Ranking the 2022 Women’s Sweet 16: Who Can Challenge the Four No. 1 Seeds?

The first two rounds featured a few shocking upsets, but the top-seeded teams from each region emerged unscathed. How do the remaining teams stack up?

The first 68-team women’s NCAA tournament field has been whittled down to only 16 as the second week of play is finally set.

While all four No. 1 seeds advanced, there was plenty of madness to go around. Eight wins by double-digit seeds set the record for most ever in women’s NCAA tournament history through two rounds, a mark previously set in 2018. And two double-digit Sweet 16 participants also tied the prior mark. But before play begins later this week, we’re here to provide a reset, of sorts. Who’s the team to beat? And who’s just lucky to still be dancing? Here’s our updated top 16 power rankings.

Haley Jones, Paige Bueckers and Aliyah Boston (left to right).

Scot Tucker/AP; David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports; Sean Rayford/AP

1. South Carolina (No. 1 seed, Greensboro Region)

South Carolina cruised past Howard in its first-round matchup and defeated Miami by 16 in the round of 32. But Sunday’s victory over the Hurricanes also provided reason for concern: the Gamecocks scored only 49 total points and shot 29.5% from the field. While holding an opponent to single-digits in three consecutive quarters is, of course, outstanding, the same offensive limitations that revealed themselves in the SEC tournament remain present and could be a reason that South Carolina’s tournament run ends differently than it might hope. - Ben Pickman

2. Stanford (No. 1 seed, Spokane Region)

This Cardinal team is almost identical to the one that captured last year’s title. (Guard Kiana Williams, now with the Mercury in the WNBA, is the only player who has moved on from that championship roster.) And they’ve looked every bit as capable of winning it all as they were last season: They didn’t trail at any point in the first two rounds. One factor to watch out for: To beat Kansas in the second round, Stanford sank more three-pointers (13) than it had in any other game all year. The bulk of that came from a breakout performance from Lexie Hull, but five other players made at least one three, and if they can keep that kind of performance coming—watch out. - Emma Baccellieri

3. NC State (No. 1 seed, Bridgeport Region)

The Wolfpack cruised to an easy win in the second round over Kansas State. And perhaps the most impressive thing about the victory was who they didn’t need: After an early pair of fouls, leading scorer and rebounder Elissa Cunane had to be pulled by coach Wes Moore, and with the rest of the team more than capable of handling the situation, he let her keep resting up on the bench. Cunane played just 14 minutes all game and finished with four points and two rebounds. But with strong performances from just about everyone else—most notably Raina Perez and ACC Sixth Woman of the Year Diamond Johnson—the game was never in doubt. It was a reminder of just how balanced this team is: Yes, Cunane is incredibly talented, but she has a serious cast around her. That bodes well for the road ahead here. - EB

4. Louisville (No. 1 seed, Wichita Region)

Louisville was pushed for the first time this NCAA tournament in its round of 32 win over Gonzaga. The Bulldogs had leveled the score at 36 apiece just over a minute into the second half of Sunday’s game, but the Cardinals responded well and stretched their lead to 12 by period’s end. Key to their run was the outstanding play of sophomore guard Hailey Van Lith, who scored 21 points, her second-highest output of the season, in the win. If she can replicate that level of production, the group largely considered the weakest No. 1 seed could be a tougher out. - BP

5. Texas (No. 2 seed, Spokane Region)

The Longhorns cruised to victory in the first two rounds over Fairfield and Utah. The most exciting feature of those wins? Aaliyah Moore. The hyped-up freshman was sidelined for more than a month with a hurt ankle, but she’s been back since January, and she’s looked her best in March. Texas’s first two games of the tournament were Moore’s highest scoring of the season, with 18 and 21 points, respectively—even though she’s still not in the starting lineup. If she can continue to be this kind of weapon off the bench, Texas will be in good shape. - EB

6. Maryland (No. 4 seed, Spokane Region)

Now here is that explosive scoring from the Terps. After something of an up-and-down year, Maryland’s offense has shown up in the tournament in a major way, hanging 102 points on Delaware and 89 on analytic darling Florida Gulf Coast. But a big question going forward is what they can get out of their defense. This has never been an especially strong defensive team, and against a superpower like Stanford in the Sweet 16, they won’t be able to rely on their offense alone—even if it looks as good as it did in the first two rounds. - EB

7. UConn (No. 2 seed, Bridgeport Region)

At its best, this Huskies squad can be very, very good: No team in the country had a bigger average margin of victory this year. But “at its best” is a big caveat. Their second-round win over UCF actually showed them close to their worst—missing layups, struggling to set the pace against an aggressive defense and very nearly losing their chance to make it back to the Sweet 16. (They ultimately won by five points.) They have the talent to make a deep run. But if they fall short… it will probably look much like it did against UCF. - EB

