Making Moves | November 6, 2025

Two straight winning nights. We are now up over $189 profit for the season. Welcome to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. It is Thursday, which means it is time to go through my top 10 player props for NFL Week 10, and we're gonna talk college football in a little around the sports betting world. All that and more coming up. All right, it's time to take a look at the top headlines in the sports betting world. We're gonna start with a little rapid-fire portion here. Uh, one note from each of the major leagues that are currently active right now, starting in the NFL. Uh, the big news that broke yesterday is that CJ Stroud will be missing the Texans Week 10 game, uh, with a concussion. He left, uh, last week's game against the Broncos, uh, with that concussion. It was questionable whether or not he'd be able to play this week. Uh, it has been officially announced yesterday he will not suit up for the Texans at home against the Jackson. Jaguars, uh, and we have seen the betting market react. The Texans were 1.5 point home favorites. They are now 1.5 point home underdogs over, uh, at FanDuel. Uh, that tells me that, uh, the betting market kind of expected him not to play or else they probably would have opened up as bigger favorites. Uh, but, uh, now that it was officially announced and that Davis Miills, uh, long neck, Davis Mills, one of the longest necks you'll ever see. Yeah, crazy. Uh, he will now be getting the star for the Texans and the line did shift. Uh, a few points. Texans now 1.5 point home underdogs, uh, to the Jaguars in that AFC South matchup on Sunday. Uh, let's switch over to college basketball. Uh, and I want to bring up something that happened a couple of days ago. I think it was on Monday night, maybe it was the opening night of the season. Boise State of the Mountain West lost to a Division Two team, uh, Hawaii Pacific, not Hawaii, Hawaii Pacific. They lost to them 79, 78, and what I think. Might be the biggest upset of all time. Hawaii Pacific is such a weird school, we couldn't even get an actual picture of this team. Yeah, it's like a, yeah, it does, it looks like a Bigfoot photo. I think it's maybe a screenshot of a highlight from the game, maybe. Uh, Hawaii Pacific, a Division 2 school, and I struggle to say biggest upset ever cause I think it is, but there were no odds out for this game. That's how lopsided these D1 against D2 games are. The betting markets don't even release odds for it, so I don't even know necessarily exactly how big of an upset. Uh, this was, usually these games happen in the first week of the seasons as a little warm-up game for the Division One school. I don't know how you lose to Hawaii Pacific, and it's Boise State too. We're not talking about a random, you know, school from the MIAC conference or like, uh, you know, Fairfield or Niagara. No, this is Boise State, which is supposed to be like an actually good team from a good basketball conference. How many people do you think go to Hawaii Pacific University? What do you think their enrollment is? 1200, um. 5000. 5000 students. Wow, uh, they just defeated Boise State, so crazy. Uh, like I said, I think it's, I think it's the biggest college basketball upset, maybe the biggest college sports upset I've ever seen, but I can't really say that for sure because we don't have betting odds for it. But tough, tough, tough start to the season for Boise State. This is a home game for Boise State. To , it also happened on, uh, their home court. Uh, moving on over to the NBA, I want to mention the Philadelphia 76ers who have gotten off to a hot start to their season. Pretty low expectations for Sixers fans heading into this year. Uh, people thought as long as they made the playoffs, it would be, uh, a good result for them. Uh, but the 76ers now up to 25 to 1 to win the NBA Finals. Uh, but, uh, to win the West up to 850, uh, they're around 15 to 1 to win, uh, the Eastern Conference, sorry, I think earlier, so the West, Eastern Conference, they're around 15 to 1 to start the season. They're now up to 850, 4th on the Oslos pun only the Cavaliers, Knicks, and Magic. So good start to the season for the Philadelphia 76ers . Let's now switch over to college football. Uh, with this week's action in the books, we now have, uh, a new favorite to win, uh, the MAC conference. It is Ohio who I bet on there a couple of nights ago to beat Miami, Ohio. Uh, they are now the favorites to win. Uh, that conference at +185, but it does seem like it is a four-team race between Ohio, Miami, Ohio at 220, Western Michigan at 490, and Toledo, who came through for us last night at 550. I called my shot. I said I was extremely confident in that bet, and, uh, they won by like 40 points, so they easily covered that 14.5 point spread. So Ohio, Miami, Ohio, Western Michigan, and Toledo, it is a four-team race in the. Let's now switch over, uh, to the ice, uh, for some hockey updates here. Connor McDavid, who entered the season as the betting favorite to win the Hart Trophy, was then surpassed by Nathan McKinnon. Uh, but now McDavid is back to being the favorite to win the Hart Trophy, which is given to the NHL MVP , uh, plus 210 odds. After a slow start to the season, he has now quickly made up ground and he is now tied for the lead in the league in points with 21. Uh, tied with Macklin Celebrini, who was the first overall pick, yeah, last year. So, uh, I didn't, didn't realize he was having that good of a season, but, uh, he is tied with McDavid atop the points list, but it is McDavid who is back to being the betting favorite, uh, at 210 to win the Hart Trophy, uh, once again. Uh, and we do actually have some Major League Baseball news. Uh, free agency begins tomorrow, but before we get to free agency. Uh, Shane Bieb, Bieber, the