Making Moves | November 7, 2025

Hello everyone. Welcome to today's episode of Making Moves with Matt presented by FanDuel. It is Friday, November 7th, and yes, do I have a Team Canada jersey with my last name on it? Yes. Do I regret that purchase? Yes, but it's OK. We have a lot to talk about today. We're going to go around the world of sports betting and get you ready for this weekend's college football and NFL action. All that and more coming up. Let's take a look at the top headlines in sports betting today. We're going to go rapid fire around the world of sports betting, a little nugget from each major sport that's going on right now. Starting the world of golf , uh, the, we have two different events going on, uh, starting with the PGA Tour, the Worldwide Technology Championship. If you remember, I gave out a pick on Tuesday. I gave out. Two picks. One of them was Ben Griffin to win this week. The good news is he is 2nd on the odds list, uh, after round one to win, but it is Sammy Valimaki, the, uh, Finnish man who is, uh, the betting favorite right now at 7 to 1, uh, after the first round. Uh, he currently is tied for the lead at 11-under. Uh, Ben Griffin, uh, is. A few strokes back, 4 strokes back, but he is by far the best golfer that is near the top of the leaderboard after the, after round one. Round 2 is underway now. Uh, but there is another golf tournament going on all the way over in Abu Dhabi, that is the DP World Tour event. The 2nd round for that event already in the books. Uh, cause that happened overnight because, uh, time zones, those are a thing. Uh, Aaron Rye and Tommy Fleetwood are sitting as the co-leaders right now through the first two rounds at 14 under. Tommy Fleetwood is the + 125 favorite, uh, to win that event through, uh, the first two rounds. Uh, he entered the event as, uh, second on the A list behind Rory McIlroy. Rory McIlroy did not have a great first opening round, so Fleetwood, the year of Fleetwood continues. Uh, he is the live favorite heading into round 3, which will begin tonight if you live in North America, which I assume you do. Let's move on over to the UFC, some combat. Uh, talk, it is, uh, UFC fight night this weekend. It is, uh, a headlined by a main event in the welterweight division between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown. Bonvim is a -188 favorite in that UFC fight night in Las Vegas on Saturday night. So if you are a UFC fan, if you like betting on combat sports, you have an opportunity to do that on Saturday night. Uh, and then let's do a little recap of last night's college football action. USF, uh, blew past their opponent. They are now the +145 favorite to win the AAC. Uh, and remember, winning that conference is going to be big, uh , because if you win that conference, you are going to be in a good position to clinch up that fifth automatic bid in the college football playoff. The only other The conference that has a team that could be in the mix is James Madison. If they win out and win the Sun Belt, uh, then they could get that fifth automatic bid. But right now, it looks like it is going to be the winner, uh, of the American Athletic Conference, and after last night's win, USF is a +145 favorite. Uh, but it is a three-team race between USF, North Texas right behind them at 250, and Memphis coming in. Uh, at 3 to 1. Uh, there are some games, uh, set to take place tonight, which we're going to talk about here in a few minutes. Uh, but first, let's quickly switch over to college basketball, and yes, uh, less than a week into the season, but we've already seen a shift in the odds to win. Uh, the John Wooden Award, which is, of course, given to the, uh, best, uh, player in college basketball. Uh, it was Braden Smith from Purdue who is the favorite, but he has now dropped to 3rd on the odds list . Uh, we now have two co-favorites. We have Cameron Boozer from Duke, uh, yes, the son of Carlos Boozer. That was his name, right? The NBA player, Carlos Boozer. Uh, that's. Carlos Boozer's son playing for Duke, didn't know that he was playing, uh, for Duke this season, but he is now, after a hot start, the co-favorite at 7 to 1 to win the Wooden Award, uh, co-favorite with Darren Peterson from Kansas. Uh, so right now it is those two guys at 7 to 1, and then Braden Smith, who was the preseason favorite, has fallen back to 750. Uh, and then from BYU 4th in the odds list, AJ Debana, uh, at 10 to 1. Uh, 4th on the Oslo to win the Wooden Award. Let's now quickly switch over to the height, to, to the, to the ice, the National Hockey League. Uh, the Anaheim Ducks, uh, hottest team, uh, in the league to start things off. Nobody saw this coming from the Ducks. Uh, 13 games into the season, they're 93 and 1. Quack, quack, quack, quack. Quack, quack, quack. And now they are -110 to make the NHL playoffs, a team that a lot of people expected, uh, would be one of the worst in the NHL now have coin flip odds to make it to the NHL postseason. Obviously, a lot of hockey left to be played, uh, but they are right now 1st in the Pacific Division, uh, 2nd in the Western Conference, so shout out to. The Anaheim Ducks, and anyone out there who is a Ducks fan, the few, the proud. Uh, so there you go, Anaheim Ducks, 9-3 and 1 to start the season. They're now coin flipped to make the NHL playoffs. And then finally, our last little rapid fire around the world. I have not even mentioned the MLS playoffs. Uh, I get too distracted with football and then the Blue Jays World Series run. Completely forgot the MLS playoffs. We going on, so I do want to mention them. Now I'm not a soccer guy, certainly not an MLS guy. So I do have Nate Horning coming on the show a little bit later to talk to us about the MLS playoffs, but I will let you know that Inter Miami, led by, of course, Lionel Messi, uh, is the betting favorite to win the MLS Cup at 410. Uh, but they, uh, are playing in a pivotal game 3 against Nashville. This weekend, uh, in the, uh, first round, it is, uh, best of three series, and that series is tied 1-1. So if Inter Miami wants to, uh, come through as favorites to win the MLS Cup, they gotta beat