Aaron Judge Injury: Yankees Impact in Shifting AL Playoff Race

Over the last few days, Aaron Judge has been the talk of Major League Baseball.

Judge is back on the Injured List after returning from the IL for a brief seven-game stint. Judge has played in just 66 games this season and the biggest question in baseball is whether he will be able to return during the postseason. If Judge is Judge, then the Yankees are built to make a run to the World Series. If Judge doesn't return, all of a sudden the Yankees look like a team that could have a short playoff run. On Monday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post gave an update that will could certainly impact the race.

"There's some strong possibility he doesn't play anymore," Sherman said. "Calf strains are notorious for when they heal, let them heal more because it is a re-injury area of the body."

At this point, the vibes aren't high or pointing towards a return for Judge. Calf injuries are tough. Jim Bowden of The Athletic reported that Judge is dealing with a soleus strain. The playoffs begin in eight days. On Sep. 29, the Yankees will begin a three-game Wild Card series, very likely against the Boston Red Sox.

If Sherman is correct and Judge doesn't return, it completely changes the calculus of the American League playoffs. A healthy Judge balances New York's lineup. Without him, the Yankees are lefty-heavy. Outside of Ben Rice, no other member of the Yankees has hit more than 20 homers as a member of New York this season. Luis García Jr. has 30 total homers, but has hit just seven in a Yankees uniform. The power threat isn't the same without Judge.

The Tide Is Shifting In the American League

Sep 14, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) celebrates hitting a three run home run against the Minnesota Twins in the eighth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

New York will have to face off against the Red Sox in a three-game Wild Card series, barring something shocking happening. Even if the Yankees were to win, they would then have to go against the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Division Series. A brutal one-two punch, to say the least.

Without Judge, that arguably should make the Red Sox the favorites in a three-game set. New York's lineup is lefty-heavy. The Red Sox happen to be loaded from a left-handed pitching standpoint. The Red Sox could roll with Payton Tolle and Ranger Suárez in two out of three games. Plus, Garrett Crochet is close to returning in a bullpen role. Imagine a scenario in which the Red Sox start either Tolle or Suárez in a game and then get multiple innings out of a healthy Crochet afterward? That's the worst-case scenario for a Yankees lineup that is full of lefties.

If Boston advances, it would be a toss-up between the Red Sox and the Rays in an ALDS series. Then, either would be the favorite in the American League Championship Series over the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians or the Texas Rangers. Arguably, the Red Sox should be the favorites in the American League in general right now with Judge out, although it would be close. The Red Sox have been the best team in baseball since the end of June and now the path is a little clearer.

The American League runs through the American League East. If Judge was fully healthy, New York would be the favorites. The Yankees' rotation is electric and this team can seriously put up runs when Judge is at his best. Judge is the most impactful right-handed hitter in baseball. This is a guy who three out of the last four AL MVP awards, including the last two years in a row. When he's on the field, he moves the needle. Without him, the Yankees are still good, but they're not as big a World Series threat.

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