Making Moves | November 20, 2025

Hello, everyone. Welcome to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. It is Thursday, November 20th, NFL. Week 12 begins tonight, and today is the day I break down my top 10 player props for this week's NFL action. We have that and we have a lot more coming up. Let's go. Let's take a look at the top headlines in sports betting today, starting in the National Football League, uh, Joe Burrow returned to practice this week, full, full participant in Wednesday's practice, which could mean he might return this week for the Cincinnati Bengals. Not, uh, it's not confirmed yet, uh, but there is a chance that he could return. Uh, against the Patriots, uh, and they need him now because, uh, it's, it's do or die for the Bengals. They already have 7 losses on the season, which means they probably have to win out. If they want any chance of making the playoffs, they win out, they get to 1010 and 7. and they do have a tough schedule coming up next 3 games for, next 4 games for the Bengals, Patriots, Ravens, Bills, Ravens. Uh, so they're gonna need Joe Burrow. They're gonna need him back at full health if they want any hope of making a late charge to the NFL playoffs. I will say, despite it not being confirmed that he's gonna come back, we have seen the betting market react to the Joe Burrow news. Uh, the Patriots were 7.5 point favorites in Cincinnati, uh, just yesterday. That line has moved down to -6.5 now in favor of the Patriots. So, uh. It only moved a point , but a significant point to bring the spread from more than a touchdown and an extra point down to below, uh, a, a touchdown in an extra point. So that is significant. Maybe we will see Joe Burrow suit up. It feels like every year it's the same deal for the Bengals. They get off to a slow start, Joe Burrow gets hurt, he comes back, he tries to lead them to a playoff spot, and then they fall just a little bit short. Happened last year, maybe it'll happen again. Uh, this year. We also got some quarterback news in, uh, for another team in the AFC North, the Cleveland Browns have officially announced that Shade Sanders will be their starting quarterback this weekend. Uh, he got in, uh, got put in this past weekend over Dylan Gabriel, uh, a quarter or two into the game, uh, and, uh, there's some controversy with Sanders because he did not look good. He actually looked terrible, but some people online for some reason thought that he looked amazing. They also blamed his poor play on the fact that he didn't get any reps with the first team in practice. Well, now he will get reps with the first team. He is getting reps with the first team, so this will be his first official start in the NFL. It'll be on Sunday against. Raiders. Unfortunately for Browns fans, the Raiders still 3.5 point favorites in that game. Uh, the betting market has no faith, uh, in Shaur Sanders in that one. Let's see if his passing yards prop has been posted. Uh, it has. His passing yards total is set at 158.5. I don't know if I've ever seen a passing yards total that low. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Cam Ward has been the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. Yeah, his passing yards total is like 30 or 40 yards higher than that. So I don't, I honestly don't know if I've ever seen the passing yards total as low as 158.5 before a game starts. So, hey, maybe Shader Sanders can , uh, surprise some people and put on a good performance and lead the Browns to an upset win. Uh, we will find out on Sunday. The race for the NBA MVP has already turned into a three-man race. We are what, a month into the season. Uh, it's already looking like it's gonna, uh, be between Shay Gilgs Alexander, who is the favorite at +135, the pride of Hamilton . Ontario, Canada, uh, favored to win his second straight NBA MVP. Nikola Jokic, of course, is up there, plus 175, and then Luka Doncic, uh, who's still looking for his first career NBA MVP, he's coming in at 4 to 1. Then there is a wide gap before, uh, Giannis Etetaquampo, who's in at 15 to 1. Uh, so it looks. It's like it's a three-man race between SGA Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. Uh, remember when, uh, Victor Wimbanana was all the way up to, uh, like 3 to 1 to win that award? Of course, he is hurt now, uh, but hopefully you didn't bet on him after that one game to start the season cause his odds have dropped to, uh, 100 to 1 to win NBA MVP. Uh, big game last night in college basketball. Unfortunately, I was on the wrong side of it, but it was a fun one. Pretty rare that you get a game between two top 5 ranked teams in the regular season, but that's what we got when the UConn Huskies took on the Arizona Wildcats. I was on UConn minus 5.5. Unfortunately, uh, the Wildcats not only covered as underdogs, they won the game outright, winning 71-67. Uh, it was. Fun game and potentially maybe a preview of a future Elite Eight Final Four matchup, uh, here in a few months. Uh, so that was a fun one. Like I said, pretty rare to see a top five matchup in the regular season in college basketball, but congratulations to the Arizona Wildcats who improved to 5-0 on the season and their odds to win the national championship have also jumped up, up to 15 to 1 after that impressive win. Uh, last night. Uh, we have a new favorite, uh, to win the MAC, uh, after this midweek match, match in action that we watched this week, uh, it was Toledo, who was the favorite, uh, to win the conference, but after Western Michigan won two nights ago, they are now the favorites to win the MAC, uh, at 120. Miami, Ohio, after their win last night is now second on the odds list of +185. Toledo still 310. They have to play on. On the weekend, I believe they played Ball State on Saturday. Uh, but they might even get left out of the conference championship game now that Western Michigan and Miami, Ohio have strung together some wins. So, uh, the MC is coming down to the last couple of weeks to figure out who is playing in that conference championship in 2 weeks, uh, that, yeah, less than 2 weeks. Uh, no, yeah, 2 weeks, uh, until conference championship week. It's coming up quick. Uh, it feels like it was just yesterday we were waiting for the college football season to begin. Uh, we were talking about NBA MVP earlier. The NHL MVP race, which is, uh, the Hart Trophy, is turning into a two-man race. It's been flip-flopping back and forth between Nathan McKinnon and Connor McDavid to win, uh, the Hart Trophy. Uh, Nathan, uh, or sorry, Connor McDavid is now drawn even with Nathan McKinnon. They now have the exact same odds at +165 to win the NHL MVP, and now it is a wide gap before the next player on the list who's Jack Eichel. 