8. Michigan (No. 3 seed, Wichita Region)

Senior forward Naz Hillmon was the best player on the floor during Michigan’s 64–49 win Monday night, finishing her final home game with 27 points and 11 rebounds. That performance came after another 24–11 outing vs. American in the first round. If Hillmon can maintain her level of play, it’s certainly very possible Michigan could find itself in the Final Four in a relatively open Wichita Region. - BP

9. Notre Dame (No. 5 seed, Bridgeport Region)

The Fighting Irish blitzed the Sooners in the first quarter of their blowout round-of-32 win and eventually took a 35-point lead into the halftime locker room. Their 108 points were the most they’ve scored all season and the most the program has ever scored in an NCAA tournament game. Notre Dame seems bound to regress, at least partially, in its Sweet 16 matchup with NC State. But the onslaught on offense does show just how dangerous it can be and how, despite missing the tournament last season, a Final Four run isn’t out of the question. - BP

10. Indiana (No. 3 seed, Bridgeport Region)

Indiana almost missed out on the Sweet 16: The Hoosiers escaped by just one point in the second round against Princeton. Their next opponent will be another tough defensive squad in UConn, and they’ll have to step it up, particularly when it comes to holding on to the ball. (They turned it over 17 times against the Tigers.) One more thing to keep an eye out for? All five of Indiana’s starters average double digits in scoring. But on Monday against Princeton, just three of them got there, led by talented guard Grace Berger. If they want to make it past UConn—and beyond—they’ll likely have to find that balanced scoring approach again. - EB

11. Tennessee (No. 4 seed, Wichita Region)

The Lady Vols came dangerously close to blowing a double-digit lead in the second round against Belmont. It’s clear just how much they miss Jordan Horston, their leading scorer and rebounder, who has been out since late February with an elbow injury. Coach Kellie Harper has said she’s day-to-day. Can she return for the Sweet 16? Her presence could be a massive difference-maker. But if Horston is still limited to the bench, Tennessee has a tough path ahead. - EB

12. ISU (No. 3 seed, Greensboro Region)

While star guard Ashley Joens was forced to carry the Cyclones’ attack in their opening round win over Texas-Arlington, Iowa State showed far more balance in its second-round victory over Georgia. Against the Bulldogs, four ISU players scored in double-digits, with Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Lexi Donarski leading the way with 20 points. Creighton’s three-point shooting could pose Iowa State problems in the third-round, but the Cyclones defend the three-point line at 30.8% clip and shoot a nation-best 38.9% from deep on offense. - BP

13. UNC (No. 5 seed, Greensboro Region)

The Tar Heels showed why they were one of the country’s top defensive teams this season in their round-of-32 win over Arizona. They held last year’s runner-ups to only 28.8% shooting from the field and 25.9% from three, forcing 14 turnovers as well. An upcoming matchup against South Carolina will prove difficult, but UNC’s defense is stout enough to limit the Gamecocks. The question is, will the Tar Heels’ offense be able to crack South Carolina’s stout defensive unit? - BP

14. Ohio State (No. 6 seed, Spokane Region)

Ohio State amassed one of the quietest major upsets of the NCAA tournament Monday night, taking a 10–8 lead late in the first quarter against LSU and never looking back. The Buckeyes shot 45.5% from three in the win with senior guard Taylor Mikesell making four of her eight three-point attempts. Ohio State’s 20 turnovers mark an obvious area of improvement ahead of its matchup with Texas. A win over the Longhorns would send OSU back to its first Elite Eight since 1993. - BP

15. South Dakota (No. 10 seed, Wichita Region)

South Dakota opened Sunday’s eventual second-round win over Baylor with an 11–0 run and never looked back. The Coyotes played disruptive defense to fluster Bears star NaLyssa Smith and ended up snapping the Bears’ streak of 12 consecutive Sweet 16 appearances. South Dakota’s trio of super seniors—Liv Korngable, Hannah Sjerven and Chloe Lamb—had made three prior NCAA tournament appearances before this year but had never won a game. Its defense should travel well to Wichita, where it will look to pick up a third consecutive upset win Saturday when it meets Michigan. - BP

16. Creighton (No. 10 seed, Greensboro Region)

The Bluejays have had a fairytale run through the tournament so far—upsetting first Colorado and then Iowa. But keeping the Cinderella story going will be a tough task. This is not an especially strong defensive team, and that should make for a difficult match-up against Iowa State and Ashley Joens. To stay alive, they’ll need to dial up their offensive power, especially from leading scorers Emma Ronsiek and Lauren Jensen, who came through in the clutch against Iowa. - EB