Making Moves | November 12, 2025

I have some bad news, my friends. We are in the negative for the first time in a month and a half, but that's OK, we're gonna turn things around tonight. Welcome to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac, presented by FanDuel. It is Wednesday, which means we have upset picks in the NFL, upset picks in college football, and we're gonna take a look at the playoff pitcher. All that and more coming up. Let's take a look at the top headlines in the sports betting world, starting with our rapid fire update. Starting in the NBA, the Dallas Mavericks have fired their general manager, Nico Harrison. Uh, if you remember, he was the guy who traded away Luka Doncic to the Lakers last season, uh, which was an extremely controversial move. The Mavericks then did get the number one overall pick, which turned into Cooper Flagg, uh, but things have not worked out for them so far this season. 3. And 8 start to the year. Uh, and now they are plus 120 just to even make the play in plus 240 to make the playoffs. So the Mavericks have moved on from the GM less than a year after trading the biggest superstar they've had, uh, since Dirk Nowitzki. So, uh, Mavericks moving on from Nico Harris and Mavericks return to action tonight. They will host, uh, the Phoenix Suns. Uh, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a broken. Hockey team, uh, I don't know why I bet on them tonight. That was, or last night, that was stupid of me. I watched that game. I don't know if I've ever seen a team more broken than the Toronto Maple Leafs. Their goaltender stinks. They can't play defense, they're out of sync. Uh, their stars are getting points, but, uh, they, they're not playing good on defense, they're not playing like a unit, they're not playing with any heart, any fire. Uh, they are, the Blue Jays were everything that the Maple Leafs are not, and that's becoming more evident. Uh, every single night, and now the Maple Leafs are just a coin flip to make the playoffs. I didn't even consider that option heading into the season. I thought the Maple Leafs were gonna be in the playoffs and probably lose in the first or second round like they always do. Uh, but now, just -110 odds to make the playoffs, -110 odds to miss the playoffs. Uh, there, I know there are. Some advanced analytics sites out there. I saw one that have the Maple Leafs only a 38% chance of making the NHL postseason. Not good. Bad news here in Toronto. Looks like my Falcons are dead, my Maple Leafs are dead, which means to me, it's already the 2026 MLB season, cause that's the next thing I have to look forward to at this point. Uh, Louisville Cardinals, there was another loss by me last night. I took Kentucky, Louisville won. And covered by a few points. Uh, they have now jumped up to 17 to 1 to win the college basketball national championship after that very impressive win against Kentucky. A Kentucky team who I talked about yesterday was number one in the Ken Palm rankings and, uh, ranked in the AP poll as well. Uh, so. Big win by Louisville. That was the game of the night in college basketball, up to 17 to 1 to win the national championship. That is good for 6th on the odds list behind Houston, Kentucky, who is still at 11 to 1, Duke, Purdue, and UConn at 13 to 1, and then Louisville coming in at 17 to 1. Western Michigan took down Ohio in last night's action , 17 to 13. That should have been the game that I should have bet the under on, not the one that had 60+ points scored in. Uh, I picked the wrong game. Uh, so Western Michigan with that big win against Ohio, they are now the favorites to win, uh, the MAC conference. Uh, so that, but that conference is still kind of anyone's to win, at least the top 4 teams on the odds list, uh, can win, uh, that. Conference, uh, and then we also got, uh, Ty Simpson, by the way, and I talked about these odds early in the season, but, uh, there are odds on FanDuel for who's going to be the number one overall pick in the NFL draft. Ty Simpson is now the favorite to be the number one overall pick at 170. That is if the top team, the team that gets the first overall pick, uh, needs a quarterback, which may not necessarily end up, uh, being the case, uh, the. They're not that bad. They're not gonna have the 1st overall pick, and they don't need a quarterback. Uh, yeah, but if they're, oh God, I hate my Falcons. They might have the 1st overall pick, they might not win another game. Uh, Ty Simpson is the favorite, Fernando Mendoza, 2nd on the odds list, Dante Moore, 3rd on the odds list. I think the value is gonna be on Ruben Bain at 750. He's a pass rusher for Miami. He is by far, at least, uh, early reports, still a lot of time between now and April, but from earlier reports. By far the best defensive player, the best non-quarterback. So if you think, uh, a team is gonna get the first overall pick who doesn't need a quarterback, I think Ruben Bain Junior, uh, makes the most sense. I'm trying to think of a team who would not take a quarterback who's bad this year. Um. I don't know. I can't think of one off the top of the head, but there's gotta be, who, who just drafted a core ? I don't know. There's gotta be, no, I was gonna say the Bears, but they're a playoff team. There's gotta be a team out there that stinks. I'm gonna think about it by the end of the show, uh, who would not take a quarterback. If they do get the first overall pick, uh, maybe they go Ruben Bain Junior, uh, out of. Miami. Uh, we got some MLB news. Yes, the season is over. Yes, the Blue Jays still lost the World Series. Yes, I'm still grieving that World Series loss. I think about it probably 72 times a day, and it feels like a gut punch every time I do. Uh, things got worse for Jays fans last night because John Schneider, whoever, everyone. I thought it was a shoo-in to win AL Manager of the Year. I mean, he took a team who was projected to finish last in the division all the way up