13 to 1. My preseason bet, uh, Krill Caprizov is now 4th on the odds list at 15 to 1, but it does look like it's gonna be one of the two obvious candidates, either McKinnon or McDavid. Uh, barring injuries, they have been the two, best players in the NHL so far this season. The Oilers need a goalie. It's the same story with the Oilers, McDavid and Dry Sele carrying them. They can't get anyone to stop the puck between the pipes. Same old Oilers. Uh, sticking with hockey. The PWHL season is starting tomorrow. That is the Professional Women's hockey league . Uh, this is, I believe, their 3rd season in the league, so I do want to, uh, mention that, uh, that league starts tomorrow. Uh, it is the uh, the Vancouver Golden Knights, who are, or GoldenEyes, GoldenEyes. Vancouver GoldenEyes are the favorites to win the PWHL. What is a GoldenEye, a bird or something? When I hear GoldenEye, I think of the, the James Bond. Yeah, exactly. I doubt their hockey teams named after a James Bond movie, but, uh. Uh, so GoldenEye must be like a bird or something. GoldenEye is + 340 favorite, then he got the Seattle Torrent plus 380, the Montreal Victoi, plus 550, uh, Minnesota Frost, 6 to 1, Toronto Scepters plus 650, Ottawa Charge plus 750. No, uh, no faith in the Boston Fleet or New York Sirens, who are both, uh, north of 10 to 1 odds to win, uh, the third season of the PWHL. That will begin tomorrow night in a game between the Toronto Scepters and the Minnesota Frost. The Frost favorite in that game at -1:30. So I'll mention PWHL, uh, here and there, uh, throughout the next couple of months. Uh, I'm probably not gonna be betting on it though. Maybe I will once we get some stats I can look at, but, uh, I've never bet on the PWHL yet. Uh, maybe I will a little bit this season. The game of the night, uh, screw the NHL or the NBA or Thursday Night Football, we're all gonna be locked into some Sun Belt action between, uh, Louisiana and Arkansas State. Woo! The Arkansas State Red Wolves. I believe 2.5 point favorites at home tonight. The total in the game is 54.5. Uh, I struggle to kind of find a player to watch in this game. Now, to be fair, Arkansas State does, uh, they are. They are still in the mix to make it to the Sun Belt championship game. They need some help though. They got a win out, uh, in hope that the, uh, Southern Miss, Southern Miss, what? Hawkeyes, Golden Eagles, Southern Miss, Golden Eagles, they have to lose out. But Arkansas State's still in the mix. Uh, I will say the player to watch that I've eventually found, it's gonna be, uh, the Arkansas State running back Devin Spencer. They gotta get this guy the ball more , uh, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Uh, but both their quarterback Jalen Rayor has more carries, even even though he's only averaging 2.9 yards, and a different running back, Kenyon Clay, has 30 more carries. He's only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Stop giving the ball to Kennyon Clay. 3.7 yards per carry, terrible. Get the ball in Devin Spencer's hand , let him spin 5.3 yards per carry on the season, 428 total yards. If they can get him the ball early and often, uh, in this. Game, then maybe Arkansas State can win. I do not have a bet for this game later in the show, uh, but, uh, if I did have to pick a side, I would lay the 2.5 points with Arkansas State. Like I said, as long as they get the ball in Devin Spencer's hands, I think they can do some work tonight. I'll take the Red Wolves to cover in some Sun Belt action here. Week 12 of the NFL season begins tonight, my friends. It is Thursday Night Football. It is an AFC matchup between the Buffalo Bills. The Houston Texans, a big game actually for both teams. The Buffalo Bills trying to get back in the lead for, uh, in the AFC East. They cannot afford to lose tonight if they want any hope of winning that division. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans, uh, still kind of in the playoff picture. I think you can put the Texans in the, in the hunt graphic. Uh, they're currently sitting in the, in the 8th seed, of course, they still have the Chiefs and the Ravens close behind them. Uh, the Texans are in the mix, but they will be without, uh, quarterback CJ Stroud once again. He is still in concussion protocol. So Davis Mills, long neck Mills back in the lineup, uh, for tonight . The Bills are 5.5 point favorites. The total for the game is set at 43. Half. If you want to bet on the touchdown market, note that Josh Allen is the betting favorite to score a touchdown. Pretty rare that you see a quarterback, the favorite to find the end zone . It's kind of Josh Allen in Bills games and Jalen Hurts sometimes in Eagles games, and that's just about it. -125 for Josh Allen to score. Uh, the story of the night, in my opinion, is gonna be whether or not Davis Mills can do anything here. That his over-under for his passing errors is 211.5. He's gotta play better than he did, uh, last week against the Titans, uh, if he wants to win the game and keep the Texans in the hunt, uh, for a playoff , uh, berth. Uh, so Davis Mills, come on, long neck Mills, big game tonight. Uh, then, of course, the Texans defense is gonna play