Nashville this weekend. Uh, but once again, a little bit more about the, uh, MLS playoffs a little bit later, uh, when I talk to Nate Horning. But there you go, a little rapid fire around the sports betting world. Let's take a look at the follow from last night's Thursday Night Football game. Uh, I regret staying up to watch that game. It absolutely stunk, one of the worst games that we've seen. Uh, and also, I laid the points with the Broncos, uh, knowing that the Broncos' defense was very good and could shut down the Raiders' offense. I forgot how bad the Broncos' offense is as well, and it was a take I've hat all season, and then I just forgot that I had that opinion about this Broncos team and decided to lay 8.5 points on them. That was a mistake, uh, on my end, staying up to watch the game. It was a mistake on my end, but at the end of the day, the Broncos did, uh, win the game, uh, 10 to 7, I believe was the final score. Gross. Uh, and now they are, uh, co-favorites to win the AFC West . They do not feel like a good football team, but they continue to find ways, uh, to win games. They are now co-favorites with the Chiefs atop of the AFC West. Uh, at 1:30, the Chiefs are on a bye week this week, so we got to wait till next week to see the Chiefs play again. Uh, and then the Chargers, third, uh, in on the odds to win the AFC West at 4 to 1, and they will play Sunday Night Football against, uh, the, uh, Pittsburgh Steelers. Uh, the Broncos, uh, uh, despite being co-favorites to win the AFC West. The betting market is not taking them seriously as a Super Bowl contender. They're kinda at the top of the 3rd tier of teams when it comes to the Super Bowl odds. The top of the Super Bowl odds you have. The Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles, the Rams, the Lions. Then there's a bit of a, a bit of a gap , and then you have teams like the Packers, Colts, Seahawks, Ravens, and then there's a bit of a gap, and then you have the Broncos at 22 to 1. The Broncos are kind of in the same tier right now as the Buccaneers, the 49ers, the Patriots, the Chargers. Teams who could certainly win the Super Bowl, but not quite, uh, to the level, uh, of the favorites, and then not quite to the level of that kind of second tier with kind of the Packers, Colts, and Seahawks. So. Uh, good news is the Broncos, uh, it'd be pretty surprising if they blow it and don't make the playoffs, at least. Bad news is I don't know if they can go on a deep playoff run with Bo Nix in that offense, uh, right now. Uh, over to the Raiders, uh, they're not gonna make the playoffs. Uh, their win total has dropped to 4.5 on the season. That's gross, that's ugly. Uh, being a Raiders fan has to be, uh, one of the worst teams to cheer for. Uh, in my entire life, I don't think the Raiders have ever been good. I think I've seen them play in the playoffs once or maybe twice, uh, in my entire life. Not good. Uh, can you bet in the stadium. I don't know, it's a good question. Uh, that would be fun, yes, uh, I mean, it'd be fun to be in Vegas and go to a game. Uh, you'd wanna see them play maybe a little bit of a better team though, but, uh, yeah, I mean, I don't know if you can actually bet in the stadium. You certainly do it on your phone for sure, absolutely. Uh, but their win total drops to 4.5, and Ashton Genti, who was the preseason favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, things just have gone from bad to worse for Ashton Genty. He's now basically fallen off the odds list to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Down to 40 to 1, and at this point in the season, uh, I don't think a 40 to 1 bet is good for Offensive Rookie of the Year. You got Dart, Abuca, Tyler Warren, Ted McMillan, Quinshaw Judkins, Oronde Gadsden , all those guys are above Genty. So, uh, if you bet on Ashton Genty before the season began to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, I think, uh, you can go ahead and tear those tickets up. No NFL tonight, but we do have some college football, uh, a couple of games in the AAC, uh , and a game in the Big 10 as well. So let's take a quick look at these, uh, starting with Houston, who is a 1.5 point favorite against UCF. Uh, the total for that game is 47.5. I still think of UCF as being the 20. 17 national champions, they have that banner raised, uh, undefeated, only undefeated team in the country. Uh, certainly not undefeated, uh, this year, uh, in a pretty, uh, not a ton of consequences coming from that game between two middling teams this year. Uh, we will see some consequences, uh, between Tulane and Memphis though, big game, uh, there in terms of trying to clinch that, uh, that automatic bid in the college football playoff and a spot in the AAC conference championship game. Uh, Tulane, uh, was the preseason favorite, uh, to win that conference, but they've fallen off. They're now 10 to 1 to win that conference. It's Memphis who has kind of overtaken them. Memphis is a 3.5 point favorite in that game tonight with the total set at 54.5. If they win tonight, that'll go a, a big way in clinching a spot in the AAC. A championship game and winning the AAC championship game might be enough to get that 5th automatic bid into the college football playoff. Remember, Memphis is currently the top ranked group of 5 team in the APP in the AP poll. They're sitting at the number 22 spot heading into this week's action. And then finally, probably the game of the night is in the Big 10. It's still very weird to think of the US of USC being in the Big 10, but they're taking on Northwestern. USC is a 14.5 point favorite. The over-under in that game is 51. Uh, and a half. Uh, I will not give out a pick for this game later in the show. I stick to games taking place on Saturday and Sunday for Friday's show, but I will let you know, a little tidbit, I do like the over between Northwestern and USC. Uh, the advanced metrics love this USC offense. First in a lot of categories, uh, just an EPA per play, uh, net success rate. Uh, so they do love the Trojans' offense, they do not love the Trojans' defense, uh, one of the worst, uh, in . Uh, the