Main card predictions for UFC 313 - Can Magomed Ankalaev dethrone Alex Pereira?

The UFC returns to T-Mobile Arena this Saturday night for UFC 313, and the MMA Knockout staff are ready to go head-to-head with main card predictions for the event.

We’ll be keeping track of this year’s stats as well as overall records dating back to UFC 309, which currently sees Zain Bando (@zainbando99) leading with 15 points, Drew Beaupré (@mmameditations) in second with 12 points, and Chris De Santiago (@Chris_DSantiago) in third with 11 points.

Let’s take a look at predictions for the UFC 313 main card.

Green vs. Ruffy Predictions

Bobby Green fights Jim Miller during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. — King Green fights Jim Miller during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Drew: Brazil's "Fighting Nerds" are probably the hottest team in MMA at the moment, and it's not often you see a fighter get back-to-back PPV bookings so early into their UFC career. I do think the current betting lines are massively disrespectful to a crafty veteran in Green, but if this turns into a straight-up firefight I'll side with the younger fighter in Ruffy. (Pick: Ruffy)

Zain: If I've seen one, this is a FOTN contender, making it a perfect main card opener. The fight marks Green's 28th UFC appearance, making him the most experienced fighter on the card. Although Ruffy's record is impressive with 10 KOs in 12 appearances (the other two being a loss and a decision win), there is no messing with an MMA OG. Period. (Pick: Green)

Chris: When Mauricio Ruffy and King Green are able to get into their flow, they’re golden. Ruffy has tremendous fight IQ, and his striking is relentless. I know Green might not have the best chin at 38 years old, but this his 50th fight, I think if Green is able to weather the storm in the first two rounds against Ruffy, he could turn back the clock and stage a comeback on a fatigued Ruffy. Though, there’s a chance Ruffy will take a more measured approach, being more patient and picking his shots. Whatever the case may be, we’re in for a fun fight. (Pick: Green)

Picks: 2-1 Green

How to watch UFC 313 & betting odds for Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Lemos vs. Lucindo Predictions

Weili Zhang fights Amanda Lemos during UFC 292 at TD Garden. | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Drew: Lucindo has already looked impressive in the UFC at just 23 years old, and a win here could put her just a fight away from a strawweight title shot. I don't know that Lemos will be able to earn a second crack at the title while Weili Zhang still holds the belt, but I will pick "Amandinha" to at least temporarily halt Lucindo's rise through the rankings. (Pick: Lemos)

Zain: Another pick where riding the hot hand seems like the smart play, but upsets are bound to happen. Similar to Turner, Lemos is due for a huge win but just hasn't gotten needed breaks. She has proven capable of beating the best in her division, including Mackenzie Dern, but needs to put it together. Iasmin Lucindo is too inexperienced in the UFC to justify a pick, as her competition gets stiffer each fight. Saturday against Lemos is no exception. (Pick: Lemos)

Chris: At 23 years old, Iasmin Lucindo is one win away from the Top 5. Her opponent, former title challenger Amanda Lemos, has the experience advantage. Getting past that hasn’t been too much of a problem for Lucindo, beating Marina Rodriguez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz - who both have more fights than Lemos. At this weight class, I believe Lucindo’s youth and athleticism should be able to scrape out a close decision against the veteran Lemos. (Pick: Lucindo)

Picks: 2-1 Lemos

Turner vs. Bahamondes Predictions

Jalin Turner during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Drew: He may officially be 1-3 across his last four fights, but it's easy to forget that Turner could be 3-1 with wins over top lightweights Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot with slightly different scorecards. This lightweight matchup is easily one of the most intriguing fights at UFC 313, and while I'm tempted to pick Turner I'll side with Bahamondes to extend his current winning run. (Pick: Bahamondes)

Zain: This is a momentum-based pick, if anything. Ignacio Bahamondes has won three of his last five fights and two-straight, whereas Turner has had a rough go lately. I could see the fight ending in two ways: a KO or a decision. Either way, the fight screams bad news for Jalin Turner, who hasn't won a fight in over a year. (Pick: Bahamondes)

