NFL DFS Week 13: Quarterbacks Report - Underachieving Mitch Trubisky a Great Value at Home
Week 13 NFL DFS Reports
- QUARTERBACKS
- RUNNING BACKS
- WIDE RECEIVERS
- TIGHT ENDS
Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $7,7000/FD – $9,000)
Wilson has been quiet over his last three starts (308/0, 235/2, and 242/1). The Seahawks played four of their previous six games on the road. Over the first nine weeks of the year, he delivered six impact outings (35.00, 37.30, 39.95, 36.80, 31.35, and 30.00 fantasy points). Wilson only needs five passing touchdowns and 1,004 passing yards over the final five weeks to set career-highs. The Giants ranks sixth in the NFL defending quarterbacks (20.37 FPPG), with only one opponent (PHI – 373/3) scoring over 30.00 fantasy points. New York hasn’t allowed over two touchdowns to any team since Week 1 (PIT – 229/3), but they also faced a string of underwhelming passing offenses in 2020. High floor player with explosive upside, but the Giants’ offense also needs to put up a fight on the scoreboard for Wilson to have follow-through.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,700)
The Patriots were the first defense in the NFL to keep Murray in check (201/0) in 2012. Over the past two games on the road, he gained 485 combined yards with two touchdowns. Last year his best game (325/2) against the Rams came on the road with emptiness at home (191/1). Murray lost his running momentum in his last two starts (5/15 and 5/31). Los Angeles has the second-best defense vs. quarterbacks (17.54 FPPG). They held opponents to fewer than 17.00 fantasy points in six of their previous season matchups. The only quarterback to solve their pass defense was Josh Allen (319/4). A top player at his position this year, but this game is against the grain.
DeShaun Watson, HOU (DK – $7,500/FD – $8,200)
Watson played at an elite level over his past two starts (380/3 and 342/4), which was his second streak of two impact games (384/3 and 361/4). The Texans lost Will Fuller for the season this week due to a six-game suspension, who had already set career-highs in catches (53), receiving yards (879), and touchdowns (8). Watson moved to sixth in quarterback scoring (25.81 FPPG). The Colts have been a top defense against the quarterback position (18.02 FPPG – 3rd). Two teams (DET – 336/3 and GB – 311/3) have solved Indy’s pass defense. With one leg kicked out of Watson’s passing upside and a tough matchup, he looks to be an avoid this week in the daily games.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,900)
Herbert's high flying passing ways gained over 300 yards for the sixth time in 10 starts in Week 12 against the Bills. Even with success in passing yards (316) last week, he finished with only one passing touchdown. The addition of Austin Ekeler back in the Chargers' offense gives Herbert another chain-moving player that will help the overall scoring. His best success came in three contests (30.00, 41.95, and 31.40 fantasy points). Herbert passed over 300 yards in five games at home with 1,680 yards and 12 touchdowns. New England worked their way back to 11th defending quarterbacks (20.89 FPPG). Only two teams (SEA – 327/5 and HOU – 380/3) posted impact games. Herbert will test the Patriots in the deep passing game, and he has the talent to post a winning score.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,500)
The Packers' big lead in Week 12 led to Rodgers pumping the brakes in passing yards (211), which came after delivering four early touchdowns. His completion rate has been over 70.0 percent in each of his past four games. Rodgers has three touchdowns or more in six straight matchups and nine of his 11 games. The Eagles held Russell Wilson to a short output (242/1), which was their third game of success over the last four weeks (9.20 and 10.10 fantasy points allowed in Week 8 and Week 10). Philly has a top tier defense vs. quarterbacks (20.53 – 8th). Before last week, the Eagles struggled in three games (18/279/4, 18/233, and 22/275/2) against Wide receivers, which bodes well for Rodgers’ success.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,300)
Cousins pushed up the quarterback rankings (17th) over his last four games (220/3, 292/2, 314/3, and 307/3), with three of those contests coming at home. His downside comes when the Vikings have a high-level of success on the ground. Cousins averages only 29.1 passes per game while being on pace for a career-high in touchdowns (33). The Jaguars allowed the third-most fantasy points (26.07 FPPG) to the quarterback position with weakness in four matchups (29.15, 30.45, 42.15, and 29.65 fantasy points). Minnesota should regain their success on the ground, which will lead to fewer passes by Cousins and lower fantasy productions.
Taysom Hill, NO (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,700)
Hill pushed his record to 2-0 as the Saints starter, with a good portion of his fantasy value coming in the run game (20/93/2). He’s still looking for his first passing touchdown while losing momentum in his passing production in Week 12 (78/0). New Orleans didn’t need to throw the ball last week, which led to his low passing chances (16) vs. Denver. The Falcons will face Hill for the second time in three weeks while showing improvement defending the quarterback position over the previous four games (CAR – 179/1, DEN – 313/2, NO – 233/0, and LV – 240/0). Over this span, Atlanta picked up 12 sacks. The full season stats from the Falcons’ defense points to a winning day for Hill, but he may be a trap even with a high ranking. His next step is proving his value in passing touchdowns.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,800)
Even with the Titans posting 45 points last week, Tannehill continued on his boring ways in production. Over the past six weeks, he averaged only 206 passing yards with 11 touchdowns while playing four games against the top four defenses (PIT, IND X 2, and CHI) against quarterbacks. From Week 2 to Week 4, Tannehill played well in three contests (251/4, 237/4, and 366/4). Tennessee wants to run the ball, which leads to short passing attempts per game (30.4). Cleveland has been a top team vs. quarterbacks over six (243/0, 168/2, 112/1, 163/1, 235/2, and 235/2) of their previous seven games. The Browns lost a couple of their top cornerbacks, which is a sign that Tannehill finds his passing upside in this matchup. Keep an open mind here.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400)
Fitzpatrick led the Dolphins to their seventh win after working as their backup quarterback over the previous four games. He finished with 257 passing yards and two touchdowns. He unlocked the upside DeVante Parker (8/119) in Week 12. His best game (350/3) came in Week 5. Even with success in the win column, Fitzpatrick will be pushed back to the bench if Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to play on Sunday, which is a possibility. The Bengals had no problem defending the Giants (244/0) and Washington (166/1) over the past two games, which came after three disaster outings (IND – 371/3, CLE – 316/5, and PIT – 33/4) over a four-game stretch. Worth a swing if he does indeed start this week.