country in Northwestern's a little bit of a similar situation, not quite as extreme as USC, but their offensive numbers have been better than their defensive numbers this season. So I'm a little a little bit surprised that the total's only in the low 50s tonight. I expect a high scoring affair between these two teams. So if you want to bet on some Friday Night Lights college football action, I like the over 51.5 between Northwestern and USC. As I mentioned earlier, the MLS playoffs are going on, and just in general, I haven't talked, uh, a lot of soccer, so we're gonna reach out to one of our soccer experts here, Nate Horning, analyst from Betting news. We're gonna talk MLS playoffs, maybe some EPL. I'm gonna get some college football picks from him as well. So let's hit the lines, give Nate a call. Hello? Yeah. I like it. Yeah, betting. All right, giving Nate a call here. Hello, this is Nate. Hey Nate, what's going on ? It's Ian. Hey Ian, how you doing, man? Good, man. Thanks for uh hopping on the show once again. I wanted to reach out to you because, uh, I've been so distracted with football and the Blue Jays World Series run. I've just completely forgot about soccer these past few weeks. And I completely forgot about MLS which are in the middle of the playoffs right now. So can you give us maybe just like a little quick, maybe a storyline, like what's going on in the, in the MLS playoffs? And if you have a bet to win uh the MLS Cup. I think Miami's the favorite right now. Yeah, Miami, I believe they're, they're either 1st or 2nd on the odds board depending on, uh, who, uh, where you're looking at, and you know, for good reason. Uh, they are just incredibly stacked with all their personnel, obviously headlined by Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez, so they're clearly the team to beat. Uh, they do have a tough one against Nashville coming up on Saturday to see if they can keep, uh, keep that going, but one of the teams I'm looking at is actually in the Western. Conference, uh, I'm looking at the Vancouver Whitecaps. They finished 2nd in the West. They have a very, very tough matchup coming up against LAFC, who has actually knocked them out of the playoffs the past couple of years. But Vancouver, they were the highest scoring team in the West. They also had the best backline in all of the Western Conference as well. One of 3 teams in the MLS that allowed less than 40 goals this season. They've had. Same goalkeeper all year. He's been a stud. They have very, very minimal injuries, and they just signed Thomas Muller for the back half of the season, the German standout. He's scored 8 goals with 3 assists in just 9 matches for them, so that immediately just boosts their, uh, boosts their offensive attacks. So I like Vancouver. I think you can find him about 4 or 5 to 1 to take home the MLS Cup, but that would be my pick if, uh, if you maybe bet one. All right, I like that a lot. Uh, a little Canadian shout out, and I think that's one of the reasons why I forgotten about MLS is cause Toronto, our local team here, just terrible this season. Uh, didn't even make the playoffs , so, uh, no MLS buzz, uh, in the city right now. We're too focused on the World Series. Uh, do you have a bet for any of the big games, uh, in the MLS this weekend? I know there's a few, uh , uh, kind of tiebreaker best of three games set to take place over the weekend. Yup, absolutely. Going to tomorrow, uh, I'm looking at backing the Seattle Sounders on the money line. You can find them around about +128 is the number I found. They're on the road against Minnesota, but this is the fifth meeting of the year between these two teams. So two teams that are very, very incredibly familiar with each other, and Minnesota's gotten the last laugh most of the time this season. 1 and 1 is the record towards Minnesota, but Seattle has dominated every single matchup. The last matchup, 65% of possessions. They won the corner kick battle 9 to 0. The game before, they had 70% possessions, won the corner kick battle 8 to 3. They've outshot Minnesota in the past 3 meetings as well. They've just been dominating. The Sounders have, they just haven't been able to put the ball in the back of the net. I trust them to do that. They've got veteran presence up top, uh, that have been in the playoffs before. They've been in this situation, so I think that's gonna help them a little bit as well. And then the Loonies, they've, they've really gone downhill since, uh, since loaning out Tani Oluashi, uh, the Canadian striker is on, uh, on loan to Villarreal right now. He was one of their leading goal scorers going into the season, and since he's Not on the team anymore. The, the offense really isn't there. So I like the Seattle Sounders to go into Minnesota and get that upset win. All right, Seattle Sounders for some MLS action. Let's stick with soccer, but switch over to, uh, the EPL. Uh, some interesting games this weekend. Even I see Tottenham, Man United. That's a fun one. any play that you like, uh, over for, uh, some English soccer this weekend? Yeah, taking you to, uh, you know, a couple of, uh, lesser known teams, uh, Nottingham Forest and Leeds. You're gonna be backing the under, under 2.5, paid a little bit of a juice, about 11 128, uh, for that under 2.5, but you've got two bad defenses, but you've got two even worse offenses. Uh, these are two of only 4 teams in the EPL that have scored less than 10 goals this year. That's less than 1 per match now. Leeds has only scored on the road against Wolverhampton, the worst team in the league. They netted 3 goals, but other than that, they've been shut out on the road each time. With Nottingham Forest hosting this game, you have 2 inferior teams that I really think defense is gonna be at the forefront of both their minds. They know they could potentially get a win here, but all you want to do is hold on for a point, uh, against a team that's more your calibers. So I see it being very defensive focused. It wouldn't surprise me if we didn't see a goal at all. Really because both of these offenses are terrible, so Nottingham Forest and Leeds under 