to, uh, 2 outs away from the World Series. He did not win Manager of the Year. Instead, they gave it to Steven Vacht for the 2nd straight year. Uh, the Guardians who did not make it out of the, uh, wild card round. Uh, so Steven Vt, the, uh, Manager of the Year in the American League, Pat Murphy, uh, I think who we all knew was gonna win National League Manager of the Year. He's the manager for the Brewers. Uh, I don't recall FanDuel actually posting odds for Manager of the Year specifically, so I don't remember what those, what the odds for those players or managers would have been. I can guarantee you that Steven Vaughtt would not have been the favorite heading into last night's. Uh, award selection. Everyone thought it was gonna be John Schneider, if not him, it's gonna be the Mariners' manager, but no, they give it to the same guy for two years in a row, which is very rare, uh, in Major League Baseball. Uh, I do have some good news for the Blue Jays though. Uh, depending on where you live, if you live in Canada, you can bet on this. Some select states, you can bet on this. But, uh, in some areas, FanDuel does have odds posted for what team Boba. Bechette will sign with in the offseason. And right now, as I speak, the Blue Jays are the -210 favorites to bring Bobachett back to Toronto. Thank God. Uh, -210, uh, it translates to an implied probability of 67.74%. So about, uh, 2/3 chance that Bobachett does return to Toronto, which would be huge for the Blue Jays' chances to go on another deep playoff run. Uh, next season. Remember, this guy was 2nd in the majors in hits, and he missed the last 34 weeks of the regular season. So, uh, reports are indicating Bobachett might come back to Toronto in the odds. Uh, the betting market does agree with that, -210 for Bobachett to come back to the Blue Jays. Come on, Bo, come home, buddy. We, we, we got more work to do. We got a World Series to win. We've already seen some significant line movements for this weekend's NFL action, so let's take a look at the biggest ones, which will give us an indication of maybe where the pro bettors, the sharp bettors are putting their money. Starting with the Thursday Night Football game. Between the Jets and the Patriots, this game opened up at Patriots -10.5 on Sunday night and moved to 11.5 on Monday. And if you remember on Monday's show, I believe I gave you the Patriots a -11.5. Well, since then, it has moved another point up to Patriots -12.5. Uh, no injury. On either end. Uh, so this is a sign that the sharp betters, the professional betters, the ones who do this for a living, certainly not me, uh, are taking, uh, the Patriots. So that is a pretty significant line movement, 2 points between Sunday night and today ahead of tomorrow night's, uh, NFL Week 11 opener in the AFC East between the Patriots and the Jets. We also saw a half point movement between the Vikings and the Bears, but I've talked about this before, not all half points are created equal. This is a significant half point. Uh, the Vikings are at home. They will open up at -2.5, is at -2.5 on Monday, but, uh, as of today, Wednesday, it's up to -3, uh, which is a significant move because that 3 mark is a very key number, the most, uh, popular and frequent. Uh, point differential in an NFL game is 3 points, so to go from -2.5 to -3 is very significant. The betting market seems to trust, uh, 9 this week, JJ McCarthy as he hosts Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. I don't blame him. I kind of like the Vikings too. As much as I don't like JJ McCarthy, Bears, not nearly as good as a record, continue to find ways to barely beat really bad teams, including their comeback win against the Giants last week. Uh, we saw a move on a total. You don't usually see significant big moves on totals in NFL games unless there's injury news. Uh, but the total in the Bills and the Buccaneers has dropped 2 whole points from 49.5 down to 47.5. Once again, no injuries. Uh, so the betting market, the pro bettors, the sharp bets think that total was set way too high. And I tend to agree the Buccaneers' defense has quietly been one of the best in the NFL. Uh, the past few weeks. I actually took the under 49.5 on Monday. I would not bet the under at the new number. Uh, so I have a different bet for Buccaneers, Bills, which I will give out later in the show, so stick around for that. Uh, we also have a point movement in the Ravens, uh, down from -8.5 down to -7.5. Uh, maybe the betting market is not quite as convinced that the Ravens are back. To being as good as they were early, uh, or as good as they were expected to be, and then they weren't good early in the season. Now they've won 3 straight games since their byeweek. Uh, so maybe the betting market not bought fully back in on the Ravens, or maybe it's that Browns defense led by both the defensive Rookie of the Year favorite and the Defensive Player of the Year favorite. Uh, so maybe they think the Browns defense can keep that game. Uh, closer than the 8 points. So that's down to -7.5. And the Sunday Night Football game between the Eagles and the Lions, the game of the week, uh , the Eagles were 1.5 point favorites before their Monday night game against the Packers. They then went on to beat the Packers in an absolute stinker by a score of 10 to 7. Uh, Maybe, uh, that defensive performance was enough to convince betters that they should be bigger favorites against the Lions because the line has moved from -1.5 to -2.5, uh, against Detroit on Sunday Night Football. Now, yes, that is a full point, uh, but I will, uh, point out that it's not actually a super significant. Uh, move, you don't see a huge difference between a team having to win by 2, or by 3. Now if it jumps to 3, if it takes another half point move forward, uh, then that's gonna be extremely significant. But, uh , still, even if it's not a super significant move, still a sign showing. Uh, that the betting market does believe in