Biebs , he's coming back to Toronto. Ha! Uh, so it seems like all that locker room talk about how much they loved each other and how much they loved playing in Toronto, uh, wasn't just , uh, for show. Uh, at least Shane Bieber meant it cause he would have got a lot more money on the open market. He instead, uh, decided to opt into his player option, which brings him back to Toronto for one more year on a pretty team-friendly deal. Uh, and that actually did move the odds, uh, to win the World Series next year. The Blue Jays opened as 20 to 1. Uh, they're now up to 17 to 1. Uh, they have leapfrogged the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series next year. So that, uh, it, I tweeted this out the other day. It's my first step to recovery and getting over, uh, the, the World Series loss is having Biebs back on the team next year in a team-friendly deal. So, uh, shout out to Blue Jays, shout out to Shane Bieber. They're now up to 17 to 1 to win the 2026 World Series. Uh, this has been a little rapid fire around the sports betting world, uh, the top headlines for today. Now let's talk about some football. It's not just the NFL that we have to watch and bet on tonight. College football action, we got a game in the AAC and a game in the Sun Belt Conference. Uh, let's start with the AAC game. It is UTSA against USF. USF set as a 13.5 point favorite. Over-under for this game, 67.5. If you like points, you're going to like this game tonight. Uh, USF needs to win this game if they want any hope of clinching that 5th auto bid for the college football playoffs. They cannot let this game slip away. Uh, the good news is, like I said, they are 13.5 point favorites, so they should be able to get the job done, of course. Yeah, playing an insurance company, yeah, yeah, uh, yeah, yeah, UTSA, yeah, it does sound like that. Uh, they should be able to get the job done, but anything can happen, especially in college sports. Uh, the player to watch in this game, Byron Brown, who I think I might have brought up previously last time that you. USF played, uh, in the middle of the week. Uh, he is a dual-threat quarterback. Not only has he thrown for over 1900 yards this season, he's also their leading rusher, 596 yards on the ground, 8 touchdowns on the ground, 17 passing touchdowns, only 6 interceptions. If UTSA, that credit union, wants any chance of beating USF and pulling off the upset, they got to find a way to stop Byron Brown both through the air and on the ground. Uh, so he is by far the best player to watch for tonight. And then over in the Sun Belt Conference, we got Georgia Southern against Appalachian. Uh, state, uh, I was talking about upsets earlier with that Boise State game. Whenever I think upsets, I think that Appalachian State game when they beat, uh, Michigan. Uh, was that like 20 years ago that happened in Michigan, uh, that was before Appalachian State was an FBS team there , FCS back in the day, that was a crazy upset cause I think Michigan was ranked like top 5 in the country. I digress. Appalachian State is now an FBS team. They're 5.5 point favorite tonight, uh, tonight against Georgia Southern. Another high total, 6, 1.5. If you like points , you're gonna like tonight's college football action. Uh, the player to watch in this one is the Appalachian State running back Rashad Dubinian. Uh, 138 carries on the season, 756 yards. That is 5.5 yards per carry. Uh, only 4 touchdowns, surprisingly he only has 4 touchdowns, uh, despite averaging 5.5 yards per carry. So Appalachian State will try to get the ball going on the ground tonight if they can, they're gonna be in a good spot, uh, to win and. As slight favorites against Georgia Southern. I do not have a pick for either of these games later on in the show. I think the numbers are set just about right. If I were to bet on tonight's college football action, I probably would lay the 5.5 points with Appalachian State. Uh, but I'm not confident enough, uh, to make it an official pick, uh, for, for myself. But, uh, yeah, those are the two games tonight for a little secondary screen, maybe, maybe. Tertiary screen, but on your primary screen will be the NFL. Thursday Night Football heads out west for an AFC West battle between the Las Vegas Raiders against the Denver Broncos. As you could probably guess, the Broncos are pretty big favorites here. 8.5 point favorites, although the line has moved down a little bit. It was 9, I think even 9.5 early in the, in the week, but down to 8.5 now . Uh, sharp betters for some reason backing, uh, the Raiders at least a little bit, uh, for tonight. The over-under for the game is set at 42.5. Uh, if you're interested in the touchdown market for tonight, JK Dobbins, the starting running back for the Broncos, is set as the favorite to find the end zone at -130. Uh, I wouldn't necessarily. bet on that though , uh, cause RJ Harvey has been getting some carries, uh, in some significant work in that Broncos backfield. So, uh, maybe you could look at RJ Harvey at 220 instead. I think that's probably the better value bet if you're looking at one of the two Broncos running backs. Uh, what I think is the most interesting story of the night is Ashton Genty. Uh, his rushing yards total is 55.5. The Heisman finalist from a year ago has not been able to get the ball moving on the ground so far this season. It hasn't necessarily been his fault. The Raiders offensive line has been atrocious, but. Uh, if you want any chance of hanging with the Broncos, running the ball is kind of the path to do it because the Broncos' secondary. Uh, and pass rusher, arguably the best in the NFL. The run defense is still good, uh, but it is the weakest of, uh, the different facets of their defense. So, uh, whether or not Ashton Genti can get the ball moving on the ground is