Making Moves | November 13, 2025

It's official, my friends. Last night I placed the worst ever bet I've placed on this show, but that's OK, we can turn things around quickly because week 11 of the NFL season starts tonight with Thursday Night Football. We're gonna talk about that on today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Also, by the way, the player prop countdown is coming up, all that and more. Let's go. Let's take a look at the top headlines in sports betting today, starting with a little rapid-fire action, starting with the NFL, starting with some fun news. Jameis Winston has been announced as the starting quarterback for the New York Giants this weekend with Jackson Dart in concussion protocol. We all thought, uh, that we were gonna have to suffer through another Russell Wilson start, but the Giants have announced that Jameis Winston has leapfrogged him on the depth chart, and he will be getting the start on Sunday. Against the Packers. How fun is that? We need more Jameis Winston's, uh, in our life. He, uh, is an entertaining player. He will throw for 3 touchdowns, but also 3 interceptions and also, uh, the best interview right now in the NFL. Very fun guy. Uh, Jameis Winston, very happy guy. Uh, and also the betting market actually reacted a little bit, uh, to that news as well. The line has shift half, uh, it has shifted half a point, uh, to. Uh, the New York Giants, uh, this weekend who are taking on the Packers . The Packers were 7.5 point favorites. It's now down to Packers, uh, -7, which is a significant half point move because it gets to that, uh, magic number of 7 points. So, uh, betting market clearly thinks that Jameis Winston is more valuable, uh, than Russell Wilson, and just thank God we don't have to watch Russell Wilson play football. God, that's depressing.s. You're unlimited. Uh, James Winston's the complete opposite. So very happy for that. That now makes that game exciting to watch on Sunday afternoon against the Packers. Uh, we also have some news in the NBA. Bradley Beal, out for the season for the LA Clippers, fractured his hip. Ah, that is an ugly, ugly injury, not good news for the Clippers. Uh, he wasn't their best player, wasn't their star player, but he certainly, uh , provided them a ton of depth. And, uh, he is an important player for that team. Their win total for the season for the Clippers has dropped down to 42.5 at FanDuel. We've also seen their championship odds dip a little bit. They're now down to 27 to 1 to win the NBA championship. So that was some bad news for Clippers fans. Uh, that was released yesterday afternoon. Uh, but good news for any fans of the New Jersey Devils because the Devils, uh, first place in the Eastern Conference right now, 12-4-1 on the season. That is 25 points. That is a 3-point lead. Uh, on the rest of the Eastern Conference, and as a result, we have seen their Stanley Cup odds slightly improve. They're around 20 to 1 to start the season. They are now up to 14 to 1, uh, to win, uh, the Stanley Cup. I don't know if they'll quite be up there, uh, at the top of the Eastern Conference at the end of the regular season, but certainly will be in the playoffs and will be a playoff contender. Certainly in a better spot than my Toronto Maple Leafs, who now Austin Matthews will be missing tonight and will be missing, who knows how long. Uh, the Maple Leafs. Bring me nothing but pain. Uh, the Grey Cup is set to take place this Sunday. I talked about this, uh, on Monday's show, uh, but the odds have started to shift towards the Saskatchewan Rough Riders. In fact, quite a bit. Uh, the Rough Riders were 2.5 point favorites. That's now up to 3.5 points, which is significant. It crosses that key number of 3. Also, their money line odds have, uh, moved from -124 up to -196. Uh, so sharp bets out there are hammer. the Saskatchewan Rough Riders. I myself have actually talked, uh, to two professional bettors who do bet on the CFL and they're both on the Rough Riders as well. So it seems like they are the popular side to back in Sunday's Grey Cup against the Montreal Alouettes, 6:00 p.m. Eastern that starts. So, I know we have some NFL going on at the same time, but, uh, for you Americans out there, if you have an extra screen, toss on the Grey Cup. Always a very fun game to watch, and it should be a close one this year. But like I said, the pro bettors seem to be backing. Uh, the Saskatchewan Rough Riders. Uh, we have found out the Cy Young winners in Major League Baseball. They are releasing the awards, uh, it seems like each day. Uh, yesterday or two days ago, we got the Manager of the Year awards. Last night we got the Cy Young Awards. No surprise to anyone, it was Paul Skenes won it for the National League, unanimous winner for the NL Cy Young. Uh, Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies was the unanimous runner-up. Uh, and then some other votes scattered around. Uh , Tarek Skal for the American League, uh, he won his second straight Cy Young. No surprise, both pitchers were actually preseason favorites to win the awards, and then such big favorites by the end of the season that the odds were taken off the board. So, unlike for Manager of the Year, we, we saw a little bit of a surprise with John Schneider not winning. Uh, the Cy Young Awards, uh, went exactly how we. All, uh, expected, so congratulations to Tarikkal and Paul Skenes. We have some football to watch and bet on tonight, including a college football game in the Sun Belt Conference. It is Troy against Old Dominion. Uh, Old Dominion is an 11.5 point favorite, over-under for that game, 52.5. Uh, Scott, do you know where Old Dominion is? Trivia. It's in Virginia. I just looked it up right now. Virginia, do you know where Troy is cause I didn't look that up. Is it? I don't know, I'm gonna look it up really quick. Uh, Troy University, uh, Alabama. So we got an Alabama against a Virginia matchup. Uh, I don't know if I've ever watched either of these two teams play football, but Old Dominion is an 11.5 point favorite, the Old Dominion Monarchs. Uh, uh, the, the player to