2.5 is uh my favorite EPL bet. All right, Nate, thank you so much once again for your soccer plays for this weekend. Uh, best of luck with your bets, my friend. We'll talk again soon. Let's talk some knockco pool, survivor pool, whatever you call it. Uh, if you are still alive in your knockco pool, survivor pool, uh, congratulations because there aren't many people left in those pools. I think around 15% of original entries, typically for most survivor knockout pools are still hanging around. If you've been following my pics that I've given you on this show, you might be eliminated. I did give you falcons two weeks ago, but if you were smart and you woke up. And you saw that Kirk Cousins was playing and Drake London wasn't, you switched, uh, then maybe you are still alive. Uh, last week, the pick that I gave you, uh, did win. Uh, it was an easy one, but it did work out for us . Now, this week, uh, it's gonna get a little bit trickier. Some of you might have, might have used the Broncos on Thursday Night Football if you did, congratulations, you're on to week 11. If you didn't use the Broncos last night, uh, we have some other choices, but. Uh, a little bit of a tough week for Survivor. No double-digit favorites this week. Uh, so as we always do, we're going to look at the top five favorites and then use our method to see which team we should use, starting with, these are the five biggest favorites. We use the odds or advantage. The Bills are -560 against the Dolphins. That's 9.5 points on the spread. Lions -480 against the Washington Commanders, no Jane Daniels in that game, remember. Seahawks, uh, taking on the Cardinals, Colts, taking on the Falcons in Deutschland in Germany, and the Panthers taking on the Los Angeles Chargers. So let's start. Uh, first of all, we want to, uh, not avoid betting on teams who are playing on the road. So what teams are on the road this week? The Bills are on the road, that's, they're in Miami, the Lions are on the road, they're in. Uh, Washington, DC, the Seahawks and Cardinals, uh, the Seahawks are at home in that one. The Colts and Falcons, uh, no, Colts are the home team, but it's in Germany, so that is certainly not Indianapolis. Uh, and then the Panthers, uh, against, uh, the, uh, the Panthers are not taking on the Chargers. Who are the Panthers are taking on the Saints. Uh, did I write? Saints, oops, uh, they're taking on the Saints. Uh, they are home to the Saints, uh, in that one. So you only got two home teams out of the five biggest favorites. Uh, then we want to knock that on divisional matchups. Divisional matchups get weird. We've seen this already this season, multiple times. We almost saw it last night on Thursday Night Football, the Raiders almost upset the Denver Broncos in a divisional game. So, which ones are divisional? Bills, Dolphins, that's AFC East. Lions Commanders, that's OK. Seahawks, Cardinals, that's NFC West. Colts, Falcons. Uh, that's fine, that's not divisional. Panthers, Saints, uh, that is divisional. That is the NFC South. So, if you go by that method, um, no, that should be an X on the check. Uh, if you go by that method, there's no clear answer here, because almost every or all five of them have at least one X on it, so you gotta get a little bit creative. And obviously with us being in week 10 of our knockout pools, you might not have some of these teams. Available. I know I don't have the Bills left. I can't use them. I don't have the Seahawks. I can't use them. I don't have the Colts. I can't use them. That leaves me personally with the Lions or the Panthers. I'm not gonna take the Panthers considering they're taking on the Saints. I think the Saints went outright. Uh, I don't think the Panthers are as good as the record, and that's a divisional game. That means that I am personally going to take the Detroit Lions. Yes, they are on the road, but we, uh, we can't be too picky at this point of the season. They are the 2nd biggest favorites of the week. Uh, they're taking on a team with a bad defense, no Jaden Daniels, and a team that's imploding a little bit. And the Lions are looking uh to bounce back after the loss to the Vikings last week. So if you still have the Lions available , uh, that is the team that I would recommend this week. That is the team I'm going with in my, uh, uh, survivor knockout pool. Last thing I'll say. I would stay away from Colts Falcons too. It's in Germany, it's the other side of the world. I know the Colts are way better than the Falcons, I get it. I know they're the 4th biggest favorite on Sunday, but weird things happen, uh, when you play over in Europe, so I would personally recommend avoiding that. Uh, take one of these 4 other teams. Panthers a little bit risky, I'd probably stick to one of these 3. I'm personally gonna go with the Detroit Lions to see if I can win and advance to week 11 of, uh, my survivor knockout pool. Let's talk NFL pick and pools last week at a winning week 3 and 2. That's not gonna win you a pick and pool, but at least, uh, it's a step in the right direction. Let's see if we can go 4 and 1 or 5-0 this week. That is how you win a pick and pool, whether it's, you know, uh, your office pick and pool, just the pool with your friends, or if you're in a big online pool, uh, you're looking for 3 spread picks for NFL Week 10, and I have them for you right here. Uh, starting with the New York Giants, who, as of right now, + 4.5 against the Chicago Bears. Uh, if you remember, uh, from Wednesday's show, I like the Giants to win that game outright, uh, but, uh, we don't care about money lines and pick and pools. You just want the spread. So I will certainly take the 4.5 points of the New York Giants take on a Bears team who is overrated. Uh, they continuously barely beat bad teams. They barely got past the Cincinnati Bengals last week. They barely got past the, uh, Las Vegas Raiders a little bit earlier in the season. Uh, I think the Giants. Move the ball against the Chicago Bears defense, who ranks in the bottom 5 in almost every pass defensive, uh, pass defense metric. So I'll take the 4.5 points with the New York Giants. I will