These X-Factor Players May Shape Men’s College Basketball’s Title Race
As college basketball enters its final push to March, I took a look at five x-factors for five men’s contenders—players who may not be the leading name on the score sheet every night, but who possess the ability to get their teams over the top when it counts. They are as follows.
Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee
Stop me if this sounds familiar: Tennessee is a top team with an elite defense that occasionally gets hamstrung by its own sporadic scoring. The Vols have had success the past few seasons employing similar defense-first approaches—Rick Barnes has done a stellar job on that front—but haven’t made it past the first weekend of the tournament in that period, and have done so just once in his tenure. So while there’s plenty of reason to trust their effort and consistency on the defensive end to keep games close in the postseason, there’s fair skepticism as to whether these guys will actually score enough to make a deep run.
It appears that most of those crucial shot-creation duties will fall on sophomore guard Zeigler, who moved into the starting lineup a few weeks ago and supplies plenty of energy. However, he can be streaky, he’s not extraordinarily efficient and he doesn’t have ideal size with which to impose himself on games: Zeigler is listed at just 5'9" and certainly isn’t taller than that. We’ve seen small guards dominate college basketball in the past, and there’s a lot to love about Zeigler’s approach and effort—he’s quick, tenacious on defense and gets the most out of what he has. But for Tennessee to be a legitimate Final Four–caliber team befitting its ranking, he may have to carry them every night.
Zeigler is averaging 10.8 points and 5.2 assists this season.
Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
After stepping into the starting lineup, Zeigler strung together a series of solid performances, including 22 points and 10 assists in a big nonconference win over Texas, but he’s still prone to the occasional bad game—he’s scored in single digits on seven occasions this season, and against better opponents, that’s probably not going to get it done. Other than Santiago Vescovi, who’s played more of an off-ball role next to Zeigler and primarily moves the ball and shoots threes, the Vols don’t really have other creative players, occasionally feeding big man Olivier Nkamhoua, but mostly relying on group effort to scrap together sufficient offense (they’re among the nation’s top teams in assisted field goal percentage). It’s just really hard to win that way in the postseason, particularly when you’re not a high-end three-point shooting team (32.4%).
Bottom line, there are a lot of sporadic offensive contributors in the rotation here due to the fact that Tennessee runs a lot of sets to get offense—it relies more on flow and doesn’t have a nominal go-to guy (at least not yet). Zeigler is probably the guy who’s going to have to create and take the big shots for the Vols—it may take quite an individual effort from him for Tennessee to get over the hump and into the further rounds of the tournament. But he also strikes me as the caliber of competitor I like to bet on succeeding in pressure situations, and some heroic performances could potentially be on tap.
Jarace Walker, Houston
From an NBA perspective, Walker is the headliner at Houston, but from a college angle, he’s one of many cogs in a Cougars team driven primarily by its guard play. When the going gets tough, this is a team that’s going to rely on Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead, who have been one of the best backcourts in the country. In big games against top competition, those guys are going to show up most of the time. So I think the big swing factor here is Walker, who takes this team to another level when he’s scoring the ball confidently. He can make everyone’s lives much easier in March if he’s at his best.
On his good nights, Walker has been among the better two-way players in the country, and following a somewhat slow acclimation to college, he’s trending way up in conference play, displaying a bit more confidence as a jump shooter while providing consistent defensive backbone. His passing ability allows Houston to play inside-out at times, covering a bit for the fact that its guards don’t put a ton of pressure on the rim. The Cougars are a good offensive team, but it’s notable that they get to the line at a really low rate, and some of that can be boosted if Walker opts to attack opposing bigs and use his strength a bit more frequently.
The bigger key for Walker both in the short and long term will be making threes and showing the confidence to get those attempts up—it was a problem early in the season, and he’s since made a bit of progress, hitting multiple threes each night in a recent three-game stretch, including four against Temple on Feb. 5. It sounds so simple, but sustaining some of that—and forcing opponents to guard him all the way out to the line—is pretty pivotal to Houston being able to space the floor against top defenses. They shoot pretty well from distance as a team, but a lot of that volume is Sasser. To his credit, Walker is shooting north of 40% on the season, and the more he can hold steady, the better.
