Week 9 NFL DFS Plays: Top Values, Low Ownership Players and Stacks

SI Fantasy analysts Ben Heisler and Michael Fabiano run through their favorite value-priced options for Week 9 in daily fantasy football on DraftKings, as well as players to use in tournaments likely to garner low ownership.

Author:
Ben Heisler and Michael Fabiano
Publish date:
Nov 6, 2020

Every Friday, SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano goes through his favorite DraftKings values in the NFL to help offset the expensive studs. Plus, SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler breaks down several low ownership plays with high upside to help leverage the field along with his favorite low-ownership DFS "game stack" for the week.

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Michael Fabiano's Week 9 Top DFS Values on DraftKings

QB: Derek Carr - Las Vegas ($5,700) at Los Angeles (Chargers)

Carr had a stinker last week at Cleveland, but the weather was very bad which played a role in both offenses' struggles. Overall, when you look at Carr's numbers, he had scored 19+ fantasy points in four of his previous five games coming into that matchup. As for his opponent this week? The Los Angeles Chargers have also allowed 19+ fantasy points to five different quarterbacks including in their last three games and four of their last five. This isn't the same Chargers defense we expected to pressure the quarterback this season, and Carr should be in line for a much better performance.

RB: Justin Jackson - Los Angeles (Chargers) ($5,000) vs Las Vegas

The Chargers seem to have a new feature back in Jackson after he led L.A. in touches and snaps last week. His backfield mate Joshua Kelley lost snaps to Tremaine Pope, which likely indicates more of a heavy workload for Jackson in this game.

He takes on the Raiders who have on average of nearly 150 scrimmage yards per game, and the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs.

WR: Jerry Jeudy - Denver ($5,800) at Atlanta

Jeudy gets a juicy matchup vs the Falcons defense who allow the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They've also allowed five different wide receivers to score 17+ points on out-wide routes.

Keep this in mind as well. Jeudy had a season-high 10 targets last week in their comeback win against the Chargers, and at $4,700, I think he's a great bargain for Week 9.

Additional DraftKings DFS Values

QB: Matt Ryan - $6,400 (DEN @ ATL) | Drew Lock - $5,200 (DEN @ ATL)

RB: D'Andre Swift - $5,000 (DET @ MIN) | DeeJay Dallas - $5,000 (SEA @ BUF)

WR: John Brown - $4,600 (SEA @ BUF) | Hunter Renfrow - $4,100 (LV @ LAC)

TE: Hunter Henry - $4,200 (LAC @ DEN) | Harrison Bryant - $3,200 (LA @ CLE)

D/ST: Buffalo - $3,300 vs NE | Tennessee - $3,000 at CIN

Ben Heisler's Week 9 Low Ownership Plays on DraftKings

QB: Lamar Jackson - Baltimore ($6,900) at Indianapolis

If you're curious to know the last time Lamar Jackson was listed at under $7K on DraftKings, you'd have to go back a FULL CALENDAR YEAR! On November 3rd, 2019, Lamar Jackson was listed at $6,200 in a matchup against the Patriots and went on to defeat New England 37-20 and score just under 29 DK points.

Has this been the fantasy season for Lamar Jackson that DFS players had hoped for? Not quite, but he's still top 10 in QB scoring on DraftKings at 21.5 FPPG with arguably the highest ceiling every week. We've seen the game total move from 45-48 over the course of the week, so expect some scoring. If I can get on-board with a growing total in a dome with Jackson at sub-10% ownership in tournaments, I absolutely will.

RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Kansas City ($6,100) vs Carolina

As I mentioned in the video above, you probably think about the scene from Dodgeball when someone writes up that CEH is a great play against one of the worst run defenses in the league...

The reality, however, is Edwards-Helaire is expected to hold low ownership this weekend even in a dream-spot matchup. He only has 15 carries in the last two weeks for 67 yards, despite the fact that both games were blowout wins vs. the Broncos and Jets. Game script should have dictated that both he and Le'Veon Bell get more opportunities than they did. Instead, the Chiefs orchestrated their offense through the air and blew it wide open. I expect a closer, more back-and-forth game this week, leading me to anticipate more opportunities for CEH, who has still been the goal line back for KC even with the acquisition of Bell.

WR: Randall Cobb - Houston ($4,500) at Jacksonville

With Jacksonville trotting out a new QB and a defense that's given up the third-most fantasy points to QBs in 2020, DeShaun Watson ($7,100) will be a very popular play on Sunday. So too will be his top receivers in Will Fuller ($6,800) and Brandin Cooks ($5,500) as DFS players will look to stack Houston against the Jags defense giving up more than 30 DraftKings points/game to opposing WRs.

While I agree that Houston is a terrific option, I'll look for exposure with Randall Cobb at a discount in both price and ownership instead of Fuller or Cooks.

According to FantasyLabs, Cobb is projected for 0-1% ownership this week; staggering considering he led all Texans receivers in targets in their previous game, and finished with eight catches on 10 targets for 95 yards. There's also rain in the forecast in Jacksonville, potentially opening up more targets in the shorter passing game in the slot where Cobb will typically line up.

Lastly, Cobb has one of the most favorable WR/CB matchups of the week in the slot against Tre Herndon, lining up for a very intriguing low ownership play that also provides salary relief.

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Benny's Sneaky Game Stack for Week 9

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

QB: Lamar Jackson ($6,900) | WR: Marquise Brown ($6,000) | TE: Mark Andrews ($4,800)

RUN IT BACK OPTION: WR: Marcus Johnson ($3,000)

As mentioned above, with the over/under climbing three full points (45-48) since it's opened, I think we have shootout potential on the fast track in Indy.

Lamar presents a high-upside play even in a tough matchup on the road. Factor in a bit of a "squeeky-wheel" factor with Hollywood Brown who Lamar stated publicly this week that he "needs to do a better job of getting (the ball) to him," and a game environment conducive to speed.

Andrews, while TD-dependent through the first half of the year still ranks third amongst TEs in team target share % over the first half of the season. Expect more targets his way as well.

Lastly, Johnson at $3K bare-bones pricing is similar to that of Denzel Mims vs the Chiefs last week at $3,200. Just one big play more than pays off on his pricing, and Johnson over his last two games has 12 targets, seven catches and 147 yards receiving, averaging just over 20 YPC.