What Michigan State and Duke Need to Do to Get Into March Madness
It’s officially March, and the presence of a pair of blueblood programs on the bubble will make the final days before Selection Sunday even more interesting. While North Carolina has played its way into lock status recently and Kentucky’s only path to the dance remains to win the SEC tournament, Michigan State and Duke are hovering right on the cut line with two weeks to go. What does each perennial power need to do to punch its ticket to Indianapolis?
Michigan State
NET: 77
Quadrant 1 Record: 4–9
Quadrant 2 Record: 2–1
Key Wins: Illinois, Ohio State, Rutgers, at Indiana, at Duke
Bad Losses: at Northwestern
Ten days ago Michigan State had virtually no shot at making the NCAA tournament. The Spartans were 10–9, 4–9 in conference play, and a week before had been beaten by 30 at home by Iowa in what was the worst loss in the history of the Breslin Center. One good week later and the Spartans are very much alive in the race for a bid. How? Essentially the Spartans had a season’s worth of opportunities for big wins in six days. A road win at Indiana is a nice feather in their cap, but the real needle-movers were home wins over Illinois and Ohio State that catapulted the Spartans into SI’s most recent projected field. But a blowout loss at Maryland Sunday took some wind from MSU’s sails and left it right on the cut line entering March.
The best part of Michigan State’s résumé is without a doubt the quality wins it boasts. Having two wins over top 10 teams in the NET is not something any other bubble team can claim now that Minnesota has played its way out of contention. Add in the two road wins against bubble teams, and MSU has a very appealing résumé for a committee that has traditionally rewarded those with great wins over those with great metrics. Also working in the Spartans’ favor is a lack of a catastrophic loss. The road loss at Northwestern isn’t great, but it sits comfortably in Quad 2 and won’t be a significant impediment to selection. Compare that to other bubble teams like Drake, Georgia Tech and Ole Miss with multiple Quad 3 losses, and MSU looks good in that regard.
The main holdup for the Spartans is a horrible NET ranking. Entering March, MSU is No. 77 in the NET, by far the worst mark among bubble teams. Last NCAA tournament, St. John’s had the worst NET in the at-large field at 73. In 2018 while using the RPI, the worst RPI in the at-large field was also No. 73, that time from Arizona State. Anything over 60 in the NET is a warning sign, and getting up into the 70s is far from ideal for selection. And considering the NET heavily weighs margin of victory into its formulas and Michigan State still has two games against juggernaut Michigan, that NET could get even worse by Selection Sunday.
The easiest path for Tom Izzo’s team to get in is to win one of its two games coming up against Michigan. A third elite win against a clear No. 1 seed would likely punch MSU’s ticket. But assuming they can’t win either game against the Wolverines, the Spartans desperately need to beat Indiana on Tuesday. That win, combined with two losses to Michigan, would leave MSU at 14–12 and 8–12 in the Big Ten. They’d then likely play another team around the bubble from the Big Ten in their first game of the Big Ten tournament, which they’d need to win before taking on one of the league’s top dogs in the quarterfinals. As of now I believe a 1–2 finish to the regular season combined with a 1–1 trip to Indianapolis would get MSU in, as long as its NET doesn’t get any worse. One more win over one of the conference’s elite, whether that be against Michigan this week or another top-tier team in the conference tournament, would likely lock the Spartans into their 23rd straight NCAA tournament.
Nick King/Lansing State Journal/USA TODAY, Scott Utterback/Courier Journal/USA TODAY
Duke
NET: 59
Quadrant 1 Record: 1–3
Quadrant 2 Record: 5–3
Key Wins: Virginia, Clemson, Georgia Tech
Bad Losses: Notre Dame, at Miami
Like Michigan State, Duke was considered “autobid or bust” until recently. But after a four-game winning streak in mid-February highlighted by a win over Virginia, the Blue Devils are back on the bubble and are a strong finish away from an at-large appearance. In many ways Duke’s résumé is the opposite of Michigan State’s: The Blue Devils have solid metrics, but lack top-end wins and have three Q3 losses. While it’s doubtful that the home loss to Michigan State that currently sits in Q3 will be looked upon negatively by the committee, the road loss to Miami and a home defeat against Notre Dame are less than ideal.
First, the good news for Duke fans. Metrics believe this team is NCAA tournament-caliber. The NET is actually significantly lower on the Blue Devils than KenPom, which has Duke as the No. 35 team in the country. That’s the second-best mark among bubble teams, behind only Georgia Tech. KenPom is one of the metrics the selection committee considers heavily in building out the field. The other piece of good news for Duke is its résumé isn’t quite as weak as having only one Quad 1 win might imply. Georgia Tech and Clemson are solid victories that could eventually sneak into Q1, and the Blue Devils will also have multiple additional Q1 chances in the coming days. Both remaining regular-season games (at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina) will be Q1 games, and Duke should get at least one and maybe more Q1 chances while at the ACC tournament.
Now, the bad news. Three Q3 losses aren’t good, even if Notre Dame and Michigan State aren’t bad teams. You never want something on your résumé that stands out in a negative way, and having three Q3 losses stands out compared to the rest of the bubble. And while Duke is well-liked by KenPom, its NET is less outstanding. The overall win-loss record also isn’t shiny, and ACC teams won’t get quite the same benefit of the doubt for that this year as Big Ten teams given the relative strengths of each conference. There’s just nothing special about this résumé.
As mentioned before, Duke actually has a great chance to significantly improve said résumé in the next two weeks, and will be doing so against very beatable teams. Winning two road games against potential NCAA tournament teams this week would move the needle for the Blue Devils, particularly because both would be Q1 wins. Add in the chance to make a deep run in a wide-open ACC tournament, and there are a lot of wins out there left to be had for Duke. At minimum I think Duke needs to win one of its remaining two regular-season games and win one game against a potential NCAA tournament team in the ACC tournament. That would likely leave Duke right on the cut line. If it can add three quality wins to its ledger by Selection Sunday (whether that be through a deep run in the conference tournament or sweeping this week’s games), I believe Duke will find its way into the field.