At this point, Walker has shown he can be the No. 2 guy next to Sasser. With a lot of wing minutes going to glue guy Tramon Mark, and point guard Shead a streaky offensive option, a lot may wind up falling on the freshman’s shoulders to keep things moving and step up when called upon. As a potential top-five pick in the NBA draft, Walker is talented enough to do it. He’s not a guy you’re throwing the ball to late in the clock, but he’s good enough to dominate the run of play when he’s at his best. If that starts happening regularly, watch out.
Noah Clowney, Alabama
Stating the obvious here: The Crimson Tide have the look of a serious contender, with a star shotmaker in Brandon Miller, a top-25, high-tempo offense and an elite defense as the bedrock of that success. In the three games Alabama has given up more than 80 points, it lost all three—but those are also the Tide’s only three defeats. They can be streaky shooting from distance, but I don’t think anyone questions Alabama’s ability to run, push tempo and successfully score on most nights. So I think a lot of the potential postseason dividends here are going to stem from maximizing stops when it matters.
That defensive success is largely predicated on Alabama’s ability to force difficult looks—the Tide don’t actually turn opponents over at an absurd rate, but they pressure the ball, limit open threes, try to take away the rim with their size and are typically comfortable allowing midrange looks. (In other words, this is a useful math-based approach to building a sturdy defense). Because they aren’t creating a ton of extra possessions via turnover, a ton hangs on the defense being consistent, unified and in the right place all the time, to try to limit open shots and the luck-based variance that accompanies them.
Clowney is a huge piece of why the Tide’s scheme works: In a vacuum, the fact that any title contender’s defense hinges heavily on the play of an 18-year-old freshman would invite skepticism, but Clowney has not been a normal freshman. He’s pretty disciplined defensively, he covers a ton of ground with his length and anticipation, he plays both ends in transition and in the half court and he augments the offense with his ability to play as a perimeter-oriented four, or as more of a true five in different lineups. Those are natural, reliable elements to his game, and that’s a big part of why Alabama has been so consistent—he’s an elite finisher, an adequate jump shooter for a big, he blocks and contests shots all over the floor, and he’s tough. There’s a reason why the NBA is calling way ahead of schedule.
Having said that, the stakes rise in March, and there are unpredictable factors that can make life unexpectedly difficult for younger and less-experienced players in those pressure situations. I’d argue that Clowney playing at a high level and staying out of foul trouble is so important to Alabama—perhaps even more than Miller, you could argue—that he’s the critical determinant in how far the Tide can go. We can’t expect him to suddenly shoot 40% from three, but he has it in him to swing games at the highest level. He’s also going to be playing a high-leverage, important role on huge stages. A supporting star turn from Clowney could be what gets Bama to the men’s Final Four for the first time.
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Kevin McCullar Jr., Kansas
Entering the season I personally was not wildly optimistic about Kansas’s odds of contending after losing Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, and David McCormack off last year’s title team, but Bill Self worked his magic again, Jalen Wilson made a huge leap and there’s enough talent on the roster that the Jayhawks are making it work (again). Apart from a three-game losing streak in late January, Kansas has been pretty consistent, boasting a top-25 offense and defense on KenPom, which historically bodes well for postseason success.
McCullar played three years at Texas Tech before transferring to Kansas.
James Crisp/AP
What Kansas doesn’t have a ton of is depth: its starting five soaks up a bulk of minutes, and no reserve averages more than four points or plays more than 14 minutes a game. Self has mixed and matched with the bench as necessary, but barring an unexpected change, the Jayhawks’ preferred lineup is what it is—and as a result, a ton of responsibility rides on McCullar, the senior transfer from Texas Tech. McCullar has been mostly steady this season, working as the Jayhawks’ top perimeter defender and as a secondary scorer. Kansas will need him at his best to have a chance against deeper opponents, and ones who feature high-scoring wings. He’s reliable defensively and has a strong 4.2% steal rate, but a step up on the offensive end may be necessary for the team to peak.
