NFL DFS Week 13: Wide Receivers Report - Lightning Strikes Twice for T.Y. Hilton
Week 13 NFL DFS Reports
- QUARTERBACKS
- RUNNING BACKS
- WIDE RECEIVERS
- TIGHT ENDS
Davante Adams, GB (DK – $9,000/FD – $9,500)
Adams has been impressive over his previous six starts (51/655/9). He has a touchdown in each contest while averaging 11.5 targets. His floor over this span has been 18.10 fantasy points while delivering four impact games (44.60, 47.60, 30.30, and 36.30 fantasy points). Even with his high level of success, Adams has yet to gain over 70 yards at home (24/216/5 over four games). The Eagles drifted to 15th against wide receivers (141/1,696/8), with only one opponent (CIN – 24/239/2) gaining over 200 yards. Adams has plenty of experience against CB Darius Slay, who had a tough time defending DK Metcalf in Week 12. His scoring upside will be limited, but Adams should still offer a stat line close to 7/100/1).
DK Metcalf, SEA (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,500)
After two down games (2/28 and 3/46/1), Metcalf carried the Seahawks passing attack against Philly. He caught 10 of his 13 targets for 177 yards. Over five starts at home, Metcalf scored seven of his nine touchdowns while averaging 25.24 FPPG. His one impact game (40.10 fantasy points) came against the 49ers. The Giants are league average vs. wide receivers (148/1,781/10), with three teams (DAL – 18/242, PHI – 15/216/1, and WAS – 14/259/1) gaining over 200 yards. Three wide receivers (CeeDee Lamb – 8/124, Terry McLaurin – 7/115/1, and Cam Sims – 3/110) delivered over 100 yards. CB James Bradberry played well this season, with receivers gaining short yards per catch and some damage in touchdowns. The tide in Week 13 looks more in favor of Tyler Lockett, while Metcalf still has a high floor with scoring upside.
Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,100)
The Bills kept Allen to a manageable game (4/40/1) even with 10 targets, which came after an explosive outing (16/145/1). He improved his scoring run to five weeks while owning a great resume at home (55/601/3) over his past four starts (13/132/1, 10/125, 9/103/1, and 16/145/1). New England plays much better against wide receivers (126/1,755/14 – 13th) with CB Stephon Gilmore back in the starting lineup. Three wide receivers (Tim Patrick – 4/101, Brandon Aiyuk – 6/115, and Breshad Perriman – 5/101/2) gained over 100 yards, and only one player (Tyler Lockett – 7/67/1) has over six catches. The Patriots will game plan for Allen, but he won't see Gilmore on a high number of plays. I love his home resume, and Justin Herbert will get Allen his chances. Not ideal for his higher salary at DraftKings.
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,000)
Hopkins had a slam dunk draft feel over his first seven games (57/704/3) while delivering four high-level showings (14/151, 10/137, 6/131/1, and 10/103/1). He failed to live up to expectations in three of his past four starts (3/30, 7/127/1, 5/51, and 5/55) with a downtick in targets (7.5 – 10.4 over his first seven weeks). The Rams have the second-best defense against wide receivers (137/1,499/6). Los Angeles used CB Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage over the last three weeks, leading to minimal output by DK Metcalf and Mike Evans. Two wide receivers (Cole Beasley – 6/100 and Deebo Samuel – 11/133) gained over 100 yards. Against the grain while expecting Hopkins to be a low percentage own.
A.J. Brown, TEN (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,200)
Brown hasn't reached explosive status due to his lack of opportunity (7.2) compared to the top receivers in the game, but his foundation in scoring (eight touchdowns in nine contests) paints a difference-maker player. Brown's success over his last eight starts would come to 70 catches for 1,198 yards and 16 touchdowns if he played 16 games. His top showing (6/153/1) came in Week 7 vs. the Steelers. The Browns are 21st defending wide receivers (153/1,870/12). The Bengals (25/308/2) and Cowboys (26/319/3) beat Cleveland for impact games, with Marquise Brown (5/101), Amari Cooper – 12/34/1), and Tyler Boyd – 11/101/1) playing well. CB Terrance Mitchell will have his hands full in this matchup. Tennessee should throw the ball well this week, and Brown has the talent to post a sensational game.
Tyler Lockett, SEA (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,900)
Since his dominating performance in Week 7 (15/200/3), Lockett posted only one playable game (9/67/1) in the season-long games over his next five contests. Over the last eight weeks, his output has been dull in five games (2/39, 4/40, 4/33, 4/40, and 3/23). Lockett started the season with 24 catches for 259 yards and four touchdowns over his first three matchups. CB Darnay Holmes has yet to allow a touchdown this year, but receivers have a high catch rate against him with short yards per catch. Lockett should have his way against the Giants, but his targets can't be impactful without New York putting up some fight on the scoreboard.