watch in this game is gonna be Colton Joseph. He is one of those dual-threat quarterbacks that we see in college football. Not only has he thrown for over 2200 yards, he is also their leading rusher, 620 yards on the ground, 19 passing touchdowns, 9 rushing touchdowns. Uh, if Troy wants any chance to upset Old Dominion as an 11.5 point underdog, they gotta find a way. To slow down Colton Joseph, the dual threat quarterback for Old Dominion. I do not have a bet for this game. Uh, I've kind of looked at this game. I think the odds are set about right. I would slightly lean towards Troy getting the 11.5 points, uh, but I think the oddsmakers got this one right. So I will not have a pick for this game later on the show, but slight lean to Troy, uh, if you want to bet on some college football action. Uh, but more notably, uh, NFL Week 11 starts tonight, uh, with Thursday Night Football. We have an. NFC East battle between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets. Uh, once again, uh, we have a divisional game on Thursday Night Football. We have seen a trend of, uh, the underdogs in these divisional games, getting the win on Thursday Night Football, getting upset wins, uh, but usually, uh, I think every other case actually when it's been a big favorite, uh, the favorite has been on the road. This time tonight's game is in New England or at Foxborough, I guess I should say. Uh, New England's not really an area, uh. Patriots are 12.5 point favorites now. We have seen the line shift on this game throughout the week. They open on Sunday as 10.5 point favorites, 11.5 point favorites on Monday, now up to 12.5 point favorites, and that 12.5 side on the Patriots is juiced up to -118 as well. Uh, over-under for that game is 43.5. Uh, the betting favorite to find the end zone, no surprise to anyone, Traveon Henderson after his coming out party last week, -180 to score a touchdown tonight. But of course, the story of the night will be none other than Drake May, who is currently the co-favorite to win NFL MVP alongside Matt Stafford. Uh, if you want to bet on him, his passing yards total is set at 241.5 tonight. Uh, maybe a little high because maybe the Patriots might not even need to throw the ball. Uh, if they. They do end up covering the spread. They're gonna win by a lot. Maybe they just, uh, lean on the run game in the second half to run down the clock. Uh, but if you want to bet on Drake May's passing yards option, uh, total, that option is there. I will not be betting on Drake May, but I do have two other bets for this game. Uh, but if you want them, you got to stick around till the end of the show. It is Thursday, my friends, which means it is time for the weekly player prop countdown, 5 and 5 for a very small loss in last week's player prop countdown, so let's see, uh, if we can instead have a profitable week this week with the countdown, that would be nice and appreciated. Uh, so let's get into it. 10 player props for NFL week 11, starting with my number 10 ranked player prop. Let's get this one out of the way. Michael Pennick, my guy, uh, to throw an interception, unfortunately. Uh, plus 126. I tried to bet on this a couple of weeks ago and then he didn't play. Kirk Cousins played. Uh, so I'm back on it this week. Uh, he leads all NFL quarterbacks in bad throw percentage, with 25.1% of his throws being considered bad throws. That's not good. Uh, that's 3% more actually than the next worst quarterback in that stat, which is 3%. So, uh, he hasn't thrown a ton of interceptions this season, uh, but if he continues to throw a quarter of his throws poorly, uh, those are gonna turn in interceptions, uh, at some point, probably sooner rather than later. So we are getting plus money on this prop this week, so plus 126 . Listen, I gotta be unbiased. Sometimes I gotta fade my guys, and we are going to fade Michael Pennix. This week, bet on him to throw an interception against, uh, the Carolina. Panthers at +126. My number 9 ranked player prop for NFL week 11 is Derrick Henry to go under 76.5 rushing yards and -114. The Ravens are significant favorites against the Cleveland Browns. You might think, hey, Ian, why would you fade a Ravens player as a big favorite against this Browns team? Well, it's because the best thing the Browns do is stop the run. Uh, 2nd in opponent rush EPA, 2nd in opponent rush success rate, and 2nd in opponent yards per. Carry giving up just 3.6 yards per rush. Derrick Henry ran for just 23 yards and 2.1 yards per carry against the Browns all the way back in week two. So he's already struggled against them once this season. Uh, I'm, I envision him struggling against the Browns again, if the Ravens want to win and cover in this AFC North matchup, they got to go to the air. That is how you attack the Browns' defense. It is not by running the ball . So Derrick Henry under 76.5 rushing errors at -114. My 8 ranked player prop for NFL week 11. It is time for my touchdown score. I like to have one of these every week. This week I'm targeting John U Smith, the former Falcon, current Pittsburgh Steeler, who's available at 240 at FanDuel, uh, to score a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals. If you remember, uh, the last time the Steelers played the Bengals last month, uh, 4 different touchdowns were scored by tight ends on the Steelers. 