Making Moves | November 19, 2025

Happy hump Day, everyone. Welcome to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. It is Wednesday, November 19th, and we have upset picks to talk about for this weekend's college football and NFL action. Also, we're gonna look at the playoff pitcher in both the NFL and college football. All that and more coming up. It's time to take a look at the top headlines in sports betting today. We're gonna start in college basketball today. We're gonna take a look at Michigan State, the Spartans. Tom Izzo's team has been on fire to start the season already 4-0 with wins against two ranked teams. They beat number 14 Arkansas in their second game of the season, but last night, what's even more notable, just crushed Kentucky, who's number 12, uh, right now in the AP poll rankings. 83 to 66, the final score, uh, for Michigan State in, uh, the State Farm. Champions Classic, which is taking place at Madison Square Garden. So Michigan State, already ranked team heading into the season, but maybe we should start looking at them as a legitimate contender to win the national championship. Tom Izzo, one of my favorite coaches of all time. One of my, one of the, one of the last remaining old school coaches out there. I love Tom Izzo. I wanna see him go on one more Final Four run, uh, as coach of Michigan State. Uh, so if you want to get in on them based on 2 wins already against ranked teams, still 30 to 1 at FanDuel to win the national championship, you can bet on. Them to make the Final Four at 650. Uh, so maybe it's time to invest a little bit in Michigan State after last night's big win. Uh, we also had the college football playoff rankings released last night. Uh, and as expected, Alabama fell out of the top 4, which is huge for their chances to win the national championship because as you know, if you finish in the top 4 in the rankings, uh, you get a first-round by, uh, which is massive. But unfortunately, after their loss to Oklahoma this past weekend, Uh, they have fallen out of the top 4. They no longer have a first-round by. It is Georgia who has now leapfrogged them into that spot. Uh, Alabama still favored to make the college football playoff. They'd probably have to lose another tough game. Uh, but I mentioned this yesterday, their odds to win the national championship have now fallen off a cliff, 15 to 1 to win the national championship for Alabama. Tough loss in a lot of different ways by losing to Oklahoma this past weekend. Uh, the King is back. LeBron James made his first start of the NBA season last night for the Lakers. He missed their first, what, 13 games, I think it was, uh, last night. Didn't have a huge performance, uh, but he did, uh, contribute to the Lakers' 140, 126 win over the Utah Jazz, uh, put up 11 points, 33 rebounds, 12 assists. Uh, and if you aren't kind of deep into the sports betting world that I, uh, like I am, there is a trend going on with LeBron James that is, I think, started early last season. Where there are people out there who just bet on him to score at least 10 points. It's massive, massively short odds. You have to lay like $800 to win $100 like minus $800 minus $900 range. Uh, but there are some people out there who have just done it every single game, uh, and I think, uh, it has, it's a multi-year streak now for LeBron James scoring at least 10 points and. All of his appearances, uh, last night was a big one for those guys, uh, cause it didn't start off good. I don't think he scored a single point in the first quarter, but he did finally just reach over 10 points, finished with 11. So if you are part of that, uh, gang of people who bets on LeBron to get 10+ points and just rolls it over every week, good first game for LeBron James in his, uh, 2025 NBA season. Season debut. Uh, Logan Thompson, uh, the goaltender for the Washington Capitals is climbing up the odds to win the Vezna Trophy, which if you don't know, the Vezna Trophy is the award that goes to the top goaltender is Connor Hellebuck, who won it last year. Logan Thompson now 2nd on the odds list behind Connor Hellebuck at 330, and now I would say, is your last chance to get on Logan Thompson to win the Vezna Trophy. I wish I'd bet it earlier, I should have. He was actually my Vezna Trophy pick halfway through last season. Uh, plus 330 odds though, still maybe a little bit of value. He has been unbelievable for Washington so far this season. He leads all NHL goaltenders in save percentage, uh, with the same percentage at 925%. He leads them in goals against average at 185. And I'm a little bit surprised Connor Hellbuck's still the favorite. Yes, of course, he's won it what, 3 times already. He's a defending Hart Trophy winner as well. Uh, but he hasn't had nearly as good of a season. Uh, he's still solid for the Jets, but not quite the Vezna Trophy, uh, level that we come. To expect from Hellebuck. So in my opinion, Logan Thompson should be the favorite. This is, in my opinion, the final time, uh, your final chance to jump in on Logan Thompson at + 3:30 to win, uh, the Vesna Trophy. Big news in the world of golf, Victor Perez, uh, the pride of France, uh, was about to tee it up at this week's RSM Classic for the PGA Tour. Then it was announced he withdrew from the event, uh, on Monday, and people weren't really sure why he wasn't hurt. Uh, and then we found out he withdrew because he signed with Liv. Uh, yes, I've not talked about Liv Golf at all throughout, uh, this show the past couple of months cause it's been over. Their season ended a couple of months ago. Uh, but Victor Perez is the latest PGA Tour member to leave the PGA Tour and to sign with Liv. Liv Golf does not begin their season until January, uh, of next year, so I don't have any odds for Liv, but, uh, there is actually, uh, a golf event this week. Uh, that a lot of the live golfers, uh, are competing in. It is an Asian tour event. They compete in that, uh, event to try to get world golf rankings points so they can play, uh, in the majors. Uh, Victor Perez is not gonna