McCullar has never been a spectacularly efficient scorer, and his individual shooting splits are in line with where he’s been for some time—he’s shooting 48% on twos, 29% from three and 76% from the line, all average to below-average marks. Part of Kansas’s occasional offensive struggles have stemmed from the fact that it doesn’t put a ton of pressure on the rim: Beyond the heavy diet of touches that goes to Jalen Wilson each game, the Jayhawks don’t really have a go-to guy, and they don’t have perimeter scorers that excel playing downhill. Gradey Dick is an excellent shooter and can shoulder some of the scoring load, but he’s not especially creative and mostly has to attack closeouts to get to the rim right now. Point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. is a distributor and doesn’t hunt a ton of shots. KJ Adams Jr. has largely been excellent as an undersized nominal center, but the Jayhawks aren’t drawing up a ton of plays for him.
That leaves McCullar as a necessary component of the offense. You can’t expect a giant spike in volume at this point, but he’s going to need to make more open threes in order to open up more for him going into the paint. Kansas runs a tried and true offensive scheme that helps cover for the lack of individual shot-creation on the team, but sometimes, someone other than Wilson has to be able to go get a bucket. McCullar has scored in double figures most games this season, but he occasionally has off nights, and when that happens, Kansas has tended to struggle. The Jayhawks need him to be a presence, to be more efficient and to make good decisions when the creation duties come his way, and he’s capable of being the guy they need. He just has to do it consistently.
Donovan Clingan, UConn
It’s anyone’s guess which direction the wind blows for the Huskies’ frontcourt, which features the country’s best true center tandem in experienced Adama Sanogo and 18-year-old freshman Clingan, who never share the floor and provide vastly different looks. The 6'9" Sanogo is a productive bruiser who’s earned his role and gets the lion’s share of playing time. Clingan is a uniquely large young player who’s shown incredible flashes of talent, standing 7'2", 265 pounds. It’s hard to see Dan Hurley ever tipping the scales too far away from Sanogo, and there’s the fair element of how many minutes a game Clingan can really handle, but it’s an interesting question that may wind up defining how UConn’s postseason fares.
This season somewhat echoes last year’s Purdue team, where the Boilermakers platooned star centers Trevion Williams and Zach Edey and were, for better or worse, a very different team depending on which guy was on the floor. It’s usually a good problem to have, to be clear. But there’s a case to be made that Clingan could be playing more: Look no further than his dominant showing in a road loss to Marquette on Jan. 11, with 20 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks against the undersized Golden Eagles front line. Clingan is fairly nimble for such a huge guy and has good touch around the basket, and there are very few players who can match up with him one-on-one. He leads the team in box plus-minus, albeit in limited minutes—and it would be easier to make a case for him were Sanogo not so capable.
It’s hard to be an effective transition team (which UConn is otherwise suited to do) with Clingan on the floor, as he’s not a fleet mover in space and relies more on size and positioning than a fervent motor like Sanogo. When he’s in the game, the play has to slow a bit. It’s also a bit difficult to maximize him alongside top defender Andre Jackson Jr., who opposing teams can usually leave open from three-point range in favor of sending help, loading up or even doubling the post (which is how most teams have to deal with Clingan). The fit is imperfect, and as a result, Clingan can’t play big minutes in every single matchup.
Still, we’ve seen how Clingan can create real problems for certain opponents, and he’s positively impacted games when given the opportunity. We’ll see how much trust he ultimately earns, whether Sanogo can avoid foul trouble and whether the Huskies will wind up in situations that call for the minutes to skew in his direction. UConn looked like a contender going into the New Year, then dropped six of eight games in conference play, and now seems to have found a groove. On a fairly deep team, it’s Clingan who’s quietly drawn attention from NBA scouts over the course of the season, which tends to be an indicator that he deserves a little more run. I have a feeling this dynamic will have a lot to do with how March goes for the Huskies.
