Making Moves | November 17, 2025

Happy Monday, everyone. Welcome to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. It is Monday, November 17th, and we gotta recap this past weekend's sports betting action. Also get you set up for tonight's Monday Night Football game. All that and more coming up. Let's take a look at the top headlines in the sports betting world from this past weekend, starting with a congratulations to the Saskatchewan Rough Riders for winning the Grey Cup up here in Canada that took place last night. The Rough Riders took down the Montreal Alouettes by a final score of 25 to 17 behind 302 passing yards, uh, from. Uh, Trevor Harris, um, Alouette's kind of always within range but never, uh, could really close the gap, uh, on the Rough Riders. So, uh, congratulations to the Rough Riders. Had to shout them out. Uh, it'd be un-Canadian of me not to, but now we can move on, uh, from the CFL season. It is officially, uh, in the books , uh, and we can take a look at some women's college basketball in the United States. Uh, congratulations to Scranton. Uh, yes, I think the Scranton from the office. I think it's that same town or city. Uh, they just upset Pitt. Uh, Scranton is a division 3 team, took down Pitt in one of the biggest upsets you will see. Uh, we talked earlier, uh, in the year when a Division 2 team, uh, for the men's college basketball took down Boise State. Uh, well, Scranton is not only Division 2, they're division 3, and they took down Pitt, excuse me , over the weekend by a final score of 69 to 63. Same situation, Ian. Look that Pitt Scranton so rare that I think we have a screenshot. It's like hardly even covered. Uh, yeah, I, I can't imagine many fans get to Scranton games or that they have, uh, any pitchers whatsoever. So yeah, screenshot once again. I don't know what's going on with Division 2 and Division 3 teams this year. They're taking down all these, uh, Division 1 teams in college basketball, both on the men's and women's side. Uh, once again, same situation with the Division 2 game earlier this year. We didn't, we didn't have betting odds from the game, so I don't know actually how big of an upset it was, and I have read that apparently Scranton is a Division 3 powerhouse, uh, not just any Division 3 team, so, but still, Division 3 taking down, uh, you know, uh, uh, Division 1 school is huge, especially when that school comes from a power conference like Pitt does. So shout out to Scranton. Um, yeah, just like, uh, just from the, I think it's from that same city in Pennsylvania, I think, of course, they were all over Twitter yesterday, uh, when that upset happened. Uh, PGA Tour, no winners for me this week, uh, for the world of golf, but Adam Schenk, uh, won at 100 to 1 the Bermuda championship. Uh, very odd, it gotta be the worst name of all time for a golfer, Adam Schenk, uh, shank a shot. Uh, he, the no shanks from Adam Schenk over the weekend, ended up winning the Bermuda championship. Uh, they had to deal with a ton of bad weather over the weekend. The wind. Uh, it was crazy in the final round. I saw someone hit a 5 iron for a 135 yard shot. If you don't know golf, a 5 iron would typically go between like 200, 215 yards . Uh, the wind was so bad, they had to use a 5 iron to hit it 135 yards. So, uh, crazy conditions down in Bermuda. Uh, Adam Schenk, uh, wins by a score of 12 under par for the tournament. Uh, just a 1 stroke win for Adam Schenk. And anyone who bet him, 100 to 1, pretty nice, uh, payout there. Uh, over in Europe, or I should say the Middle East, uh, in Abu Dhabi, uh, Matt Fitzpatrick won the DP World Tour championship. He was listed at 16 to 1. I bet him a few weeks ago on the DP World Tour. Apparently it was a couple of weeks too soon on betting on Matt Fitzpatrick. Uh, but he won the, uh, final event on the DP World Tour season. Rory McIlroy won the season-long competition. Race to Dubai. So Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick, the two winners over in the DP World Tour. Uh, over on for some UFC 322 action, uh, we talked about, uh, that match, uh, with Doug Vasquez or that card with Doug Vasquez on Friday. Uh, the two favorites in the two big fights ended up coming through. Valentina Shevchenko defeated, uh, uh, Weilei Zhang in the women's co-main event. Uh, for the flyweight championship, Wei Lei Zhang was trying to become a two division champ, but Shevchenko just too good, won by a 5-round decision. Uh, and in the main event, Islam Makhayev, uh, defeated Jack Dilla Madalina and uh also a 5-round decision, but he did accomplish, uh, the feat of now he is a 2 division champion. He was the lightweight champion for a long time, he abandoned that belt, moved up to welterweight. Which I talked about on Friday is a pretty significant jump. That's a 15 pound difference, uh, but those 15 pounds did not matter. He defeated the defending championship, uh, champion Jack Dilla. Madalena. He is now gonna be in the conversation for the GOAT 28-1 overall record for Islam Mikhayev. Two division champion. Uh, he is, uh, in pretty rare ground there, uh, for the, uh, for the UFC. You don't see too many two division champions. Uh, what, gotta be single digit two division champions in the history of the UFC. Uh, so congratulations. to him. Congratulations to Valentina Shevchenko. Uh, no congratulations to the Toronto Maple Leafs who lost again over the weekend. Uh, we lost to the Chicago Blackhawks. Uh, and now, uh, for us Maple Leafs fans, I have bad news. The Maple Leafs are now underdogs to make the NHL playoffs. What an absolute. Disaster of a season. Hop on the wagon for, no, I am not going to hop on the Montreal Canadians wagon. Canadian, by the way, Canadians minus 135 favorites to make the playoffs. So this is just a disa truly a disaster of a season for the Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs minus 130 to miss the NHL playoffs for the first time since . I don't even, when was the last time they missed the playoffs? 