this Eagles team against the Lions and what could end up being an NFC championship game preview. Action continues tonight, 2 games last night, 3 games tonight. I know I've said a lot of these midweek games that, uh, we have a toilet bowl ahead of us. Uh, nothing compares to the game we have, uh, ahead of us tonight. Northern Illinois against UMass. We know UMass is the worst team in the country, but Northern Illinois. Not much better. Uh, so if you're, if you want to watch some ugly football, uh, tune into that game tonight. Uh, in Northern Illinois, despite being not much better than UMass, an 11.5 point favorite, that's just how bad UMass is. The over-under for that game is 43.5. I have a pick for this game. Uh, maybe I'm a bit of a masochist, uh, betting on the worst college football game we'll watch all season, but I do have a bet for this game, but guess what? You gotta stick around till the end of the show. To get it. Uh, we also have a game between Buffalo and Central Michigan. Uh, that one should be pretty good. Maybe not the best teams, uh, ever, but, uh, a very close matchup at least, at least indicated by the point spread. Uh, Central Michigan set as a 1.5 point favorite in that game over under 44.5. And then we have, in my opinion, the best football game of the night is Toledo -3.5 against Miami, Ohio. Uh, over-under for that game, 45.5. If you remember, Toledo was one of my best bets of the week last week, uh, and they won and covered against, I don't remember who was it, Akron or someone. Uh, they covered big in that game. Uh, will I be on Toledo again tonight? Once again, stick around till the end of the show. So I have two bets for tonight's action. Uh, I will give them out at the end of the show. Uh, one for the Toledo game, which should be fun against Miami, Ohio, and then one in the worst college football game you could potentially watch this season, Northern Illinois. And UMass. Every Wednesday, I like to look at the playoff standings at the moment, using the betting odds to help us determine who is going to play in the postseason. Let's look at the AFC. I've been talking about this the past few weeks, but the playoff pitcher, more clear than I think I've ever seen it at this point in the season, just barely halfway through the year, and we basically already know the 14 playoff. Teams, uh, for the most part, but, uh, in the AFC there could be some slight changes. Uh, but if you're looking out of there now, the Colts are the number 1 seed, -2000 to make the playoffs. Broncos right now would be the number 2 seed. They are currently leading the AFC West. The Patriots, uh, leading the AFC East, -8000, the biggest favorite. Uh, amongst all AFC teams, must be nice Patriots fans. Uh, not only do they have a, uh, great record, of course, they also have an extremely easy schedule to close things out. So, uh, listen, if you want to lay $8000 to win $100 if you have the money, the means to do that, uh, it, it, I don't see how that loses. I mean, of course it can, anything could happen, but, uh, minus $8000 I can certainly see the Patriots are gonna be in the playoffs one way or another. Will they win the AFC East? That's the big question surrounding the Patriots at this point of the season. The Steelers, who are right now the number 4 seed because they're winning the AFC North, plus 184, the oddsmakers do not have faith in the Steelers holding on to the lead in that division. Of course, only 1 game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens right now, and they still have 2 games against the Ravens, uh, this season. So, uh, don't get too excited, Steelers fans right now. The playoffs started today, you'd be in, but, uh, the betting odds don't have a lot of faith. Then you have the Chargers at -385 after beating the Steelers this past Sunday. That was an important game for both teams. Uh, it's gonna be tough for them to win the AFC West, but they will at the very least, uh, look like they're gonna get a wild card berth. The Bills -1300 coming in the number 6 seed, and then the Jaguars barely hanging on to the number 7 seed, uh, but they are +136 to make the NFL playoffs at this point in the season. Massive game for playoff implications set to take place this week. Week between the Chargers and the Jaguars. Big one, especially for the Jaguars. Almost a near must-win if they want to hang on to a playoff spot. So you're looking at those and you see, uh, hey, 2+ money teams who are currently in a playoff spot. Why is that? Well, that's because you have the Kansas City Chiefs right outside the playoffs right now in the number 8 seed at -650. Yeah, sure, they don't have as good of a record, uh, to be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but they're the Kansas City Chiefs. It's Patrick Mahomes, it's Andy Reid, they're coming off a bye. Uh, they have a relatively easy schedule to close things out. Big game for them in Denver this weekend, uh, but still, you can expect the Chiefs to likely be in the playoffs, -650 they still are to make, uh, the playoffs, which is an implied probability of 86.87, uh, 67%. So, pretty good chance the Chiefs, uh, will return, uh, to the NFL playoffs. And then you have the Texans plus 350 outside chance for them. And then, of course, all the way down to the 10 seed right now, the Ravens, -265. That is how much faith the betting market has in the Ravens reclaiming the top spot in the AFC North, because right now, despite them being the 10 seed, -265 odds to, uh, to win that division, or not necessarily win that division, but to at least get in the playoffs one way or another, and the most likely route for them to do that would be to win the AFC North. Let's switch over to the NFC, uh, and we have the Eagles who are the biggest favorite amongst all teams to make the playoffs, minus 20,000. Uh, you would have to bet $20,000 on the Eagles to make the playoffs to profit $100. Probably not worth it, although they probably