a big role. Uh, the best defense in the NFL so far this season and a lot of metrics. So, uh, at home, uh, in a short week, uh, we'll see if they can shut down Josh Allen, who is, uh, in the mix to win, uh, 2nd straight, uh, MVP. Probably not though, it's probably gonna go to Stafford or May, but it is, uh, Josh Allen who's sitting there as the 3rd option to win MVP. Uh, I have two picks for this game, uh, but if you want them, you gotta stick around till the end of the show. It is Thursday, which means it is time for the weekly edition of the player prop Countdown where I rank my top 10 player props for NFL week 12. Uh, we do value transparency on the show, so I do have to be honest with you, my friends. I, last night I calculated how my player props did last week. Scott, do you know how my player props did last week? Out of 10, yeah, 3 out of 1010 to 9. Which means 1, sorry, 11 win, 9 losses, uh, 1 and 9. so if you calculate both my player prop countdown and my sides and totals from last week, uh, I want a combined, uh, 3 and. 22, uh, in the NFL this past week. So, allow me to be a perfect example for you. This is why we bet within our means, and this is why we gamble responsibly, because it is possible to go 3 and 22 with your NFL picks in a single weekend, uh, but as long as you gamble within your means, yes, it's, it stings, of course, uh, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Uh, so, let that be a lesson. Even you can go 3 and 22 in a single weekend. The good news is, it'd be very hard for me to do worse with a player prop countdown this week. I say that, knock on wood, I'm gonna go 0 and 10. Uh, but I will try to improve on a 1 and 9 record from last week. Let's get into it. Uh, we'll start from 10 down through 6, starting with number 10. Uh, the Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love, over 240.5 passing yards at -114. I believe in Jordan Love. I know he has not looked good the past few weeks, uh, barely beat the Giants, lost to the Panthers, and lost to someone else that I can't remember. It's been bad for the Packers the past few weeks. I still believe in him. If you look at the underlying metrics, he's still top 3, if not top 3, top 5 in almost every single quarterback metric. The advanced numbers still love Jordan Love, so I think now is a great buy low spot on Jordan Love. Uh, he has taken on a Vikings defense that ranks 21st in opponent yards per pass attempt. They give up 7.1 yards per throw. Uh, so I'll take Jordan Love. Uh, and also, uh, the Vikings' defense is a little bit overrated. They get pressure for sure, but the Packers' offensive line is good enough they can protect Jordan Love, give him a few minutes to throw, a few seconds to throw. Uh, so over 240.5 passing yards of -114 is my number 10 ranked player prop for this week. My number 9 ranked player prop is gonna be a touchdown score. I'm looking at Daniel Jones of the Colts to run it in himself against the Kansas City Chiefs. That is at 350. Uh, the Chiefs have allowed the most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season. 5 total, uh, quarterback rushing touchdowns have been scored against the Chiefs this season. That should be music to the ears of Daniel Jones, who has already rushed in 5 touchdowns with his legs, uh, this season. Uh, Jonathan Taylor does a lot of work. He has scored plenty of touchdowns himself, but Daniel Jones not afraid to take off and score himself, uh, when the ball gets close to the goal. line. Uh, so I think a pretty good, uh, matchup here for Daniel Jones in terms of scoring himself. Pretty good odds, uh, plus 350. So that was my number 9 ranked player prop for this week. Moving on to number 8, I will once again be fading a member of the Atlanta Falcons this time. I'm gonna go Bejon Robinson. Under 82.5 rushing yards at -114. Uh, the only thing the Saints do well is stop the run. They rank in the top 10. And most, uh, rush defense statistics, uh, they also rank in the top 10 in opponent yards per carry, allowing just 4.0 yards per rush. Uh, and what is more important than that, that is with no Michael Penn, he's out for the season. As announced last night, surgery, 9 months, appendix is 04. It's a dark, uh, it's a dark time to be a Falcons fan. We might have to scratch and restart the whole team from scratch. We just did that a few years ago, we might have to do it again. Um, not good. Uh, Drake London is also out this weekend, so Kirk Cousins is gonna be starting, uh, no good receiver, so the Saints can just go ahead and load up the box because now the only weapon the Falcons have is Bejon Robinson . So I think the Saints are gonna. Uh, key in on that, their whole defensive game plan is gonna be to stop Bijon. Uh, so I'll go Bijon under 82.5 rushing yards at -114. Uh, a running back that I'm going to bet on though, I'll take the over on his rushing yards, is Saquan Barkley, who comes in at number 7 on this week's player prop countdown. Over 75.5 rushing yards and -114. Uh, much like Jordan Love, I think this is a great. By low spot on a player, uh, the Eagles get to take on a Cowboys defense, which has been horrific this season. They have not been able to stop the run either. They allow 4.7 yards per carry. I think it's time for the Eagles' offense to wake up a little bit, and it's time for Saquon Barkley to wake up. It's time to buy in on him. Over 75.5 rushing yards at -114. Uh, then I will take the Patriots tight end as my number 6 ranked player prop, Hunter Henry, over 39.5 receiving yards at -111. Uh, he and the Patriots will take on a Bengals team who, uh, allows the 3rd most receptions and the number 1 most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season. 