Philip Rivers, IND (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,000)
The Colts threw the ball much better over their last three starts (308/1, 288/3, and 295/2), but Rivers only has one game of value (371/3) in 2020. On the year, he averages only 1.45 touchdowns per game. In 2019, he passed for 318 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Houston has risk vs. the run (4.9 yards per rush), with running backs scoring 15 touchdowns. Their pass defense allowed only three scoring over the past four games, but three teams had success in passing yards (304, 365, and 295). A low flying dart that needs the Colts to fall behind by a couple of touchdowns early.
Jared Goff, LAR (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,200)
The Rams went from an upside team over three weeks 9355/1, 302/0, and 376/3) to an offensive bust in one easy week (198/0). On the year, Goff only three passing touchdowns over five starts. Surprisingly, he averages 304 passing yards on the road with 13 touchdowns. Last year Goff played well in both matchups (424/2 and 319/3) against the Cardinals. Arizona drifted back to 27th defending quarterbacks despite allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt with 19 passing touchdowns allowed. Tricky option, but his road resume gives his fighter’s chance.
Derek Carr, LV (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,200)
Last week I went to bed with Carr as my starting quarterback for my single entries at DraftKings, and he left me with an empty bankroll and buyers’ remorse. Over the first five games at home, the Falcons allowed over 300 yards passing in each contest (322/4, 316/4, 313/2, 340/1, and 313/3). Unfortunately, the Raiders failed to score a touchdown with only 240 passing yards. Carr struggled in his last three road starts (111/1, 165/2, and 215/0) while playing well against the Chiefs (347/3 and 275/3) and Saints (284/3). The Jets rank 29th vs. quarterbacks (25.64 FPPG), with four teams scoring over 30.0 fantasy points. I’ll leave this dance for you.
Cam Newton, NE (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,500)
The Patriots continue to deliver minimal passing yards. Newton passed for fewer than 175 yards passing in seven of his 10 starts while producing only four passing touchdowns. His only pulse comes on the ground (92/387/9). Newton's only playable game came in Week 2 (39.55 fantasy points). The Chargers fell to 25th defending the quarterback position (23.51 FPPG), with most of their failures coming over the first five weeks (30.50, 37.45, and 32.65 fantasy points). They allow 4.8 yards per rush, which gives Newton some upside in the ground.
Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,800)
Stafford has one touchdown or fewer in five outings over the past seven games with success in two other starts (336/3 and 276/3). He needs Kenny Golladay back to help the upside in the passing game, but it doesn’t look like it will happen this week. In Week 1, Stafford passed for 297 yards and a touchdown vs. the Bears. Chicago served up four touchdowns and 211 passing yards to the Packers, pushing them down a notch to fifth against quarterbacks (18.48 FPPG). Their only disaster showing came in Week 8 (NO – 36.90 fantasy points), but some of the damage came via Taysom Hill playing at other positions. Tough to trust at this point of the season.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,400)
The Falcons controlled the game against the Raiders in Week 12, but Ryan struggled to make plays (185/2 – 4.7 yards per pass attempt) while playing without Julio Jones. Over his previous nine games, Ryan has one touchdown or fewer in six starts. He played well in four games (450/2, 273/4, 371/4, and 284/3) on the year. New Orleans held Ryan to 232 yards and no touchdowns in Week 10 with eight sacks. The Saints jumped inside the top ten against quarterbacks thanks to the Broncos playing the game without an NFL caliber quarterback. New Orleans held quarterbacks to fewer than 15.00 fantasy points over the past four games. Ryan should play better this week, but he needs Julio Jones to play.
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,900)
After riding the pine for seven games, Trubisky turned in a mixed performance (242/3) against the Packers. He had almost the same result in Week 1 vs. the Lions minus a couple of interceptions. Trubisky continues to gain in yards per pass attempt (6.1). Detroit struggled to defend Deshaun Watson (342/4) last week. They allow 7.9 yards per pass attempt with 22 passing touchdowns allowed—underachiever with a plus matchup.
Carson Wentz, PHI (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,300)
Eric Hartline/USA Today Sports
The Eagles lost three straight games with Wentz coming up short each week (208/0, 235/2, and 215/2). Over his last seven starts, his completion rate is only 56.6 percent while gaining 6.1 yards per pass attempt. His hold on the starting job is diminishing. The Packers rose to fourth defending quarterbacks by not allowing over 30.00 fantasy points to any opponent. Possible early hook would push me elsewhere.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $5,300/FD – $7,100)
The winner of Millionaire Maker at DraftKings rostered the combination of Mayfield and Jarvis Landry in Week 12. He finished with 258 yards with a pair of touchdowns, which was his best showing other than Week 7 (297/5). Mayfield passed for fewer than 220 yards in eight matchups with two scores or fewer in 10 games. Tennessee ranks 27th against quarterbacks (23.52 FPPG), with one disaster showing (HOU – 361/4). Both teams in this matchup want to run the ball, and the Browns lack upside at wide receiver after the injury to Odell Beckham. Mayfield is an easy fade, but he may need to throw to put up a competitive fight on the scoreboard.
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