What Chance Do SP+ and FPI Give Georgia Tech Against Georgia This Saturday?

The betting markets are not giving Georgia Tech much of a chance in the latest edition of Clean, Old Fashioned Hate and neither is the analytics.

It should be noted that Georgia Tech has won a pair of games against ranked teams when they were significant underdogs. They traveled on the road to Pitt when they were three-touchdown underdogs and got a win outright against the Panthers. This past weekend, Georgia Tech went on the road again as three-touchdown underdogs against No. 13 North Carolina and took down the Tar Heels.

The Yellow Jackets have not been able to beat the Bulldogs since 2016 and the games have not been close in the years since. Interim head coach Brent Key has a big task in front of him to just try and make this game competitive.

Vegas has Georgia Tech as 35.5-point underdogs heading to Athens this Saturday, but what do SP+ and ESPN's FPI have to say about this matchup?

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

FPI is giving Georgia a 98.7% chance of victory on Saturday.

It is not much different for Bill Connelly and his SP+ system.

Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:

"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."

"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

SP+ is the most pessimistic about Georgia Tech's chances. It projects a 48-0 win for Georgia and gives the Bulldogs a 100% chance of victory.

Once again, Georgia Tech is going to have to prove everyone and the computers wrong.

Georgia Tech vs Georgia is set to kick off at noon on Saturday in Athens. The game will be televised on ESPN.

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