lay the 4.5 points with the Baltimore Ravens. It is time to get back in on the Ravens. Yes, they had a horrific start to the season, but they have been significantly better since their bye week. Uh, they got a little bit more healthy. Lamar Jackson is back playing for them, uh, and they have now won 2 straight games in. dominating fashion, and they're taking on a Vikings team who is led by JJ McCarthy, who has become my number one enemy in the NFL. Not his fault. Uh, it's not JJ McCarthy's fault. I don't know what the, well, it's kind of his fault. He calls himself 9 when he puts on his jersey. It's very weird, it's very strange. Especially considering he hasn't thrown for more than 158 yards yet in his career, but he's acting like he's already an NFL MVP and so are Vikings fans. It's very, very strange. I've never seen an entire fan. Base that be this delusional, delusional about a very average quarterback. So maybe a little bit of anger is in this pick. Maybe I just want to see the Vikings lose. They go 35. Yeah, yeah, I, yeah, it's true. I make fun of JJ McCarthy while I put my own name and number on a Team Canada hockey jersey. You're right, I know you're gonna be 35 from now on, certain segments, and you know what, in high school, I did actually say I went by 35. I try to get that going as a nickname. Um, so I'm being very hypocritical, but I was in high school, uh, but I didn't order this jersey in high school. I ordered this jersey last year and put my own name and number. So yes, I'm being hypocritical. Still, don't care. I will take the Ravens minus 4.5 against the Vikings. Uh, I will take the points with the New Orleans Saints against the Panthers. I like the Saints once again, same with the Giants. I like them to upset the Carolina Panthers, but I will certainly take the 5.5 points. The Panthers have had one of the easiest schedules to start the season. I do not care that they have a good record. I do not care that they beat the Green Bay Packers last season. They're still a bottom 7th, bottom 8 team in most metrics. I believe they're 23rd in DVOA, right next to the New Orleans Saints. They're also right next to the Saints in net yards per play. So yes, the records can be a little bit deceiving between these two teams. They're actually not. That far away, away from each other, and I kind of like Tyler Shuck. Last week. He took on one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Rams, and he looked OK. Uh, now he has a much, much, much easier matchup, uh, for his second NFL start against the Panthers defense. So I'll take the Saints plus 5.5. Speaking of the Rams, Rams minus 4.5 against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers. In a definition of an average team, despite their winning record, they are 15th in net yards per play, 15th in DVOA, 15th in EPA per play, 22nd in opponent EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Rams are the only team in the NFL who rank in the top 6 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. The advanced metrics are telling me the Rams are the far better team, and the 49ers still. Dealing with a lot of injuries. Mac Jones is starting once again for them this weekend, so I will lay the points with the LA Rams. And then finally, I'll wrap things up with the Steelers taking on the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers can't block anyone. They allow the highest pressure rate in the NFL and now they take on the team that is 3rd in total sacks, a team that is led by TJ Watt. Uh, Justin Herbert is gonna be having nightmares leading into this matchup, thinking of TJ. Watt being all over him in that game, I just don't see how the Chargers can move the ball through the air against the pass rush of the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I'll take the 2.5 points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. So we got Giants plus 4.5, Ravens minus 4.5 Saints plus 5.5 Rams minus 4.5 Steelers plus 2.5. Those are my 5 plays for your pick and pools this week. Let's try to go 4 and +14 and 1, 5-0, and we will advance to week 11. On Friday's show, I like to get some picks from you guys because there are too many games, too many leagues, too many sports going on. Uh , for me to have a pick for everything, so, uh, I take to Twitter every Friday morning and I look for your best bets for this weekend's action. I did that again this morning. If you're not following me on Twitter, please do so at Ian Mac Betts. I have an extra I in my name because my parents wanted to make my life difficult. You're old enough to change it though. Yeah, well, I'm not gonna do that at this point. Come on, I'm changing my name at 32 just to remove an I. Uh, yeah, Lane, I get all the time. You all the followers. Yes, yeah , exactly, yeah, exactly. Uh, all right, so let's get into your guys' best, uh, bets here. We're gonna start with Dan at big hitter Dano. Ted McMillon, speaking of names, uh, Ted McMillen at 2 to 1 to score a touchdown for the Carolina Panthers. That does go against my Saints bet. Um, but I, I feel obligated to bet on someone who has a very similar last name to me. He is a McMillon. He doesn't have the So I do hold that against him, but, uh, yeah, I'll probably tail that play. Uh, I, it is worth noting, I do pick three of your guys' plays to tail for this weekend. So, I'm just gonna say right now, I will tail the Ted McMillann one. I mean, even though I'm on the Saints, the Panthers have to score at some point in this game. It's not like they're gonna get shut out. So when they score, I hope it's gonna be, uh, Tate McMillan, my McMillon McMillan brethren. Uh, next up, we got Steven at Stephen Linnette . Oh, look at this little CFL action. Uh, I wanted to bet on CFL, but I didn't look into it myself. I didn't even mention it on this show. We have CFL semi-finals this weekend on Saturday. Uh, Stephen is betting on the Alouette over the Tie Cats. I believe the Alouettes are 2.5 point favorites in that one. I do have to say though, Steven. Uh, your last name is Lynette, according to your Twitter username, that makes me a little suspicious. That sounds