20 2014, 2015? Uh, Austin Matthews' first year, I think they just missed out on the playoffs. Uh, not good, uh, for the Toronto Maple Leafs. It is a disaster there. They need to fire their head, their head coach , and especially their defensive coach and try to move on. Uh, but regardless, uh, yeah, tough news for us Maple Leafs fans. Switching over to the NBA, good news for fans of the Detroit Pistons. 9. Game winning streak, uh, after the weekend, so Pistons, not a team, uh, that a lot of people thought were gonna be contenders in the Eastern Conference. I think we all had them pegged in as playoff teams. Uh, but their odds have improved. They are now 11 to 1 to win the Eastern Conference. Still long shots, but their odds have improved. That's only behind the Cavaliers, Knicks, Magic, and 76ers. So they're now 5th on the odds list to win the Eastern Conference. They have leapfrogged the likes of the Celtics, the Hawks, and the Bucks. Uh, so good news for fans of Pistons. Fought 9 straight wins, sitting in first place right now. Relatively easy start to their schedule, to be fair. Uh, but still, 9 wins is 9 wins. It does not matter who you face, and that is the sign of a good team if you beat the teams that you're supposed to. Uh, finally, we'll wrap up with some college basketball before we dive a little bit deeper into the NFL and college football. Uh, feast week starts this week. It, uh, goes from now. Until the end of Thanksgiving, American Thanksgiving, that is, so the end of next weekend. If you don't know what feast week is, you have a ton of tournaments across the country, uh, for college basketball, and FanDuel actually has, uh, some odds, uh, for feast week if you're interested. Uh, the player, players Era Festival, uh, which is a tournament that will start, uh, I believe this one starts next week. Pretty good field, Houston, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Kansas, just. Name a few. Houston, 3 to 1 favorite to win that tournament. You also have the Maui Invitational, uh, with the likes of NC State, Texas, USC, Arizona State, Boise State. NC State, the Wolfpack are the favorite to win the Maui Invitational. That's always a fun one to watch. They're + 180 to, to win that one. You have Battle for Atlantis. Uh, you have Vanderbilt -150 to win that one. Not as good of a field as the other two. Vanderbilt, Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech, VCU, South Florida. So Vanderbilt already an odds-on favorite to win that tournament. Uh, so feast week begins today. A little bit slow to start. It really kind of gets into the meat of it, uh, next week, uh, but it is worth noting, uh, for you college basketball fans and betters feast week about to begin. Some of the, probably the second best part of the year. It's probably March Madness, but, uh, right behind March Madness feast week . We all love it as basketball fans and betters. Let's take a look at some updated odds after this past weekend's college football action, starting with Fernando Mendoza, who is now, uh , created a little bit of separation on Julian Say in, in the odds to win the Heisman Trophy. He's even money, plus 100, so just a touch below 50% chance to win the Heisman Trophy after his performance against Wisconsin this past week and a very good Wisconsin team. He. 22 of 24 passes, 299 yards, 4 touchdowns. Uh, so Fernando Mendoza of Indiana up to even money to win the Heisman Trophy. Julian Saan still right behind him at 2 to 1. Marcel Reed still in the mix at plus 550. He's a quarterback for Texas A&M. Uh, and then it looks like it is just a three-man race because they have a pretty big gap before, uh, Diego Pavia of Vanderbilt who comes in, uh, at 15 to 1. Uh, we have seen Alabama. Uh, probably the only bet I hit this entire weekend was my upset pick on Oklahoma to take down Alabama. Uh, they won that game and now Alabama's odds have plummeted. Uh, they are still likely to make the college football playoffs, so no concern there. Uh, but with that loss, that knocks them out of contention to be. A top 4 seed likely in the college football playoff, and obviously that being a top 4 seed comes with a first-round by and just makes your path quite a bit easier. Uh, so Alabama's odds all the way down to 15 to 1 now to win the national championship. That's 123456, that's 8th on the odds list to win the national championship, but Like I said, good news, still -225, uh, to make the college football playoff. Uh, they might now, uh, may not make it into the SEC championship game though. Uh, if we bring up their SEC, uh, championship odds, yeah, 3 on the odds list, they have fallen below Georgia. Uh, who is now 2nd on the odds list at 240 behind at Texas, uh, A&M. Uh, speaking of Texas A&M, they avoided a complete disaster this past weekend. Alabama would have definitely would have been rooting for, uh, Texas A&M to lose. They were down to South Carolina at halftime and then stormed back for the biggest second-half comeback in SEC history, at least dating back to 2004 was the number that I saw. They were down 30 to 3 at halftime. Came back to win 31-30. Uh, South Carolina did not score a single point in the second half. That was a real Falcons-esque, uh, blown lead by South Carolina, the Gamecocks. So Texas A&M won that game. They now, uh, have held on to their number 3 spot in the AP poll, held on to being favorites to win the SEC and held on to the national championship odds of 750, which is good for third on the odds list. If you're curious, Ohio State still favored of +185, Indiana behind them. Uh, at 5 to 1. Uh, speaking of the college football playoff, Texas, their college football playoff hopes have likely died now. Uh, they did not even compete with Georgia. The Georgia Bulldogs completely steamrolled, uh, rolled them, and as a result, the Texas Longhorns are now 18 