3 different tight ends, 4 overall total touchdowns. Uh, and as a result, the Bengals have given up the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. They have given up 11 total touchdowns to opposing tight ends. That is 4 more than any other defense has allowed to tight ends. So I don't know what it is about the Bengals, but they cannot stop, uh, opposing tight ends. Uh, now a plus 240, that's actually slightly longer odds than, uh, Pat Friarmuth. Now I know Pat Friarmouth scored twice against the Bengals last time. But overall, Johnny Smith is still the Steelers' primary tight end. He plays more snaps than Pat Friarmuth. He gets more targets the large majority of games, more receptions. So I'm a little bit surprised he's available at longer odds than Friarmuth, uh, for Sunday. So I will jump all over that. I will take John Smith anytime touchdown at + 240 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Uh, I'm gonna fade my Falcons once again. Again, not once but twice. I'm already betting on Michael Pennix to throw an interception. I'm also gonna bet Rico Dowdell to go over 88.5 rushing yards at -114. This is my number 7 ranked player prop for this week. Uh, my number one ranked player prop last week with John was Jonathan Taylor to go over his rushing yards total against the Falcons, cause the Falcons can't stop the run. They can stop the pass, one of the best passes . Defenses in the NFL, but they cannot stop the run. I would be able to get 100 yards on the ground against this Falcons defense. 28th in opponent rush EPA, 29th in opponent rush success rate. They are allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Now they take on a very potent Panthers rush attack. Rico Dowdell, averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season. That's pretty , pretty, pretty good. So I think he's gonna have a big game against this Falcons defense and the Panthers would be smart to just keep the ball on the ground and run it as much as they can. Targeting another running back for my number 6 ranked player prop for NFL Week 11, it is James Cook, the Bills running back. I'm gonna go under 79.5 rushing yards for James Cook against the Buccaneers. If you watched yesterday's show, you saw that, uh, I'm picking the Buccaneers to win that game outright. And a big reason why I'm doing that is because they are one of the best run defenses in the NFL. 5th in opponent rush EPA, first, an opponent rush success rate, allowing just 4.2 yards per carry. If they can stop the Bills' uh rush attack, which I think they can, not only will they win that game, but also that's likely gonna lead to James Cook going under his rushing yards total a little high for me against such a good run defense. It's at 79.5. Uh, so I will fade the Bills running back. I will take James Cook under 79.5 rushing yards for my number 6 ranked player prop for NFL week 11. Stick around. I got 5 more player props to break down for week 11. It is time to rank my top 5 NFL player props for NFL week 11, starting with number 5. I'm taking the Chiefs wide receiver, Rasheed Rice over 73.5 receiving yards at -114. I would jump on this now because Patrick Certan, the defending Defensive Player of the Year and the Broncos' top cornerback, is questionable, uh, with, I believe a peck injury for this weekend . If he is declared out, expect this number. To go up by quite a bit. So I would jump on this now before that is official. Uh, it looks like he's likely gonna be out, especially with the byeweek next week. They're probably just gonna rest him and bring him back after the bye-week . Uh, not for sure, but at least that is, uh, the conclusion I have come to and believe. Uh, and if he does miss this game, it is going to lead to a big game for Rasheed Rice, who has been phenomenal for the Chiefs since he has returned. From his suspension, he has seen 7+ targets in all 3 of his starts so far, and he's also reached 80 or more receiving yards in 2 of those 3 starts. Uh, so if the Broncos don't have Certan and they have to put their number 2 corner on Rasheed Rice, that could end up being a big day for the Chiefs' primary receiver. So Rasheed Rice over 73.5 receiving yards at -114. My number 4 ranked. Player prop for NFL Week 11 is Tua Tuggabiloa. Uh, his longest completion over 35.5 yards at -115 . Uh, he and the Dolphins will be taking on the Commanders over in Spain, in, uh, Madrid. Uh, I believe that game has taken place. It is the final European game of the 2025 season. Thankfully, uh, we can stop waking up early for football. Uh, but, uh, Tua should have a very favorable matchup in this game because the Commander's secondary has been horrific this season. They allow the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL at 8.4 yards per pass attempt. That is 0.6 more yards than any other defense is allowed in the NFL, but even more, uh, notable than that, uh, is they have allowed the most, uh, throws of 20+ yards, uh, with 36 , and the most throws of 40+ yards with 10. Uh, so I expect Tua to be able to complete a long pass in this one, Tua Tgavaloa, longest completion over 35.5 yards and minus 115. My number 3 ranked player prop for NFL week 11 is the Packers running back Josh Jacobs to go over 81.5 rushing yards at -110. He and the Packers will be taking on the New York Giants, who remain, uh, the worst run defense in the NFL. Last in opponent rush EPA, last in opponent yards per carry, giving up 5.5 yards per rush. And 30th in opponent rush success rate. Uh, also with the Packers' offensive struggles the past couple of weeks, wouldn't be surprised if they just go back to, uh, keeping things a little bit more simple, relying on the running game, giving the ball to Josh Jacobs as many times as possible. Uh, so if that is the case, I think Josh Jacobs is gonna soar over his rushing yards total. I'll go over 81.5 rushing yards for Josh. Jacobs, my number 2 ranked player pro for NFL week 11, we are going to fade AJ Brown. AJ Brown under 4.5 receptions at -148. I don't necessarily have any analytics or statistics or metrics to back this up. Uh, what I do have, uh, is a Twitch stream this week where AJ Brown, uh, called the Eagles offense a And can I, I don't think I can swear, SHIT show, Can I spell it? Uh, SHIT show, and he also, uh, told fantasy owners to trade him and to get rid of him. Well, AJ Brown, I don't have you in fantasy, so I can't trade you. But what I can do is bet against you and take that you're under 4.5 receptions. He has been a problem for the Eagles offense all season. He is upset. As diva wide receivers do, uh, get upset about not getting the ball enough. He's been getting the ball a decent amount, but I guess he wants like, what, 15 throws to him a game. Is that gonna be enough for you, AJ Brown? Uh, regardless, when a player gets to this point where he is this frustrated with the