Ducks Digest

New Projections: Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes for Big Ten, vs. Georgia Bulldogs for CFP

In what should be a historic 2024 college football campaign with a new conference home for the Oregon Ducks and all the other college football realignment, ESPN's analytics computer tries to crunch the numbers to figure out how the Big Ten conference will play out.
Arden Cravalho|
Jul 25, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Jul 25, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. | Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

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Oregon DucksOhio State BuckeyesGeorgia Bulldogs

Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA all being thrown into the Big Ten Conference mix now has ESPN's analytics computer working overtime to predict what the conference standings will look like.

It's officially called ESPN's Football Power Index, a computer prediction model. It was developed back in 2013 and the ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams No. 1 through No. 128, but to correctly predict games and season outcomes.

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but it's determined by four components: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings, and coaching tenure.

Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day
Jul 25, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. | Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Once the computer put together all of this information heading into the 2024 season, it came up with the Oregon Ducks winning the Big Ten over the Ohio State Buckeyes in Indianapolis. Along with that, the Ducks are projected to win a total 10.8 games before the start of the College Football Playoffs, which Oregon has a strong 76% chance of making.

The Ducks also have a 24.4% chance of making the national championship and a 12.8% chance of winning the national championship. Only one team in the entire country has better odds, and that's Georgia. The Bulldogs have a 31.6% chance of making the national championship and a 21.0% chance of winning it all.

The rest of the Big Ten projections, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, stack up like this: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 Michigan, No. 5 USC, No. 6 Washington, No. 7 Iowa, No. 8 Wisconsin, No. 9 UCLA, No. 10 Nebraska, No. 11 Rutgers, No. 12 Maryland, No. 13 Northwestern, No. 14 Purdue, No. 15 Minnesota, No. 16 Illinois, No. 17 Michigan State, and No. 18 Indiana.

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Arden Cravalho
ARDEN CRAVALHO

Arden Cravalho is a reporter for Oregon Ducks on SI. He has been writing extensively about college athletics beginning in 2018, specifically as the lead writer and editor for SB Nation's 'The Slipper Still Fits.' Arden is a graduate of Gonzaga University and brings a deep understanding of college sports to his writing. Residing in San Francisco, California, Arden is also a part of the California Golden Bears' athletic department as a Ticket Sales and Service Account Executive. His overall experience and dedication to college athletics are evident in his insightfulness and analysis throughout all of his work.

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