh, is that Kentucky is the #1 ranked team in the country in Ken Palm. So, uh, obviously, a little bit different rankings than the AP poll rankings in Ken Palm, Kentucky, best team in the country according to those rankings. Louisville is number 12, uh, but despite That, uh, Louisville is favored in this game. So I don't know if that lines up with those famous Ken Palm rankings. According to the Ken Palm rankings, Louisville is especially bad defensively, 36th in net defensive rating. Uh, so I will take the points with Kentucky plus 4.5, uh, against the Louisville Cardinals in some college basketball action. A very fun college basketball game and could have some implications, uh, for some March Madness seeding as well. Uh, then switching over to the ice for the NHL. I'm gonna take my Toronto Maple Leafs. I don't know why I'm doing this. This is stupid, but I'm gonna take the Maple Leafs to beat the Boston Bruins -134 on the money line. I know the Bruins just beat the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Saturday. This game is now in Boston. Uh, and I know the Bruins were able to win that game, but I do have to look at some season-long metrics. And I know the Bruins aren't on a six-game winning streak, but I think it's time to sell your stock in this Boston team. They're still 30th in the NHL in expected goal differential, 31st in high danger scoring chance differential, which means, uh, their opponents get an average of 3.72 more high danger scoring chances than the Bruins do. It's simply not. A sustainable way to continue to win games. Uh, and the Bruins, uh, do have lack a little bit, uh, offensively in terms of creating high dangerous scoring chances. And that is how you can attack this Leafs team as they have been horrific in their own ends. So maybe Boston doesn't quite have the ability to exploit the biggest weakness for the Maple Leafs. So I'll take the, uh, Maple Leafs -134 against the Bruins tonight. I'll also take the Seattle Kraken-120. Against the Blue Jackets. Uh, I don't know why they're only slight favorites on their home ice. The Blue Jackets are in the 2nd leg of a back to back. They played last night. And also the metrics just support this Kraken team. 14th in expected goal differential. The Blue Jackets are 25th. The Blue Jackets get a ton of shots on goal, but not a lot of quality shots, uh, which is gonna mean a lot in the second leg of a back to back tonight. So I'll take the Kraken a slight home favorites, minus 120 tonight. Those are my picks. Let's take a look in the safe. I hope it's not $150 because, uh, that'll make me nervous. Me, hopefully it's just the normal $100 for tonight. I should have just put $20 in there. Yeah, that would have been nice, yeah, so I could have just made sure that we stayed in the profit, but no, it is, uh, we got $100. We got $100 tonight. I, I feel good. I feel good about tonight. I think we can take a step in the right direction after a losing weekend and a losing Monday night. Uh, I think I just go with what worked for me, what brought me all the way up to what, what was our highest mark, like 221 or something? Did we hit 300? Uh, my strategy of 30, 30, 20/20. I take my two confident plays, $30 on each, my two, plays where I'm a little less confident, $20 each. And of course, because of how good I've done in the NHL, uh, not good last night, 0 and 2 last night, but overall, I've had a very good NHL betting season. So I'll go $30 on the Maple Leafs, $30 on the Kraken, and then $20 on the two college games, uh, $20 in Kent State Akron under 46.5 minus $115.20 dollars in Kentucky plus 4.5 minus $110. Uh, those are my picks for tonight. This has been, uh, Play It Safe, presented by FanDuel. Stick around because we do still have my three-leg parlay of the day. Let's wrap up the show with the parlay of the day. Uh, did not hit the three-leg parlay last night, so we're 0 and 1 on three-leg parlays. Not only did I not hit the parlay last night, 0 and 3. He could have just done the opposite. It would have been actually a much better parlay. Romeo Dobbs had one catch. The over obviously didn't hit, even though we bought a few points, brought it down to 40.5. Uh, and Saquon Barkley did not score a touchdown. Uh 0 and 3 on the three-leg parlay. Let's move on to my second attempt on the. Three-leg parlay as we try to climb up the parlay peak. I'd like to get all the way up to seven legs by the end of 2025. Can I do it? Probably not, but I'm gonna try. All right, three-leg parlay, uh, across two different sports, uh, for tonight. We're gonna start with the NBA. Uh, our Toronto Raptors are taking on the Brooklyn Nets, uh, and I'm gonna take RJ Barrett. Uh, I have an RJ Barrett Knicks jersey that I'm gonna wear on the show one of these days. RJ Barrett. 2 + 3s. So he needs to get at least 2 3-pointers. uh, the odds on that single bet is -172. Remember, I need to make all the legs at least -250 or longer cause I need to make it at least a little bit of a challenge, cause I could just do a 3-leg parlay minus 1000 legs and I'd win it every time. RJ Bear 2 + 3s, taking on the. Brooklyn Nets, who cannot defend the perimeter, the worst, uh, uh, dead last in the NBA in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. So let's just get RJ Barrett. I think there's another team in there. Uh, 2 or more 3-point shots, and then we're switching over to the ice. Two big favorites in the NHL. We're taking on, uh, the Minnesota Wild. Or -210 against the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks continue to stink. Um, bottom 5, bottom three, in almost every single metric, I think the Wild at home can get the job done. And also the Avalanche, Avs are -235 against the Anaheim Ducks. I know the Anaheim Ducks have been red hot to start the season, uh, but they are in over their head on the road against the Colorado Avalanche team who has been just as good, if not better. Uh, and the Ducks have been winning because of a high shooting percentage, so it's not exactly a sustainable way to win games, especially against the elite teams in the National Hockey League. So that is my three-leg parlay. The odds of that come out to + 232 at FanDuel, of course, odds are subject to change. They will shift slightly between when I'm recording this and when the game starts tonight, but it'll be around +232 at the end of the day. So RJ Barrett, 2 or more 3-point shots against the Nets, the Wild -210 against the Sharks, and the Colorado Avalanche -235 against uh the Anaheim Ducks. That is my three-leg parlay for tonight as we try to climb the parlay peak . Uh, thank you for tuning in to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Best of luck to all of your bets tonight, and I will see you all tomorrow.