offense, when things start that way, maybe an offense will just try to give him the ball a little bit more. That. Clearly has not worked. Uh, now it's gotten to the point where I just think he's going to, to be honest, maybe not try as hard. Maybe the Eagles offense are gonna start looking to Devonta Smith a little bit more. Uh, I think this is going to hurt AJ Brown's numbers moving forward. Uh, so I'm gonna try to take advantage of that by betting the under 4.5 receptions at -148, uh, which leads me to my number one ranked player prop for NFL week 11. We are going to fade the number 1 overall draft pick, Cam Ward. Under 193.5 passing yards and -115. I don't know why his passing yards total is so high. I almost fell out of my chair when I saw that his passing yards total is almost at 200 yards. Cam Warren has been horrific this year. Now, maybe it's not entirely his fault. He's, uh, behind one of the worst offensive lines in NFL history. I think he's on pace, uh, to, uh, be on the wrong end of the most sacks in a single season. Doesn't really have any help at receiver. His coach has already been fired. Uh, but the facts. He has completed just 57.6% of passes. He's averaging just 6 yards per pass attempt. He's averaging just 195.6 passing yards per game. And now he has to take on the best secondary in the NFL. The Texans ranked first in opponent dropback EPA, second in opponent dropback, success rate , third in opponent yards per pass attempt, and fourth in opponent yards per pass. Game allowing just 171 passing yards per game. That is over 20 yards fewer than Cam Ward's passing yards total for this week. So I do not know why his passing yards total is so high. I will take the under on Cam Ward's passing yards total of 193.5 and -115. That is my number one ranked player prop for NFL Week 11. This has been the player prop countdown. Hello friends, it's time for a little betting education, uh, with both the NBA starting, uh, and the college basketball having started last week. Uh, I'm sure some of you, most of you are probably betting on some basketball, myself included. So if you're gonna bet on basketball, you should know how to handicap the sport, and how you do that is you generally look at some statistics. Now we all know general statistics for basketball, field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounds, all those basic ones, you don't need me to explain those to you. Uh, but, uh, pro bets and sharp betters will take things a little bit further and look at some advanced metrics. So I've written down here the five, I would say the most popular advanced metrics for the sport of basketball, and I'm gonna explain them to you so you know what they mean . So when you hear smarter people than me, talk about why they're on a certain team or a certain total or a certain prop, and they're referencing these stats, you'll know what they're talking about. So we're gonna start with effective field goal. Percentage. Now we all know what field goal percentage is, it is just the percentage of, uh, shots that go in, but the problem with just looking at field goal percentage is that if a team shoots more 3-point shots than 2-point shots, their field goal percentage is gonna be naturally a little bit lower. Uh, so a team like in college basketball, Alabama, who shoots a ton of 3s, if you only look at standard field goal percentage, you might be like, oh, they don't shoot the ball really well. Well, it's more so that they shoot a ton of 3s. You're gonna hit your 3s at a lower rate, but obviously. They're worth more points. So effective field goal percentage takes into consideration the fact that some shots are 3s and they balance that out. So that is just an overall metric to see how good a shooting, uh, uh, how good of a team is at shooting, no matter if they shoot 3s or 2s, it balances those two types of shots out. Floor percentage is one of my favorite stats when looking at totals, uh, for, uh, for basketball games. What floor percentage is, is a percentage of a. Teams possessions that result in at least 1 point being scored. So it could be a 2-point shot, 3-point shot, or if they draw a foul and then hit at least one of their free throws, cause that is a skill in basketball, being able to draw fouls and get to the foul line to shoot some free throws. So, uh, if a team scores at least 1 point on a high percentage of their possessions, usually, uh, their totals are gonna be pretty high, and you should be able to cash in on some overs. If the opposite is true, you should be able to cash in on some unders. Offensive and defensive efficiency is actually a little bit similar to floor percentage, it's just a little bit of a different twist. Uh, it is how many points per 100 possessions a team scores. So are they efficient down, uh, down near the hoop? Do they not turn the ball over? Uh, do they grab offensive rebounds, things like that. So, actually, these three are all very similar. Between floor percentage, offensive and defensive efficiency, and effective possession ratio, they just measure certain stats, uh, a little bit differently. I don't love offensive and defensive efficiency. I'd rather look at floor percentage and effective possession ratio, and we actually have a quick, uh, formula for effective possession ratio that you can keep in mind. It is possessions. Possessions. Plus, offensive rebounds, which are huge. If you can grab offensive rebounds at a high rate, you're gonna get extra scoring chances. That is huge, especially in college basketball, but you know what's bad? Turnover. You don't wanna turn the ball over. You turn the ball over, you're wasting possessions, that is not an effective possession. So it's possessions plus offensive rebounds minus turnovers divided by possessions. The result you get after that is effective possession ratio. That might be my #1 favorite stat when handicapping college basketball. So that is number 4. And then finally, pace, uh, which is just simply how many possessions, how many times your team or the team that you're handicapping has the ball, uh, per game. Obviously, if