will be in the playoffs, uh. You know, leading that NFC East, uh, there's no other team in that division that's likely gonna catch them. And then even if some crazy thing does happen, they're still good enough to get into a wild card spot. Seahawks have climbed all the way up to the number 2 seed, uh, in that conference. I think I gave the Seahawks out a plus money to make the playoffs back early in the season. So they are now -300 to make the NFC playoffs. The Uh, 3rd best odds to make the playoffs right now. They're currently winning the NFC West. Massive game between them and the Rams, uh, this weekend. Uh, not only to, uh, the winner will be, uh, winning the NFC West and be the NFC West favorite, but also will be in the mix to claim that number 1 seed from the Eagles. And we all know how important the number one seed is nowadays. Not only do you get the first round by, you get home field advantage. The, uh, playoffs. Uh, the Lions right now leading the NFC North, they're -700 to make the playoffs. The Buccaneers, um, not only are the Buccaneers good, but really no other team in the NFC South has unfortunately challenged the Buccaneers. -1200 to make the playoffs. Rams -3500. They might not win the NFC West, but, uh, they will certainly be able to grab a wild card spot. You have the Bears who are still 140, despite them being the number 6 seed currently . They were actually aided, uh, by the Packers losing on Monday Night Football to the Eagles. The Bears now have a better record than the Packers. Uh, unfortunately. The Bears, uh, uh, season, their schedule gets significantly more difficult the rest of the way. Uh, so the betting market is still well in the playoff mix, but plus 140, uh, they are not favorites, uh, to make the playoffs, less than a 50% chance to make the postseason. Packers minus 340 despite two straight losses, but they do have to wake up moving forward. Uh, they gotta beat the Giants. This weekend, uh, and then the 49ers, who are the 8th seed right now minus 255. So, uh, if you go based off the betting odds, it looks like the Bears will fall out, and the 49ers will get back into a playoff spot if things shake out according to the odds. Uh, the Panthers, Vikings still kind of in the mix, but they need a lot of things to go their way. Both plus 490. The Cowboys are the 11 seed plus 880. Uh, we don't have it on the graphic there , but I will mention my Falcons have better odds than the Cowboys, at least. I believe the Falcons are around, uh, 7 to 1 right now to make the playoffs, uh, but they would probably have to catch the Buccaneers in the NFC South. I don't think a wild card spot is in the mix for the Falcons, and to be honest, they're just not gonna be. The playoffs. I think I can finally accept that, uh, as a Falcons fan. So yeah, largely, the playoff pitcher has been decided outside. The Steelers can kind of still get in there in the AFC and the Bears can kind of get in there still in the NFC, uh, but it looks like we have at least our 16 teams who will be in contention. The latest college football playoff rankings were released last night, so let's take a look at those, uh, with the odds next to all the teams. Uh, congratulations to Ohio State fans, Indiana fans, and Texas A&M fans. You're such a favorite to make the college football playoff that FanDuel is taking down your odds. You can't even bet on it. I think you can bet the no if you want to for Texas A&M, uh, but don't do that. Those 3 teams have largely locked up a spot, uh, in the college football playoff. The 3. Only, I think, I believe that the only three undefeated teams left, uh, in college football . Uh, credit to Texas A&M. I thought you were gonna lose this past weekend. Uh, you did not. Uh, Missouri did not even come close. So, credit to the Aggies. They seem like real contenders this season. Then after that, you have Alabama minus 1050, Georgia -2200. I'm a little confused why Georgia has better odds than Alabama. Alabama beat Georgia this year. Uh, they both have one. Loss on the season. I guess Georgia's loss, even though it's to Alabama, is a higher quality loss because Alabama lost to Florida State in week one. But still, both significant favorites to make the college football playoff. I wouldn't be too concerned one way or the other. Texas Tech jumped up to the 6 seed after beating BYU. They're -1500 now to make the college football playoff. I think they've done enough this season. Even if they lose the Big 12 championship game, I think they'll get a spot in the playoff regardless. And the odds. Indicate as such as well. Uh, Ole Miss, -3000. Then things get a little bit interesting. Oregon, -300. They were very lucky to get out of Iowa with a win this past weekend. if they lost that game, things would not be looking quite as good. They're up to the number 8 seed right now. Notre Dame -385. The last kind of scary opponent is gonna be Pitt, uh, this weekend. But, uh, as we see on the board behind us, Oregon is an 11.5 point favorite, so we don't need to concern ourselves too much with that game. Texas plus 18, this is where, this, this is where things get really interesting. Texas plus 186, Oklahoma plus 220, BYU plus 350, Utah 3 to 1, Vanderbilt plus 290 . Now, you know that the top 12 teams make the college football playoff. So if you're looking at this, you'd think Oklahoma and BYU would be in, but you do have to remember about the automatic bids. So, right now, uh, if the season ended today, Oklahoma and BYU would actually be out of the college football playoff because the ACC conference champion would get in, and there's no ACC team currently ranked in the top 12, and also the highest ranked group of 5 team would get in. So that would knock both Oklahoma and BYU. Out of the top 12. So that is why despite being in the top 12, they're both a 220 and 350, uh, respectively to make the college football playoffs. So they still need to do some work if they want to get there. Moving