Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Texas Tech Red Raiders

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (12-5, 2-4) bounced back with a 2-0 week over recent days, but there's no rest for the weary in this 2024-25 Big 12 schedule. Texas Tech (13-4, 4-2) comes to town on Tuesday night for a huge Quad 1 matchup between the two schools.
The Red Raiders enter this game ranked No. 15 in the NET and 12th on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 39th in the NET and 40th on KenPom. UC needs to prove it can beat top teams (0-4 in Quad 1 games this season) and show more offensive growth in the process.
ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Cincinnati a 52.7% chance to win the game. UC is 2-0 against Tech since the 1949-50 season.
"Simas (Lukošius) seems to be back in a good rhythm, which is really important," UC head coach Wes Miller said after Saturday's 67-60 win over Arizona State. "We're doing a better job of putting guys in position. I think they'll all benefit from that."
Offensive Storyline: Quad 1 Quality
Cincinnati has a huge chance to prove itself in a clearly winnable Quad-1 opportunity. They've lost all four of these games so far this season (@ Villanova, @ Kansas State, V. Arizona, V. Kansas) and will never reach their NCAA Tournament seeding ceiling by continuing to fall flat.
It's been a theme throughout Miller's tenure. You could argue talent deficits played the biggest role in his 6-25 Q1 record through the first three seasons, but there is no excuse to be 0-4 this season or 0-5 after tomorrow night. Cincinnati has the talent, especially on offense, where it needs to start leaning into strengths we saw against ASU.
The Bearcats posted 25 fastbreak points on Saturday, and that needs to be the goal every game for a basically broken half-court offense at this point in the season. TTU (290th in adjusted tempo, 230th in possessions per game) will know that weakness and lean into its own slow pace to grind this offense to dust.
The Red Raiders boast one of the better defenses nationally (35th in adjusted efficiency) and power it with elite rebounding defense (30.5 rebounds allowed per game, 18th-best nationally) and rim defense (45.9% allowed from two-point range, 42nd nationally). Cincinnati's frontcourt will have to get through TTU's best player on both ends: Forward JT Toppin (16.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.3 combined blocks/steals).
The 6-9 hyper-efficient player can do it all besides outside shooting and passing. He's going to deter rim attacks all game long and make it imperative for Cincinnati to hit some open threes. They are getting them up in conference play, but they aren't going in (26.9% from outside on 22.3 deep attempts)
Tuesday would be the perfect time for that to flip above 30-35%, or it's going to be extremely difficult to get the win against a team that's shooting 38.9% from deep on the other side (16th). Tech's been leakier with its three-point defense (32.3% allowed, 152nd nationally) and that's the weakest spot of their defense to attack.
Double-digit made threes is a good winning bar to clear, as is continued aggression around the rim for fouls. UC's 28 made free throws were a crucial reason for its first two-game conference win streak in the Big 12. The free throw spigot cannot run dry against the best defense they've faced in over a week. One that can get over-aggressive (15.4 fouls per game, 307th nationally)
Defensive Storyline: Defend The Three, Don't Foul
The Tech matchup brings up storylines similar to ASU. However, the Red Raiders' efficiency is on another level compared to most teams. Ball movement and shooting are top-notch out of this unit and it's led to that red-hot near 40% mark from outside.
TTU can operate in the half-court much better than UC, but they haven't faced many defenses like the Bearcats'. UC is allowing the fewest made threes in the country (4.9 per game) and the second-lowest percentage (26.9%). Smothering chances from guys like Chance McMillan (14.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 47% from deep) before they even go up is the best path to limiting TTU to 80 points or less.
The 6-foot-2 guard is arguably the best shooter in the conference (67.5% effective field goal rate, No. 1 in Big 12), and he gets set up consistently by the top assist man in the Big 12, Elijah Hawkins (9.1 points, 6.4 assists).
He's the hub of Tech's elite passing tendencies (17.6 assists per game, 17th nationally). Something's gotta give here in one of my favorite offensive/defensive matchups in a UC game this season. There are high-level individual matchups between Toppin and Dillon Mitchell ready to go, among others.
Cincinnati's only allowed 10.4 assists per game this season (tied for 20th nationally) and hasn't let the pace get dictated to them once in Big 12 play (no winning scores above 72 points). It's imperative to keep a stranglehold on the tempo and force deep-shot-clock offense against the best offense it's faced since the Villanova loss.
Prediction: 65-64 Bearcats
Season Prediction Record: 14-3
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