7 different tight ends have already had, uh, 40+ yard performances against. Uh, against this Bengals defense, and Hunter Henry's already averaging 38.4 yards per game. So we only need him to go, uh, 2 more yards, uh, over his season average for this bet to cash. So my number 6 ranked player prop, Hunter Henry over 39.5 receiving yards at -111. Stick around, I'll be back in just a moment to give you my top 5 ranked player props for NFL Week 12. It's time for me to give you my top 5 ranked player props for NFL week 12 action starting in Baltimore for the Baltimore Ravens. I'm gonna take the under on Lamar Jackson's rushing yards, under 34.5 yards of -114. Something's wrong with Lamar Jackson, I think, and no one's really talking about it. Uh, he has not ran the ball, uh, very often since returning from his, his injury a few weeks ago. In fact, he has rushed for a combined 60 yards in his last 3 starts since returning from injury. And last week against the Browns, he only ran the ball 4 times. That's not very Lamar Jackson. I think that injury is still bothering him. He's able to throw the ball, but I don't think, uh, he's been able to run the ball as, uh, as well as he can when he's at his peak. Uh, so the Ravens will be taking on the Jets this weekend and what should be a blowout in favor of the Ravens. Uh, so probably no need for him to even run the ball that often and put himself in harm's way this weekend. So , because of all of that. I'm gonna fade his rushing yards total under 34.5 rushing yards, uh, minus 114. My number 4 ranked player prop for NFL Week 12 is a kicker prop. We all love a kicker prop, right? Chase McLaughlin, over 6.5 kicking points, uh, at -140. I think they pronounce it McLaughlin. Uh, that doesn't sit right, uh, with me as a Scot. It should be McLaughlin. Uh, over 6.5 kicking points at -140, so a little chalky, uh, but maybe a 2 unit play if you feel confident about it. Uh, whenever I bet a kicking prop, this is kind of the formula I use. I wanna bet on a kicker who plays for a team that has a bad red zone offense going up against a good red zone defense, cause if you get down in the red zone and you can't. Score a touchdown, what happens? Well, most of the time you'll kick a field goal. I mean, sometimes you'll go for it on 4th, if it's 4th and short, uh, but, uh, it should be a busy day for the Buccaneers kicker because they're 25th in red zone offense. They score a touchdown on just 51.72% of the red zone trips. Uh, and now they take on a Rams team on Sunday Night Football. Who has the second best red zone defense in the NFL. Team score a touchdown on just 43.75% of red zone trips against them, so bad red zone offense, good red zone defense. Over 6.5 kicking points for Chase McLaughlin. Uh, that just means 2 field goals and an extra point is good enough to bring us home with that bet. So that is my number 4 ranked player prop for this week. I'm going with a sack prop for my number 3 ranked player prop. I'm gonna go, uh, Rashaw Garry of the Green Bay Packers to record a sack at 10. Six at FanDuel. Now I will note, I've looked into this. A half sack does count, uh, for this prop bet to cash. So, uh, it's technically over 0.3 sacks. So a half sack works. That would cash this at plus money. Uh, the Packers will be taking on the Minnesota Vikings, and JJ McCarthy, uh, gets pressured more than any other quarterback in the NFL this season. He has a pressure rate of 28%. A little bit of that is because they don't exactly have an elite offensive line. Another part of that is he hangs on to the ball too long. Uh, cause he's not as good as Vikings fans think or thought he was. He's been terrible, uh, this season, uh, which, it does bring me a little bit of joy. I've been a JJ McCarthy hater. Uh, Rashaw Garry, so he can either bet on Micah Parsons at like -200 to get a sack, or he can bet on Rashaw Gary at +106. Rashaw Garry only has half a sack less than Micah Parsons this year. So why would you lay that price on Micah Parsons? He has 8 sacks, Rashaw Garry has 7.5, so he may as well go with a guy who only has half a sack, uh, half a sack less, uh, at much better odds. Plus 106, Rashaw Garry to record a sack against, uh, the Minnesota Vikings. My number 2 ranked player prop for NFL week 12, Jamir Gibbs of the Detroit Lions, his longest rush to be over 18.5 yards at -114. The Lions will be taking on, uh, the New York Giants. The Lions will be on their home field, which will be big for them. Uh, and this is one of the best rushing attacks against one of the worst, uh, actually I would say the worst rushing defense. The Giants have allowed more 20+ yard rushes this season, more than any other defense. They've given up 12, uh, rushes of 20+ yards. Uh, the Giants are also allowing the most total yards per carry, 5.5 yards per carry. Uh, and now they have to try to defend against an extremely good offensive line of the Lions and Jamir Gibbs, who has a rush of at least 19 yards or more in 4 different games already this season. Uh, so I like that bet quite a bit. Jamir Gibbs over, or his longest rush over 18.5 yards and minus 114 for my number 2 ranked player prop. And then finally, my number one ranked player prop for NFL Week 12. Uh, we gotta wait till Monday Night Football for this one, but it is Christian McCaffrey over. 42.5 receiving yards at -114 against his former team. This will be the first time McCaffrey will be playing against the Panthers since he was traded to the 49ers back in 2022. So a bit of a homecoming, uh, for McCaffrey, not really homecoming because it's in San Francisco, but. What's interesting about McCaffrey, and I don't know if this has been the case for any starting running back in the history of the NFL, he's averaging more receiving yards per game than rushing yards per game. 66.5 receiving yards per game, only 64 and uh 64.3 rushing yards per game. So he's been more effective catching the ball over the backfield, but despite that, Uh, FanDuel has his rushing yards total at 69.5 yards. His receiving yards total 42.5 yards. So it seems like to me the betting market hasn't caught on to the fact that McCaffrey is used much more, uh, out of the backfield as a receiver, uh, than he is a