Arch Manning Leads Most Polarizing Cases in the SI99 Rankings
Sports Illustrated’s John Garcia Jr. selects one question posed to him through social media (@JohnGarcia_Jr and @SIAllAmerican) each week to delve into the college football recruiting topics fans want to know most about.
Whether a simple list from a fan on Twitter or something that’s a year in the making like the Preseason SI99, any author won’t have to wait long for a swift reaction.
It was no different this week at SI after the long-awaited release of the top prospects nationally, coming from fans, player parents and even coworkers under The Arena Group umbrella. While we won’t be sharing the details of certain interactions, the topics flooding the inbox have shared themes along the way. Themes as in prospects with varying opinions surrounding them, in particular.
Here are the three we are hearing most about.
QB Arch Manning
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Arch Manning is overrated. My initial response to the popular perception, especially since he committed to Texas over the last two national champions, is ‘how could he not be?’ There isn’t a high enough ranking for the phenom recruit to justify the type of expectations programs and people have put on the teenager, so any movement surrounding his name or ranking becomes a “hot take.”
The beauty in SI debuting its rankings ahead of these prospects’ senior seasons is to allow that initial feel to quell. We don’t rank right after the junior season to allow for more tape to get put together and/or circulate. We don’t do it in the spring because we’re still getting important in-person impressions on players who shined the season before, much like college coaches during their allotted time on the road. We don’t go early summer, either, so that camps and other offseason events don’t sway the thinking right before placing numbers next to names.
Instead it rolls out in the preseason so all data points can be weighed as necessary. This was especially critical for Manning, who doesn’t compete in events outside of his New Orleans (La.) Isidore Newman schedule. It means no Elite 11, club 7-on-7s, Under Armour circuit or anything else. His offseason was spring ball at Newman, in which SI attended, and team college camps thereafter, most notably right down the road at LSU. Of course, we have seen Manning at work for years prior, quite literally, since he has become such a traffic driver in the football world. With that foundation, he debuted in the top 10, though fifth among passers.
As the Newman offense opens up, schematically, 2022 could be Manning’s most productive season yet. Throw in true physical growth, as he is sitting at about 220 pounds right now, and the thought of a handful of passers being ranked higher come January in the postseason SI99 seems relatively unlikely.
Manning has added good weight to his 6’5” frame heading into his senior season.
John Garcia, Jr.
QB Jackson Arnold
The Oklahoma quarterback commitment’s supporters are no stranger to my inbox or Twitter handle, following SI naming Moore the Elite 11 MVP based solely on the camp performance. It was not long after the Elite 11 staff would name Arnold the top QB in the class, using criteria combining the camp with high school tape and other elements as the deciding factor. Naturally there was an accusation of bias, among other less safe-for-work judgments, around SI’s reasoning despite clearly defining it every step of the way and even ranking each passer on each workout day.
So now it has carried over to the SI99 release, in which Moore was at the top, and Arnold was the last name to make the cut at 99. Andrew Nemec, who heads up SB Live’s recruiting coverage, made the case for Arnold to be among the first few passers mentioned instead of 11th, where SI currently tabs him (in a loaded year at the position, no less). Many have asked whether SI weighed the offseason camping events too heavily relative to the 99. Although, again the primary criteria for the rankings have been explained at each stage. (The Friday-night lights are where it begins.)
Should the camps have dictated more of the rankings, much to the chagrin of the Sooner faithful, Arnold would have likely been left out of consideration altogether. But his production against strong competition, physical growth and strong arm was enough to get the nod in the end.
IDL David Hicks
Position projections are a tough call to make at times during the rankings process, something the 2023 cycle has again proven. Even in detailing some of the tough and/or close calls that had to be made this week, there’s a secondary layer to it. In David Hicks’s case, the value in his floor is clear as day. He’s a physical, disruptive interior force that lives on the other side of the line of scrimmage on Friday nights. It’s the ceiling that creates more questions in the evaluation.
Projecting that out at the collegiate level, the fundamental goal of the SI99 rankings, makes it a bit more complicated. Hicks is listed above 6'3", some 270 pounds and he carries it incredibly well. His skill set, from what we saw on tape and updated in person at multiple points this offseason, is that of a more comfortable outside-in prospect. It’s been done at that size before, à la the comp we recently landed on in thinking of precedent in current NFL defensive lineman DeMarcus Walker—but it takes the right fit and a buy-in from the prospect at the next level. If one is projecting him out long term, adding weight and moving closer inside would be the natural selection.
It's why the SI ranking of Hicks, No. 56, came with some pushback this week. The four major recruiting outlets consider him among the top few players in the class, with neither ESPN, On3, Rivals nor 247Sports tabbing him lower than No. 17. Not that being ranked the No. 4 interior defensive lineman is some kind of knock, but it’s a far cry from No. 1 perceptionally. Hicks is at his third school in three years, Katy (Texas) Paetow, where he should be the most dominant player on the field on Friday nights once more.
Have a recruiting question? Connect with @SIAllAmerican and/or @JohnGarcia_Jr to submit yours and it could be featured on the next mailbag.
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