gonna play a big role in whether or not the Raiders, uh, can stay in this game and potentially cover the spread. So he is my player to watch for tonight. I do have a bet, actually I have two bets, uh, for this game, uh, but you do have to stick around till the end of the show, and then I will break them down. It is Thursday, my friends, which means it is time for the player prop countdown where I rank my top 10 player props for this weekend's NFL action. Pretty solid week last week, 6-3 and 1. I once again placed a bet on a player that ended up being hurt and not playing. That was D'Andre Swift. So, uh, I said 2 weeks ago I was gonna not do that anymore, and then I immediately did it, uh, once again. Uh, my bad. Uh, let's see if I can at least have. 10 player props that will, uh, actually be graded, uh, a win or a loss, that would be nice. Uh, but 6-3 and 1 last week, uh, plus 2.77 units. So if you're bet $10 in each of them, you would have finished, uh, with a profit of $27. Unfortunately, still down for the year with a player prop count down 42, 44, and 4 for minus 4.3 units, down $43 for a $10 better. Uh, but still a full half of the NFL season left to. Back in the green with my player props. So let's get into it. Strap in, folks. It's time for the week 10 edition of the player prop countdown. Starting with my number 10 ranked player prop for this week, Jerry Judy, the Browns wide receiver to go over 37.5 receiving yards. The Browns will be taking on the New York Jets this week. And what's notable at that? Well, the New York Jets' best cornerback, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, Sauce Gardner, is no longer on the New York Jets. He is now. On the Indianapolis Colts, that should open things up for Jerry Judy, their number one receiver. He's now gonna be guarded by, uh, Isaiah Reya Thomas, if I'm pronouncing that correctly, and the fact that I am probably not pronouncing that correctly, uh, tells me that he's not very good. So Jerry Judy should get open early and often in this game. Uh, and, uh, already, I mean, before the Sauce Gardner trade, the Jets were already twenty-seventh in opponent dropback EPA. So their secondary has already not been good this year, and now they've lost their best defensive back. So Jerry Judy, over 37.5 receiving yards. Uh, my number 9 ranked player prop for NFL Week 10, I'm looking at Justin Herbert over 23.5, completions at -115. Uh, he and the Chargers will be taking on the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Uh, and my. Uh, belief in this bet is, uh, based on the fact that the Chargers don't have an offensive line. So with no offensive line, probably don't have any time for long developing plays downfield. They're probably gonna rely on short passes, swing passes out of the backfield, screens, slants, uh, things like that, uh, to move the ball down the field through the passing game. That will lead to maybe not as many. Passing yards for Herbert, uh, but a lot of completions, uh, in my opinion. It also helps that he's taken on a Steelers team that has allowed the most completions per game this season, giving up 27 completions per game, and Herbert is already averaging 24.4 completions per game this season. So I certainly don't think it's any stretch for him to go over 23.5 completions on Sunday night. Number 8, ranked player prop for NFL week 10. I'm going back to the player who, uh, didn't play this past weekend, despite me betting on him, D'Andre Swift. Now I have looked into this, and reports are he is gonna play this weekend. Uh, so hopefully that does hold true. I will take D'Andre Swift over 60.5 rushing yards at -110. Uh, the Giants' defense has been the worst. Run defense in the NFL and it hasn't really even been close. They've allowed the most yards per carry, giving up 5.5 yards per rush. They're also last in opponent rush EPA, last in opponent rush success rate. So the Bears' run game should have a huge performance on Sunday. I'll take D'Andre Swift over 60.5 rushing yards, and hopefully, He plays this week. Uh, my number 7 ranked player pro for NFL Week 10, uh, Devon Achn for the Miami Dolphins, the running back. Uh, I'm gonna go under 30.5 receiving yards, not rushing yards, receiving yards at -112. Uh , the Dolphins take on the Bills on Sunday, and they have allowed the second fewest receiving yards to running backs. This season, uh, they've already taken on the Dolphins once this year, and they, uh, kept E Chan to just 29 receiving yards against them. And A Chan has only gone over 30.5 receiving yards twice all season. Uh, so with all of that in mind, I will take the under 30.5 receiving yards and minus 112 for the Dolphins running back Devog Achn. And my number 6 ranked player prop for NFL Week 10. Uh, I'm gonna fade a guy who's becoming my enemy in the NFL, JJ McCarthy. Um. I don't know if you saw this yesterday. He talked about how, uh, he, he, no, Jay, no, he, he, no, he does not know who I am, uh, maybe someday. Uh, he talked about how when he puts on his jersey, he turns into an alter ego, he, he becomes 6. it's like, God, dude, come on, man, you haven't even thrown for 160 yards in a game yet this season. Would you relax turning into an alter ego when you put on your jersey? God, that bugs me. Uh. 6, cause that's, I think that's the number that that he wears, like instead of JJ McCarthy, he becomes 6. Maybe it's 9, he, oh, it's 9, he becomes not 6, sorry. I was like no, yeah, he becomes 9, yeah, sorry, I had it flipped upside down in my head . He becomes 9 when he puts on his jersey, that's his alter ego. Stop, dude. Uh, hasn't gone over 158 yards in a, in a game yet in his career, uh, so his passing yards total for this game is set at 205.5. So you'd have to, you know, throw for almost 50 more yards than he ever has in his NFL career, and