French to me. Are you French, Stephen? Are you betting on the Alouettes because you're from Quebec, because you're from Montreal? Uh, hmm, I don't know, maybe a little bit of a biased pic there, but. Uh, I'll trust you regardless. That'll be the second one that I tail, cause I want to bet on the CFL and I don't have a pick myself. So I'll tail Steven's picks on, uh, pick on the Alouettes, but if they do not cover the spread, uh, I'm gonna blame you for being biased with your pick. Um, I'm gonna assume you're French because your last name is Lynette. Tom Williams games coming in, he always comes in with a good pick for us. He's got Wake Forest plus 6.5 against Virginia. Uh, Tom, I'm already on that pick, so I will not be tailing because I'm already on it. So, handshake emoji, we're both on Wake Forest, but I'm taking them on the money line to upset Virginia, so you can keep your points . Uh, Tom Williams games. Uh, I will take them on the money line against Virginia. Matt M at Indy Mofro, Traveon Henderson of the Patriots over 20.5 receiving yards. He says Tampa last in the league and receiving yards allowed to opposing running backs. I like that handicap, Matt. Um, I'm a little bit concerned about the snap count for Trayvon Henderson, because for some reason, Mike Vrabel does not like to use their top running back. I read something that he has some issues with the playbook. I don't know how necessarily true that is, but I do like that play. I appreciate that you have a handicap in there. Uh, quickly, we'll just go through these other ones cause I think I already have my top three. Commanders over lines, Money line. I'm not gonna do that. They're 8.5 point underdogs. You gotta give me a reason why you're gonna take that big of an underdog. Uh, that comes in from sports. That's his name to sports. Uh, Daniel has a pick for Packers. That's Monday night. Daniel, I'm looking for picks for this weekend. That's a Monday night pick. Joseph has a pick from last night, uh, which is funny, but I can't use that. You should have gave that to me yesterday, Joseph. saving the best for last. The, the worst for last, Mike Kiatowski, Pats plus 2.5. I'm not gonna tail that because maybe, stick around to the end of the show, maybe, uh , that is part of my teaser of the week. Uh, so my 3 picks I'm gonna tail, Ted McMillan touchdown 2 to 1. Alouettes over the Tiger-Cats in the CFL and, uh, Trayvon Henderson over 20.5 receiving yards, the Patriots running back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Thank you all so, so much for giving, uh, me your best bets for this weekend's CFL, college football, and NFL action. Let's venture off the betting path. We're going back to the world of darts, which is my favorite sport to talk about on Fridays. Uh, big event this weekend. Usually I talk about some no-name dart guys, but it is, uh, the Grand Slam, is that what it's called, uh, this weekend? Uh, PDC Grand Slam of, PDC Grand Slam big event, uh, and I'm betting on a match that involves the number 10 ranked darts player in the world, uh, Josh Rock, but I'm Jay Rock, Jay Rock. You know what I'm saying, uh, Trailer Park Boys fans will know, uh, that reference, uh, but I'm not gonna bet on Jay Rock. I'm gonna bet on him to lose actually. I'm gonna bet on, uh, Wessel Nieman. Nishneman, yeah, he's the pride of the Netherlands, uh, red hot this guy is lately. We got to bet on the, uh, on the guy who, uh, cannot lose recently. It seems like 12-1 in his last 13 matches. The betting market, the darts. The market hasn't caught up to how good this guy's been. 12-1. He won the Players Championship 34 earlier this month. He is red hot. We're gonna ride the momentum, especially with him as an underdog against Josh Rock. Josh Rock, uh, is the number 10 ranked darts player in the world , but he's just 2-8 in his last 10 matches. So we have a classic match here between one guy who's red hot and one guy who's on a little bit of a cold streak. Let's ride the red hot guy at plus money, plus. 1:16 uh for uh the Grand Slam of darts Saturday afternoon, this match is. Now, I'm standing up because behind me, you can see a dartboard, dartboard. I'm gonna throw this little, uh, to match my jersey here, this Canadian flag dart, uh, and we have agreed that whatever number I hit, uh, I get, uh, to, I get for bonus money to bet over the weekend, to bet on today's show. Uh, so let's, uh, let's do a toss here. So I think Correct me if I'm wrong, I think I know a little bit about darts. What I would wanna hit is 3220. That'd be 60 to, like 60 is the most you can get, right? Well, yeah, bull bullseye will give you another 100 bucks. How about that? OK, uh, outer bullseye, 50 bucks, triple, and then numbers from there. OK, so one throw for all the marvels. All right, here we go. One throw, Canadian flag. So I do kind of want bullseye here, but let's try. Oh, that's, it's not great. At least I hit the board though. I do get bonus money, $12 for bonus money for today's show. You know what? That could have been worse. I could have hit 1, I could hit $5 I could have missed the board completely, which wouldn't be, uh, the first time. So, uh, there you go, we got a pick for some darts action this weekend, and I have $12 extra dollars, too bad. Uh, stick around, you'll get my picks at the end of the show. Alright, let's get into my picks, uh, for this weekend. Uh, first of all though, uh, losing night last night, unfortunately, I did go 2 and 2, but I did not do a good job of distributing. Uh, the money that I had to bet with, it feels like this is a lesson I have to learn every 3 weeks. It feels like once every 3 weeks I place a big bet, that bet loses. Uh, I learned my lesson for a few weeks and then I forget about it. So last night, uh, my biggest bet, I put $75 on the Broncos to win and cover against the Raiders. If you would have told me they were gonna, uh, hold the Raiders to 7 points, I would have felt pretty, pretty good about my bet, uh, but unfortunately, the Broncos' offense could only score 10. Uh, so they won 10-7, that is not good enough to win, to cover an 8.5 point spread. Uh, I did win on Geno