to 1 to make the college football playoff. They will not have any chance of making the SEC championship game. Uh, so now Texas, all they can really root for now is a bowl game and maybe they can , uh, end their season on a high note. Uh, I think this does now confirm Arch Manning probably gonna come back to play one more year of college football cause he's not gonna be the number one overall pick like a lot of people thought, uh, he was gonna be heading into the season. So, uh, just a disastrous season for the team that was, if you don't remember, the preseason favorite to win the national championship. Now they're not even gonna make the college football playoffs. Uh, the, my favorite race of the year, I keep on talking about it almost every day. It is the race to see which school will represent the group of five conferences in the college football playoff. I love an underdog story. Uh , so that is why I like following which team is gonna, uh, be that team. It was South Florida. They were the favorites this past weekend, but South Florida lost to Navy on Saturday. So as a result, their chances of winning the AAC and making the college football playoff, uh, are basically gone. It's now largely a two-team race. It is North Texas who is the favorite at -114 to make the college football playoffs. They will be in the AAC championship game, and if they win, uh, that conference championship game, that could be enough to get them in there. Uh, but, uh, it is James Madison who's right behind them at +186. James Madison still has a game against Washington State coming up, uh, which is gonna be a tough one for them. But if they can get past Washington State, uh, there's a chance that, that it will be them who gets, uh, That spot in the college football playoff. It'll be interesting to see when the college football playoff rankings are released tomorrow because the AP poll has James Madison ranked as the highest, uh, group of five teams, but the AP poll has not yet ranked James Madison. No respect, uh, for the Dukes. Uh, so we'll see if that changes on Tuesday when the college football playoff rankings are released. Uh, so that's it for college football playoff. We're already heading into week 13 of the college football season. NFL week 11 is largely in the books. We still got Monday Night Football left to go tonight, but last night, the Sunday Night Football game between the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles, uh, the Eagles came out on top in another defensive battle. Uh, the Eagles still lots of offensive issues, but their defense, uh, doesn't let anyone score. What kept the Lions to 9 points last night, kept the Packers to single digits the week before, uh, only 7 points the week before. So I mean, the Eagles might be on their way to winning. Another Super Bowl if their defenses doesn't allow any team to get double-digit points, and as a result, the Eagles are now favorites to win the Super Bowl at 5 to 1. Uh, obviously massive favorites to win the NFC East all the way up to $-20000. You would have to bet $20,000 to win $100 on the Eagles winning, uh, the division, uh. Division. Obviously, if they're favorites to win the Super Bowl, they're gonna be favorites to win the NFC at + 230, and they are favorites to be the number 1 seed in the NFC at the end of the regular season. Actually, the odds-on favorite at -125 as well. So everything is coming up Eagles, a big win for them last night in what could end up being a preview of the NFC, uh, championship game. Uh, bad news for Patriots fans. Oh, no, Matt Stafford is now the, uh, is now alone atop the odds to win NFL MVP at +135 after his performance, uh, this past weekend against the Seahawks. Drake May still very close behind him, + 175, Josh Allen plus 450. Jonathan Taylor has fallen to 9 to 1 . The Colts were on by, so he couldn't really do anything to improve his odds, but it is looking. like a two-man race between Matt Stafford and Drake May, and I talked about this last week. I do think Stafford has, uh, kind of the storylines backing him. He's a guy who's been an MVP caliber quarterback his entire career, has a Super Bowl, but has never won MVP, and this is probably his last shot. So, that's gonna get some brownie points, I think, from, uh, the, uh, awards of voters. So I think he is deserving of being a +135 favorite to win. NFL MVP. Uh, speaking of the Rams though, the Rams' Super Bowl odds have taken a significant leap. Now they are, uh, second on the odds list to win the Super Bowl at 600 after defeating the Seahawks in what was a pivotal game in the NFC West. Not only are they 6 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, they're also favorites now to win the NFC West at -230. That game could be the deciding factor in the. The odds certainly indicate, uh, that could be the case. Seahawks have fallen to 290 to win the NFC West. And if anyone takes down the Eagles to be the number one seed in the NFC, it's likely going to be the Rams. Because right now, the odds to be the number one seed is the Eagles minus 125, the Rams plus 195, and then a huge gap before the Seahawks at 10 to 1. So, uh, big, big, big win for the Rams. On Sunday. Also a big win for the Denver Broncos, who are now odds on favorites to win the AFC West-240. Uh, the Chiefs are obviously trying to, uh, win their 10th straight AFC West title. Uh, but with the Broncos now -240 favorites, that gives them an implied probability of 70.59% of ending the Chiefs AFC West reign at 9 years. Uh, Chiefs now, uh, not only, uh, have they, have they fallen down. Uh, to being 2nd on the A list to win the AFC West, but they, they might miss the playoffs entirely, which is kind of crazy. To say they are on the outside looking in of the playoff pitcher. Uh, they were kind of, uh, actually, the Jaguars beating the Chargers didn't help them either. Uh, but the good news for a Chiefs fan is, uh, they're still -220 