he's taken on a Ravens defense, which has improved dramatically over their past two games. So I'm gonna fade this, this guy, I'm gonna fade 9, with, uh, JJ McCarthy under 205.5 passing errors on Sunday against the Ravens. Uh, those are my player props from 10 to 6. Stick around. I'll be back in just a moment to give you my top 5 player props for NFL week 10. It's time to get into my top five ranked player props for NFL Week 10. Pretty solid week last week, my top 5 picks, I went 4 and 1. Unfortunately, the only one that didn't hit was my top one, Patrick Mahomes rushing yards. He only ran the ball once for like 3 yards. Uh, but let's see if we can go 5-0 with my top 5 picks this week starting with my favorite touchdown bet of the week, it is, uh. Jundale Robinson at 210 of the New York Giants. They are taking on the Chicago Bears this week . Uh, Jundale Robinson, you might not know this, 15th in the NFL in targets, 12th amongst all pass catchers in receptions so far this season. Uh, despite that, he only has 2 touchdowns. So I think it's a little bit of a great by low spot on Robinson finding the. zone here, uh, especially considering he's going up against a Bears defense which has allowed the 2nd most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. Uh, their secondary also has not been great. 22nd in opponent dropback EPA, 29th in opponent dropback success rate. So my number 5 ranked player prop is for Jundale Robinson to find the end zone at 210. My number 4 ranked player pro for this week, I'm looking at the Lions quarterback Jared Goff. His longest completion to be over 35.5 yards at -115. Uh, he and the Lions will be taking on a Washington Commanders defense, which has given up the most passing plays of 20+ yards this season with 34 and the most passing plays of 40+ yards this season with 9. So their secondary has given up some, uh, quite a few chunk plays through the air. And Jared Goff has already recorded the completion of 36 yards or more in 3 starts already this season, so I think he's gonna be able to chew up this commander's secondary. Longest completion over 35.5 yards, uh, minus 115. My number 3 ranked player prop for NFL week 10, I'm going to fade Trevor Lawrence. I've talked about this before on this show. I'm out on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Quarterback. I don't care what the Jaguars' record is this season, he has not been good. And my favorite quarterback stat, which is EPA plus CPOE expected points added plus completion percentage over expected, he is 3rd last in the NFL in that metric. The only quarterbacks who rank worse in that metric are Dylan Gabriel and Cam Ward. That is not a good sign moving forward for this. Jaguars quarterback. Uh, and also, things are only gonna get more difficult for him this weekend because he takes on a Texans secondary that ranks first in opponent dropback EPA, 2nd in opponent dropback success rate, and they've allowed the 4th fewest passing yards per game at 177.5. So I'm gonna fade the Jaguars quarterback. I'll go under 202 passing yards at -115. My number 2 ranked player prop for NFL week 10, uh, I'm also going to fade the Eagles quarterback, Jalen Hurts, but not through the air. I'll take the under on his rushing yards. Under 26.5 rushing yards. He's actually been held to 22 or fewer rushing yards in 4 straight games, and also he takes on now a Packers defense on Monday night that has allowed the fewest rushing yards, second fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks, uh, this season. And I know when you think of, uh, Jalen Hurts and you think of him running the football, you think of the tush push. Yeah, he's probably gonna do the tush push a few times, but don't forget the tush push only gains, you know, 12, maximum 3 yards at a time. So unless he does a ton of tush pushes on Monday night. Uh, he's gonna stay well under this total unless he takes off and runs, uh, during some passing plays, during some scrambles, but I think the Packers will keep him in check. So Jalen Hurts under 26.5 rushing yards, which leads me to my number one ranked player prop for NFL Week 10. Uh, you cannot call me biased with this pick, uh, cause I'm gonna feed my Atlanta Falcons. I will take Jonathan Taylor over 91.5 rushing yards at -114. Teams have struggled to throw the ball against the Falcons. The Falcons' secondary has been one of the best in the NFL this season, but their run defense leaves a lot to be desired. 24th in opponent rush EPA, 29th in opponent rush. Success rate, they've allowed 4.4 yards per carry, uh, and now they have to try to stop arguably the best rushing running back in, uh, the NFL. I say rushing because they're arguably some better core, uh, running backs in the NFL in terms of being dual threat like Bijon, like Jamir Gibbs, but in terms of pure rushers, uh, it might just be Jonathan Taylor, who's the best in the NFL. He's averaging. 5.7 yards per carry, 99.4 rushing yards per game. So all he has to do is hit his season average and this bet will cash by about 7 or 8 yards. So give me Jonathan Taylor over 91.5 rushing yards at minus 114. That is my number one ranked player prop for NFL Week 10. This has been this week's edition of the player prop Countdown. Hello, my friends, class is in session. It's time for a little betting education. Uh, today we are going to talk about, uh, something that is called the. Scott, I should have got you to write this cause my writing is terrible. We have a graphic on the screen. OK, good, um, good that we have a graphic, just in case you can't read it. It's Gambler's Fallacy. Uh, I got a little bit messy once I knew that there was a graphic. Anyways, Gambler's fallacy is something that if you bet are betting on sports or betting in general, uh, this is something that you should be aware of, cause