they play at a high pace, you're gonna get more possessions cause you're running up and down the court. Uh , if you're playing at a slow pace, if you milk out the shot clock, uh, then your possession numbers are gonna be a little bit lower. So that is a very key stat, uh, when, uh, trying to bet on totals, uh, both in college basketball and the NBA. So I would say floor percentage, pace, and effective field goal percentage, all really important for totals bets, whereas offensive defensive efficiency and effective possession ratio, and then you can throw in this one and this one as well, uh, are more important when you're betting on sides in college basketball. So there you go, a little, uh, some little, uh, education for you now that we are well into both the NBA season. And the college basketball season. March Madness is gonna get here before you know it. With Thursday Night Football set to take place tonight, uh, it is time for a ticket for the ticket. I'm trying to buy a ticket for an event this weekend. Now normally I try to buy something, uh, in Toronto as this whole bit started with ALCS Game 7 I was trying to go to, and then the World Series, and a Maple Leafs game this past weekend. Now I wanna go to the Grey Cup. The greatest sporting event in Canada is this Sunday. The issue is, it's not uh here in Toronto. I would have to go to Winnipeg, so, uh, I need to win a big bet tonight, now of course, and we're gonna get into it. These are long shot bets, these are maximum $10 bets, gamble responsibly, please, but it's always fun to sprinkle a few dollars on a long shot bet, and if I win one tonight, Uh, maybe I'll go to the Grey Cup on Sunday. So let's first take a look at some Grey Cup ticket prices in Winnipeg, uh, the Grey Cup between the Saskatchewan Rough Riders and the Montreal Alouettes. Uh, actually, the tickets are more expensive than I thought they would be. Yeah, but people, well, that's where CFL is big. Like I know it's not huge, uh, in Ontario , but Old West, they love their Canadian football. Uh, so let's, uh, take a look here. Now, if I'm gonna fly all the way to Winnipeg, I want a good ticket. Uh, what is Air Canada charging you to get out? So a flight's gonna be about $300 round trip. Uh, so that's flying out Sunday morning, that's coming back Monday. What about staying at the Best Western and how much is the accommodation? I have not looked at hotel, that's a great question. $600 600 dollars for one night. total, uh, between the Oh yes, yeah, so let's say $300 I think that's safe, uh, so adding $600 to whatever this ticket is, that's flight, hotel, and then this ticket, um, uh, that's $783 right there, jeezus. No, that's too much, I don't want to spend that much. Uh, amazing deal over here, that's a little bit on the side for 2029 . I think $1000 makes a lot of sense. So let's aim for $1000 looks like in the stadium. Are you able to, uh, yeah, if you can, uh, if you can, can you swap me to the, over to the side, then you can see it, but I can't swap this screen. Actually, yes, I can leave it there, leave it there. I can do that. There we go. That's what that, that's, you know what, that's not bad. Uh, first row, uh, I sat in a very similar seat for the NFC championship game in Philadelphia once. Uh, all right, that, that, uh, so we need 1000 bucks generally. Uh, I think that'll be enough for it to fly me out to Winnipeg, stay a night, and have a nice seat at the CFL Grey Cup. So let's look at some long shot bets for tonight's Thursday Night Football game. Uh, between the Patriots and the Jets, a little bit hard, uh, to find, uh, some ones that I like, but I have a little bit of a list here, let's see if we can, uh, agree on any of these. Uh, starting with, where's my list here? I don't have it in front of me. AD Mitchell, first touchdown. AD Mitchell was just acquired by the Jets. So he, he was on the Colts. Uh, if you actually remember early in the season, there was a Colts receiver who dropped the ball as he was going into the end zone. If you remember that, it's against the Rams, it led to them losing against the Rams. That was AD Mitchell. He was then traded to the Jets as part of that Sauce Gardner trade. Uh, so, I believe 1 game with the Jets, I guess maybe 2nd. OK. Uh, so him to score the first touchdown, now the issue with that is that would require the Jets to have to score the first touchdown. So that's why his odds are so long, 60 to 1. But if we now need $1000 I need some longer odds than that. Uh, I also need some longer odds, but you have Trayvon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, 2+ touchdowns each. That's a lot of touchdowns to only two guys. I don't love that. I don't mind Hunter Henry, 3+ touchdowns, 70 to 1. Jets have struggled defending tight ends this season. That's still a lot of touchdowns for one player. You need one early, um, but yeah, I mean, $15 on that would get us there. Uh, Bruce Hall and Stefon Diggs to combine for 250+ receiving yards. That's crazy. 150 to 1. Obviously, Bruce Hall, it'd be a lot of screens, it'd be a lot of getting in the, but he's like the only offensive player they have left, so they kind of just need to get the ball to Bruce Hall's hands as many times as possible at 150 to 1. So Juan Diggs would have to have a big game, but there's no sauce Gardner to guard him. I don't hate that at 150 to 1. Uh, Drake made us get 50+ rushing yards in each half. I don't love that. I know it's 175 to 1, but I mean if they're up in the second half, he's not gonna run. Uh, 50 is a lot for a quarterback. Jeopardy, right? Uh, and then exact score. I actually wanted to bet Jets to get shut out. I thought it'd be very long odds, but only like 12 to 1, so that's no good. Uh, exact score, my guess for the final score is Patriots 41, Jets 6. I like, I mean, 300 to 1. Yeah, so I think I, I think every time for this segment, we gotta do an exact score. So I will do like what, $4 on Patriots 41 Jets $6. I think the other one I'd go in on is Hall and Diggs. To combine for receiving yards, is that crazy? Or Hunter Henry, it's one of those two, right? It's