be teeing it up there. He didn't make the trip, uh, from the PGA Tour event all the way over to Asia to play this week. Uh, but there are some, uh, notable live golfers teeing it up, uh, over on the Asian Tour. Uh, Liv set to begin. Uh, their first event, uh, in mid mid-January. So I will give a pick for that event when we come to, but Victor Perez no longer on the PGA Tour, the latest member to switch over, uh, to live. Uh, and then finally , we do know that, uh, the Grey Cup was decided this past weekend. Congratulations to fans of the Saskatchewan Rough Riders, but FanDuel has already released odds to win the 2026 Grey Cup . And good news. For fans of the Montreal Alouettes, the Alouettes plus 270 favorites to win next year's Grey Cup. They fell a little short this year, but the oddsmakers, uh, have them set as favorites to win next year, of course, still a long offseason ahead. Coaches to be hired, coaches to be fired, players to be traded, players to be signed. Uh, but as of right now, the Alouettes plus 270 favorites to win the 2026 Grey Cup. We're halfway through the week, so it's time to take a look at some midweek movement in the National Football League. This is always a great way to see how some injuries have affected the betting lines for this weekend. Also gives us a sense of where the sharps, where the pros, uh, pros meaning certainly not me, where the pros are betting on this weekend's NFL action. So we're gonna start with the Jets, uh, who, uh, some money's coming in on the New York Jets. Uh, maybe it's a disastrous season. But maybe you guys can cover a spread against the Ravens this weekend, that would be fun. Uh, opened up this week at Ravens -14, favored by 2 full touchdowns and 2 extra points, but it's down to 13.5. Uh, that is a significant, somewhat significant, uh, half point in movement. Uh, 14 is certainly not as key as, uh, 3 or 7 or maybe even 10. Uh, but 14 with it being 2 touchdowns and 2 extra points, it is relative. Relatively, uh, significant. So the fact it's down to 13.5 with no real injury news tells us that, uh, the professional batters out there, the sharp bats think 14 was a touch too many points to lay on a Ravens team who has won 4 straight games since the byeweek. But, uh, Lamar Jackson has not exactly looked good, uh, the past two weeks. Not really running the ball, uh, completion percentage of below 60% the past two weeks. So maybe the Jets can cover that spread. Uh, we've also seen a significant movement on the total between the Patriots and the Bengals. It has moved from 48.5 up to 50, uh, which is a little bit surprising because the Bengals won't be without their top offensive weapon this weekend because Ja'Marr Chase allegedly spat on Jalen Ramsey this past weekend. He claims, still claims he didn't, or claims if he meant to, he would have done it in the face, not on his jersey. Uh, but regardless, the, uh, total in that game has moved up 1.5, up to 50. Uh, as of right now, the highest total in the week. Uh, two offenses, uh, two teams whose offenses are far better than their defenses. Uh, the Bengals' defense has been the worst in the NFL by almost every metric. Last in opponent yards per play, last in opponent EPA per play. So, even with Ja'Marr Chase out, I can see, uh, why this total is, uh, so high. But Joe Flacco's gonna have a little bit of a tougher game, uh, with no Ja'Marr Chase to throw to. Uh, expect a big T. Higgins game. Uh, the Jaguars have moved up from -2.5 to -3. Uh, only a half point, uh, movement against the Arizona Cardinals, but as I've talked about, that is significant. Uh, 3 is the most significant number in NFL betting. It takes a lot, uh, for a line to move from 2.5. Up to that magic number of 3. so the probes, the sharp betters out there seem to continue to have faith in this Jaguars team. I'm not. On the opposite side, don't think the Jaguars are good. I think they're gonna come crashing back down to earth in the second half of the season. I don't think Trevor Lawrence is good. Uh, and the Cardinals have a lot of similar metrics to them. But, hey, uh, the sharp betters are certainly smarter than me, so I'm probably on the wrong side here. But, uh, it is worth noting the line has moved from Jaguars -2.5 up to that magic number of -3. Uh, this one pains me to talk about, but I gotta talk about it anyways. My Atlanta Falcons have moved from 2-point favorites against the New Orleans Saints, as we call them. They're now 1.5 point underdogs. So a shift of 3.5 points. This is coming off the news, uh, that Michael Pennox Jr. likely out for the year. Kirk Cousins will be taken over as the starting quarterback. Uh, I have the jersey. I have the jersey ready to go, Kirky. Uh, yeah, I think I might have cursed his team by wearing that jersey last Friday. Maybe I'll wear it again this Friday as we take on a rival. But, uh, yeah, not only Michael Pettis so, Drake London ruled out for at least this week as well. Uh, so the offense is just decimated. Kirk Cousins, no number 1 receiver, and we don't really have a number 2. Darnell Mooney has not played well this season. It came out that he had broke his collarbone in training camp, so maybe that's why he hasn't been good. So the Falcons are gonna have to try to run the ball at New Orleans against the Saints, uh, and as a result, the Saints are now set as a very slight favorite. So a shift of 3.5 points on the line in that one. And then finally, on Monday Night Football, uh, the Panthers might be one of the more fraudulent teams in the NFL. The 49ers open at 6.5 point favorites. That has been bet up to 49ers minus 7. and as I keep mentioning, that is a key number, that is a key half point of movement. 