March Madness Surprises, Dark Horses and More Entering the Men’s Sweet 16

Plus, which No. 1 seed could be next to go out?

The men’s NCAA tournament will be back in action on Thursday night with the Sweet 16, but before that, we’re breaking down the remaining bracket. We asked five writers to give their takes on surprises so far, the No. 1 seed that could be in trouble next, which double-digit seed could get to New Orleans and more.

Besides Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16, what surprised you most about the opening weekend?

Pat Forde: Iowa State is a shocker to me. The Cyclones were brutal offensively in their final three games leading into March Madness: scoring 36 at home against Oklahoma State, trailing Baylor 29–4 before rallying, and then scoring 41 and losing by 31 to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament. Even with a fortuitous draw—I think almost everyone would have welcomed the match with Will Wade-less LSU in the first round—I didn't think Iowa State could win that game and then take down Wisconsin in what was basically a Badgers home game. But kudos to the Clones for hanging their hat on defense and making just enough shots to survive and advance. From 2–22 to the Sweet 16 is fairly epic.

Kevin Sweeney: How much all four No. 1 seeds struggled. It’s certainly not new for top seeds to go down early, but Baylor getting bounced by UNC and all three other No. 1s seeing their tournament lives flash before their eyes was a good reminder of the amount of parity in this tournament. Gonzaga got all it could handle from a Memphis team that played tremendous basketball down the stretch, Kansas struggled to get past a severely shorthanded Creighton and Arizona was one foul call away from going home in the first weekend to TCU. Add in two No. 2s getting bounced, and it was a tricky first weekend for the top seeds in this tournament.

Jason Jordan: No. 1 Baylor’s collapse. For roughly 30 minutes, the defending champs didn’t look like they deserved to be on the same court with No. 8 North Carolina and only made a run after Tar Heels forward Brady Manek was ejected in the second half. Yes, the 25-point comeback was impressive, but I’m not so sure the Bears would have made that run if Manek, who had a season-high 26 points when he got the boot, was on the floor. And I can’t reiterate this question enough: Why in the world are you down 25 to North Carolina in the first place? Even in overtime, the Bears went 0-for-7 in the last 3:02, and Tar Heels guard RJ Davis scorched the physical and athletic Baylor backcourt for 30 points in the win. Baylor’s performance was the headscratcher of headscratchers.

Jeremy Woo: After seeing Purdue play five times in the regular season, I wasn’t sure what to expect—the Boilermakers (and Jaden Ivey) were a lot more up and down during the year than I think people realized from afar. I was pretty blown away by what I saw in Milwaukee over the weekend: Ivey has stepped up and found a more focused approach, and Purdue looks like a legit contender as a result. We’ll see if that holds, but its draw in the regional looks pretty doable.

Molly Geary: The fact that the Peacocks were the only mid-major to reach the Sweet 16 (no, I don’t consider Gonzaga or Houston to be mid-majors). With the extra COVID-19 year leading to some experienced groups outside the power conferences, I thought this might be a big March for mid-majors. There were some first-round upsets, for sure—like Richmond and New Mexico State—but then there was the Mountain West’s 0–4 performance and a host of other potential Cinderellas (like South Dakota State and Vermont) coming up short. Instead, most of the underdogs left are pretty big-name programs.

Miami knocked off No. 7 USC and No. 2 Auburn to reach the second weekend.

Brynn Anderson/AP

Which double-digit seed has the best chance at making the Final Four?

Forde: Michigan is the best remaining double-digit seed, but Miami has the best path. The Hurricanes play Iowa State to reach the regional final, whereupon they would face Kansas or Providence. The Jayhawks would be tough to conquer; Providence not so much. Regardless, it’s best to have one major mountain to climb between here and New Orleans instead of two. The Hurricanes looked good enough against Auburn to win two more (although the Tigers helped dig their own grave by being remarkably dysfunctional).

Sweeney: Miami. The bracket just opens up so much better for the winner of that Miami–Iowa State game than it does for a team like Michigan or Saint Peter’s. The Canes draw a Sweet 16 foe that ranks outside the top 150 in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and match up well with ISU because of their ability to take care of the basketball. And should Miami get past the Cyclones, it’ll take on the winner of Kansas or Providence, neither of which is an overwhelming team talent-wise. There’s a real path here for Jim Larrañaga’s club to get to New Orleans.

Jordan: Miami. The Canes’ quartet of guards—Charlie Moore, Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller—make them nearly impossible to stop on the offensive end, combining for 68 points in the 79–61 win over No. 2 Auburn. Their propensity to break down the defense and make shots tends to overshadow their toughness and grit on the defensive end. In the win over the Tigers, Miami held Bruce Pearl’s crew to just 1-of-13 from the field, forced 11 turnovers and swiped 10 steals. Moore, who stands just 5'10", grabbed nine rebounds and dished out eight assists, and the Canes only committed four turnovers. Plus, Miami had 30 fast-break points against Auburn. Good luck with stopping that.

Woo: I think the answer here is Miami—I saw it push Duke hard at the ACC tournament, and obviously, it just beat Auburn. The Canes have experienced guards and a proven tourney coach, and if they get past Iowa State, I don’t think it’s absurd to think they can beat (probably) Kansas. Michigan and Saint Peter’s have much tougher routes.