rusher, or at least he's used more effectively . As a receiving back more so, uh, than, uh, a rusher of the football. So, I'm gonna try to take advantage of that. I'll go Christian McCaffrey over 42.5 receiving yards on Monday Night Football against his former team. Uh, so this has been, uh, the NFL week 12 edition of the player prop Countdown. It's become a little bit of a tradition on Thursday Night Football for me to try to hit a long shot bet, uh, to go to a sporting event or an event of some sort. Uh, I did this back with Pat Frymuth, 100 to 1, I got my ticket to the ALCS game seven. I looked around Toronto, not much going on, but I haven't been to a Raptors game yet since I moved to Toronto, uh, earlier this year. So, let's try to go to a Raptors game. They play Friday night against, uh, the Washington Wizards. Uh, so first I need to find out what ticket I wanna get, uh, I want to aim for, and then I gotta figure out the picks to get the ticket. Uh, so there, here's, uh, here's the Raptors. Listen, if I'm going to go to a Raptors game, if I'm gonna win money tonight to go to a Raptors game, I'm not sitting in the nosebleed. So what are, like, what's the most, What, what's this ticket right here, man? How much does that cost? That's, you know what, 2nd row is that $552? No, $5000. 0, does it say $5000? Zoom in a little. 00 yeah, I can zoom in big time there. Oh, that the text stays small, that's not helpful. Yeah, that is 5000, 5,552, I think. Uh, OK, well, that's an option. Um. What else do we have? What's over here? The 404,500 in the first row on that side, maybe that's the ticket I go for here. I mean, I wanna sit close if I'm gonna go to this game. What is this one? This is, it says hot deal. Click on the deal. Clicking on the deal. The text is small. I think that says 258, but that can't be right. Regardless, I think I'm just gonna go for, for this ticket down here, 4500, I think is what we need for tonight. $4500 is gonna be the price I'm gonna try to get into Raptors, uh, Wizards. By the right way, Raptors hot. I don't know if you, have you been paying attention to how good the Raptors are? I think they're 2nd place in the Eastern Conference right now. Uh, so I have some long shot bets for Thursday Night Football between the Bills and the Texans. I'm gonna sprinkle on. Obviously, these are longshot bets, so you don't wanna bet very much. You wanna bet only a portion of what you normally would bet, uh, but I need $4500. Uh, that's actually quite a bit. So I'm gonna need to hit one of these big ones here. Uh, the bets I've laid out, Christian Kirk, Scott, and I need your opinion on, on some of these here. Christian Kirk, first touchdown, 35 to 1. I don't think that's going to work if I need $4000 for that. Oh, no, no, no, like you might need to parlay it then, right? Oh, yeah, you could parlay it, probably parlay to these, uh. So Christian Kirk, so I'll just go through the first touchdown ones. Christian Kirk first touchdown, 35 to 1. Davis Mills first touchdown, he runs it in, obviously he can't parlay first touchdowns. Jalen Noel, first touchdown, 65 to 1. I like your idea. I think we take Christian Kirk first touchdown, and then we parlay that, uh, with like, uh, like, with like Gabe Davis, two touchdowns, 60 to 1. Uh, so I really, I'll say Gabe Davis. I really like that one because Keyon Coleman is a healthy scratch for the 2nd straight game, and Gabe Davis has taken over his spot, who used to play for the Bills, used to be the number 2 receiver for the Bills next to Stefon Diggs a few years ago, and already in his first game last week, I think he had 3 or 4 receptions, so they're using him and revenge, yeah, uh, well, no, he's on the Bills, he's back on the Bills. They re-signed him. He was a free agent. Keyon Coleman was not playing well . They healthy scratched Keyon Coleman, signed Gabe Davis, and in his first game last week, he had like 3 receptions. Yeah, and you kind of need to step up, right? Yeah. OK. And so, and Josh Allen knows Gabe Davis, he's thrown to him plenty of times before. He's had like 3 touchdown games for the Bills in the past. So maybe like a little throwback Gabe Davis 2+ touchdowns parlayed with Christian Kirk first touchdown. That would be enough. I don't know what the odds were, but that's definitely enough, uh, to get a Raptors courtside ticket. Wait, that's enough for 4000? No, it's gotta be a 50 to 1 parlade with a, with a 60 to 1. I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna do it right here really quick 50 bucks on it. No, that, uh, 61 with a 50 to 1, I'll, I'll, I'll find it out here real quick. That's gotta be like 1000 it's gotta be like 1000 to 1. OK, so we're going Christian Kirk, first touchdown. I like Christian Kirk. He's never really lived up to the potential that he had, uh, with the Jaguars, uh, but I like him. Parlayed with Gabe Davis, 2 touchdowns. That is. 700 to 1. Right, so, so $4000. Yeah, so $5 pays out $3500 so I need 6 $6 bet on that would pay out $4300. $7 bet, $50,000. Get some, get some pops, get some popcorn with it. A lot of popcorn and pops. Well there you go. $7 Christian Kirk first touchdown, Gabe Davis 2 + touchdowns. I think that's perfect. Let's look at the other options here though, just to see if there's anything else I wanna bet on. It won't be quite as big, uh, but 150 to 1 is Collins 3+ receptions. I mean, that's not gonna get me a courtside ticket, but that would get me in the building, for sure. It give me a very good ticket. Collins, 3+ receptions, uh, each quarter, 150 to 1. I think I'm gonna not go Nick Chubb 2+ touchdowns cause I'm already on Woody Marks with a few different bets. Uh, so, yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna bet a little bit. I'm gonna bet $10 on Collins' 3+ receptions in each quarter. Uh, and then I'm gonna do that parlay that we just cooked up. Christian Kirk, first touchdown parlayed with Gabe Davis, 2+ touchdowns, that gives us 700 