7 is the, uh, second most important number behind 3. Uh, so with it going from 6.5 to 7, now the 49ers need to win by more than a touchdown and an extra point to cover that spread. Uh, so that is significant, but the 49ers coming off a very impressive win against the Cardinals, Brock Purdy back at quarterback , uh, and we can see just how more effective the offense. Des, uh, with Brock Purdy there as opposed to Mac Jones. So, uh, that is an interesting one on Monday night. We'll see if the line, uh, shifts even more towards the 49ers. But as of right now, those are the most significant odds movements halfway through, uh, this week as we head into week 12 action. Action continues tonight. Last night, UMass, uh, covered a spread. Uh, I hate UMass. I've bet on their games 3 times this season. 0 and 2 lost both the first two bets on UMass by probably a combined 100 points. Decided to bet against them in last night's match and of course, they cover. They're even winning 7-0 at the start. of the game. I hate UMass so much. Already my least favorite college football team. I digress. We got other matches set to take place tonight, starting with the game between Central Michigan and Kent State. Central Michigan is set as a 7.5 point favorite in that one. over-under is set at 49.5. The player to watch in that game. Is Angel Flores, who is the Central Michigan quarterback, uh, because he is one of those, uh, dual-threat quarterbacks. Uh, he throws the ball a little bit. Uh, actually, their main quarterback is Joe Laos, but Angel Flores throws the ball. I mean, he has 27 attempts this season, but he's also their leading rusher. I can't say I've watched any Central Michigan games, so I don't really know what's going on with that. Do they play a Wildcat? It's either wildcat quarterback. He's their leading rusher. 519 yards. He's listed as a quarterback, but also has 27 passing attempts. So I'm guessing they must run a wildcat offense. Uh, so Angel Flora is gonna have an impact on the game tonight, both through the air and on the ground. He is the player to watch in that one with Central Michigan favored by more than a touchdown, Central Michigan Chippewas. Chippewa. What's a Chippewa? Don't know. Uh, it's a mascot from Central Michigan, that's what it is. Uh, the other game is Miami, Ohio, who's a very slight. Uh, 1.5 point favorite actually as of just, uh , shortly, just an hour ago, a couple of hours ago, it's moved up to 2.5 in favor of Miami, Ohio against Buffalo. Expect that one to be a low scoring game, 39.5 is the total in that game. Uh, my player to watch is Nick McMillan, who I'm making him my player to watch because what's going on with the emergence of these McM. Melon athletes. I grew up, uh, not having any athlete I knew of with my last name or similar. These are all Mick instead of Max. Close enough. But what, you got Jalen McMillon in the NFL, Ted McMillon, uh, the guy on the Broncos, Jaquan McMillon, uh, and now we have the, uh, Buffalo, uh, their best receiver is Nick McMillon. The McMillons are taking over. Uh, watch out, here come the Scots. Oh, there we go. Our new bell, we should ring anytime there's a McMillan. Alright, I like that. I didn't even know uh that new bell was there. All right, anytime a McMillan is brought up, we ring the bell. So shout out to Nick McMillan, he is leading Buffalo in receiving yards, 712 yards, 14.5 yards per reception, 3 touchdowns on the season. Joining the club of Athletic McMillons. For tonight's action. Let's take a look at the latest NFL playoff pitcher. We got the team sorted by their current seed if the regular season ended today, but also, uh, we have in there the odds for each team to make the playoffs. So if the regular season did end today, it'd be the Denver Broncos, uh, who, uh , would be the number one seed. And would have the first round by. Uh, the opening round of the AFC side of the playoffs would have the Patriots taking on the Jaguars, the Colts taking on the Chargers, and the Steelers taking on the Bills. I feel like the Steelers and Bills play against each other every wild card round, it feels like. Uh, so, yeah, but the odds a little bit different from that. Broncos, -5000. Congratulations to Patriots fans, -10000 make the playoffs, not only because of the record, but their schedule the rest of the way is really easy as well. Uh, but you still have the Steelers who are still in the 4 seed, but despite that, uh, are still + 160 to make the playoffs. Uh, they need to win some important games coming up. It was big for them to beat the Bengals this past week. And they got a big game against the Bears. Uh, they can't afford to drop too many games because it is the Ravens right behind them, one game back, uh, and still 2 games against the Ravens left to go as well. So that is why the Steelers are listed at 160. Uh, the Bills, despite stumbling a couple of times this season, are still, uh, -3500 to make the AFC playoffs. Maybe they don't win the AFC East, but they should get in there at least, uh, with a wild card spot. And then now this is when things get a little bit more sketchy in terms of which teams are gonna make it. The Chargers are currently sitting in the 6 seed, uh, but they, uh, did not benefit. Their odds took a bit of a hit by losing, uh, to the Jacksonville Jaguars this past week, and the Jaguars blew them out in what was, in my opinion, might have been the most surprising result, uh, of week 11. Not enough people are talking about the Jaguars just steam. The Chargers in that spot. And as a result, the Jaguars' odds have improved. They're now up to -194 to make the AFC playoffs. Then you have the Texans who have actually leapfrogged the Chiefs, the Texans in the number 8 seed right now, uh, but oddsmakers do not believe in them, uh, plus 310. Big game for them on Thursday night. If they can beat the Bills, expect their playoff odds to improve dramatically. Uh, and then you have the Chiefs , who are all the way down to the number 9 seed, maybe not quite ready to push the panic button , uh, but they can ill afford to lose many more games the rest of the season. 