to make the playoffs. So the betting market still thinks the Chiefs have around a 68% chance of playing in the postseason. Uh, but getting home field, uh, getting the buy is basically completely. Out of the question, even being, uh, having a home game in the first round seems like a bit of a long shot now. So the Chiefs, uh, have a long path ahead of them if they want to return to the Super Bowl for what feels like the 15th year in a row. Week 11 of the NFL will wrap up with Monday Night Football tonight. Uh, not exactly the most exciting or impactful game in the world, but it is a game that we can watch and bet on. It is the Dallas Cowboys hitting the road to. Take on the Las Vegas Raiders in an interconference matchup. Uh, the Cowboys are set as 3.5 point road favorites. The over-under for the game is set at 49.5. So if that's any indication, it could be at least be a fun game in terms of plenty of points, uh, which has kind of been the story of the Cowboys' season, all offense, no defense. Uh, so if that continues tonight, we could see a high scoring affair. Uh, if you want to bet on the touchdown. Market, Javonta Williams, the running back for the Dallas Cowboys, is the favorite to find the end zone at -170. I would not lay that price on the Cowboys' running back to score, uh, especially cause the Raiders' defense is not horrific, and also, uh , the Cowboys have some options at that position, and they do like to throw the ball as well. So that's a pretty steep price, I think, to be honest, for the Cowboys running back to score -170. I would look in a different direction. Uh, for, uh, the touchdown market, uh, Dak Prescott trying to drag the Cowboys back into potentially competing for a wild card spot in the NFC, but he has his work cut out for him. His passing yards total for tonight's game is set at 254.5. Uh, so if the Cowboys want to win, they need to have Dak Prescott to go over that total and have a big game tonight. I do have two bets for this game, but you gotta stick around till the end of the show and I'll break them down. With NFL week 11 mostly in the books pending tonight's Monday Night Football game, time for me to buy low and sell high on some teams and players. I'm gonna start with what might just be my favorite buy low spot of the entire NFL season so far. It is the Kansas City Chiefs, which is an obvious buy low team right now, but I do think it's worth investing a little bit, uh, in the Chiefs. It is a very strange season for the Chiefs because last year they finished 15 and 2. Uh, but their metrics were bad. They were really average in most areas, actually, if you look at like net yards per play, they had a minus number for net yards per play. Their DVOA was average at best, uh, but yet they played to a 15-2 record and then ended up going to the Super Bowl. That just goes to show how much variance is involved in outcomes in the National Football League. This year, we have the complete opposite, the Chiefs. By almost every metric, are a better team this year than they were last year, but yet they're 5 and 5 and are kind of in danger of missing the playoffs. So, I'm gonna trust the underlying metrics, the fact that they look like, uh, from a numbers perspective, a far better team than they were last year. I think betting on them to win their division, to win the AFC West, uh, is worth a wager plus 490. Cause I don't believe in the Broncos. The Broncos' offense still looks bad, even in yesterday's win against the Chiefs, the Broncos' offense looked bad. They are a far different team on the road than at home. Uh, so the Chiefs plus 490 to win the AFC West. Also, if you want to get in on them to win the Super Bowl, I mean, how can you discount Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the playoffs? They just do it every single year. Uh, 10 to 1 right now to win the Super Bowl, or just to even get back to the Super Bowl, 5 to 1 to win the AFC. Uh, I think it's time to buy low on the Kansas City Chiefs. Trust me when I say this is still a very, very good football team, and I think they're gonna prove it, uh, in the final stretch of the regular season. Uh, speaking of the AFC West, I'm gonna sell high on the Denver Broncos for the reasons I just said. Yes, their defense is elite, there's no arguing that. I'm not gonna sit here and tell you that their entire team is bad. But to go on deep runs, to go and win a Super Bowl, you have to be good on both sides of the football, and the Broncos just quite simply have not been a good offensive team. It's been that way all season. Bo Nix has actually been in the bottom 10 amongst quarterbacks in almost every metric . And if you look at their offensive DVOA numbers, uh, down in the bottom half, uh, of the NFL, uh, moving forward. So 18th in the NFL right now in offensive DVOA. So, I'm selling the Broncos. I don't think they win the AFC West, even if they do, I don't think they're gonna make an impact in the NFL playoffs. So I'm selling my stock on the Denver Broncos. I'm gonna buy in on the Seattle Seahawks. Yes, I know they lost to the Rams in a game that I had their money line. I wish I would have just taken the 3 points of the Seahawks. That would've been a winner. Uh, and I know now they have kind of lost control of the NFC West, but I still do think the Seahawks are a very good team. I think they outplayed the Rams in that game. Uh, now, Sam Darnold did throw 4 interceptions. That is the Sam Darnold that we've seen before, uh, and we need that version of Sam Darnold to not show up in the playoffs. But still, regardless, the numbers show the Seahawks team is one of the very best in the NFL, not only offensively. Defensively, but also on special teams. And like I said, I think they outplayed the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Just some bounces went the Rams' way. So if you still want to get in on some Rams or on some Seahawks futures, you can, uh, bet