like you need Steph to have 200 yards. Yeah, he'd probably have to get 200 yards. I mean, he could about 200 yards and breeze 50 count of 50 out of the backfield, so. I'm gonna go with that. Hunter Henry 3 to 3 touchdowns for 1 player is so hard to do and also that's 70 to 1. So I, that's, I, I, I'm gonna go Bruce Hall, Stefon Diggs to combine for 250 receiving yards. That's gonna be what, $8 and then I'll put $4 on the Patriots, 41, Jets $6. If either of those win, we'll be going to the Grey Cup on Sunday. Let's get you to Winnipeg. Let's get me to Winnipeg. Everyone's favorite destination. With NFL week 12 starting tonight, it's time to look at the best betting trends for this weekend's NFL action. Now remember, you don't want to bet solely based on betting trends. These are just fun little tidbits to keep in mind and maybe a starting point for your handicapping process, which will eventually lead to a pick. But some interesting ones this week, starting with one for Thursday Night Football tonight. Uh, the Patriots, uh, sorry, Jets fans, this one's gonna hurt to hear. The Patriots are 16-2 in their last. 18 games against the Jets. Oh, man, that sucks. Uh, and now with the Patriots being 11, 12.5 point favorites, it's probably gonna be, uh, going up to 1717 and 2 in the last 19 games against the Jets. The Jets, Jets fans gotta have, uh, some of the worst, uh, luck and worst team to have to cheer over. And the Jets have never been good my entire life, uh, as a fan. I went to the AFC championship once, Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez, but, uh, tough. Things are only. It's gonna get worse from here, Jets fans. I, I apologize, uh, when you have to lose to the Patriots again tonight. Maybe you don't even watch tonight, to be honest. I probably wouldn't if I was a Jets fan. Uh, moving on to some Sunday's games. Uh, the Vikings are 8-1 in their last 9 games against the Bears. Uh, a little bit surprising. I know the Vikings have had some good teams, but generally, these two teams have been kind of similar over the past number of years, but the Vikings and Kevin O'Connell has had the Bears' number. Um, so 8-1 in their last 9 against the Bears, including back in week one. If you remember that game, the Bears were winning almost the entire thing . JJ McCarthy then stormed back and had one good quarter and, uh, led the Vikings to the win. And ever since then, Vikings fans have treated this guy like he's Joe Montana. Uh, so Vikings 8-1 last night against Bears, we'll see if that improves to 9-1 on Sunday. They are favored in that game. Uh, the Titans, uh, returned to action this weekend after, uh, having a bye this past week. The Titans are on a historically bad, uh, run of covering the spread. Actually, last year, the Titans went 2-15 against the spread, which is the worst spread record in NFL history for a single season, and things haven't gotten much better, uh, this year. 2-7 against the spread so far this season, or is it 2-8? 2 and 7, I think, uh, so far cause they've had their bye week. Uh, so over their last 20 games now, 4 and 16 against the spread for the Tennessee Titans. Whoa, oh, that's bad, that's really bad. Uh, will that continue? Maybe. Last year I didn't think it was gonna continue, so I, so I kept betting the Titans, and then they kept losing and not covering. Uh, so I learned my lesson there. Uh, the Buccaneers are taking on the Bills, uh, on Sunday, and obviously these two teams don't play against each other very often. Uh, but when they have, the Buccaneers have gotten the better of the Bills, 81 and 1 against the spread in their last 10 games against the Bills. So not only are they winning these games, they're also covering the spread. Uh, that stat means pretty much nothing considering, uh, you know, 10 games ago between the Buccaneers and Bills, that would have been what, mid 2000s probably. Uh, so it doesn't mean anything with these two teams, just is a little bit of an interesting, uh, nugget to keep in mind ahead of Sunday's games. Uh, and another one for the Bills though, uh, maybe they can buck that trend because the Bills are 14-1 straight up in their last 15 home games. Uh, so they are favorable. Against the Buccaneers on Sunday, but certainly not a favorite enough where it's gonna be like an automatic win for the Bills, especially considering they lost as a big favorite last week, but they have had plenty of success on their home field over the past couple of seasons, 14 and 1 in their last 15 games. So that's a good news, uh, for their Sunday's game against Tampa Bay. Chargers and Jaguars, uh, play this weekend in a game that has a lot of implications when it comes to the playoff pitcher for both teams. Uh, the Chargers though, have had a lot of success against the Jaguars the past number of years. Not only are they beating them, they're covering the spread. 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh, love the Chargers in that spot. You guys have heard me talk about the Jaguars. I think they're. One of the more overrated teams in the NFL and Trevor Lawrence stinks. Uh, the Steelers, um, good news for Steelers fans. Uh, I know last week didn't go well against the Chargers, but you are home now against the Cincinnati Bengals, and you are 8-3 against the spread in your last 11 home games. Uh, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers, despite being kind of an above-average team every year, has historically done really well on the. Home field. So that's good news for them in what is a pivotal game against the Bengals. They cannot afford to lose that game. The Steelers are 5.5 point home favorites. Uh, the Rams taking on the Seahawks in what is, in my opinion, the game of the week, uh, battle for not only the top spot in the NFC West, but the winner of that game will also be in contention for the number 1 seed in the NFC. Uh, good news for Rams fans, uh, Sean McVeh. has dominated the Seahawks team over the years, 8-1 against the spread in the last 9 meetings between these two NFC West teams. Obviously, Mike McDonald, the Seahawks head coach, has