to 1 $7 on that to pay $5,023.69. Uh, those are my, uh, long shot ticket for the ticket. Get me into the Raptors game tomorrow night, get me courtside. With NFL week 12 starting tonight, it's time to take a look at the 12 most notable betting trends for this week's NFL action, starting with the Thursday Night Football game between the Texans and the Bills. Uh, if you like unders, uh, maybe tonight is a time to bet on it, cause the unders 8 and 3 in the Texans' last 11 games shouldn't be. Surprising for a lot of folks because the Texans defense has just been that good this season. In my opinion, the best defense in the NFL. Uh, and their offense for the most part, uh, has been do do. Uh, so bad offense, good defense, typically leads to unders, so it shouldn't come as a surprise, but it is worth noting ahead of tonight's game against the Bills. Uh, and the under is already, or the total is already set in the low 40s, so it makes sense. The under is 8 and 3 in the Texans' last 11 games. Uh, the Steelers, uh, they have not been good on the road. Very good home team lately, uh, but they're just 1-6 against the spread in their last, uh, 7 road games, which is notable this weekend because they're hitting the road, hitting, uh, the road to take on the Chicago Bears. They're set as 2.5 point underdogs. If you watched yesterday's show, you know that, uh, I like the Steelers to win that game outright, so I'm going to ignore that trend. Uh, it's Chicago, it's the Bears. Uh, I think they can get the win there, but they are 1 and 6 against the spread in their last 7 road games. Uh, the Packers. Maybe it's time to buy low on the Packers, cause even though they're winning some games, they're not covering the spread. Uh, they could not cover against the Giants this past weekend. They lost at home to the Panthers outright a few weeks ago. They are now 1 and 7 against the spread in their last 8 games. They have not been a good team for betters. I still have faith in this Packers team. I think they bounce back. I think they get hot in the final stretch of the season. Not only do I think they're gonna win plenty of games, I think they're going to start covering the spread at a high rate. So I'm on the Packers to cover against the Vikings. Uh, but if you wanna follow this trend, uh, 1 in 7 against the spread in the last 8 games, not good. They say good teams win, great teams cover. So if the Packers are 1 in 7 in their last 8, maybe they're not a great team. I still think they are. I think they'll, I think they'll hit their stride before the playoffs. Uh, the Colts and the Chiefs will face each other in a key AFC matchup that'll help determine the playoff pitcher. On Sunday, the Colts have dominated the Chiefs over the past number of years. 14 and 5 against the spread in their last 19 games against the Chiefs. That obviously spans through the Patrick Mahomes era. You probably have to go back to the Peyton Manning era. That's how. Uh, far back you have to go for their last 19 games, so probably doesn't mean a whole lot because coaches have changed, players have changed, but it is kind of fun. It's a fun little tidbit for this game that the Colts have done well. And don't forget that this doesn't mean they're 14 and 5 straight up. Uh, it's possible, I haven't looked at the game, uh, the games, uh, for this streak, but it's possible, uh, they covered the spread as underdogs, but didn't win outright in a few of those games. So, uh, 14 and 5 against the spread for the Colts in their last 19 games against the Chiefs. The Tennessee Titans continue to be the worst spread team that I remember in my life, uh, betting on the NFL. They did cover last week against the Texans, could not win outright, but they're still 5 and 15 against the spread in their last 20 games. Uh, so we'll see if they can have a second straight cover. I don't even remember the last. Last time they covered two straight games. Uh, the, uh, Titans are taking on, uh, the Seahawks this weekend. The Titans are 13.5 point underdogs. Uh, if you're a fan of DVOA, that's gonna be a fun one cause it's the best team in DVOA. The Seahawks taking on the worst, the Titans, uh, in that stat. The Ravens have dominated the Jets lately, 11-2 against the spread in their last 13 games against the Jets . Uh, that has definitely spanned through the Lamar Jackson era. Uh, the Ravens are now at home this weekend against the Jets, 13.5 point favorites in that one, so if they want to extend their streak. Uh, to being at 12-2 in their last 14 games against the Jets. They gotta win that game by at least 14 points. Uh, a few big spreads this week in the NFL, uh, and those are the two ones, the two I just mentioned, Jets, Ravens, and Seahawks, Titans, both 13.5 point spreads ahead of Sunday's action. Uh, the best trend of the week, and this one is courtesy of my friend, uh, Joe Osborne. You can follow him on social media at JT JTFOZ. Uh, the Lions are 13-0 against the spread following a straight-up loss. So after they lose, uh, that is the time to bet on them. The Lions lost to the Eagles last week. Uh, so now is the time to bet on them. 13 straight covers after losing a game outright. This happened just a few weeks ago when they lost to the Vikings. I forget who they played the week after, but they covered the spread. So that trend has now hit 13 times in a row. In my opinion, that is the best trend of this entire week. Uh, the Patriots taking on the Bengals. The Patriots have been the best spread team in the NFL this season, 7-1 against the spread over the last 8 games. I mentioned earlier in the show, that spread has been bet down to 6.5 in favor of the Patriots with Joe Burrow potentially returning to action on Sunday. Uh, the Browns are quickly trying to catch up to the Titans to be the worst spread team in the NFL. 4-12 against the spread in their last 16 games. Now they will be rolling with Shaur Sanders, uh, who will be getting his first start against