on them at plus money to win the NFC West. You can still bet on them to win the Super Bowl. That's some nice odds. Uh, where are they to win the Super Bowl here? 12 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, you can bet them at, so. I'm still buying low. I'm buying in on the Seahawks despite uh that tough loss to the Rams, uh, yesterday. Missed what would have been a game-winning 61 yard field goal to close out the game. Uh, I'm selling high on the Jaguars. I don't get this team. I don't, I, every number that I look at tells me the Jackson Jaguars are, Jacksonville Jaguars are a bad football team, that Trevor Lawrence is a bad quarterback, but yet they continue to find ways to win games. I think this just comes down to variance in what happens when you have a, uh, professional sports regular. Season that only lasts 17 games. Sometimes you have bad teams, have some bounces go their way, and then all of a sudden, they look like a good team with a strong record. I still don't think the Jaguars are a good team from top to bottom, uh, including, uh, offensively, including their quarterback. Only 15th right now, this team is in DVOA. Uh, so if you want to fade the Jaguars like I'm going to, you can bet on them to miss the playoffs. That's some nice plus money odds, I believe, uh, for the Jaguars to miss the playoffs, plus 146 for them to miss the playoffs. Uh, I believe, uh, you can fade them this weekend. They're taking on another team. I think I've already placed that. Bet. Who is it they play in week 12? They play the Cardinals in week 12, the Cardinals at home. I think that's gonna be a great spot to sell high on this Jaguars team. I'm owed on the Jaguars. I still haven't seen enough, uh, even despite their dominant win against the Chargers on Sunday. I am selling on the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'm gonna buy in on Ted McMillon, uh, the rookie wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers. Last night on Sunday night, Ted McMillen was still listed at 9 to 1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. This morning on Monday morning, he was 5 to 1, and now, as of right now, plus 4:30 for Ted McMillen to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Uh, we should have bet on it last night. Uh, I couldn't get the message out, but, uh, even at 4:30, I think that is a good buy-in spot in Tet McMillan. Obviously not as attractive as 9 to 1, but the reason why I like him is that Emeka Ibuka, the rookie wide receiver for the Buccaneers, is the 110 favorite. But Ted McMillan has had better odds. He has 9 more receptions than Ibuka. He has, uh, uh, about 35 more receiving yards than Egbuka. Uh, now, Ibuka does have 2 more touchdowns, 6 touchdowns, 2 McMillans, 4 touchdowns, but still, uh, the numbers are, if not better, at least very similar between these rookie wide receivers, yet the odds are still significantly different. And if Bryce Young can play the rest of the season. Season like he did yesterday. Now, that was against the Falcons, and he seems to always have good games against the Falcons, so who knows if that'll translate to a strong second half of the season. But Bryce Young looked fantastic. If he can continue to feed the ball to Ted McMillan, uh, I think, uh, we're gonna see his odds only shorten as the weeks go on. So I would say now is your last chance to get in on Ted McMillan to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +4:30. And then finally, I'm gonna sell on Lamar Jackson, which is kind of crazy to say. Now, obviously, I'm not gonna say he's bad, um, but I, maybe that injury is affecting him a little bit more because yes, the Ravens have won 3 straight games now, uh, since the bye week, but, uh, his performances have not been efficient. Two weeks ago against the Vikings, completed just 58.6% of passes. Yeah. Yesterday, Sunday against the Browns has completed 56% of passes, 2 interceptions, no passing touchdowns, uh, only 193 yards through the air. So Lamar Jackson not looking like his former MVP self. So I may be looking to fade Lamar Jackson in the prop market moving forward. I'm selling on the Baltimore Ravens quarterback. As we always do on Monday, I'm gonna reach out to my friend and co-worker, Peter Dewey from SI to get his thoughts on my buying and selling candidates in the NFL. Also, we'll get his best NBA bet for tonight, so let's hit the lines. Hello? Yeah. I like it. Yeah, betting. Alright, let's give Pete a call here, see what he has to say today. Hello. Hey Pete, what's up? What's going on? Not much , my friend. Uh, let's rip through. Let's go a little rapid fire today. I'm gonna name obviously my buying and selling candidates. I'm gonna keep you to two sentences for each answer. OK. All right, buying, selling the Kansas City Chiefs after they lost to your Denver Broncos. I'm still buying. I think they're still gonna make the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is just too good for me to sell on the Chiefs. Yeah, I agree, 10 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I think now is the time you buy in. All right, 1 for 1 today, Pete. Here we go. Seattle Seahawks buying or selling after they lost to the LA Rams. I'm selling him as a Super Bowl contender because I just don't think you can trust Sam Darnold to win multiple playoff games, and I think every time he's in a big game, we've seen it the last two years, this is what happens and I just don't trust him. That is multiple playoff games. That's certainly the number one concern. He was seeing ghosts on Sunday. Alright, buying or selling your Denver Broncos. I know we talked Bo Nix last week, I believe, but what about your Denver Broncos specifically? I'm buying this defense, man. Across the board in in EPA per play and and every other defensive metric you can think of, um, and now they got a two-game cushion in the AFC West, so I think they're in a good spot to