I see all the time people will always bet on a team, or if you're, this is being like roulette a lot if you're ever at a casino, they think, 01 side has to be due, so it's time to bet that side. Gambler's Fallacy is falling for that trap. You need to treat every single event like it's an individual. Individual events separate from everything that has happened, uh, before it. Uh, roulette is a great example. Uh, like, I, I mean, I fall for this trap too if I'm at a casino, and you're just betting on red or black for roulette. You see red has come up, red has come up, red has come up, red has come up, red has come up 6 straight times it has hit red on the roulette table. You're probably thinking, now is the time to bet black cause it's due. There's no way red's gonna hit a 7th time in a row. Uh, not necessarily true, actually, just simply not true. Every single individual event has for roulette. I mean, obviously you have greens, it's not exactly 50%, but every chance of the roulette spin, let's say there's no green spots, it's only red and black, there's a 50% chance of it landing on red or black, just cause it's hit red six times in a row. Do you know what the probability of it hitting red 1/7 time in a row is? 50%. That's all it is. Uh, so you have to keep that in mind when you're betting, uh, in any fashion, and that's true when it comes to. Sports betting. I fell for this trap. I know, I'm an idiot. I fell for this trap last year in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans. If you remember last year, they were terrible. They could not cover a spread. And in the last 5 weeks of the season, I kept on telling myself, listen, the Titans are due. They're gonna cover the spread here eventually. There's no way this team is gonna continue to not cover spreads. Eventually they're gonna regress to the mean. That wasn't true. The Tennessee Titans last season ended up finishing the worst spread record. In NFL history, 2 and 15, they finished against the spread, uh, and because I fell for the Gambler's fallacy thinking the Titans were eventually going to cover the spread, I lost money betting on them last year . So, uh, a little uh, piece of advice for you people. Gambler's Fallacy, treat every single game, every single instance of a bet as an individual event. Do not look to past outcomes to try to predict the current outcome in terms of just thinking a team is due or the. It is true as well. Don't just bet on a team because maybe they've covered the spread in 8 straight games and you think, oh, now they're definitely gonna cover a 9th straight time cause they're just that hot. You have to treat each individual game, each individual bet as its own separate thing, separate from everything that has happened previously. That is the gambler's fallacy. The weekend is quickly coming up, uh, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are here in Toronto playing against the Boston Bruins on Saturday night, uh, and now. Oh, I didn't even know that. Hurricanes on Sunday too. Um, I'm not gonna go to the Hurricanes game. Sunday is, is NFL day for me, uh, especially at this point in the hockey season. I would like to go Saturday night against the Boston Bruins and see them beat, uh, a Boston sports team because I hate the Bruins so much. Uh, so that would bring me along. A lot of joy, but for me to do that, I don't know if you guys know, uh, Maple Leafs tickets aren't cheap. Uh, so let's see if I can place a very small bet, uh, on tonight's Thursday Night Football game to pay for a ticket for me, uh, for this weekend. But first, let's take a look at how much I need to win. There is 600. Uh, 0, yeah, that's 619. Uh, the cheapest one is 193, but if, like, if I'm gonna spend my Saturday night going here, I wanna sit down in the 100s. Can I zoom in a little? Oh, there we go. Uh, so we got 619 there behind the, why is that only 5507? Well, cause you're not behind the players' bench, it's a little bit more to sit behind the player. That's, I've never sat behind the players' bench. Uh, that is row 20 though. It's pretty far. Yeah, I mean, yeah, if you want a good seat though, so yeah, that is a good seat right in the middle, so $619. Uh, maybe that's the way to go, especially, I don't really like sitting on the ends. You can, I mean, it's a great view for half of the game , but Um, yeah, I mean right down the middle, right, yeah, I think it says amazing deal, or you go 522, uh, here off a little bit more to the side these things that say amazing deal. Oh, of course, of course, amazing, 10 out of 10, um, yeah, and that one's further back too, that's row 27. So let's, well, you know what, let's, let's, let's go for this one. Let's go for right in the middle, $619. So I mean I can pay the extra $20. So just $600 for, uh, section 119, row 20. Uh, there we go. So I gotta find a way to win $600 tonight. Now I do need to let you all know, uh, of course, gamble responsibly. Don't place a big bet hoping that you, it just wins. Let's have a little fun with it. A $2 bet, $5 bet, $10 bet on a big long shot, uh, just a fun little sprinkle, uh, to see if you can win something on Thursday Night Football. Um, I did it with Pat Friarm a few weeks back. It's what paid for my ALCS Game seven ticket when Pat Fryarmuth scored two touchdowns at 100 to 1. Uh, so let's see if we can do it, uh, this week. I have, uh, a few here that I like. I've got 8 , so I'm just gonna go through them. We're gonna talk through it a little bit and see which one I like. Adam Trotman, who is the Broncos' 2nd tight end to score the first touchdown at 20 to 1. I have that written down, I don't like that. 20 to 1, I feel like we should be getting better odds than that. Uh, I like this one a lot. This is 27 to 1, so I'd have to bet , what? 20 $15 I can't do the math, a little