on to some teams that are a little bit further down the odds list, you have Utah 3 to 1, Vanderbilt plus 290, Miami plus 490, Georgia Tech, who is right now the highest ranked ACC team plus 186. They're the favorites to come out of the ACC. They can win that conference, uh, USC plus 320, Michigan plus 6:30. We're getting to some long odds now . Virginia plus 820, they'd have to win the ACC. Louisville, they'd have to win the ACC at 13 to 1. Then you see a little bit of a gap there, uh, and that is because, uh, I did want to include USF on the graphic because as I mentioned, there is gonna be a group of 5 team in the college football playoff. Last week, no group of five team was ranked in the. College football playoff rankings. This week, USF is, they got into the number 24 spot in the rankings. Remember, they beat Florida, uh, at Florida, uh, earlier this season, which was a huge win for them. This tells us if USF wins out, they will likely get that automatic bid that's awarded to a group of 5 teams. So that is why their odds are + 124, uh, slightly less than 50% chance to make the college football playoff. You have teams like. James Madison, who could be in the mix if USF stumbles. You have North Texas, who could potentially get in there if they win, uh, the AAC. Uh, but USF, it is worth noting they are officially ranked in the college football playoff rankings coming in at number 24. Uh, if I had to bet on any team right now to make the college football playoff, it would be Oklahoma, who right now is 220. Yes, I know I mentioned earlier that as of Right now, they would get kicked out of that spot, but they have an extremely important game against Alabama this weekend. They are underdogs in that game, but if they, if they beat Alabama, they will be in the college football playoff almost no matter what happens the rest of the season, unless they lose as a big favorite. Uh, but I like this Sooners team. I think Oklahoma is underrated. I think they're good enough to be in the playoff, and I like their odds at 220 to do exactly that. It is time for me to give you my upset picks of the week, starting in the NFL. I almost went 2-0 with my upset picks in the NFL last week until the Giants blew a 10 point lead with 5 minutes left, but I did hit the Saints to take down the Panthers, which were the bigger of the 2 underdogs anyway, so I'll take it. I'll always go 1 and 1, or I'll always take a 1-1 record with upset picks, uh, cause that'll be a profit every time with those plus money odds. So my picks for this week, I'm gonna start with the Seahawks to defeat the Rams. Plus 138 in this NFC West battle. It is time for me to put my money where my mouth is. I've talked all season, or at least not all season, maybe the past six or seven weeks, that I think the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL. So if you're gonna give me the team that I think is the best team in the NFL at plus money to win, I'm gonna take that every time. They rank 1st in the league in DVOA, 1st in the league in net yards per play. Sam Darnold leads all starting quarterbacks and expected points added plus completion percentage over expected. Now, the argument for the Rams would be that the Rams do lead the Seahawks in some EPA categories, expected points added, but the reason why that is, is because the Rams have had a much better turnover margin, a little bit better turnover luck has gone the Rams' way, uh, which plays a big role in those EPA stats. Uh, usually with turnovers, you see things, uh, kind of even out as the season goes on, and if they do, I more trust the DVOA, the net yards per play that support the season. The Seahawks, uh, being the better team. So the game is in Los Angeles, uh, but the Seahawks have been red hot on the road this season, so that does not scare me away from betting on Seattle. I'll take the Seahawks plus 138 on the money line against the LA Rams. And if you're looking for a little bit of a bigger upset, uh, I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus 220. To upset the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have some issues. I don't think we should look past these losses they've, that they've had the past few weeks. They lost, uh, to the Dolphins this past weekend. They lost to my Falcons a few weeks ago, which that loss is looking worse for the Bills as the weeks go on and the Falcons continue to lose. Uh, and the Buccaneers quietly. No one's talking about this. The Buccaneers have quietly had the best, or at least one of the best defenses in the NFL over the past few weeks. In fact, uh, since week 6, 5th in opponent EPA per play, 4th in opponent success rate. But even more notable than their overall defensive numbers is, uh, has been their ability to stop the run. Uh, 2nd in the NFL in opponent rush success rate, which is going to be huge against this Bills team because the Bills get the majority of their yards from running the football. In fact, they have the 5th highest rushing yards percentage, which means they are 5th in the NFL in terms of how much of their yards gained are from running the football. They struggled to run the football against a very good run defense in Tampa Bay. That's gonna make the Buccaneers live to pull off this upset. So I will take Tampa Bay at 220. Uh, so just to recap, my NFL upset picks for week 11, I got the Seahawks to take down the Rams at +138 on the money line, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to defeat the Buffalo Bills at 220. I gave you my NFL upset picks. Now it's time to get to my college football upset picks, starting with Oklahoma at + 172 against Alabama. I talked about this earlier when I said you should bet on Oklahoma to make the college football playoff. I think they beat Alabama this weekend, which is gonna go a long way to them making the college football playoff. I think this Oklahoma team is underrated, and I think Alabama, is a little bit overrated. If you look at some uh advanced metrics, uh, things are pretty close, like adjusted net EPA per play, Alabama is 9th, Oklahoma's 11th. If you look at net success rate, Oklahoma, the number 3 team in the country, Alabama down at 27th. Uh, so don't sleep on this Oklahoma Sooners team. I also think I think they're gonna be able to throw the ball against Alabama cause the Alabama secondary has struggled at times this season. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma secondary has been one of the best in the country. So maybe a bit of a tough, uh, test for Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback this weekend. So, uh, I like the Sooners. Don't be surprised if they pull off the upset. I'll be betting on it at +172. I'm also going to take Iowa at 220 against USC in a Big 10 matchup this weekend. This is our classic case of a very good offense, but a very bad defense, taking on a team with a very bad offense, but a very good defense. And typically, In these situations, it seems like it's the good defensive team that comes out on top, or at least it can be a lot closer than you think, uh, it's going to be. So I'm gonna take a shot on Iowa here. I think that the Iowa defense is gonna play a big role, and it is worth noting the USC defense, we know, is not good, but especially not good against the run 100th in opponent EPA per rush attempt, 70th in opponent yards per carry, giving up. 4.3 yards per rush. Uh, so the Iowa Hawkeyes, I like them, uh, to defeat USC at + 220. Let's do a little halftime trivia here. We're gonna do the immaculate grid. We've had fun with this the past few weeks, so we're gonna do it again today. A little bit more of a rapid-fire edition though. I think I had 3 minutes to fill it out last week. We've decided to cut it down to 2 minutes, and for every block I get correctly, I get an extra $5 to bet with. Tomorrow. Uh, so, here is today's immaculate grid. I feel actually pretty good about this one. So, 2 minutes is quick, uh, but let's see if I can get it done. Scott, you ready with the timer? Seth? Go. All right. First round draft pick, I'm gonna get this out of the way. I'm gonna go Houston Texans. I remember Mario Williams when he was selected over Reggie Bush , which was the controversial draft pick, uh, back then. Uh, yeah, 5%. 0, pretty good. Sanders there too. Uh, see, I could go a little bit cute, but I, this is rapid fire. I gotta just get it done. Tua is obviously a first-round draft pick for the Dolphins. Uh, I'm gonna go a little bit cuter here. I'm gonna Clyde Edwards-Ela. Remember him? Uh, wasn't he , I believe his picked with the last pick in that year's draft, uh, first round. Yup, 11%. Perfect. There we go. 3 done already, uh, Chiefs and 49ers, we all know the obvious one for that one, Scott. Obvious one, Joe Montana, finished his career in Kansas City. 33%. Uh, did Damio Ryan's play for both these teams, I believe. He's now the coach of the Texans. Demio Ryan, did he, I think he, I think he played for both. No, that was wrong. That was, he did not play for the Forty-Niners. OK. Uh, he was a defensive coordinator for the Forty-Niners. I thought he played for them as well. OK, so that one's definitely, I mean, we could guess again, but now I'm, I'm can't get a perfect bracket. That , that sucks. Um, Dolphins and, uh, oh, I know this one, this is gonna be Raheem Mostert. Mm, good. Raheem Mostert, yep, 50, uh, it's a very popular one, I kind of figured. Eagles, Texans. Taki tako spikes. Did he play for both those? He used to play for the Bills too. Did he played for both the Texans and the Eagles? I think he kind of did. No, wrong. Two wrong answers already. Uh, how are we doing for time ? OK, Chiefs, Eagles. I can't think of a Chiefs Eagle. Uh, there has to be an Eagle and. Eagle and a dolphin. I don't have it. I don't have it in my head. Uh, it's so much, it's so much harder when you're under pressure with a dime. All right, you know what, 5 for 2 minutes, that's not bad. That's, uh, what, an extra $25 to bet with tomorrow. Let's quickly see, uh, who the most popular answers were. I'm gonna be kicking myself, I know. Uh, Jay Ajai, yes, of course, LeSean McCoy, that, that was an obvious one. CJ Gardner Johnson, I actually did not remember he was on the Texans , so I don't blame myself for that one. Carlos Hyde, yeah, so some niche ones there. Uh, I. Currently should have got LeSean McCoy. That, that's kind of the one that I missed that the Chiefs. He finished his career with the Chiefs, yeah, uh, yeah, and Jay EI shadow JHI, uh, yeah, I should probably should have thought of that one too, but, uh, all right, I got the obvious ones. Um, there you go. All right. This has been, uh, today's edition of the halftime trivia. I have an extra $25 to bet with on Thursday's show. We are still awaiting the results of the Women's Champions League bet that I gave out yesterday, so I'll recap that tomorrow, but we're going to stay in the realm of women's sports. This time we are going pretty far north. We are going to bet on women's Swedish hockey, which is set to take, uh, set to take place tomorrow afternoon. It is the SDHL, which stands for, of course, Svins Svinska de Makilien. Uh, not a bad Swedish accent actually. I think that might be one of my better accents that, that I've done in this show. Uh, pretty fun game tomorrow, SDE hockey, minus 108 against Moto hockey, -112. I'm gonna take SDE hockey, uh -10108. Uh, you can tell by the odds there. This is basically a coin flip game in some Swedish women's professional hockey, and for good reason. These two teams are right next to each other in the standings. SDE hockey's 9-1, 1 and 6, which is 9 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 overtime loss, and 6 regulation losses. For a goal differential of +13, moto hockey. is 804-6 for a goal differential of plus 11. So, so far, uh, through the 1st 1617 games of this, this season, these two teams have been very similar. They've also