5 and 5 through the 1st 10 games this year. Still -194 to make the playoffs, which is actually, actually come down a little bit. I think on Monday, we talked about the Chiefs and their playoff odds, and I think they're -220. Uh, so that tells us some people are betting on the Chiefs to miss the playoffs, but still, And -194, that is still an implied probability of 66%, uh, that they do make it to the NFL postseason. I wouldn't push the panic button yet, but if you lose to the Colts this weekend, which is not an easy game, uh, maybe it's time to push the panic button in Kansas City. And then you have the Ravens down at the 10 seed who are still -320. To make the playoffs, the betting market assumes that they will leapfrog the Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm not so sure though. I wasn't fully, uh, impressed with the Ravens last week or the week before either. Uh, so I don't know. I would not be laying a -320 price tag right now on that Ravens team, but, uh, Baltimore fans can feel comfortable. The betting market still expects them to make it to the NFL postseason. Let's now talk the NFC playoffs, and congratulations to fans of the Philadelphia Eagles. Your team is the first team to get your playoff odds taken off the board. Not available to bet on the Eagles to make the playoffs at FanDuel because they are already that much, uh, of a lock to get in. Uh, now they could, in theory, mathematically still be eliminated. They'd have to basically lose out and have some other things. Uh, go against them. But for all intents and purposes, the Eagles will be in the NFL playoffs. Their odds have been taken off the board. They are currently the number 1 seed in the NFC, and it looks like the only team that could potentially surpass them is the Rams, who's, who are sitting in at the number 2 spot right now at -10000. Uh, but remember, the Eagles do have that tiebreaker over the Rams. They actually were. by the fact that the Rams beat the Seahawks because they have the tiebreaker over the Rams. I don't know what the tiebreaker beat the Seahawks. They don't play against each other, so you'd have to go to a 2nd or 3rd tiebreaker, uh, because the Eagles though beat the Rams earlier in the season, remember on that blocked field goal in the last play of the game, they would have the tiebreaker if they finished with the same record as the Rams, but the Rams will still make the playoffs minus 10,000. Bears. Oh. Winning the NFC North at 7 to 3, now -142 to make the NFC playoffs crazy. Ahead of the Packers, ahead of the Lions. What a world for the Chicago Bears. Enjoy it, Bears fans. I don't know if it'll last, but, uh, put a pin in that for 2 minutes. Uh, the Buccaneers -1050 to make the NFC playoffs. Uh, they're winning the NFC South, only half-game lead though on the Carolina Panthers. So, uh, they can't. Uh, become complacent because the Panthers are right behind them, both in the standings and kind of behind them on the odds to win the division. Uh, Seahawks -1800, even though lost to the Rams last week, still heavy favorites to make the NFC playoffs. Packers in the 6th seed at -355, 49ers, 7th seed minus 490. So if the playoffs ended today, or if the regular season ended today, the Eagles would have a first-round by. It'd be Rams, 49ers in an NFC West battle, Bears, Packers in an NFC, uh, North battle, and. Buccaneers, Seahawks, uh, in the wild card round. The Detroit Lions have fallen out of a playoff spot for the time being. They're now sitting in one spot out at the 8 seed at -350 though. So, uh, uh, the betting market does expect them to get back into the playoffs, but, uh, they would need the Bears to stumble or something like the likes of the 49ers or Packers to fall out of there. It looks like it's all gonna be the 7 of those 8 teams are gonna get in, uh, but if you want a longer shot, you do still have the Panthers, a + 390. Uh, sitting there, I think they still have 2 games left against the Buccaneers. So, hey, if they keep playing well , if Bryce Young throws for 400 yards every game again, uh, maybe they could get back into a postseason spot. They're a 390, and then the Cowboys still alive, but a very difficult schedule to end the season for the Cowboys, but, uh, still technically alive in the race for the playoffs at 7:30. Uh, my best bet though, is not on any of these teams to make the playoffs. I think you'd go the opposite. Uh, bears to miss the playoffs at plus money, plus 116. I'm a little bit confused and you know, I'm no mathematician, so I don't know how this math works, but I don't know why there's 8 teams that are favored with minus money odds to make the playoffs. Only 7 of them can do it. Uh, so, uh, I think you have to take, uh, the lowest odds. The Bears somehow -142 to make the playoffs despite there being seven other teams who are pretty heavy favorites to do so. Uh, so I'm gonna go with the opposite. I'm gonna take the Bears to miss the playoffs at 116. They have a difficult schedule to end the year, and I just don't trust that this team is any good. Uh, they keep. Beating bad teams, uh, just by a little bit. Blocked field goal against the Raiders, 10-point comeback against the Giants, Hail Mary against the Bengals, the list goes on, uh, and their overall metrics not good. Bottom 10 in DVOA, bottom 10 in net yards per play. I will bet on them at plus money, plus 116, uh, to miss out on the NFL playoffs. The college football playoff rankings were released last night, uh, so we have a fresh top 25 teams in the country as they compete for a spot in the college football playoff. I have them ranked out here, we're gonna go through them, uh, along with their odds to make the playoffs as well. You're gonna see there's a little bit of a difference in some spots between a team's odds and their current ranking as we enter, uh , the final two weeks. Of the regular season. Congratulations to fans of Ohio State, Indiana , Texas A&M, and Georgia. You, uh, your teams are such big locks to make the college football playoff that your odds have been taken off the board. You can't bet on these teams to make the playoffs. They will be in it regardless. Uh, so the first team with odds is Texas Tech, who's in there in the number 5 spot. Still a massive favorite to make the college football playoff -2000. That's the case for both. Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame, yes, they still have odds, but they are such, uh, short odds, uh, that it would take, uh, a monumental effort for them to not be in the college football playoffs. So we can basically , virtually lock them into a college football playoff spot. We got to see where the seeding falls out, uh, if Texas Tech can win the Big 12, uh, Ole Miss won't win the SEC, so they're probably gonna be in that 567. Uh, seeding, and then Notre Dame doesn't have a conference championship game cause they're not in a conference. So they'll be in the college football playoff, but it depends on where other teams fall in the seeding. Where things get a little sketchy is number 7 is Oregon -265. They have a big, big, big game against USC this week. And if they lose that game, and Oregon is a 10.5 point favorite, things could get a little weird, uh, in terms of their chances to make the college football playoff. Actually, they. They would probably be favored to miss the college football playoff if they lose to the USC Trojans, uh, this weekend. Uh, you have Oklahoma who's a -170 favorite to make the playoff after beating Alabama this past weekend. Uh, they have a tough test ahead of them in Missouri. They are fed in that game, uh, but they need to make sure to not drop that one to Missouri. You can, uh, certainly, uh, guarantee that they would fall out of the playoff pitcher if they do lose to Missouri this weekend. So big game for them. Alabama still in the college football playoff despite losing to Oklahoma and still favored to make the college football playoff at -230. They would right now be in the 2 slot or the 10 slot, I should say, instead of a top 4 slot. So pretty fall, pretty big drop off for Alabama after their loss to Oklahoma. Uh, now you see 11 seed and 12 seed BYU and Utah, two Big 12 teams. are north of 2 to 1 to make the college football playoff. That's because if the season did end today, despite 12 teams getting in the playoffs and despite them being ranked inside the top, top 12, they would actually get knocked out because 2 of those seeds belong to the ACC champion, which right now there is no team in the ACC ranked in the top 12, so that would knock out Utah, and also the highest ranked group of 5 team. Uh, would be in the top 12 with an automatic bid, that would not go BYU. So that's why despite technically they're in the top 12, uh, north of 2 to 1 odds to make the college football playoff, BYU likely to be in the Big 12 championship game. They'll have to upset Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game, uh, if they want to make it to the college football playoff, uh, and that's gonna be a tough test cause they were just blown out, uh, by Texas Tech, uh, two weeks ago. Uh, Utah would have to find a getaway in the Big 12 championship game. They would need some things to go their way. They would need BYU to lose. If they do, uh, and if they can upset Texas Tech, then they would get in the college football playoff. Then you have some odds, uh, for some teams who are in the ACC. You got Miami who's in the 13 seed right now. They still have a chance to get in. Uh, they're at 290. Uh, you have Georgia Tech who's the favorite to win the ACC plus 186. You have Virginia plus 240. It's basically gonna be one of those three teams that are gonna win the ACC. You have some long shots in some other conferences. USC would be interesting plus 360. They would have to upset Oregon this weekend, but if they can upset Oregon, there's an argument to be made for the Trojans to make it in the college football playoff or to the Big 10. Uh, Vanderbilt, probably, uh, even though 410, they probably don't really have much of a shot. Texas is not gonna get in at 16 to 1. Michigan's not gonna get in at 7:30. Uh, if you're curious about the favorite to come out of the group of five, right now, the only group of five team ranked is Tulane, so their odds are + 194. Uh, but it is North Texas who is favored to win that conference. So I'm a little bit confused why North Texas isn't higher ranked. They would be favored in an AAC conference championship game against Tulane. Uh, so things are gonna switch up depending on, uh , how that goes. The fact that college football playoff has, uh, uh, rankings, their team has not ranked James Madison in the top 25 this week tells me James Madison, despite, uh, going on a run here to close the season, not gonna get into the college football playoff, uh, cause there's not really much more they can do outside of beating Washington State as a big favorite this weekend. No respect for the Sun Belt Conference coming from, uh, the people who decide the college football playoff rankings. So, uh, as a result, their odds have fallen to 4 to 1, so we're gonna see the winner of the AAC, uh, between North Texas and Tulane . That is likely the, the team that's gonna represent the group of 5 conferences in the college football playoff. My best bet. If you want to bet on anyone to make the college football playoff, I think it's Virginia at 240. Their odds to win the ACC are 230, uh, so you may as well just bet on them to make the college football playoff a + 240 cause there's no way that they make the playoff without winning the ACC. But I think they are the best team still in contention to win that conference. I don't think Georgia Tech is good. Uh, stick around. Maybe I'll have, uh, Georgia Tech losing this weekend as one of my upset picks for this weekend. I think Virginia gets into the ACC conference championship game, and I think they have a legitimate shot of winning that conference. So I like them at 240 to make it to the college football playoff. There is nothing I love more than a good upset pick. Last week for my NFL upset picks, 0 and 2, unfortunately, the Seahawks had a chance, 61 yard game winning field goal, they missed it. Uh, that's a tough ask for a kicker obviously. Uh, I was on the Seahawks to beat the Rams. The Buccaneers looked like they're in it. They're in it for a while going back and