bit, $18 to get $600. Genti and Dobbins each, uh, to record 10+ rushing yards in each quarter. I mean, 10 isn't much for, for each quarter though, but OK. Uh, no, but you're counting on that, that consistency. Yeah, that's true. The run game being fairly flush all throughout. Yeah, maybe the Raiders have to abandon the run in the second half. Yeah, OK. Uh, Pat Bryant, 2+ touchdowns at 35 to 1. Pat Bryant is the Broncos' third receiver. Uh, I'd like a little bit better odds than that for the third receiver. Uh, Tyler Batty, last touchdown, who is the Broncos' third string running back. The, uh, thinking behind that is if the Broncos are up by a ton, maybe they put in their backups, their third string guys right at the end of the game. He scores a garbage time touchdown, stole 40 to 1. Don't love that. What do you think about Broncos defense, 2+ touchdowns, 50 to 1? Not bad. I mean, it's like. They're gonna attack Geno Smith. Yeah, yeah, some, I mean, special teams counts, or does it , I believe special teams counts. Yes, I don't, I hate that. OK, uh, RJ Harvey, the Broncos rookie running back who's been getting some more touches recently, 3+ touchdowns, 125 to 1 . OK. JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey to combine for 250+ rushing yards. So that is basically the Broncos to get 250 rushing yards. I mean, if they get up big and they just rely on the run, that's 100 to 1. That's not bad. They'd have to torch the Raiders on the ground, but that's, that's within the realm, realm of possibility. Yeah, and then correct final score. Broncos 34, Raiders 6 is my guess for best score. That's 175 to 1. Now that's not gonna happen. Maybe you go 5 on that. OK, 10 on the, on the Dobbins Harvey, yeah, and the defense is, and then the defense 2 plus touchdowns. So, OK, yep, so 10 on defense, 2 + touchdowns. 10 on, actually 5, yeah, yeah, 10 on Dobbins Harvey to combine for 250, 5 on correct final score, Broncos 34-6. If I win one of them, I'll be sitting there in the middle of the section, Maple Leafs, Bruins, uh, on Saturday night. So there you go. Uh, that's, those are my picks. Picket for the ticket. Picket for the ticket, that's what we call it. I was trying to think of it. Uh, picket for the ticket. I'm trying to get a Maple Leafs ticket for Saturday night. Let's go, uh, let's see if we can cash in on one of these big ones for tonight's Thursday Night Football game. With week 10 of the NFL season starting tonight, I figured now would be a good time to look at some of the best and most notable betting trends for this weekend's, uh, NFL action. Now , I do have to say before we get into them, uh, note the gambler's fallacy, which I talked about earlier. Do not bet solely based on these trends. What trends are, in my opinion, are a great starting point for your handicapping process. If a team is very good against the spread against another team over the past number of years, uh, maybe that indicates that one coach has figured out the other coach, and maybe. We need to dive into the numbers a little bit further. So, uh, I know this is counterintuitive to the gambler's fallacy, but I will, uh, just say do not base your bets solely on these trends. These are just simply fun little nuggets to start your handicapping process before you place your bets. They're also trend over time, right? It's not, yeah, yes, yeah, it's a representative of 10 weeks. Yes, definitely, not a one-off thing sequentially. Yep, absolutely. Uh, so let's get into the top trend for Thursday Night Football, actually a pretty interesting one. Uh, the Raiders, 12-3 against the spread or against the Broncos in the last 15 games, uh, in this, uh, AFC West matchup. Now, note that is against the spread, so yes, uh, the Broncos have probably won, uh, a majority of those games, but the Raiders have managed to keep things close for the most part, the last 15 times these two teams have met, whether that. That's, uh, uh, because of a divisional reason or that's because the coaches have kind of known each other. Now the coaches have changed in that time span. But it is interesting to note, Raiders have done a really good job covering the spread against this Broncos team, 12-3 over the last 15 meetings. Uh, moving on to Sunday morning's game between the Colts and the Falcons in Deutschland. Uh, Colts are 15-3 straight up against the Falcons the last 18 times these two teams have met. Uh, it kind of makes sense to me. I mean, these two teams don't play that often, so this trend probably goes back to the Peyton Manning days, early 2000s. I'm sure he torched the Falcons basically every time he saw them. The Falcons didn't exactly have Super Bowl contending teams back then. Uh, so the Colts are favored in that game again on Sunday morning. So, uh, the most likely, uh, outcome is that the Colts improved to 16 and 3 straight up, uh, in the last 19 games against the Falcons. I have very little faith in my Falcons on Sunday morning. Uh, the Vikings and Ravens, all signs in terms of the trends point to this being a pretty high scoring affair. Uh, I got three different trends here, starting with the Vikings. Uh, the, they are the best over team in the NFL this season, 7-1 to the over, uh, so far in the 2025 season. The Ravens are also a very good over team, second, uh, in the NFL in, uh, overrate with, uh, going 6-2 to the over so far this season, and. The last 5 times these two teams have met, the over is 5-0. So over, over, over . Uh, now don't bet solely on the over because of that, but, uh, maybe look into why the over is cashed so much, uh, so, uh, so recently, uh, between these two teams, uh, and when these two teams have played this season. Maybe the Vikings' defense isn't as good as we thought, and maybe the Ravens defense, uh, I think we kind of know at this point, hasn't been