be a playoff team and potentially get that first round by. Do you think they hang on to that division lead? I do. I think they're, I don't think the Chargers are gonna pass them, and I think they're enough up on the Chiefs where it would take a pretty epic collapse over the last, uh, 6 games of the season for them to blow it. Alright, buying or selling on the Jacksonville Jaguars after their big win against the Chargers. I'm gonna say bye just as a playoff team because they have that tiebreaker over Kansas City, which I think is really important. And I just, you look at the AFC playoff picture like who is out of the playoffs right now or even counting the Steelers in that's better than them. I think there's just a lot of average teams at the bottom, and I think because they already have 6 wins and that tiebreaker, they, they have a good shot to at least get one of those top 7 spots. All right, can I get you to buy in on Ted McMillan to win Offensive Rookie of the Year? I like it. I like it a lot. He's looked really good. Um, my preseason pick was Travis Hunter, which fell very, very flat. Um, but I like Jackson Dart's hurt, um, Emeka Bua's cooled off. I think there's definitely an argument there for Ted. He was awesome against Atlanta this weekend. All right, and then lastly, are you buying or selling on Lamar Jackson after his performances the past two weeks? I'm still buying. I, he didn't look great, but I mean that Cleveland defense has been really good at home, um, against them just about everybody, and Minnesota is still a pretty decent defense. Uh, he doesn't look as comfortable running the ball right now, which I think is due to the hamstring injury. I'm, I'm still buying Lamar. He's one of the best quarterback. Back in the league, and I, I think the Ravens are gonna win that division. He'll be fine. All right, another similar performance we've agreed on two out of the six ones that I brought up. So once again on opposite sides on almost everything. Uh, Pete, let's finish off with your best NBA bet for, uh, Monday's slate. A lot of games tonight. Yeah, 8 games tonight. Um, I'm looking for at a player prop. I like Karl-Anthony Towns over 2.5 3 pointers against the Miami Heat tonight. Uh, Miami's number 1 in pace. The Knicks and the Heat played actually on Friday and it was 140 to 132, so we should see another high scoring game. Um, the big thing in that game, Kat was 6 for 14 from 3, by far the most 3s he took in a game, and it came with Jalen Brunson and OG and Enobi. Uh, OG and Obi got hurt in the first quarter, but both of them out of the lineup, and Enobi and Brunson are both out again today. I expected a heavy dosage of shots for Kat. Um, and even though he's shooting just. 34.8% from 3 this season, which is way down from his career average. Two games against Miami, he's attempted 22 3 pointers in those two games. So I really like the volume for him here. I think 2.5 is a little low for this line, um, for Kat. All right, Kat, over 2.5 3 pointers. Thanks, Pete. I appreciate it, my friend. Uh, take care. We'll talk again soon. You too, man. I appreciate you having me on. All right. All right, once again, uh, disagreeing with Peter on almost everything. I'm out on the Jaguars, I'm out on Lamar Jackson. Peter's in on both of them, uh, but I do like his NBA bet for tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns over 2.5 3s. I have an NBA bet for tonight as well, a rare NBA pick, but if you want it, you gotta stick around till the end of the show. As always on Monday's show, I gotta wash away my sins from this past week of sports betting, so it is time for sorry, not sorry, starting with, I am very sorry for my NFL picks. Over the weekend, uh, not only the picks I gave out on the show, I did go 0 and 4th my Friday picks, but, uh, if you follow my picks, if you read my SI articles, if you read my weekly road to 272 bets that I write every single week, uh, you know that I went 1 in 12. With my NFL picks on Sunday, 1 in 12, I didn't think that would be possible. people that let them put it together. Maybe don't mention that. Well, I mean, I gotta apologize. Uh, if I don't apologize, then the bad luck's gonna continue. So 1 and 12. Steelers were my only, uh, winner on Sunday. One Thursday Night Football's, uh, bet, uh, but, uh, 1 and 12 on Sunday. Capped off with the Lions money line loss. Seahawks Moline, uh , they covered, should have just taken the points, did not win. Oh right. Uh, I'm not sorry for my college football picks. I know I gave Indiana out on Friday. Uh, they did not cover, they almost did, uh, but didn't, uh, because of a slow start. Um, but I gave you OK Oklahoma to upset Alabama. That was a great upset bet. Uh, what else do you want from me? Uh, I can't do too much with college football. I gave you Oklahoma over Alabama, uh, so I'm not sorry for a couple of other losing college football bets. Uh, I am sorry. Uh, for really the entire player prop countdown, but my number 2 pick was AJ Brown to go under his receiving yards because of what he said on his Twitch stream. He told his fantasy owners to trade him. Uh, it seemed like that Eagles offense was imploding, it seems like he was mad at Jalen Hurts. And then what happened? He had 7 catches on Sunday Night Football, so he went 3 catches over his receptions total. So I'm sorry for AJ Brown. I tried to play armchair psychologist. And I failed. Uh, I'm not sorry for my Cam Award prop bet. I know that did not win, uh, it almost did. Uh, and he was way under his passing yards total until the Titans' very last drive, and then he threw for like 75 yards in that last drive and went over, uh, his passing yards total. I give it out to 188.5, he finished with 194, so only 6 yards over. So I'm actually gonna not apologize for that. Not only Was it close, uh, but if you waited till Sunday to bet that, it was bet all the way down to 177. So it's a sharp bet, it was the right