Smith to go under his passing yards total of 212.5. Unfortunately, I only had $20 on that. Uh, I lost my NHL play, which was my second biggest play at $30. That was the Blues Sabres over $6.5. I think the Blues won 3-0, I think, I wasn't even close. Uh, but then I did win. Uh, a plus $280 bet, I think it was. Uh, Devin Booker, 2+ steals against the Clippers. It's a great bet. I don't know why I only put $10 on it. He actually got 3 steals. We could have gotten even more aggressive. That was a + $280 but on a $10 bet, that still paid out, uh, owed a profit of $28 so that did soften the blow a little bit, uh, but overall, 2 and 2 for, I think it was about down $57.59 dollars, something like that. So that brings our season. Uh, profit number 2 $129.81 so we're still up over $100. We continue to just take one step forward, one step back, two steps forward, two steps back. Uh, but that's OK. Uh, we're still in the profit, we're still in the green, and that's the goal of the show. I wanna end the year with a profit, and we've remained in the profit for, uh, quite a long time now, uh, after starting off, uh, September slow. So, let's get in my picks for this weekend. I'm doing the same thing as I usually do. Got one bet for college football, 3 bets in the National Football League. We're gonna start in college football. My best college football bet for week 11 is Oregon, uh , the Ducks, uh, big, uh, duck show, quack, quack, quack, quack. Talked about the Anaheim Ducks earlier. Oregon -6.5 against the Iowa Hawkeyes, uh, in a little Big 10 action. Tough matchup for the Hawkeyes in this game. Uh, their biggest strength is their defense. That is what has led them to their current record, which has been a pretty strong one. Uh, they can overwhelm most offenses that they face, but now they take on an Oregon team that has just as good of a defense, uh, arguably a slightly better defense than Iowa. Uh, Oregon's defense , uh, is 7th in the country in opponent adjusted EPA per play. Iowa is 11th, so according to EPA slightly better defense. Uh, meanwhile, the Oregon offense is far better. Than the Iowa offense. I know the college football playoff rankings don't respect Oregon as much as some other people do. The advanced metrics certainly do. One of the better teams in the country on both sides of the ball in things like EPA per play, 12th, and adjusted EPA per play, Iowa all the way down, uh, at 75th. It also doesn't help that Iowa gets the majority of its yards by running the football, and Oregon has an extremely good run defense. They've allowed just 3.5 yards per carry. So I will lay the points with the quack quack, quack. Oregon Ducks, -6.5, -110 against Iowa for my college football bet for Saturday's action. Moving on to the NFL, a couple of bets that you already recognize, uh, if you've watched, uh, been watching the show this week, starting with my player prop, which, uh, was my number one ranked player prop in my player prop countdown yesterday. It is Jonathan Taylor to go over 91.5 rushing yards at -114. I talked about it yesterday, but just to reiterate, uh, the Falcons' secondary has been very, very good this season, but the run defense has left a lot to be desired. 29th in opponents. Rush success rate, 24th in opponent rush EPA. Uh, they're giving up, uh, almost 5 yards per carry, and now they take on Jonathan Taylor, the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, a guy who's averaging 5.7 yards per carry, 99.4 rushing yards per game. So as long as he hits his season average on Sunday morning in Germany against the Falcons, this bet will be a winner. So Jonathan Taylor, over 91.5 rushing yards at -114. Uh, I do have a total bet. I haven't talked about totals at all so far this week, but I do like the under 48.5 and -104 between the Lions and the Commanders. When you think of the Detroit Lions, you think about how good and efficient their offense is. Not enough people are talking about how good the Lions' defense. Has been this season. 7th in opponent, uh, success rate, 6th in opponent EPA per play, 4th in defensive DVOA. So they are top 10, borderline top 5 defense in the league this season. And now they take on a commander's offense who will be without their starting quarterback. Jaden Daniels is hurt. Marcus Mariota is getting the start. Uh, so I don't know if the Commanders are gonna be able to score enough points to contribute. This relatively high total. Uh, so I will bet the under between the lines of Commanders under 48.5 at -104, which leads me to my last pick. I talked about it earlier in the pick and pool part of the show, uh, the Steelers. To cover the 2.5 point spread as underdogs against the LA Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Just to reiterate there as well, uh, the Chargers have allowed the highest pressure rate. Per dropback in the NFL this season, getting pressured on 26.5% of Justin Herbert's dropbacks. And now they take on a Steelers team who is one of the best at creating pressure. Most notably, of course, TJ Watt will be pressuring Justin Herbert and giving him nightmares, uh, all weekend. So I just don't think the Chargers' offense is gonna be able to move the ball enough to win with margin, and it is worth noting. The Chargers' defense has regressed this season. They started off very strong, but over the past few weeks, they have gotten worse. They're now just 17th in defensive DVOA and they've allowed 5.2 yards per carry. So those are my four, excuse me, bets for this weekend. Oh, that's a bad sign, that's a bad omen. Um, I'm choking on my own plays. We gotta look in the safe to see what money I have to bet with today, uh, including, we know that there should be, uh, if magic happened, an extra $12 for my darts throw, and look at that. Uh, we got a lot of coins. What am I, piggy bank here? Look at these coins. Uh, yes, $112 we have the $100 bill. This is Canadian money, not Monopoly money. Uh, $5 bill. Uh, who's on the $5 bill, Scott, do you know that one? Nathan McKinnon. No, it should be though, Wilfrid Laurier. Uh, and then I have loonies and Toonies. 