as good as we expect them to be this season. Uh, moving on to the NFC West matchup between the Seahawks and the Cardinals. The Seahawks have had the Cardinals' number lately, 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are now 6.5 point favorites against the Cardinals in week 10, but the Cardinals are starting Jacoby Brissett. So maybe this has been more of a Kyler Murray trend. Maybe you want to go the opposite way with Jacoby Brissett playing at quarterback for the Cardinals this weekend. Uh , another over trend of this one is in the AFC. Uh, the Dolphins are hosting the Bills in an AFC East matchup, and the over is 9-1 for the Dolphins' last 10 home games. Something about that Miami weather, perhaps, uh, but we have seen plenty of points, uh, whenever the Dolphins seem to be playing at home. And once again, their defense has been atrocious. Uh, so maybe that trend continues against the Bills on Sunday. And then finally, My last trend for NFL week 10 is the Texans are 12 and 3 straight up. Uh, in their last 15 games against the Jaguars, a little bit surprising because, uh, the Jaguars, I mean, uh, had some solid teams there a handful of years ago. The Texans were good, but then bad, uh, but the Texans have generally had the Jaguars' number. Recently, the Texans are very slight underdogs now in week 10 with, uh, uh, long neck Davis Mills. Long neck. I keep taking ricochet shots in Davis Mills. Uh, is it, yeah. Unfortunately, Courtland Sutton feels like he's, that's true. I'm off Cortland Sutland. I'm now taking Rickhay shots on Davis Mills for his long neck . Uh, but the Texans, if that trend continues, Davis Mills, uh, and you know what, he is a capable backup. Maybe he will lead the Texans, uh, to their 13th win against the Jaguars in the last 16 meetings, uh, between these two teams. That AFC South matchup will take place on Sunday afternoon. Those have been the top betting trends for NFL Week 10. Profitable night last night, that is back to back winning nights on this show. So just to recap, uh, we went 3 and 1 with the picks, Blue Jackets and Flames, the under 6.5 hit. That looked bad to start. There's 2 goals in the first minute and a half of that game. Uh, but they held on just 6 goals, so that caches the under 6.5 between the Flames and Blue Jackets. Did lose betting against my Maple Leafs for the 2nd straight time. Maybe the Leafs. Getting hot. Maybe I need to, uh, lay off betting against, uh, the Leafs. Seem to get over, uh, it, it just seems to be a trend for the Leafs is October, uh, or November. October seems to be bad. They get hot in November. It's been the case for the past few seasons. I should have learned my lesson. Maple Leafs look very good against Utah last night. Austin Matthews is back, baby. He had an unbelievable goal last night. Uh, top shelf. For Austin Matthews, a little clapper from the point, top shelf right where mama hides the cookies. Uh, so that bet lost, but that's OK in my books. Uh, we did win Toledo last night, which was my biggest bet of the night. It was a $40 bet. I said that I did love that bet. Uh, they're -14.5, they won by about 40 points, so that's an easy win. A sweat-free win, and then in a little NBA, my first NBA win of the season, Cooper Flagg, uh, to get 8 or more rebounds, he finished with 9, so that cashed in at 150. Only a $10 bet, but still a + 150 winner is pretty nice. So, uh, we walked away with a profit of $43.44 last night. That brings us to a season-long profit of $189.27. The goal for tonight is to get that back up over the $200 mark. Once again, as always on this show, I have 4 bets for tonight. I have 2 in the NFL. I have 1 in the NHL, and after last night's NBA winner, let's try to hit another NBA bet. But let's start off with my bets in the National Football League, Thursday Night Football, Broncos, Raiders. I will lay the points with the Denver Broncos -8.5 at -115. The Raiders' offense has just been abysmal. 30 , 30th in the NFL in offensive DVOA. Only the Titans and Browns offenses have been worse by that metric. And now they have to take, uh, take on it, arguably the best defense in the NFL and they have to hit the road and go to one of the most difficult places to play, which is Mile High Stadium in Denver. Uh, it is worth noting the Broncos, uh, have been significantly better. On their home field. Uh, they are 3rd in the NFL in net yards per play when playing at home at +1.6. Uh, and they are overall their defense, 4th in opponent EPA per play, first in opponent success rate. I just don't see how the Raiders are going to be able to score enough points at Denver against this defense to cover the spread. So I will lay the 8.5 points with the Broncos at -115. Try to continue to fade to the Raiders' offense by taking the under on Geno Smith's passing yards, which is set at 212.5, uh, at -114. As I mentioned, he has to take on a Broncos defense on the road, a Broncos defense that's 4th, an opponent dropback EPA first, an opponent dropback success rate. Third, an opponent. yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.5 yards per throw. I mentioned this earlier in the show. If the, uh, Raiders want any chance of being competitive in this game, in my opinion, they have to lean on their run game, lean on Nash and Genti. I don't think throwing the ball with Geno Smith is the path to victory tonight. So, uh, and also, overall, the Broncos' defense has allowed just 166.8 passing yards per game. So I'll go under 212 passing yards. Uh, for Geno Smith at -114. Moving over to the ice, uh, an NHL game tonight between the Blues and the Sabres, I will go over 6.5, uh plus 104. I'm simply fading the goaltenders in this game. Both of them have been terrible to start the season. Uh, at this point, they might as well call me up, put me in there, coach. I'll strap