Four Keys to Victory for Pitt vs. ECU

PITTSBURGH — The Pitt Panthers are one win away from their third nine-win season under Pat Narduzzi.

The Panthers are preparing to face an East Carolina Pirates team that will be without several key starters on offense and both coordinators in the Go Bowling Military Bowl.

This is a prime opportunity for Pitt to notch that ninth win, something it hasn't done since 2022. It is also an opportunity to improve the 2-5 bowl game record under Narduzzi, which includes a 44-28 loss to Navy in the Military Bowl in his first season as head coach.

Pitt may be over a touchdown favorite in this game, but it will still need to be at its best to beat East Carolina. Here are a few keys to the game that will likely yeild in a Panthers win.

Stop and Establish the Run

With starting running back London Montgomery reportedly entering the transfer portal, Marlon Gunn Jr. will very likely become the lead back against Pitt.

Gunn played an important role in East Carolina's top-40 rushing attack, with 523 yards and six touchdowns on 5.7 yards per carry as the No. 2 back. And without starting quarterback Katin Houser, expect the Pirates' offense to lean on the run game.

The good news for the Panthers is that they have the No. 9 run defense in the nation. Although that has been a strong suit of the defense, it has been gashed a few times this season, like when Heisman finalist Jeremiyah Love ran for 147 yards and one touchdown, or when West Virginia's Tye Edwards ran for 141 yards and three touchdowns.

So far, Pitt's All-American linebacker Kyle Louis will be the only key player missing on the defense. Even without Louis, I still expect the Panthers to stuff the run and make East Carolina one-dimensional with its backup quarterback.

Oct 25, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Jayden Scott (4) runs the ball against Pittsburgh Panthers defensive back Kavir Bains-Marquez (23) during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

On the flip side, Pitt needs to get its run game going early. The Panthers are 115th in rushing offense and will not have Desmond Reid or Juelz Goff in this game.

Fun fact: Pitt is 8-0 this season in games when the offense rushes for 100+ yards, but is 0-4 in games when the offense fails to eclipse the century mark in rushing.

The Panthers will lean on the team's leading rusher, true freshman Ja'Kyrian Turner, to get the job done on the ground against East Carolina's 29th-best run defense. Turner has 652 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry.

Protect Mason Heintschel

Pitt's freshman quarterback, Mason Heintschel, has been one of the most-sacked quarterbacks in college football this season.

The Panthers' offensive line ranks 128th in the country in sacks allowed with 40, and Heintschel has been sacked 30 of those times, which is 13th-most in the country.

Pittsburgh Panthers quarterback Mason Heintschel (6) prepares to fire the ball downfield while being pressured by Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (27) during the first half at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on November 15, 2025. | Michael Longo / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Now, all of those sacks aren't on the offensive line. Heintschel does hold onto the ball too long at times, but both the line and Heintschel will need to be at their best against the Pirates' defense that has the 35th-most sacks of any defense this season.

Heintschel is at his best when he has time to throw and navigate the backfield with his legs. The longer he's protected, the more time his receivers have to get open downfield, too.

Air it Out

This is part two of the previous point. East Carolina has a susceptible pass defense that allows 228.7 yards per game, and Pitt has had success throwing the ball, with a top-20 pass offense averaging 274.8 yards per game.

The good news is that Pitt's starting receiver core of Kenny Johnson, Raphael "Poppi" Williams and Cataurus "Blue" Hicks is still intact. Johnson and Williams each recorded over 600 yards and at least five touchdowns this season, while Hicks has made his mark as an explosive playmaker, averaging 17.6 yards per catch.

I like a lot of points being scored by this Panthers' offense, with most of it coming from Heintschel's arm.

Just Play Clean Football

This East Carolina roster and coaching staff is depleated. The Pirates don't have their offensive or defensive coordinators, starting quarterback, starting left tackle, backup tight end, wide receiver No. 2 and maybe their starting running back.

The spread for this game opened at 6.5 in favor of Pitt and shrank as low as 4.5, according to Odds Shark, but is now set at 10.5 in favor of the Panthers.

This is a game that Pitt absolutely cannot lose. The Panthers are the favorites against a depleted Group of Five roster in a bowl game that many Pitt fans feel the team is too good for.

If Pitt just wins the turnover battle, keeps penalties to a minimum and plays like the top 25 team it was at the end of the season, then the Panthers should win this game pretty handily.

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