Geary: I was most impressed by Michigan’s wins, but the Wolverines’ region remains stacked. Going to also have to go with Miami—guard play can take you far in March.

Which No. 1 seed will be next to go down?

Forde: I believe Kansas is the least capable of winning it all, though it could still make the Final Four. The Jayhawks are good defensively but not a vintage Bill Self team at that end of the floor, especially inside, and they caught a huge break when Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner missed the round of 32 game. Arizona, Gonzaga and Purdue certainly have the big men who can exploit Kansas in the middle, if they all get to New Orleans. And let’s face it, we’ve seen a few Self teams implode at the regional level as well.

Sweeney: Arizona. The Wildcats have the toughest road to the Final Four of the three remaining No. 1s. Houston is so hard to play against because of how it defends and rebounds, and Arizona struggling with TCU’s tenacity on the offensive boards isn’t a good sign for the Wildcats against Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars. Plus, a win likely earns them a matchup with a Villanova team that is incredibly experienced and disciplined. Villanova may struggle with Arizona’s athleticism, but it makes shots and has played in more big games than Arizona.

Jordan: I typed Gonzaga at first but have ultimately decided to pick Arizona—just wanted my slight distrust in the Zags to be noted after watching them last weekend. Petty, I know. With that out of the way, I’ve got Arizona going fishing this weekend. It’s not just because of the blown no-call in the waning seconds of regulation against No. 9 TCU; it’s more about the Cougars’ suffocating defense potentially keeping Bennedict Mathurin in check enough to be in position to win at the end of the game. Houston held Illinois to just 34% shooting from the field, had six blocks and forced 17 turnovers. Don’t forget, Houston is doing all of this without its leading scorer Marcus Sasser. Kelvin Sampson’s style is gritty, swarming and relentless—a dangerous matchup for Arizona and one that will ultimately seal its fate.

Woo: I still have a gut feeling Gonzaga doesn’t survive its region. The Zags were bailed out in some respects by officiating against Memphis. Arkansas is well-coached and won’t be a pushover. Duke already beat the Bulldogs, and Texas Tech has improved a lot since they met in December. Arizona and Kansas would seem to have easier pathways ahead.

Geary: Despite having them as my title-game matchup, I have some wariness about both Gonzaga and Arizona. Neither has a particularly appealing path—especially compared to Kansas. I think the Wildcats are more vulnerable to Houston than the Zags are to Arkansas, however, so I will go with Arizona.

Has your national champ pick changed? Why or why not?

Forde: I'm still riding with Gonzaga. Freshman Chet Holmgren wasn’t great against Memphis and his perimeter shot has disappeared (0-for-9 from three-point range in his last three games), but the rest of the key Zags are raising their level of play. Drew Timme has been the best player in the tournament to this point, averaging 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds, and he’s perfectly willing to dog-cuss the best out of his teammates. Andrew Nembhard, so cool in the clutch, made several big plays down the stretch against Memphis. In the last three games, Rasir Bolton is shooting 78% from two-point range and 54% from three-point range. Memphis might have been good enough to beat anyone but Gonzaga this weekend, and the Zags would not submit. I’m sticking with the team fixated on finishing the mission that fell just short last year.

Sweeney: No, I'm still rocking with Gonzaga. At the end of the day, this is the most complete team in the sport. The Zags get great point guard play from Andrew Nembhard, have the best post scorer in the sport in Drew Timme and a game-changer in Chet Holmgren. I just don’t trust any team in this field more than I trust Mark Few’s Bulldogs right now, so I’ll ride with them even though the road won’t be easy.

Jordan: Yes, I’d originally picked Gonzaga to cut down the nets in New Orleans and now I don’t even have the Bulldogs coming out of the West. I’m now picking Duke to win it all, which has a lot to do with both teams. It bothers me that the Bulldogs needed a herculean effort from Drew Timme in the second half to squeak past the Tigers. That’s not a knock against Memphis, it’s just telling to me that, as the overwhelming favorite, they weren’t able to separate themselves. I say this all the time, but I’ll say it again, trends tend to carry over in March, and playing catchup eventually comes back to bite you. Duke had struggled in close games all season, but watching how it turned a five-point deficit with under four minutes left in regulation into a nine-point win was impressive. That was a moment. That kind of thing bonds a team. That’s why Mike Krzyzewski was crying after the game. He’s more confident than ever that his guys can do this. As a result, I expect Duke to step on the gas a bit more against Texas Tech. Duke already knocked off the Bulldogs earlier in the year and, at this point, my gut tells me history will repeat itself.

Woo: I’m sticking with Arizona, but mostly because I’m stubborn. That TCU game was awesome and an important adverse experience for the Wildcats, but also proves they’re not infallible. That Houston game could be nervy.

Geary: Well, I had Kentucky winning it all, so … Time to get back on the Gonzaga train. To be honest, there doesn’t feel like one obvious pick here, and I’d say about half of the Sweet 16 wouldn’t shock me at this point if they wound up cutting down the nets. But I think the battle the Zags had with Memphis will be to their benefit going forward—a year ago, they didn’t take a shot like that until the Final Four.