Buy Low, Sell High: Greinke's ugly stats may make for discount ace
There's a name for people who don't make trades during the year, but it's not fit to print on a family-friendly column. A healthy league is one with many trades, and all season long you can come here to get the kind of edge you need to get ahead (majority of advanced stats from the fine folks at
Greinke has been victimized by an inflated HR/FB rate. Right now, 13.5 percent of the fly balls he gives up are flying out of the park, and that's not right. It reminds me of a simpler time, 2008, when fantasy dunces across the nation cut bait with Roy Oswalt and his 5.45 ERA because he had become too "homer prone." Of course, the whole thing was nonsense. His HR/FB rate was hovering around 19 percent. It normalized, and Oswalt delivered Cy Young-caliber numbers the rest of the way (13 wins, 2.44 ERA over his final 20 starts that year). With Greinke, it's not just the HR/FB. He has an opponent BABIP of .360 and a strand rate of 56.9 percent (Milwaukee's staff as a whole is at .292 and 73.1 percent). Sure, some of the wounds are self-inflicted. Greinke is throwing too many hittable pitches up in the zone. But he's also rounding into form a bit after missing the season's first month. No one's going to give him away, but you'll be able to get a discount on a guy who should be Cy Young-caliber from here on in.