Draft or Pass: New England Patriots Wide Receiver Julian Edelman

SI Fantasy's Jaime Eisner and Patriots reporter Devon Clements discuss the slight margin of error that separates a good or poor fantasy season for Julian Edelman.
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It's never too early to start your fantasy football research, and we here at SI Fantasy want to provide you with the best information possible heading into your drafts. Our "Draft or Pass" video series takes a closer look at a fantasy player that will be debated, often leading up to fantasy drafts. Are our hosts targeting this player specifically? Are they avoiding him entirely?

Today's video focuses on New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman.

Draft at current ADP: 67.7 (WR30)

It's kind of crazy that we're looking at the No. 5 overall wide receiver in PPR formats last season, who is currently healthy and unsuspended, and debating whether or not he should go in the top 30 this year. But that's what happens when a receiver loses his future Hall of Fame quarterback in favor of a young, unproven talent.

It feels foolish to throw out any of Edelman's previous stats to prove a point. While there are many ways to project how Jarrett Stidham will perform in 2020, the reality is we have no idea. The hope is that Edelman has a ton of room to regress from the WR1/WR2 territory he's been in and still remain a solid WR3/flex option. He'd likely need an 80/1100/7 season to stay in the WR2 conversation, but only around 13 fantasy points per game to remain in the top 30.

Can he put up 72 catches for 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns if healthy? Absolutely. He can see a regression (relative to his career averages) of 29% in receptions per game and 10.5% in receiving yards per game (plus a small dip in touchdown percentage) and still reach the 13 FPPG mark. The biggest question is, can he stay healthy?

If Edelman plays 16 games, he can be a WR3 even with below-average quarterback play. However, his margin for error is not non-existent unless Stidham has been a diamond in the rough all along. He's a low-end WR3 for me, but closer to WR35 than WR30. 

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