12345675 loonies, 1 Tooney, that's $112. Uh, that does make it a little bit more complicated for how I wanna divvy up this money. I think I'll just put the $12 extra on my favorite play, so I'm gonna go $30.30 dollars, 20/20, but my best play is gonna be $30 plus $12. So what is my best play out of these? My best play is, unfortunately, it pains me to say this, Jonathan Taylor to torch my Atlanta Falcons. This is a nightmare matchup for the Falcons' defense. So I will go. That's $42 on Jonathan Taylor over 91.5 rushing yards and minus 114. My other $30 play is going to be. Uh, the Steelers on Sunday Night Football plus 2.5 minus 105, that's a $30 play, $20 on, uh, the Lions Commanders under 48.5, and $20 on Oregon minus 6.5 against Iowa. Uh, those are my, uh, best plays for this weekend. This has been Play It Safe, presented by FanDuel. Stick around, because we gotta wrap up the show with my teaser of the week, and we are going to try to hit a two-leg parlay to take the first step on the parlay peak. Let's wrap up this week's episodes with my teaser of the weekend, parlay of the day, parlay of the weekend, more like it, but we're gonna start with the teaser. Uh, I'm gonna go with two underdogs on the teaser this week. I do believe my teaser lost last week, cause I think I got the Lions in the teaser last week, they lost outright to the Vikings. Uh, so let's see if we can bounce back with a win. I'm going to take, uh, the Patriots. Patriots, I'm just gonna start doing the abbreviation, that's gonna be so much easier, plus 2.5, up to, plus 8.5, because we are doing a two-leg 6-point teaser, as I always talk about in these 6-point teasers, we want to cross key numbers. If we are taking the Patriots from 2.5 up to 6.5 uh against the Buccaneers, we are crossing key numbers of 3, so if they lose by field goal, that's OK. We're crossing a key number of 6 and 7, so if they lose by touchdown, we're OK there as well. Uh, so I don't know if I necessarily like the Patriots to win that game all right or just cover the 2.5 point spread, but I really like it. Uh, I really like them covering that 8.5 point spread when you do the 6-point teaser. Their offense is good enough. I think they can keep this, uh, within a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Yucks. And, uh , the second leg, I'm going to go with the Texans. I said I was just gonna do abbreviation. Houston, who is a 1.5 point underdog to Jacksonville, I'm gonna tease that up to + 7.5. Uh, I know that it is long neck Davis Mills who is starting for the Houston Texans. Long neck Mills. Uh, but still, the Texans' defense alone, even if you take their offense out of the equation, the Texans' defense alone, I think can keep this a close game. They're top 5 in almost every single metric, top 2 in most pass defense metrics, and now they take on Trevor Lawrence, who you know my thoughts about Trevor Lawrence. I think he stinks. Bottom 3, in my favorite quarterback stat, uh, EPA plus CPOE expected points added plus completion percentage over expected. So I think the Texans can keep this within a touchdown, and if we're taking it from 1.5 up to 7.5, we're crossing key numbers of 3. So if they lose by a field goal, we're OK, we're crossing the key numbers of 6 and 7, so if they lose by a touchdown, we're OK there as well. Uh, so that is my 6 point teaser of the week. Taking the Patriots up to 8.5 against the Buccaneers, taking the Texans up to 7.5 against uh the Jaguars, my two-leg 6-point teaser of the week. All right, and now we'll wrap everything up with my parlay of the day. This is supposed to be a fun segment we came up with last week where we're gonna climb the parlay peak and I was gonna win a two-leg parlay, and then the next is gonna be a 3-leg parlay. Then it starts to get fun as we get to a 4-leg and 5-leg parlay. It's been. Disaster. I can't win a two-leg parlay to save my life. Uh, last night was a two-game, same game or a two-leg, same game parlay. It was Ashton Genty, 3+ receptions, Bo Nix, 200+ yards. Neither happened. Uh, actually, Genty was about to catch his 3rd reception, and then it hit his hands and then went into a Broncos defender's hands for an interception. Didn't matter anyways cause Bo Nix didn't touch 200 yards. So, uh, that was very dumb. Me, uh, the two-leg parlay continues to lose on a nightly basis. I hope that I can come into the show on Monday, put a check on the two-leg parlay, and advance to the three-leg parlay. I'm gonna go with the NFL this week. I'm gonna go with two favorites. Uh, my rule was I can't have any leg be shorter than -250 odds. I have followed that rule, but just barely. These two teams are pretty significant favorites, but I just need a win here. I'm gonna Take the Ravens, Baltimore , who are -230, I believe, -230 against the Minnesota Vikings. I'll be fading 9, as he calls himself. I'll be fading JJ McCarthy. I'll be taking Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to keep things moving after two straight wins after their byeweek, they're -230. On the money line, I will also be taking the LA Rams, who are taking on. Uh, LA Braves were taken, why, why am I blamed on the team that the Rams are playing? The Forty-Niners, of course, I talked about this earlier, With my pick and pool, the Forty-Niners are very injured. The Forty-Niners are a completely average team by almost every single metric. So for the sake of the parlay, I'm not laying any points. It's money line only here, it's a two-leg moneyline parlay. The odds come out to plus. 107, so we're still getting plus money on the parlay there, of course, odds subject to change. Uh, but come on, hockey hasn't worked, Football didn't work last night, uh, uh, so I, I need the NFL Sunday to work. It's, I'm not doing a same game parlay, I'm not doing player props. It's straightforward. I just want two good teams to win. Two teams who are favored just beat their inferior opponents, the Ravens over the Vikings, the Rams over the 49ers. That's a + 107, two-leg parlay. Thank you for tuning in to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Best of luck to all of your bets this weekend, and I will see you all on Monday. Go get them, 35.