forth with the Buffalo Bills, but, uh, ended up, uh, the Bills pulled away. So 0 and 2 of my NFL upset picks last week. Let's see if I can get back on the winning side of things. I'm gonna start with the Pittsburgh Steelers to upset the Chicago Bears at +124. I don't know how many times I can say it. I do not believe in the Chicago Bears. They are the most fraudulent team. Team in the NFL. Uh, despite being 7-3 and leading the NFC North somehow, some way so far this season, their metrics don't add up. 25th in overall DVOA, 25th in opponent success rate, 23rd in net yards per play. They are 7-3 because they, uh, have had the 3rd easiest schedule so far this season. And even with the easy schedule, they're barely beating these teams. They needed to block a field goal to beat the Raiders. They needed to score a Hail Mary, uh, to close out the game to beat the Bengals. They needed a 10-point comeback in 5 minutes to beat the Giants. This is not a good football team. They have been on the right side of a lot of late-game variants, and now they take on a Steelers team that sure, maybe not be, maybe they're not an elite team, but the Steelers are good. Uh, I think that's a good way to define the Steelers. It's good, not great, not bad, uh, a little bit better than average. They're good. Aaron Rodgers might be out for this weekend's game, but that doesn't scare me too much. Uh, Mason Rudolph, Rudolph, I don't think is that far of a downgrade from a 40 year old Aaron Rodgers. He actually looked pretty good in relief when he came in, uh, for Aaron Rodgers this past weekend and led the Steelers to a pretty significant win against the Bengals. So I believe in Mason Rudolph, I believe in the Steelers team. 14th in DVOA, 18th in net yards per play. By a lot of metrics, they are a better team than the Chicago Bears. I don't think they should be underdogs. Uh, so since they are set as underdogs, I'll take them at +124 to pull off the upset. Uh, another bet at the exact same odds a +124 at FanDuel. I also like the, uh, Arizona Cardinals to upset the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are the Bears of the AFC, so I am fading two teams who I think are far worse. Uh, than their record indicates. Uh, but their metrics are actually a little bit better than the Bears, but still only 15th in DVOA, 24th in net yards per play. Trevor Lawrence has been horrific this season. Uh, don't be fooled by the record. He is in the bottom 10 in almost every single quarterback metric this season. Uh, you can't continue to win games when your quarterback is playing that poorly. I think it's gonna come back to haunt them as they hit the road to take on a little bit of an underrated Arizona team. The Cardinals have struggled to win games. Uh, but their metrics are all around average, right next to Jacksonville in a lot of different key areas, including actually ranking better, uh, in net yards per play, 17th in net yards per play compared to the Jaguars at 24th. So with them being on their home field here, uh, I will take the Cardinals to upset the Jaguars at + 124. Those are my two upset picks for NFL week 12. We have the Cardinals, plus 124 against the Jaguars and the Steelers at the same odds, plus 124 to take down the Chicago Bears. Credit to me for giving you Oklahoma to upset Alabama last week. That was, uh, cashed in as an upset winner for college football. So let's try to hit on a couple more upset winners for week 13 of the regular season, starting with a big one. We're gonna take Arkansas, the Razorbacks, plus 275 to take down the Texas Longhorns. I think there's something to be said about this Texas team being a little bit deflated. Uh, they were in the college football playoff pitcher last week, but then got steamrolled by Georgia. Now they have nothing really else to play for, except for a bowl game, a bowl game in which the majority of the starters probably aren't even gonna play for. Uh, so it's a little bit deflating, uh, for a Texas team that was the preseason favorite to win the national championship. Uh, and Arkansas, don't discount this Arkansas team. Their offense has been extremely good this season. They have averaged 6.9 yards per play this year. That is 1.4 more yards per play, uh, than Texas, uh. The Razorbacks defense is gonna have to step up a little bit. They're, they have not been good so far this season, but if you look at some overall numbers, uh, like in net success rate, Arkansas is actually a better overall team, 26th in the country in net success rate. Texas is 78th. So I think the Razorbacks are worth a shot here, plus 275 to upset Texas. And I'm also gonna bet on Pittsburgh at +106 against Georgia Tech. I've talked about this on the show. I do not believe in this Georgia Tech team. I do not think they should be. Favorites to win the ACC . Uh, and if you look at this game stylistically, the advantage goes towards Pitt's Styles make fights, my friends. Georgia Tech is a run-first football team, and now they have to take on one of the best run defenses in the nation. Pitt allows just 2.8 yards per rush. They're sixth in opponent rush EPA. They are third in opponent rush success rate, and the opposite is true when you look at Pitt's offense compared to the Georgia Tech defense. Pitt throws the ball. A ton, they are a pass first team, and Georgia Tech can't defend the pass. 93rd in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.7 yards per throw. 