the Raiders. Uh, the Raiders are 3.5 point favorites. Maybe you want to back the Browns though, cause the best unit on the field will be the Browns' defense. Can they do enough to at least keep this game within a field goal? Uh, we will see. So Browns, 4 and 12 against the spread in their last 16 games. Over is 7 and 1, and the Cardinals' last 8 home games. I don't know if it's that turf. Uh, if you remember that Arizona, they roll the turf out, uh, they let the sun kind of grow it, and they roll it back into the stadium. Very neat. Uh, but maybe that leads to fast play. 7 and 1, the over is for the Cardinals in their last 8 home games. Uh, they are hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, uh, on Sunday afternoon. The Cardinals are 2.5 point home underdogs. The over-under for that game, 47. And a half. The Eagles have been dominant on the road lately, 9 and 2 against the spread in the last 11 road games. They will be on the road against a divisional rival on Sunday. They're 3.5 point favorites against the Cowboys. Remember that line has been back down a point. The Eagles open as 4.5 points, now it's down to 3.5 points, uh, but, uh, if that trend continues, uh, there's a chance they win and cover against the Cowboys in Dallas. And then finally, the 12th betting. The trend for NFL week 12 is the Rams, who have dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Sean McVeigh era. 9-1-1 against the spread in their last, uh, 11 games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They will face the Bucks on Sunday Night Football. The Rams currently 6.5 point home favorites as Matt Stafford continues to try to pad his resume for, uh, his first ever NFL MVP award. Good news, my friends. Another profitable night last night. Bad news, uh, only a small profit. We've basically had the exact same thing happen, uh, for 3 straight days, where I go 2 and 2, my best bet hits, uh, so 2 and 2 does result in a profit, but only a small profit. I think I've made a combined $25 in profit, uh, despite 3 straight winning shows. Uh, so last night, a profit of $10.97. We hit the Capitals against the Oilers, that was my best bet of the night. Uh, that's $40 on that. Uh, Kent State. Uh, against Central Michigan, the under hitting that 49.5. Uh, Buffalo plus 2.5 loss against Miami, Ohio, that wasn't really close. Uh, and then UConn lost outright to Arizona. So the two wins were two comfortable wins, uh, the two losses were kind of the easy losses as well. So, 2 and 2, profit of $10.97 that brings our season total. We're taking steps in the right direction. But we're still down $110.59. Listen, I would take wins for a small profit any day of the week. 10%. Yeah, um, I, I would like it more if I was in the green, uh, like I'm kind of a little bit antsy to get back into the profits, so I wish I could have went 3 and 1 or 4-0, but, uh, maybe that's, uh, what tonight is for. Let's see if I can, uh, go, uh, 4 straight winning nights, so. Let's get into my picks for tonight. NFL starts, we got Thursday Night Football, 2 bets for Thursday Night Football, as I promised earlier in the show. My spread pick, uh, I feel a little nervous about this one, depending on a kind of bad team again. Texans plus 5.5, even money against the Bills. I'm gonna take the home underdogs. They're home underdogs, short week, and I think the Bills might be a little overrated. Uh, it is kind of funny, this matchup is kind of a game between two teams who are mirror images of each other. Uh, especially if you look at DVOA because the Bills' 4th in offensive DVOA, 22nd in defensive DVOA, the Texans, uh, 22nd in offensive DVOA but 3rd in defensive DVOA. So, It is the classic story of a good offense, bad defense against a bad offense, good defense. Uh, so who really knows what's gonna happen. Uh, but for a short week, Thursday Night Football, the home team's getting 5.5 points. The home team has an elite defense. Uh, I will take a shot on the Texans here. And Davis Mills makes me nervous. I'd feel much more comfortable with this bet if it was CJ Stroud. Uh, but the Bills' defense has been bad. Uh, their run defense has been horrific. Um, I'm hoping the Texans can run the ball, keep the ball on the ground, protect the ball, get some points and let their defense, uh, do the rest. So I will take the 5.5 points with the Houston Texans at home, at even money. Uh, I just mentioned that the Bills' defense can't stop the run. Uh, so with that in mind, I will bet on the Texans starting running back to score a touchdown tonight. Woody Marks, anytime touchdown plus 1:30. I'm a little bit surprised that, uh, the Texans starting running back is available at 1:30. Uh, to score here, because that, in my opinion, is the obvious game plan for the Texans. It should be to run the ball as many times as possible. Now, it's a little bit tricky cause you don't really know how they're gonna divvy up the carries. Nick Chubb is there as well. Uh, but Woody Marks has, uh, played over 60% of the offense. Offensive snaps the past two weeks. It seems obvious to me that they're making Woody Marks the primary running back moving forward. Uh, so I think he's going to get the majority of carries tonight, and now he gets to take on a Bills defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per carry. That is the second worst mark in the NFL. So. I just see the Texans starting running back to score. That would be a 130 winner. Uh, I have another plus money bet, but it is in the National Hockey League. Both my other two picks are in the NHL. That has been the sport I've done the best, uh, with my bets, uh, so far this season. So let's keep it rolling in the NHL. I'll bet on the Washington Capitals for the second straight night. This time they are in Montreal. They are +114 underdogs. Uh, if you saw. Yesterday's show when I placed my bet on the Capitals to beat the Oilers, uh, my reason being, I think now is a good time to, uh, buy in on the