Selection Sunday 2024: Bracket Reaction for March Madness Tournament
St. Patrick’s Day festivities truly took on the stature of a Leprechaun in comparison to college basketball's Selection Sunday 2024. With an official March Madness field of 68 teams set, millions begin their quest for the perfect bracket, tinkering and over-analyzing until the Round of 64 commences at 12:15 PM ET Thursday.
In this article, I take you through my Selection Sunday bracket reaction with thoughtful analysis, complete with March Madness predictions and March Madness odds powered by FanDuel Sportsbook. All new FanDuel users located in AZ, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VT, WV or WY are eligible to earn $200 in bonus bets with a successful $5 first bet.
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🏀 MARCH MADNESS PREDICTIONS: McNeese State to Make Sweet 16 (+820 at FanDuel) & New Mexico to Make Sweet 16 (+250 at FanDuel)
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🔮 Selection Sunday Bracket Reaction: Who Will Win March Madness 2024?
It’s a simple question to pose and an important one to ask, but arriving at a confident answer is far from easy. In short, I have no problem backing the favorites, top-seeded UConn to Win March Madness (+400 at FanDuel) and be the first repeat champion since Florida did it in 2006-07.
UConn may not be quite as talented and star-driven as they were a year ago, but more consistent and almost completely matchup-proof this season. With the nation’s most efficient offense, UConn prefers to play at a deliberate pace but has the personnel and athleticism to get up and down with teams that prefer a track meet.
UConn plays with tremendous balance: Tristen Newton has made significant strides as a steady playmaker and secure ball handler at point guard while continuing to score at three levels. Cam Spencer is a clutch sharpshooter that can also scrap and slash. Freshman Stephon Castle has an NBA-ready body with advanced physicality for his age, and he can get downhill and finish through contact. In the frontcourt, Alex Karaban is the epitome of a reliable pick-and-pop forward, while 7’2” center Donovan “Cling Kong” Clingan anchors the paint with great two-way presence and skill.
UConn can get a little trigger-happy from beyond the arc and fall victim to foul trouble with a defense that gets overly aggressive but considering these may be their greatest faults, I prefer siding with Dan Hurley’s Huskies relative to the rest of the field. A tough 8/9 matchup looms regardless of who wins between Northwestern and Florida Atlantic in the second round, and a potential matchup with Auburn in the Sweet 16 could very well be the game of the tournament. Nonetheless, I can't get sheepish on the Huskies now because of a difficult path.
One nugget to consider: Since 2017, one of the top two teams in efficiency since February 1st has at least made the championship game. After Selection Sunday 2024, UConn and Houston are the top two in efficiency since Feb. 1. UConn and Houston lead the East and South, which are the two most stacked regions of the four that make up the field, but I like UConn’s chances to make it out of their region more so than Houston because I can’t trust Houston’s offense to do enough to win six straight games.
While Houston can dominate any opponent with suffocating defense and elite rebounding, we just saw them lose the Big 12 Championship by 28 points to a like-minded Iowa State team.
Other March Madness favorites include the likes of Purdue, Tennessee and Arizona. I can’t pick Purdue or Tennessee until I see them come through in March and I can’t pick an Arizona team dependent on the production of the volatile Caleb Love.
For a No. 1 seed, I love the value in North Carolina to Win March Madness (+1600 at FanDuel). Similar to UConn, the Tar Heels play with great balance and can play at any pace. They are great on the glass, committed on defense and led by uber-productive guard R.J. Davis and big man Armando Bacot – two players who reached the championship in 2022.
If you are seeking a dark horse pick, Auburn (+2000), Kentucky (+3000) and Duke (+4000) all present suitable options. Duke and Kentucky certainly possess the talent, while Auburn brings the depth, fundamentals and energy of a championship unit.
25 of the last 26 champions have entered the tournament with a top 20 KenPom offense and a top 45 KenPom defense. This year, that list consists of UConn, Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Arizona, Duke and Creighton, with several teams just missing the cut.