on the pads for the first time in a decade. Uh, Sabres goalie Oko Peka Lukonen, 3.4, 3.34 goals against average, 877 save percentage this season, and things get even worse for the Blues, who will likely be starting Joel Hofer, Hofer, H O F E R Hofer. Uh, Bennington started against Hofer. Yeah, yeah, the over because of Hofer. Uh, Bennington started for the Blues last night, so I'm guessing they're gonna go with their backup goalie Hofer, and I'm gonna bet the over because he is absolutely terrible. Uh, 6 starts this season, he has a 502 goals against average and 836 save percentage. God, they gotta find a better goalie in that, that's atrocious. Uh, so based solely on the goalies alone, I'm gonna go ahead and bet the over on Hofer over 6.5 goals at plus 104. And then we're gonna try to hit a big NBA player prop tonight again, even bigger. Devin Booker, Booker, Hofer, Booker, uh, Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns taking on, uh, the LA Clippers tonight. Uh, I'll take Devin Booker, 2+ steals, so he's got to get 2 steals a plus 280. Very straightforward handicap here. The Clippers have turned the ball over at the highest rate in the NBA. So far this young season. They have a turnover rate of 17.2%, which means they turn the ball over on 17.2% of their offensive possessions. If Devin Booker can get two steals, that'll cash a 280 prop bet for us tonight. So let's see if, uh, this is a little bit of a heat check for me in the NBA. Devin Booker, 2+ steals a 280. Let's. Take a look in the safe to see how much I have to bet with tonight. I'm gonna assume we got that little bonus money, uh, after, uh, well, yesterday's immaculate grid. Oh, wow, 135 to bet on tonight, uh, which, uh, I am glad I have a little bit more to bet on, but that does make things a little bit more complicated for how I want to actually divvy up, uh, that money. What is my most confident play? My most confident play is the Broncos, I think. Um, I'm gonna go, oh. I'm gonna go cause that'd be, so I'm gonna go 75, I'm gonna go with $75 on the Broncos. Big bet. Uh, yeah, $75 on the Broncos minus 8.5 minus $115. I will go $10 on just Devin Booker 2+ deals. It's a pretty long shot bet of plus $280 so $10 on Devin Booker 2 + steals, I believe that's $85 so that'll leave me with $50 right? Uh, so then I'll go 25, no, I'll go 30, 20, I'll go 20 on Geno Smith under 212 passing errors, and -114, and 30 on the NHL game, Blue Sabres over 6.5 plus 104. Those are my bets for tonight. Uh, this has been Play It Safe presented by FanDuel. Uh, stick around because I do once again have to try to hit my parlay of the day. Come on. Let's wrap up the show as always with my parlay of the day. Woohoo, clean catch too. Alright, hopefully, uh, that's it's one thing. Yeah, yeah, hopefully it's a good side of things to come causes uh as you can tell, the parlay peak, we still have not gotten off the ground. This is supposed to be a fun segment. I thought I'd get stuck at like 4 legs or 5 legs. I'm getting stuck in just a two-leg parlay. I can't hit anything. Uh, last night, 0 and 22 big home favorites against the two worst teams in the NHL and the two worst teams in the NHL won. I could have done a, a, Blackhawks and Sharks parlay, it would have paid out big. Uh, instead, loser, so we're back to trying to get a two-leg parlay. Uh, I'm done trying to get in the NHL. Maybe the NHL is too unpredictable, bad teams win all the time. Uh, so I'm going to move to the NFL for Thursday Night Football, a two-leg, same game parlay for tonight. Once again, if you don't remember, uh, I need to, uh, the odd, the, each leg cannot be shorter than -250 odds. I'm gonna make this a little bit challenging for myself. It's still not supposed to be this hard, uh, but let's try, uh, Bo Nix. Uh, I'm gonna take the Broncos quarterback. Knicks, uh, 200, uh 0, 200 plus pass, oh God, yards. Oh no, I'm out of room. Uh, that's minus 174 at FanDuels that leg. That's the Knicks. The nice thing about no one being able to read this is you've got a little bit of air cover when you're wrong. That's true. -174 . -174 for Bo Nix to reach at least 200, that's terrible. That's embarrassing. 200+ passing yards. Uh, he averages over 200. 50 yards in his career when he's playing at home, I wouldn't take it if he's, if he's on the road, uh, but I think he's gonna have a pretty good game in 200 yards, that's not too much to ask for, especially against this Raiders defense. So Bo Nix to reach at least 200 or more passing errors. I'm also gonna take Ashton Genty of the Raiders. I was supposed to be left-handed, my parents forced me to write with my right hand, and that has caused me to be an extremely messy writer. That's my excuse. 3 plus, receptions. Oh man, a little better. That is -132. I think uh the Raiders are gonna struggle to get the ball moving through the air. I think the solution for that for the Raiders is gonna be to dump the ball off to Ashton Genti, try to get the ball in their best players' hands as much as humanly possible. Screen passes, that's also gonna be a good way for them to avoid the Denver pass rush, which is one of the best in the NFL. Screen pass. to Ashton Genti swing passes, get him involved in the passing game. If he catches the ball 3 times, that leg will hit. Uh, and if both of these hit, the parlay odds are +172. Bo Nix, 200+ passing errors, Ashton Genty, 3+ receptions. That is currently +172 at FanDuel odds. Subject to change, but you will get plus money on that. Please, gambler, I'm praying to Gambler the Gambler God, please get me this two-leg parlay so I can cross this off and we can move on to the three-leg parlay for the parlay peak. That's my parlay of the day. This has been Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Thank you all for tuning in. I will see you all tomorrow.