Capitals. Um, as of yesterday, they're last place in the Metropolitan Division, uh, but their underlying numbers very, very good. 24th in expected goal differential per 60 minutes. Uh, they were, uh, sorry, the Canadians are 24th in expected goal differential per 60 minutes. The Capitals are in the top 10. Uh, my only concern tonight is that the Capitals will be going with their backup goaltender. It was Logan Thompson who played last night, but to be honest, he didn't really play that well. Anyways, uh, the Canadians are regressing. As I mentioned, 24th in expected goal differential. They were kind of riding high on beating the, uh, being the best shooting team in the NHL, but, uh, you can. Only play so many games where you're scoring on 13% of your shots on goal. Eventually, those numbers are gonna come down. They've started to come down, and as a result, the Canadians have begun to struggle. So I think it's a great buy low, sell high spot. I'll, I will continue to buy in on the Capitals, especially as underdogs, plus 114 against the Canadians. And then I'll wrap things up with a pick on the Red Wings, -137 against the New York Islanders. Red Wings quietly being uh an extremely good hockey team so far this season. If you look at expected goal differential, top five teams in the, in the NHL. Some obvious candidates, the Avalanche, the Hurricanes, the Lightning, the Golden Knights are the top 4. Number 5 on that list, the Detroit Red Wings. Very good, very exciting, very young team. Uh, they're at home to the Islanders, the Islanders who I've talked about on the show before, they play backyard hockey. Sure, they create some high dangerous scoring chances, but they also allow the most high dangerous scoring chances per game, which I don't think you can do on the road against a very good Detroit Red Wings offense. Um, so I'm gonna buy in a little bit on the Red Wings as well, -137 , home favorites against the New York Islanders. All right, let's take a look, in the safe to see how much I have to bet on. Tonight? Oh, ho ho, surprise, it's $100. Uh, all right, $100 to bet on. Again tonight, I feel like I just stepped on a grocery bag or something, I don't know what's below my feet. Uh, I'll have to check that out after. All right, $100 to bet on tonight, we got 4 picks. The method I've used all week has been $40 on my best bet, $20 on the other 3 bets. It's worked, it hasn't given me a huge profit, but it's given me a small profit every night, so I think if it's not broke, I think you just kind of keep doing it. So which bet do I wanna put $40 on? Not the Texans. I think I've just put on the biggest favorite of the night, and then the other three are plus money, so then you do $20 for the other three. I think that makes sense. So we'll go, uh, Red Wings minus 137 against the Islanders, $40 on that, and then we got $20 on the Capitals against the Canadians, $20 on Woody Marks to score a touchdown, $20 on the Texans plus $5.5 million against the Bills. Those are my picks for tonight. This has been Play It Safe, presented by FanDuel. Stick around, cause we still got my parlay of the day as I try to continue to climb the parlay peak. My friends, we are so, so close to hitting two straight parlays. 3-leg parlay cashed a couple of days ago, last night, so close to a 4-leg parlay, uh, winning 3 of the 4 legs hit. All we needed was the Hurricanes to beat the Wild. It went to. Overtime, it went to shootout in the wild one. so close. Quite literally as close as you can possibly get. Unfortunately, uh, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, so, uh, I still need to hit a four-leg parlay. We have Thursday Night Football tonight I'm gonna do. Jesus, uh, same game parlay for tonight, uh, foreg, same game parlay for the NFL. I'm gonna start, uh, with the Houston Texans, unfortunately, this whole parlay kind of centers around the Texans. So if the Bills winning the blowout, this is probably not gonna win. Uh, Houston Texans, I mean, they definitely won't win cause this leg won't cover it. I already like 5.5, as you know, uh, but I'm gonna tease them up to +10.5, as long as it is a single digit game, that leg will hit, uh, that, uh, leg comes in at -235. Remember, I can't do anything at shorter than -250 cause it would be too easy. Uh, Woody Marks, uh, you already know I like him to score. I'm also gonna take him. 60+ rushing yards, I think I have 60+. Rushing yards at -152, -152. I really gotta do a better job of writing here. Uh, so, yeah, Bills allow the second most yards per carry, 5.4 yards per carry, I think Woody Marks scores. I also think, as long as they're able to stick to the run, the Texans, I think, uh, I think they'll be able to go over 60 yards. I'm also gonna go with Josh Allen. I need him to also run the ball. I need him over 25 rushing yards or more , 25 rushing. He has taken off the, uh, taken off of the ball with his legs a lot this season. I'm gonna assume that's gonna continue tonight, especially considering how good the Texans secondary is. I envisioned him looking down. Field, not seeing anyone open, having to take off with his legs himself. That's -240. And then we're gonna wrap things up with Nico Collins. This is the, this is the leg I'm really worried about. Davis Mills, I need you to hit Nico Collins, please. He's open. Throwing the ball down the field and see what happens. 60+. Receiving yards, that is -215. So this is kind of centered around the Texans here. We need Woody Marks and Nico Collins to have at least solid games. We need the Texans to keep it, uh, the final score within 10 points, and Josh Allen to take off with his legs, at least a few times. That parlay comes out to + 3, 3,7. That is my Thursday Night Football 4-leg parlay. Uh, let's see if we can take, uh, the next step up the parlay peak. Thank you for tuning in to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Best of luck to all of your bets tonight, and I will see you all tomorrow.