121st in opponent dropback EPA. This is a stylistic nightmare for Georgia Tech. I'll take Pittsburgh, only slight underdog plus 106. So, my two upset picks for college football week 13, Arkansas plus 275 against Texas, Pittsburgh plus 106 against Georgia Tech. We have bet on a lot of different sports over the past couple of months of this show, handball, Australian rules, football, cricket, uh, but one of my favorite things to do now is to go over to FanDuel, click basketball, then click leagues, uh, cause you can bet on basically any professional, uh, basketball league across the world, so, close my eyes, point to the map, uh , and maybe decide to bet on that country's, uh, professional basketball league. There's a lot of them. Uh, today, uh, we are going to, what was the one that we bet, uh, was it yesterday? Korean basketball, that bet won, by the way, uh, pretty, uh, pretty handily. Uh, the, what was it, Seoul Knights I bet on, I think they won by like 15 points. So, uh, easy win for that. Let's see if I can make it two straight wins here. Uh, this time I'm betting Icelandic basketball. How about that? We're going all the way up to Iceland. Who knew they had a professional basketball league? Uh, the league is called. I'd just choose the countries with the hardest pronunciations possible. Yer ball steals the lead, Carla, uh, is how you, uh, maybe say, probably not say, uh, the professional basketball league, but, uh, I think I can at least say the names of the team. I'm gonna bet on Yard Yardvik, -21.5 at -106 against Armand. Uh, Njardvik, uh, is the best shooting team in this league. Uh, you can find stats for these weird basketball leagues as well, which is great. Uh, they have an effective field goal percentage at 61.3%. That is 4.0.3% better than any other team in the Icelandic professional men's basketball league. Uh, and now they get to take on the worst team in the league. This is why the point spread. It is so big. Arman has been horrific. Uh, apologies to you Arman fans out there, but your team stinks . Last in the standings, last in effective field goal percentage is 48.4%, uh, almost 13% worse , uh, than Yardvik in effective field goal percentage. Also last in opponent points per game. Teams are scoring 108.1 points per game against them. Their average scoring differential through the first seven games of the season is -24.85. Uh, so they are losing by an average mark of what's, uh, what, by more points than the point spread is in this game, and now they have to take on the best team in the league, the team that they have not faced so far this season. So this is gonna be just a blowout in my opinion. I could be wrong, I've been wrong plenty of times before, uh, but I, uh, I'm not afraid to lay this many points on Jardvik. Jarvik, -21.5, -106 against Armand, and some Juval Sloy Karla , some Icelandic men's basketball. Back to back winning nights on this show. Now, usually winning nights uh would be a nice little profit, but, um, not a big one last night, $6 we won last night, $6.35 the night before we won $9 and something. So yes, two winning nights, we are technically taking steps in the right direction, we're not losing money, uh, but still quite a bit of work to do if we wanna get back in the profit because we are sitting at for a season-long numbers. Uh, a loss of $121.56. So, uh, yes, I'd like another step in the right direction tonight, but maybe a little bit of a bigger step in the right direction. But, but just to quickly recap last night's picks, uh, we went 2-2, uh, lost on the Blues in overtime against the Maple Leafs. Uh, that was It resulted in nice profit if we could have had that one come through, uh, but the Blues could not win in, uh, overtime. Nice goal by Willie Neylander to seal it. Uh, in overtime, we did win on the Blackhawks against the Flames, uh, and the other NHL, the under between the Rangers and the Golden Knights, which was my best bet of the night. That was a $40 bet. Uh, and then we lost on, uh, Ohio, couldn't, UMass, 0-3 I am betting on UMass games. Why am I betting on this many games, uh, involving the worst team in college football? 0-2 when I bet on them, lost both by probably a combined 100 points. I finally bet against them, and they managed to cover a spread. Of course, that's the way it works. No more banning myself from betting on UMass games the rest of the season. Uh, all right, let's get into my picks for tonight. I have a little bit of everything. I got one bet in the NHL. I have 2 in college football, uh, and then one in college basketball. Uh, big night for action in college football. I, I have a bet for both games. Uh, let's start in the National Hockey League. I've done well betting on the NHL 2 and 1 last night. Uh, so maybe I should have gone heavier in the NHL, but I really only liked one play, and that play is the Washington Capitals at -122 to defeat the Edmonton Oilers. I know the Capitals are in last place right now in the Metropolitan Division, uh, but I think now is a good time to buy in on the Capitals because their overall numbers have been very good. Uh, 5th in expected goal differential, the Oilers are just 22nd. In that category. And as I talked about earlier in the show, Logan Thompson, their goaltender has been fantastic. Now, uh, the issue with betting on NHL on the show is I have to make these picks in the mornings. The goaltender matchups aren't confirmed the majority of time, so I don't know if Logan Thompson is playing tonight. Uh, I'm gonna assume he is, and if he is, huge goaltending advantage, 925 save percentage compared to the Oilers starting goaltender, Stuart, Stuart Skinner. was an 889 save percentage. So, uh, big advantage in advanced metrics, big advantage in goaltending. We just need the Capitals to fix their shooting issues and find a way to, uh, put the putt, put the puck in the back of the net. I'll take the Capitals -122 on their home ice. Switching over to action, I'm gonna go Central Michigan, Kent State under 49.5, and -110. Uh, Central Michigan is a run first team, but Kent State has done a pretty, uh, fair job of stopping the run this season, especially over the last three games. They've allowed just 3.2 yards per carry. They're also 50th in opponent rush EPA. Uh, but overall, both offenses pretty bad , uh, bad enough that I'm surprised the total is set in the high 40s, almost a 50. Central Michigan, 96th in EPA per play, 115th in success rate. Offensively, Kent State is 110th and 128th in those two offensive stats. So, both offenses bad, both defenses, a little bit better than their offenses, so I'll take the under between Central Michigan and Kent State, under 