split their season series so far. Uh, so everything all seems like right down the middle. So, I will take the home team as a very, very slight underdog. I mean, if this is a coin flip game, uh, and, uh, like if it's truly like two teams are very even, uh, then I would expect these odds if they were at a neutral site, but, uh, it is the slight underdog that's playing on their home ice and That team also has a very slight, slightly better goal differential at +13 compared to Moto at +11. So, uh, in a coin flip game, I'll take the slight home underdog -108, give me SDE hockey in some Wednesday afternoon, Savinska Savinska Damakiligan. Some Spka, the Mackey league in action on Wednesday afternoon. Last night was a disaster, my friends, 0 and 4 . even when I was on a hot streak, you know, I've bet long enough. I know that hot streaks eventually turn into cold streaks. It's the way that betting works, and that is why we always gamble responsibly. Uh, but last night, uh, in 0 and 4 night, so just to recap, uh, I bet the under in, uh, Akron, uh, against Kent State, uh, that went way over. Uh, I think 60 points are scored in that game. Kentucky plus. 4.5 against Louisville, they ended up losing by 7. so that was close, but no cigar. The Maple Leafs, uh, are the worst team that I've ever watched. Uh, lost to the Bruins. Uh, they actually almost fought back from 4-1, uh, made a 4-3, but then the Bruins, uh, scored an insurance goal there late in the third. Uh, the Kraken was the closest bet of the night. Uh, I went to sleep. They were up 1-0 on the Blue Jackets. I woke up and I prayed to Gambler, I said. Please let me refresh my score app. Please tell me the kraken one. I need a win. I need a win, I need a win. I refreshed the score app. They lost in shootout because, of course. Uh, so 0 and 4 on the night. Uh, it's you know what they say though, if you never refresh the thing, you can't do it. That's true. That's true. Yeah, Schrodinger's bet. Uh, so that brings my season total down to the negative for the first time in a long time. We are now at -78. Dollars 26 cents, uh, after losing $100 last night. So, uh, yeah, I, I mean, all you can do is, uh, continue to gamble responsibly and try to get back in the positive. So, uh, I'm gonna do exactly that. My goal for this show was to finish in the positive by the end of 2025, so we still have a month and a half, uh, still a long way to go. So let's see if we can take it at least one step in the right direction tonight. As always, for bets and a little bit of everything here, I got 2 in college football, 1 in the NHL, and I have an NBA bet on a total. Uh, so, yeah, and I think this is my first cider total in the NBA. The only time I've bet on anything else has been a player prop. So, let's get into it. College football, I alluded to this earlier in the show. Uh, you wanna watch and bet on the worst college football game you could possibly watch? Well, I have a bet for you. UMass, minus or plus 11.5, yes, I know. This is so stupid of me. I'm on a cold streak and I'm gonna bet on the worst college football team I've ever seen. But there is a reason why. Northern Illinois is almost as bad. I get UMass is horrific, but 11.5 points is crazy. I think UMass is at home too. I'll take the 11 points, unfortunately with UMass. They're not gonna win, but I'll take the 11.5 points at -115. UMass, a big reason why they stink is they have the worst secondary in college football. They can't defend anyone. It's basically me out there playing cornerback. But the good news is Northern Illinois can't throw the ball. They can't and they don't throw the ball. They barely ever throw the ball, and when they do, it's not good. Uh, they run the ball on 59.28% of their plays, and when they do throw the ball, they average 4.6 yards per throw. That is the second worst mark in the country. So I don't think Northern Illinois has the ability to fully exploit UMass's biggest weakness. And UMass actually does do a solid job of stopping the run. 29th in the country in opponent rush EPA. That's actually pretty good. Uh, Northern Illinois ranks forty-eighth in opponent rush EPA. So, uh, I think UMass, uh, can slow down the run enough. I'm not gonna say they're gonna win. But I think they can cover 11.5 points. Now, this is, this is the, I betting on the worst team in college football while you're on a cold streak is stupid. I'm gonna come in tomorrow and then I'm gonna realize how stupid this bet is. But I'm gonna take it, UMass plus 11.5 and minus 115. Uh, I'm also gonna take Toledo. Uh, I like this bet a lot more. Toledo is in a spot that I really like to attack as a sports betor. It is a team that has been on the wrong side of some late game variants all season. Uh, a lot of people don't like Toledo. I actually tweeted out last week when I was betting on them that they were my favorite college football bet of the season. I had a lot of replies being like, no, this Toledo Toledo team, they always blow it. Don't trust Toledo, don't trust Toledo. And then they won by 40 points. The 1st 6 weeks of the season did not go Toledo's way. A lot of bad luck, but their underlying metrics are fantastic. Amongst the. The best in the entire country. They are 6th in the country in adjusted net EPA per play. The only teams who ranked better in that stat over Toledo are Ohio State, USC, Oregon, Indiana, and Texas A&M. That's it. The 6th-place team, uh, on that, uh, stat is Toledo. Uh. Uh, so they are very good despite their not so great record. By the way, Miami, Ohio ranks 95th in that stat. Also 13th in net success rate compared to Miami, Ohio at 95th. So I like Toledo a lot. Only got to lay 4.5 points on them tonight at -104. Switching over to hockey , I'm gonna take the Chicago Blackhawks as a +132 home underdog to the New Jersey Devils. Uh, the Blackhawks lead the NHL in a stack called PDO, which I've talked about before. It is a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage. Now, some