Chris: In a battle between finishers, I really don’t see this fight going the distance. Turner has proved he can hang with the best in the world such as Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker, and this will be Bahamondes’ first opportunity at a ranking. I’m expecting Bahamondes to mix up all of his skills, threatening level changes and setting up strikes well. Bahamondes is a training partner of Belal Muhammad, and while the Chilean has been known to be a flashy striker, I think he shows new wrinkles to his game in the grappling department. Turner struggled there against Renato Moicano, and I think Bahamondes will look to exploit that for a stoppage. (Pick: Bahamondes)

Picks: 3-0 Bahamondes

UFC 313 full prelim fight predictions for Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Anakalev

Gaethje vs. Fiziev 2 Predictions

Justin Gaethje fights Rafael Fiziev during UFC 286 at O2 Arena. | Per Haljestam-Imagn Images

Drew: There are major question marks around both fighters heading into this matchup, as Gaethje is coming off a knockout loss to Max Holloway and Fiziev is returning for the first time since 2023. I don't love the fact that "The Highlight" has said he might return to his old fighting style this late in his career, and while I do think Gaethje should win this fight I'm going to slightly lean with Fiziev. (Pick: Fiziev)

Zain: It's still a solid fight even in Dan Hooker's absence, but similarly to the main event, rest and a full camp are key factors for me. Justin Gaethje has both, and with the lightweight division being up in the air regarding what could be next for Champion Islam Makhachev, this is a can't-miss fight. Rafael Fiziev is due for a win himself, but on less than a month's notice, the risk is too dire. (Pick: Gaethje)

Chris: I have some trouble understanding why Rafael Fiziev is a betting favorite, considering the fact he’s lost to Gaethje before, he’s fighting on short notice, and coming off an injury. Yes, Gaethje was knocked out cold for the first time in his career almost a year ago. However, between taking 6 months of no contact and changing up his style to a more violent one, I believe Gaethje finds a late finish of Fiziev. Fiziev might lead the dance for the first two rounds, but I expect his gas tank to take its toll in Round 3 given the short-notice fight and for Gaethje to take full advantage of that. (Pick: Gaethje)

Picks: 2-1 Gaethje

Pereira vs. Ankalaev Predictions

Alex Pereira during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Drew: What Pereira has managed to accomplish in just a few years with the UFC is nothing short of incredible, but he still hasn't faced a fighter with Ankalaev's wrestling ability. Utilizing that game plan will obviously require Ankalaev to close the distance and not get clipped by a fight-ending left hook in the process, and while I won't be at all surprised to see Pereira get the win here we just haven't had a chance to see how his takedown defense and grappling skills have developed. (Pick: Ankalaev)

Zain: This fight has been a coin flip for me all week, but my comfort in siding with UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira is simply due to activity. Pereira has defended the title three times, whereas Ankalaev's best win since his Dec. 2022 title shot came in a rematch against Johnny Walker last January. Walker is no slouch but is susceptible to knockout losses, as 67 percent of them have come via this fashion. Ankalaev will want to get Pereira to the floor and keep him there, but if he can't, Pereira may lay claim to MMA's pound-for-pound title by night's end. A win would extend his streak to six since moving up to light heavyweight in July 2023, making his case for one of the best resumes the sport has seen in quite some time. (Pick: Pereira)

Chris: I’ve watched enough Alex Pereira fights to know that if you’re going to stand with him, you’re most likely getting knocked out. Magomed Ankalaev is definitely up there as his most challenging stylistic matchup to date with the threat of the takedowns and his own KO power. But, I think Pereira will find his counters on the takedown entries at some point, taking out Ankalaev with punches. It won’t be easy, though. Pereira’s defense will have to be on point. (Pick: Pereira)

Picks: 2-1 Pereira

Be sure to check back with MMA Knockout on fight night for live results and highlights from all the action at UFC 313.

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