49.5. The other action game, I'll take Buffalo plus 2.5 uh against Miami, Ohio. A lot of very similar stats between these two teams, so I will take the home underdog that's getting 2.5 points. For example, if you look at net adjusted EPA per play, 104th and 109th, uh , Buffalo actually has the advantage when it comes to net success rate, 62nd to 104th. And overall, probably the best unit in this game is the Buffalo defense. They are 20th in defensive success rate. Uh, so enough numbers there for me to take the 2.5 points with Buffalo on their home field tonight against Miami, Ohio. And then we'll wrap things up with my pick for college basketball action. Very fun game tonight between two of the top-ranked teams in the country, UConn against Arizona. I will lay the 5.5 points with the YuConn Huskies minus 5.5, minus 115. They have just been overall the better team to begin. This season, 7th in effective field goal percentage, 20th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Arizona's 74th and 45th in those two stats. And we kind of know the MO of this Arizona team based on the past few seasons, kind of been a trend with this Arizona team no matter who they get on the court for them. They're a little bit undisciplined, very talented, they can typically shoot pretty well, uh, but undisciplined, and they lose to well-coached teams, they lose to teams who play. Uh, a disciplined style of basketball, and that's exactly what Dan Hurley has brought to this UConn team. Uh, so I think coaching alone and discipline is gonna play a big role in this game, but also just the overall numbers for UConn already this season have been significantly better. So I will lay the 5.5 points with UConn. UConn -5.5, -115 against Arizona in some college basketball action. All right, let's take a look in the safe, see uh if I got a $100 bill in there. One of these days, it will be funny if I open this up and I have like $5 to bet with. Uh, but I do have $100. $100 bill update from yesterday. I said I couldn't figure out who this was on the back , uh, the lady with the research thing. It's nobody, it's just a lady. We're just celebrating. Uh, the creation of insulin, which happened in Canada. It's an unnamed woman on the back looking through a microscope. Uh, we're just celebrating insulin, uh, on our money. Uh, we love insulin, shout out insulin. $100. She's maybe the first woman in Canada to take insulin. Wait, um, I, I don't think so, cause she's, well, maybe, I mean, she's looking through a research like a microscope, so I don't think she's taking it, she's looking at it. But maybe. She's unnamed. Uh, I, I looked into it, she's unnamed. Uh, so shout out insulin, uh, I have $100 to bet on. Uh, tonight, uh, so I'm going to bet, uh, the majority of that on the Capitals, because the NHL, I just gotta stick to what I'm good at, and I've been better at the NHL than the other sports, especially when it comes to college football. I'm gonna do, don't wanna do all the way up to 50. No, I don't, I don't. Yeah, I don't. I won't know, I'm gonna stick to what I've been doing. The past two days have been profitable. Again, I've done 40 2020 $20 so I'm gonna do that again. It's worked 22 straight days, I'll do it again. $40 on the Capitals, $20 on Central Michigan, Kent State under, $20 on Buffalo, plus $2.5.20 dollars on UConn minus $5.5 minus $115 against Arizona. Those are my picks for tonight. This has been Play It Safe, presented by FanDuel. Stick around, uh, cause we got exciting news with the parlay peak. We're going to 4 legs, baby. Check this out, my friends, look at what we're doing. Oh, finally, it only took 6 shows , 7 shows, but we did it. We're crossing off at the 3-leg parlay, cashed in last night. The Jets, uh, beat the Blue Jackets, the Spurs beat the Grizzlies, and Western Michigan beat Northern Illinois. So 3-leg parlay just north. at 2 to 1 odds. We're moving on to the four-leg parlay portion of the parlay peak. Now, here's the real challenge. Now that I have 4 legs, um, I'm running out of room to write, uh, with my messy writing, but, uh, let's give it a go. Tonight's 4-leg parlay, I'm gonna start in the NHL. I'm gonna take Carolina. Go write a little bit smaller, Carolina minus 1. 64 against the Minnesota Wild, Carolina are doing their same thing that they've done for the past decade, it feels like, very good in the regular season, very good in advanced metrics, uh, Corsi, Fenwick, expected goals, all those things. They take on a wild team who has not been good so far this season, average at best. Uh, I'm gonna stick in the NHL. I'm gonna go Chris Kreider of the Anaheim Ducks, who are taking on the Boston Bruins. I need 2 + SOG shots on goals. I need him to get at least 2 shots. Bruins have not really been good defensively. Uh, they're in the bottom 5 in shots on goal allowed per game. So hopefully, 2 of those shots from the Ducks tonight on their home ice come from Chris Kreider. Now we're gonna go to the NBA. We're gonna take the New York Knicks. I kind of consider myself a bit of a Knicks fan from my days living in New York. Uh, I'm gonna take the Knicks, we're not gonna bet the spread, we're just gonna go -225 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and then we're gonna wrap up the four-leg parlay with some college basketball. We got OK State. I wanted to say, OK, Blue Jays, but no, that time has passed. -240, Oklahoma State against USF. Oklahoma State has been very good defensively to start the college basketball season. Hopefully, that's enough to carry them to the win. Don't need them to cover, just win. Uh, so that is a four-leg parlay. Those odds come out to +402. Can we win back to back parlays? Is that possible? Can we pull it off? The unthinkable? Carolina Hurricanes, -164, Chris Kreider, 2 shots, Knicks, -225 over the T Wolves, Oklahoma State -240 against South Florida. That's my four-leg parlay of the day at +402. This has been Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Thank you all so much for tuning in, and I will see you all tomorrow.