bet, but sometimes even the right bets, uh, don't come through. So, uh, losing bet on Cam Ward, but I'm not gonna apologize for that one. I was on the right side for that one. I am also not sorry, so I'm not gonna put a loony in for backing the Seahawks. I still believe in the Seattle Seahawks. I still think they outplayed the Rams. Unfortunately, Sam Darnold turned into the Sam Darnold of old, and even then, They had a 61 yard field goal attempt to win the game on the last play of the game. Uh, so I still believe in the Seahawks. I'm not apologizing for my Seahawks bet or the fact, uh, that I have, uh, given, uh, I've had confidence in them. I still have confidence in them. Heading down the final stretch of the season, I am sorry for my golf bets. I can't win every week, but I'm sorry my golf bets were largely bad this past weekend. Uh, Ludwig Oberg was pretty close in the DP World Tour event. He was just a couple of strokes back, uh, with the PGA Tour picks were terrible. Uh, Ben Coles finished, uh, almost dead last sort of everyone who made the cut in that one. so I am sorry. For my golf picks from this past weekend. I'm also sorry for my John U Smith touchdown bet, which I gave out in the player prop countdown. He didn't get a single catch. Hard to score a touchdown if you don't get any catches. So it's pretty bad when you're betting on a player to score a touchdown and he ends up with zero overall catches, so I am sorry for that. Uh, also, I'm sorry for, uh, to Falcons fans for wearing. My Kirk Cousins jersey on Friday. That was a bad omen. I cursed the Falcons. They're up by 1 ton. Michael Pennox was looking great, all of a sudden, he got hurt and Kirk Cousins had to come in the game, uh, and maybe it was because I wore his jersey on Friday. I would have liked to not see Kirk Cousins. He came in, could not get 1st downs, allowed the Panthers to come all the way back and eventually win. In overtime, uh, so, yeah, uh, that was bad on me. Uh, I cursed the Falcons. I cursed Michael Pennox by wearing a Kirk Cousins jersey on Friday's show, so I am sorry for that. I'm also sorry, and I'm gonna put the rest in. I'm sorry for not hitting a parlay last week. Three-leg parlays, listen, they're not super easy, but, uh, you should be able to hit a three-leg parlay over the course of 5 days. I did not hit one, so we are still on the 3-leg portion. Of the parlay peak, uh, including on NFL. I gave out three Moneyline favorites all to parlay together and 2 of them lost. Both the Chiefs and the Falcons lost outright. So, I'm determined to take the next step on the parlay peak, but I am sorry for going 0 and 5 with my parlays for last week. This has been, uh, the latest edition of Sorry, and I've had a lot to apologize for today. Uh, so, uh, this has been today's edition of Sorry, Not Sorry. I thought I broke my cold streak with a winning night on Thursday and then followed it up by going, 0 and 4 over the weekend, wow, wow, wow, wow, this is terrible. This is a nightmarish, to, to be completely honest. So, 0 and 4 lost Indiana minus 29.5 against Wisconsin, slow start. They ended up winning, uh, by I think it was like 26 points. They needed one more score late, couldn't get it. Seahawks lost because they. Couldn't, uh, convert a 61 yard field goal, which to be fair , is a long field goal. I could have just taken the points to the Seahawks, it would have been a winner. I got aggressive, took money line. Lions could not beat the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, couldn't score a touchdown, and Cam Ward, uh, went barely over his passing yards total because he threw for like 75 yards on the Titans, uh, final drive. So 0 and 4 minus $100 that brings our season total to. Minus $137.20. So now I have my work cut out for me, cut out for me if I wanna get back into the green this week. Uh, all I can do is, you know, put 1 ft in front of the other and try my best. This is why we gamble responsibly on this show, because, uh, sometimes you go and losing. Streaks. Uh, so you gotta bet within your means, uh, and that, uh, that allows you to kind of take these losses a lot better. Uh, if I was gambling irresponsibly, I would not be in as good of a mood today. Uh, all right, 4 bets for tonight, 2 for Monday Night Football, 1 in the NHL and an NBA player prop. Let's start with Monday Night Football. I'm gonna take The Raiders, plus 3.5 at -115 against the Cowboys. I will back the underdogs here. Um, this is, uh, maybe famous last words, but I don't think the Raiders are as bad as people think they are. I know that's crazy. I'm sounding, you know what this reminds me of when I bet UMass last week, uh, and they lost by 40 points. So, uh, incoming a Cowboys 40-point win. Uh, but Raiders, 19th in the NFL in net yards per play, uh, and they have a net yards per play of plus.2 when playing on their home field. Their defense has also been largely solid this season, far better than the Cowboys' defense, so they do have an advantage . On that side of the football. Also, like I said, it is a home game for them. Uh, the Cowboys' offense is good and good enough to win this game, uh, but I don't necessarily trust them, uh, to win with margin. I, I kinda hesitate to lay the points of the, this Cowboys team cause their defense is so bad, uh, that, uh, it kinda allows the other team to stay in the game. Uh, the Cowboys already have to score almost every time they touch the ball just to win. Uh, so they gotta somehow do more than that if they want to cover a spread as favorites. So I think the Raiders' defense is good enough to keep this within reach a little bit here. I will take the Raiders plus 3.5 minus 115 against the Dallas Cowboys. I'm also gonna bet a player prop for this game. I'm gonna take Jake Ferguson, who I bet on a lot early in the season. This time, I'm going to fade him. I will go Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys tight