Best and Worst Case Bracket Scenarios for Oregon Ducks' Playoff Seed

With the No. 5 Oregon Ducks predicted to go to the College Football Playoffs, fans and media members alike are speculating when and where the Ducks will play prior to conference championships cementing the official bracket.

As of the rankings released on Tuesday, the Ducks' current seed places them in the first round of the playoffs. Still, the the upcoming Big Ten Conference title game between the undefeated No. 1 Ohio State and equally victorious No. 2 Indiana, the SEC championship between No. 3 Georgia and No. 9 Alabama, the Big 12 championship between No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 BYU, and the wildcard No. 17 Virginia taking on unranked Duke for the ACC championship could shake up Oregon's ranking.

So, what's the best case scenario for the Ducks when the conference championship dust settles, and what's the worst in terms of hardest schedule in the post season?

Oregon would likely prefer to play in the first round instead of receiving a bye and waiting over a month in between games. With the No. 5 and No. 6 seed, on the other hand, the Ducks would likely be favored in the first round. However, the No. 7 seed could draw a first-round opponent like Alabama or Oklahoma.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks off the field after a timeout as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

2026's College Football Playoff Rules

First off, it's important to establish the current rules for the 2026 playoffs, which have changed since the 12-team format was introduced last season. In the simplest terms, the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will earn a spot in the 12-team bracket.

Each of the seven best performing teams will be judged by strength of schedule, championships won that year, and other factors such as availability of coaches and athletes that can affect the team's performance. The 13 members of the selection committee use these un-weighted terms to determine who enters the playoffs at what ranking.

It's also important to note that the higher ranked team in the first round hosts the game at their home stadium.

First Round Games

No. 12 at No. 5 - winner faces No. 4
No. 9 at No. 8 -winner faces No. 1
No. 11 at No. 6 - winner faces No. 3
No. 10 at No. 7 - winner faces No. 2

Oregon outside linebacker Nasir Wyatt sacks Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Current Prediction

As of Monday, Oregon is predicted to host a first round game, expected to occur on Dec. 20 at Autzen Stadium.

No. 12 Tulane vs. No. 5 Oregon - winner faces No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss - winner faces No. 1 Ohio State
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Texas A&M - winner faces No. 3 Georgia
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma - winner faces No. 2 Indiana

Though this current estimation gives Oregon an easier opponent out of the group in Tulane, and a home field advantage, the potential quarterfinals match-up puts Oregon against an incredibly talented Texas Tech, who's defense specializes in dismantling the pass game of their opponents.

The Red Raiders have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the year, holding the No. 2 slot in the country for opponents points per game (11.6) and No. 4 slot for opponent yards per game (266.7 yards). For an Oregon team that relies on big plays with starting quarterback Dante Moore, who's been up and down this season for success, facing Texas Tech is one of the worse outcomes for the playoff long game.

Nov 29, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) looks to pass the ball against the Washington Huskies during the first half at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

MORE: Internal and External Candidates Who Could Replace Oregon’s Will Stein

MORE: What Bo Nix's Comments Reveal About Marcus Mariota's Reputation

MORE: Impact Of Oregon Ducks Losing Offensive Coordinator Will Stein To Kentucky

The Best Outcome

For the Ducks, the best outcome (if Duck fans are willing to ignore the bye week curse that's commonly associated with the coach Dan Lanning era) is getting into the top four team to bypass the first round playoffs, as the current setup doesn't give a plethora of advantageous matchups.

In order for Oregon to make it into the top four, the Big 12 and SEC championships become more important in the grand scheme then the Big Ten title game. Because both Ohio State and Indiana are undefeated (and especially since Oregon's sole loss is to Indiana), only a spectacular and unlikely blowout would drop either team below the Ducks.

Both the SEC and Big 12 titles are re-match games. Georgia's sole loss came at the hands of Alabama in late Sept., while Texas Tech took down BYU 29-7 on Nov. 8. It's also important to note that the SEC Championship is in Atlanta, Georgia at Mercedez Benz Stadium (a likely home-feeling game for the Bulldogs). The Big 12 Championship game will be in Arlington, Texas at AT&T Stadium (Lubbock is an almost 5 hour commute to the stadium, and BYU typically travels well).

Oregon kicker Atticus Sappington celebrates a field goal as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Breaking Down the Champions

If Georgia takes another loss to Alabama, and Texas Tech wins, Oregon and the Red Raiders will likely move up a spot, bringing Oregon to No. 4, potentially facing a Tulane, Virginia, Georgia, or Ole Miss. If Texas Tech loses (it is hard to beat the same team twice in one year), and Georgia wins, Oregon has more of a chance to stay where they are, but could move up to No. 4.

If both teams lose to their lesser ranked opponents, Oregon most likely moves into the top four at either ranking.

So when it comes to both the SEC and Big 12 championships, both played on Dec. 6, Duck fans will want to keep their eyes glued to their televisions and hopes on some major upsets.