people look at PDO as a luck statistic. I think what PDO, a team that ranks high in that stat, I think I would avoid them for long-term bets. I would not be placing any futures on a team that ranks high early in the season in PDO, but I do think you can find some spots on a game by game basis, because at the end of the day, if you can shoot the puck really well. And if you can get really good goaltending, you can overcome a lot of your other shortcomings. Uh, and they are doing exactly that. Top 3 in shooting percentage, and their goaltender, Spencer Knight, unbelievable start to the season, 233 goals against average, 926 save percentage. Uh , and now they're pretty significant at home to a Devils team, which has been good, but not great this season. Uh, I think we're going to ride with the hot sticks and hot goaltending with the Blackhawks. That will take them plus 132. And then finally, I have an NBA bet on a total. I'm gonna go the Washington Wizards against the Houston Rockets under 234.5 at -108. These two teams rank in the bottom in turnovers per possession. They both cough the ball up on over 17% of their offensive possessions. It's hard to score a ton of points if you turn the ball over, cause what happens when you turn the ball over? Well, you can't score. Uh, and also, Washington is 29th in the NBA in floor percentage, which is a stat that is the percentage of a team's possessions that result in at least one point being scored. Of course, one point would come from a free throw. They score on only 47.7% of their uh possessions, and then the other. The metric we want to look at for basketball for a total bet is pace of play. Houston, one of the slowest paces in the NBA, 25th in pace of play . So all of that adds up to me to being a low scoring affair. So I'll go under 234.5 and -108 between the Wizards and the Rockets. Let's take a look to see how much money I have to bet with today. I hope it's a $5 bill. No, it's 100, we're sticking with 100, 0 boy, oh boy, I really hope I have a winning night tonight, cause I do not wanna go. Down over $100 on the season. Let's try to turn things around. Let's end the cold streak tonight. Uh, my favorite bet of the night, I'm gonna put $40 on Toledo minus $4.5 minus $104 against Miami, Ohio. Uh, I will also go, I'm not gonna bet a lot on UMass, so I'm gonna skip, I'm gonna go. $30 on Wizards Rockets, Rockets Under, which brings me to $70 and that's perfect. I'll go $15 on UMass, $15 on the Blackhawks as underdogs. I like that, uh, diversion. The Blackhawks are a big underdog, and, uh, UMass, I don't want to put a ton of money on them because it's UMass. Uh, so those are my picks. This has been Play It Safe, presented by FanDuel. Stick around, cause I still have my three-leg parlay of the day as we try to climb the parlay peak. All right, let's wrap up the show with my parlay of the day. It'll be my second attempt to cash a three-leg parlay as we try to climb the parlay peak. Finally hit a two-leg parlay on the weekend, so let's see if I can now get a three-leg parlay. Yesterday's 3-leg parlay went 1 and 2, so not even really close. Uh, RJ Barrett, 0 and 7 from beyond the arc, uh, only needed him, him to hit 2 of those, uh, he couldn't hit a single one. Uh, all right, my rule, which I've talked about every time, is I need to, uh, each leg has to be at least -250 or longer odds. Uh, that'll make it a little bit more difficult for myself. That way, I can't just do a three-leg minus 1000 each leg parlay. But I'm taking that rule to its limit today cause, uh, all three legs of the parlay, uh, are pretty chalky, pretty close to that -250 limit. Uh, first leg, I'm gonna take Utah . Utah, Utah. I have a thing when I write, where I, uh , sometimes we'll just do capital letters, and then sometimes I'll just throw a random, uh, uh, lowercase letter in there for some reason. Utah -200. Uh, they are taking on the Buffalo Sabres at home. Utah, the far better team. Buffalo kind of stinks this season, even though they've already beaten my Maple Leafs once. Uh, but Utah on their home ice have been very impressed with Utah this season. They are now favorites to make the playoffs, and, uh, just a far better team than Buffalo, and they're on their home ice, so I'll take them at -200. Uh, excuse me, we're gonna stick in the NHL. We're gonna do a player prop. We're gonna do Connor Berard, who, if you remember, I'm on the Blackhawks to win tonight. We just need Connor Breedard, the prodigy. To get 1 + point. So, an assist, a goal, any type of point tonight, uh, for Connor Bernard against the Devils, that will cash that leg of the parlay, that leg of the parlay is -245. We're getting real close to the limit on that one. And then the final leg of the parlay, we're going over to the NBA and we're gonna take a team to win. Don't care about a point spread here, we just need the Miami Heat. To beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, they are -225 on the money line. Uh, go look at the Cleveland Cavaliers' injury report. There are, there are entire team's out tonight. Donovan Mitchell's out, uh , a bunch of other guys out. They have like 7 guys on the injury report. None of them are playing tonight. The Heat are at home, I think they're 6.5 point favorites on the spread, but Moneyline minus 225, so all three legs. Pretty chalky, uh, but still, even if you parlay all those up together, the parlay odds come out to + 205, odds subject to change at FanDuel sportsbook. But there we go, I feel really good about this parlay. I'm not getting aggressive. We're just trying to get the win so I can climb the parlay peak, get up to the four lane. Parlay, Utah, Connor Bernard at a point, Miami Heat to defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers, all of that at +205 odds. That is my parlay of the day. This has been Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Thank you all so much for tuning in. I will see you all tomorrow.