SEC Midseason Check-in: Alabama's Surge Has the Tide in Control

We're halfway through the 2020–21 college basketball regular season, and conference play is well underway across the country. As teams jockey for position both in their own league standings and for NCAA tournament seeding, Sports Illustrated is checking in on the seven major conferences in men's college hoops (American, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC) this week to see where each stands and how it has shaped up compared with preseason expectations.

We've already done the American, ACC, Big East, and Big 12. Up next is the SEC.

State of the Conference

When your conference’s banner program struggles, perception of the league as a whole suffers. That has certainly been the case with the SEC given Kentucky’s well-documented woes. Combine that with Bruce Pearl’s Auburn team having self-imposed a postseason ban in connection with the FBI’s investigation into college basketball, and you have arguably the league’s two best programs of the last three years struggling. But the growth of Tennessee into a potential national title contender along with the emergence of Alabama should keep the conference relevant this season come March, and those two programs continuing to improve will only make the conference stronger in years to come.

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Biggest surprise: Alabama

After some early-season struggles, Alabama has exploded onto the scene with an electric 7–0 start in SEC play. Everything clicked for Nate Oats’s team in an early January road upset at Tennessee, and the Tide have been firing on all cylinders ever since. While Oats may be known for his up-tempo, three-point-oriented offense, Bama has really locked in on the defensive end during conference play, keeping all but one conference foe under 1.0 points per possession so far this season. Combine an improved defense with an offense that features several dynamic guards like Jaden Shackelford, John Petty, Jahvon Quinerly and Josh Primo, and you have a team that will be tough to stop in the SEC. For Oats to have this program positioned as well as it is in just his second season at the helm in Tuscaloosa proves why he’s one of the best young coaches in the country. The sky's the limit for the Tide right now.

Biggest disappointment: Kentucky

The Wildcats might be the biggest disappointment not just in the SEC, but in the country. Ranked in the top 10 nationally in the preseason AP poll, the Wildcats got off to a disastrous 1–6 start, their worst since the 1926–27 season. And while a modest three-game winning streak in early January had Big Blue Nation dreaming of a turnaround, losses to Alabama, Auburn and Georgia brought things back to reality.

John Calipari just hasn’t found the right buttons to push, struggling to balance fixing an anemic offense that has shot the ball poorly all season with trying to develop elite freshman wing Brandon Boston. Boston may be leading the Wildcats in scoring, but the former five-star has shot just 7 for 43 from deep on the season and has often been a net-negative while on the floor. And while highly-touted point guard Devin Askew has played better of late, he’s not the dynamic offensive initiator Calipari needs to get this offense back on track. Add in some chemistry issues stemming from Cam’ron Fletcher’s leave of absence from the team, and this season has simply been a mess for the Wildcats. Kentucky's only path to the NCAA tournament right now is winning the SEC tournament this March.

The current favorite: Alabama

Even after a home loss to Alabama in early January, Tennessee looked like the SEC favorite. But Tuesday’s embarrassing blowout defeat to Florida combined with Alabama’s recent dominance makes me think the Crimson Tide are the team to beat. The Tide’s three-point barrage to blow out LSU was one of the most impressive offensive performances by any team in recent memory and showed what makes this Alabama group so special. And while Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the country, it now trails Alabama by two games in the conference standings and can’t win a tiebreaker with the Tide. The Vols have incredible upside, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a team playing better basketball than Oats’s team right now.

The top challengers: Tennessee, LSU, Missouri

Tennessee’s combination of elite recruiting pedigree, experience and coaching gives the Vols the rare mix of talent and veterans necessary for a deep March run. LSU’s dynamic offense allows it to score with anyone in the nation. Then there’s Mizzou, which started the season incredibly strong with a neutral-court win over Oregon and a rivalry win over Illinois in the season’s first month. It's since faltered some, with a road loss at Mississippi State likely to haunt it in terms of SEC title contention. The Tigers don’t have the top-end talent other conference contenders do, but they are a veteran-heavy group with three steady guards and an excellent big in Jeremiah Tilmon.

Dark horse: LSU

Few teams in college basketball can put up points in bunches quite like the Tigers can. Will Wade’s team is loaded with former elite recruits who can put the ball in the basket, headlined by the highest-scoring freshman in the nation, Cameron Thomas. If Thomas was at Duke or Kentucky, he’d be a household name throughout the sport thanks to his polished scoring package and ability to make tough shots. Pair him with a terrific point guard in Javonte Smart, a do-it-all forward in Trendon Watford and a versatile floor-spacing big in Darius Days, and you have a core that rivals anyone’s.

But can the Tigers get enough stops to seriously compete for a conference title? That’s the big question. Wade has raved about freshman guard Eric Gaines’s abilities on the defensive end, and the energy that the likes of Gaines and Georgetown transfer Josh LeBlanc have brought has helped force some turnovers for this Tiger unit. But LSU still ranks as the conference’s second-worst defense, per KenPom, after Tuesday’s shellacking by Alabama, a mark that will need to improve if it wants to seriously contend.

NCAA tournament outlook

Alabama and Tennessee each seem bound for top-four seeds in the NCAA tournament, and the Tide could continue to skyrocket through the national rankings if they keep this up. LSU also feels like close to a lock at this point, and a lot would have to go wrong for a Missouri team with résumé-boosting wins over Illinois, Oregon and Wichita State in the nonconference to get left out.

From there, there are more questions than answers. Arkansas looked strong early (albeit against a weak nonconference schedule) but has faltered of late. Florida clearly isn’t the same team without Keyontae Johnson, but could play its way into the bubble mix and seemed to find something in its upset win over Tennessee. South Carolina has been decimated with COVID-19 issues, but might have NCAA tournament talent. And of course there’s Kentucky, which could wreak some havoc if it gets hot at the right time. Four teams were likely to dance last season prior to the pandemic, and that number feels like the floor for this season.