not been there for all 9 of those games, but Sean McVeigh has. Uh, we'll see if the Sean McVeigh magic can continue, uh, in the Mike McDonald era, 8-1 against the spread in the last 9 meetings between those two teams . Switching over to the AFC West, the Denver Broncos, we all know they have a home field advantage at Mile High. Uh, well, just to kind of put that, uh, into perspective, they have won 10 straight home games. Uh, so you have to go back to last season since the last time they lost on their home field. Uh, they will hope that trend continues when they take on the Chiefs, and the Broncos are 4.5, 3.5 point underdogs. In that game, uh, not only do they have a great, uh, winning streak going on at home, but also they've kind of quietly dominated the Chiefs, maybe not winning games over the past number of years, but they have covered the spread at a high rate, 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games against the Chiefs. I know a few of those they covered as underdogs, but, uh, good teams win, great teams cover. Uh, so let's see if the Broncos can cover once again against the defending. AFC champions and the team that has won the AFC West for 9 straight seasons. Then finally, one more trend for you all for Sunday Night Football. It is the Lions and the Eagles. If you want to root for points, this is good news for you. The Over has hit in 9 straight meetings between the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh, and also, maybe we can expect that again. I know low scores. Game for the Eagles on Monday night. Uh, but when they take on the Lions, two very good offenses, maybe we'll see, uh, another high scoring affair. So 9-0, the over is in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. The total for Sunday Night Football is set at 46.5. So, uh, not too high of a total either if you want to bet on the over. Uh, but those have been the top 11 betting trends for NFL week 11. All right, it's about time I addressed last night's bet. Uh, it was on UMass plus 11.5. Uh, and I said while breaking down the pick yesterday, uh, this is a dumb bet, it's stupid. Uh, I'm on a cold streak, why am I betting on the worst team in college football? I'm gonna do it anyways, and then UMass lost, uh, by 40 points. You were warned. You were. I, I, I know, and I did it anyways. It was stupid . Uh, and immediately, when Northern Illinois went down to score. I was watching the game. Actually, I was surprised I could watch it in Canada, but I, it was on TSN. Um, I was like, yeah, well, that bet lost, that was dumb. Uh, so, this is, these are the signs of just being on a cold streak is you big brain some bets, you overthink them. I certainly overthought UMass. Uh, and then another sign of being on a cold streak is betting on the NHL, you lose games in overtime. That's what happens when you're on cold streaks. It's now happened two straight, uh, days of lost a game in in overtime. Last night it was the Blackhawks, plus 132 underdog. Looked like a great bet. They're winning 1-0, and then they're winning again at 2-1. They're, then then they're winning again at 3-2. Devils, uh, tied it late and then won in overtime. That's just what happens when you're on a cold streak. So we lost UMass, we lost Blackhawks, we lost, um, the under between Wizards and Rockets, which wasn't even close. Uh, Rockets had like 85 points at halftime. It was nuts. We did win Toledo, and credit to me, I did call Toledo my best bet of the night. Uh, so that did soften the blow a little bit, but still, regardless, uh, a losing night nonetheless, we are down now, uh, minus $99.80. So we are just below, uh, that $100 mark, so we. You have to have a winning night tonight, please. I don't want it to be negative triple digits, please. Uh, thankfully, we have NFL to bet on tonight. I really actually like my plays for tonight. Uh, so let's get into them. Uh, I'm gonna start with my best bet for Thursday Night Football. It is the Patriots -12.5 and -118. Uh, I wish I could use the line from earlier this week, uh, but I can't. Uh, I gotta use the most up to-date line, so I will take the 12.5-118. You all know that the Patriots are far better than the Jets, that's not breaking news to anyone. If you don't think that's true, then I would, uh, suggest that you open your eyes and watch some of these games. Uh, but the reason why I think the Jets , or sorry, the Patriots win this game by a ton, is this is also a stylistic nightmare for the New York Jets. Because, uh, you can move the ball through the air against the Patriots. The , their secondary is not the best, but they do have an elite run defense. Uh, one of the truly best run, uh, run defense in the NFL. They actually haven't allowed a single rusher to rush for 54 yards or more all season. Uh, but the issue with the Jets is they can't throw the ball. So they don't have the ability to exploit the one weakness the Patriots have. They actually throw for 19 fewer passing yards than any other, uh, team in the NFL. That's 19 per game. Uh, Justin Fields can't throw the ball. We all know. So that they can run the ball, but they're not gonna be able to find success running the ball against arguably the best run defense in the NFL. So, not only are the Patriots significantly better, but also, uh, the stylistic advantage, uh, goes in New England's direction. So I will lay the 12.5 points at -118 against the New York Jets. Uh, my player prop for this game, I'm gonna bet on the Patriots running back, but a little bit more of a unique bet. Uh, I'm gonna take, uh, Trayvon Henderson, his longest rush to be over 14.5 yards at -130. He's an explosive running back. This is what we all knew about him, and this is what we've seen from him in the past couple of weeks now that Mike Vrabel's finally giving him the ball. Uh, he has, has, has had at least a rush of 20 or more yards in two of his last 3 games, and we don't even need a 20 yard rush this game. Just a 15-yard rush would be good enough. And also he's taken on a Jets defense which has allowed the 5th most rushes of 20+ yards with a 3rd most rushes of 