🎯 March Madness Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for 2024
Discussing a potential champion is a bit exhausting, especially when we have so much to enjoy long before any team is crowned. The first weekend of games, in particular, is where March Madness makes its name. My initial reaction to Selection Sunday 2024 brings two best bets focused on the type of first-weekend chaos people love:
March Madness predictions: McNeese to Make Sweet 16 (+820 at FanDuel) ✔️
Picking No. 12 seeds over No. 5 seeds is common practice for any fan who enjoys filling out brackets. After Selection Sunday 2024, we certainly have some worthy options. James Madison, their sport-leading 31 wins, and the nation’s longest active win streak come to mind when they square off with Wisconsin. However, the No. 12 seed I feel most comfortable backing not only to win in the Round of 64 but also in the Round of 32 is the McNeese State Cowboys.
After 23 losses in 2022-23, McNeese brought in accomplished but controversial head coach Will Wade, and he put his name back in the good graces of the sport with a 30-win season, led by a collection of players with experience at the high-major level. Star player Shahada Wells is one of the most indispensable guards in the country. Wells scores in a variety of ways, he makes plays for his teammates and is a pest on defense, averaging 3.0 steals a game. Wells’ time at TCU no doubt made him a better player, just as Ole Miss prepared Antavion Collum, Tulsa prepared Christian Shumate, UMass prepared Javohn Garcia, Florida prepared C.J. Felder and Cincinnati prepared Mike Saunders Jr.
McNeese excels at ratcheting up pressure and creating turnovers on defense while also protecting the paint extremely well. The only ways to regularly score on McNeese are at the charity stripe and from beyond the arc.
Luckily for the Cowboys, their first-round opponent, Gonzaga, hardly takes three-pointers, almost exclusively relying on scoring inside the arc. With a matchup advantage and no distinct drop-off in overall talent, McNeese has a great chance to skate by the Zags, before potentially taking on a battered, declining Kansas team that also produces very little from three-point land.
McNeese beat the likes of UAB, another No. 12 seed, by 21 on the road, beat VCU on the road by double digits, who was one win away from a berth in this field, and even beat a power 5 program, Michigan, in their building by double digits. Selection Sunday 2024 unveiled a weak Midwest region, so McNeese State to Make Sweet 16 (+820 at FanDuel) is a value pick with plenty of upside.
March Madness predictions: New Mexico to Make Sweet 16 (+250 at FanDuel) ✔️
Rick Pitino and St. John’s were snubbed from the field, but son Richard Pitino and New Mexico, led by undersized guards Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. would not be denied, winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
New Mexico plays a fun brand of basketball, highlighted by an electric pace and converting buckets in the paint. New Mexico uses the elite speed and talent of its guards to get downhill and score in transition.
Despite the frantic pace, New Mexico surprisingly takes excellent care of the basketball, increasing the opportunity for quality looks in games with lots of possessions. Backing an underdog that doesn’t rely on three-pointers always feels safe, and with Clemson in the first round and potentially Baylor in the second, New Mexico should have the opportunity to exploit a couple of average defenses, staying in the game until the very end, putting the pressure on the higher-seeded squads in crunch time.
Clemson doesn’t have the athleticism or high-end talent to dictate the terms of the game and put New Mexico away. With Clemson’s reliance on streaky three-point shooting, New Mexico might have a chance to win by double digits.
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🔢 Latest Betting Odds for March Madness Tournament via FanDuel
Below, find FanDuel Sportsbook’s March Madness odds tied to my March Madness predictions:
- UConn to Win March Madness: +400
- UNC to Win March Madness: +1600
- McNeese State to Make Sweet 16: +820
- New Mexico to Make Sweet 16: +250
A $10 bet on the best bet from my Sunday Selection 2024 bracket reaction: McNeese to Make Sweet 16 (+820 at FanDuel), profits $82 if they can win their first two games of the tournament, thus reaching the second weekend.
🥇 Past March Madness Winners
Here is the list of March Madness winners dating back to 2000:
- 2023: UConn
- 2022: Kansas
- 2021: Baylor
- 2019: Virginia
- 2018: Villanova
- 2017: North Carolina
- 2016: Villanova
- 2015: Duke
- 2014: Connecticut
- 2013: Louisville
- 2012: Kentucky
- 2011: Connecticut
- 2010: Duke
- 2009: North Carolina
- 2008: Kansas
- 2007: Florida
- 2006: Florida
- 2005: North Carolina
- 2004: Connecticut
- 2003: Syracuse
- 2002: Maryland
- 2001: Duke
- 2000: Michigan State
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