end, under 4.5 receptions at -108 because the Cowboys are now taking on a Raiders defense that has allowed the 3rd fewest receptions to tight ends this season. They've done a very good job of defending opposing tight ends. In fact, only one tight end this year has racked up 5 or more. Exceptions against this Cowboys defense, that is Chig Okwano had 5 receptions. He is the Titans tight end, had 5 receptions against the Raiders' defense earlier this year. Other than that, every single other tight end that they, that they have faced has been held to 4 or fewer. Also, Jake Ferguson's numbers have dropped from early in the year. If you remember, uh, almost every game for the Cowboys to start the season, he was getting like 12 targets, 13 targets, 11 targets. Uh, those numbers have dropped. He's actually seen, uh, 6 or fewer targets. Uh, over their last handful of games. So I'll go Jake Ferguson under 4.5 receptions at -108. Switching over to the National Hockey League on the ice, I will take the Washington Capitals at -130 against the LA Kings. If I was doing a buy low sell high segment on the NHL, the first thing I would say to buy low in on is, uh, the Washington Capitals, who, uh, I believe are in last place right now in the Metropolitan Division, but Uh, their advanced metrics, their underlying numbers have been very, very good. In fact, they're fifth in the NHL in expected goal differential at +0.52 goals per 60 minutes. They've had some shooting issues, which is why they have the record that they do. They struggle to put the puck in the net. They're creating chances all season, but couldn't capitalize on them. That issue seems to have been fixed. They've been much, doing a much better job of actually scoring in their past few games. Uh, so if their shooting can improve while creating just as many chances as they have throughout the season. I think now is a great time to buy in on them. They are home to the LA Kings tonight, a Kings team which is kind of above average, good but not great. Certainly don't have the advanced metrics as the Capitals do, so I'll take the Washington Capitals -130. And then for an NBA, I do like a player prop for tonight. Uh, Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers, 10+ rebounds at +112. So a little plus money play to wrap things up. Uh, the Cavaliers will be taking on a Milwaukee Bucks team who has struggled to rebound this season, 28th in the NBA in rebounding percentage. Grabbing just 46.5% of boards. Uh, Evan Mobley is already averaging 9 rebounds per game this season, so he only needs to go over his season average by 1, and he also has had double-digit rebounding performances in 5 different games already this season. So Evan Mobley, 10 + rebounds against the Bucks at +112. Those are my 4 bets for tonight. Let's see how much money I have to bet with. I hope it's a $5 bill. No, it's $100. All right, we gotta end the cold streak tonight, my friends. $100.01 step at a time, uh, we take our first step in the journey back to being in the profit tonight. How do I want to bet on this? Um, oh, man. Not the Raiders. No, you're right, I think the Raiders is gonna be my smallest bet. Hockey, hockey is probably gonna be the big, I've had by far the best out of all the sports I'm betting on right now, hockey have done the best thing. I think I go $40. I'm not gonna do $30.30 dollars $20. I'm gonna go $40 on the Capitals minus $130. Um, that leaves me $60. Do I just go $20 everything else? $40.20 dollars, $20.20 dollars. I think that makes sense. So $40 on the Capitals, $20 Raiders, $20 Jake Ferguson under receptions, $20 Evan Mobley, 10 plus rebounds. Those are my bets for tonight. This has been playing it Safe presented by FanDuel. Stick around cause I still have to give out my three-leg parlay for tonight. Let's wrap things up with my parlay of the day. Uh, 0 and 5 on the three-leg parlays last week. I did not hit the NFL parlay on Sunday. It was Falcons, someone else, and Chiefs, and both Falcons and Chiefs lost, so. Gotta hit all three legs and hit a, uh, to hit a three-leg parlay as we try to climb the parlay peak. At least I'm no longer on two-leg parlay, but it could be nice. If we can advance past 3 leg and get to 4 leg parlays, that's when things get fun. Uh, it is worth noting, guess what, it is a good day to have a good day. Uh, I hope that your parlay with good day to have a good day with my parlay. I like that. All right, 3-leg parlay, I'm sticking to Monday Night Football, so it's the same game parlay for Monday Night Football. You already know that I like. 8 is a plus 3.5, and we're gonna buy a few more points for the sake of the parlay. I wanted plus 7.5, but that would have broke my rule where I need uh all three legs to be minus 250 odds or longer. Uh, and Raiders plus 7.5 is like -300, so I couldn't use that, but I will take Las Vegas plus 6.5, which that leg is -184, so we need them to keep it within 6 points against the Cowboys. Tonight. Uh, we are also going to bet on the Raiders star tight end, Brock Bowers. Let's go BB, not Bill Belichick, Brock Bowers, BBTD. How about that? BBTD at -105. Um, so I'm fading Jake Ferguson of the Cowboys when I think Brock Bowers of the Raiders is going to have a big day at tight end. Uh, we just need him to score a touchdown, uh, and then I will take. BTD, oh, no, that's, that's not the letter I wanted to write. I wanted to write C first and then D C D L C D lamb over. 5.5 receptions at -245. So pretty juice lag there, that's CDC Lamb, no, CD win, uh, so yeah, CD Lamb to score to catch at least 6 balls. Raiders plus 6.5, DBTD, which is Brock Bauer's touchdown, CD Lamb over 5.5 receptions. Uh, that's the worst writing job I've ever done. Odds of that are +271, + 271. K, K. That's my three-leg parlay for tonight. This has been Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Best of luck to all of your bets tonight, and I will see you all tomorrow.