40+ yards with. Three this season. Uh, and also I think the Patriots are gonna rely on the run game and what could potentially be a blowout. Uh, usually teams will lean on the run game in the second half. So, uh, we just need Trayvon Henderson to, uh, bust off a big run here, longest rush over 14.5 yards at minus 130. Switching over to the NHL, uh, my new strategy is to just bet against the Maple Leafs. Um, I know there's some advanced metrics that show maybe they're not a terrible team, but I have now watched this team with my own eyes enough. They are actually broken. They can't play defense. Their stars aren't. Putting any effort. Their coaches are not good. Their, uh, defensive coach is clueless. Um, and now they are taking on the, uh, Kings, and the Kings are only slight favorites. Um, Kings at -118. So we'll back the LA Kings in Toronto tonight at -118. Also, it is worth noting the. Leafs are allowing the most goals in the NHL. 32nd out of 32 teams, 3.8 goals per 60 minutes. And also, Austin Matthews is out tonight as well. I didn't mention that. Austin Matthews, uh, their best goal scorer is also out of the lineup tonight. So, uh, it is truly a disaster in that Leafs locker room. Uh, for the foreseeable future, I will just be betting against the Leafs every time they play. Especially tonight, can be the Kings -118. I'm also gonna be betting on, betting on the Dallas Stars who are slight underdogs in Montreal. I'll take the Stars -104. Uh, I know the Canadians are in first place in the Atlantic Division. I get it. Their shooting's been very good, their goaltending's been very good. I don't think they deserve to be favorites against a very good Dallas Stars team. If you want some metrics to back it up, these two teams are 7th and 27th in expected goal differential. Uh, obviously favoring the Stars, 15th and 30th in high danger scoring chances, 12th and 18th in high danger scoring chances allowed. So all the advanced metrics favor the Stars. We know they're a better team, uh, and I'm very surprised to see that they're slight underdogs here against the Canadians. So I'll take. The Stars, -104 against Les Abitants. Uh , all right, let's take a look to see how much money I have to bet with tonight. Now, I do believe, uh, I do get an extra $25 because of the immaculate grid from yesterday's show. Oh, look, here we go. They held up their end of the bargain. I have $125 to bet on tonight. Uh, it's not Monopoly money, it is Canadian dollars. Um, this does make me a little bit nervous, but this does give me a great opportunity. If we have a big night tonight, we can get back in the positive. Um, I feel very good about the Patriots covering against the Jets. I know underdogs have had their day on Thursday Night Football this season. I think it's time for a favorite to win big. I'm putting $50 on the Patriots to cover against the New York Jets. Uh, that leaves me with $75. I'll go 25 the rest of the three. So 75 on Patriots minus 12.5 minus 118, 25 on Trayvon Henderson, longest rush over 14.5 yards, 25 on Kings, 25 on the Dallas Stars against the Montreal Canadiens. Those are my picks, and this has been Play It Safe, presented by FanDuel. Stick around, cause we still have the parlay of the day. Let's wrap things up with the parlay of the day. We are still trying to advance past the three-leg portion of the parlay peak. My goal is still to complete the parlay peak by the end of 2025, but I have some work to do. We were so close last night, 20 to 3. Connor Bedard scored the first goal of the game for the Blackhawks, that checked off that leg. Uh, the other was, uh, Utah, who came back and beat the Buffalo Sabres. All we needed were the Heat to defeat the. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who their entire team was hurt, and the Heat were winning the whole game, and then the Cavaliers outscored them by like 25 points in the 4th quarter to come back and win. So unfortunately, for a parlay, you gotta hit all three legs, and we did not do that last night. So I'm still, for the 4th show, trying to get a 3-leg parlay. Uh, thankfully, we have Thursday Night Football tonight to try to get it done. Uh, so I actually have 2 legs involved with Thursday Night Football, and then I also have a hockey pick. So let's start. With like two Thursday Night Football leagues. The New England Patriots, we know they are 12.5 point favorites, but for the sake of the parlay, we are gonna take that down to -9.5. We're gonna buy a few points. Uh, that means the Patriots just have to win by double digits and we'll be good there. The leg on that is -178. As always, a reminder, I Have to make every leg at least -250 or longer. I don't wanna make it too easy on myself. So -178 fits comfortably in there. Uh, we're also gonna take the Patriots running back, Trayvon Henderson to score a touchdown. Uh, his touchdown odds are minus, I believe, -1 -180 tonight, still well within. Uh, the rules that I've set for myself, so those are the two legs for Thursday Night Football. I feel very comfortable about those two legs. Uh, I didn't really love anything else for Thursday Night Football, so I'm gonna toss in a hockey pick. We got the Vegas Golden Knights who are, who are at home to the New York Islanders. Talked about the Islanders a lot on the show, they just play backyard hockey. Undisciplined, they create a lot of scoring opportunities, but overall, very undisciplined hockey, bad defensive hockey. You can't play that style of hockey against a team as good as the Vegas Golden Knights. I think the Golden Knights will win on their home ice at -184. You parlay all those, all those together at FanDuel, you got a parlay of +2238, plus 238, uh, is this parlay. Obviously, odds are subject to change, but there you go, a little three-leg parlay for tonight, two legs for Thursday Night Football. And a little NHL bet to top it off, plus 238. Let's try to take the next step on the parlay peak. Thank you for tuning in to today's episode of Making Mos with Mac presented by FanDuel. Best of luck to all of your bets tonight, and I will see you all tomorrow.