Adam Thielen, MIN (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,800)
After an impact game (8/123/2) against the Cowboys, Thielen landed on the Covid-19 list for Week 12. He has four touchdowns over the previous two games and 11 scores in 10 starts. His other three games (6/110/2, 8/114/1, and 9/80/2) of value came over the first five weeks of the season. Thielen was cleared to play this week on Thursday. Jacksonville struggled vs. the wide receiver position (151/2,046/12 – 25th) in four (20/284/2, 13/213/1, 11/204/2, and 12/215/2) of their previous five games. The Jaguars have injuries at cornerback, which gives Thielen a winnable opportunity if the Vikings don't run over Jacksonville on the ground.
Calvin Ridley, ATL (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,400)
Ridley played well in the first half against the Raiders, but no pulse by Las Vegas on either side of the ball led to no follow-through in their passing game. He finished with six catches for 50 yards and a touchdown, which was his fifth straight outing (6/61/1, 5/69/1, 3/42, and 5/90) without an impact game. His best value came over the first five weeks (9/130/2, 7/109/2, 5/110, and 8/136). The Saints held him to 14.00 fantasy points in Week 11. New Orleans had a free game for their pass defense vs. the Broncos, helping them to 11th defending wide receivers (126/1,718/12). Their most risk came in two matchups (CAR – 17/219/2 and CHI – 22/239/2). CB Marshon Lattimore played better in three of his past four games, but he's allowed too many touchdowns. I don't expect Julio Jones to play, which is a win for Ridley in this matchup.
Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,200)
After showing a spark in Week 11 (9/104) against the Falcons, New Orleans didn't need to pass to beat the Broncos. He caught four of his six passes for 50 yards in Denver. Over five games of action, Thomas only has 23 catches for 249 yards, which was about two days of work in 2020. Atlanta allows the second-most fantasy points (43.63 – 161/2,309/10) to wide receivers, with nine different teams gaining over 200 yards. Eight wide receivers (CeeDee Lamb – 6/100, Amari Cooper – 6/100, Allen Robinson – 10/123/1, Robby Anderson – 8/112, Justin Jefferson – 9/166/2, Kenny Golladay – 6/114, Jerry Jeudy – 7/125/1, and Michael Thomas – 9/104) gained over 100 yards against the Falcons. At some point, his ticket will come in, but the trust of Taysom Hill being a high-volume passer is waning.
Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,700)
Jefferson stepped into the WR1 role for the Vikings in Week 12, which led to the sixth-highest scoring day (7/70/2) for wide receivers. His success pushed him to the 13th ranking (16.53 FPPG) at his position. Over his last three games, he has 18 catches for 291 yards and three touchdowns on 28 targets. Jefferson has two impact weeks (7/175/1 and 9/166/2), with his best play coming at home (31/587/6 – 21.95 fantasy points). CB Tre Herndon allows a high catch rate, big plays, and touchdowns. He is a must-start in the season-long games, and his matchup invites upside if the Vikings need to throw to win against the Jaguars.
Allen Robinson, CHI (DK – $6,700/FD – $6,900)
The switch to Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback for the Bears led to Robinson having his second-best day (8/74/2) of the year. He has a floor of six catches over his last four starts. Robinson has three other games (28.30, 23.10, and 20.70 fantasy points) of value. In Week 1, the Lions held him to five catches for 74 yards. Detroit has massive issues defending wide receivers (22/254, 22/243/1, and 13/273/2), pushing them to 26th (161/2,146/10). Four wide receivers (DeAndre Hopkins – 101/137, Keelan Cole – 6/143, DJ Moore – 7/127, and Will Fuller – 6/171/2) gained over 100 yards. CB Amani Oruwariye allows a low catch rate, but he can be beaten in the deep passing game.
DeVante Parker, MIA (DK – $6,400/FD – $6,800)
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Parker regained a bounce in his step over his last two starts (6/61/1 and 8/119), which came after five dull games (2/50/1, 3/35, 1/3/1, 6/64, and 2/31). His only other week of success came in Week 4 (10/110). Parker has a much higher floor with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at quarterback. Cincinnati played better vs. wide receiver over their last two games (11/124/1 and 12/111) after getting drilled by the Steelers' wide receivers (21/283/4). The Bengals rank 19th vs. the wide receiver position (146/1,869/14). CB William Jackson locked up Darius Slayton (no catches) in Week 12, which came after showing risk over the previous three weeks. In 2019, Parker had a big day against Cinci (5/111/1). Only in play if Fitzpatrick starts.
Jarvis Landry, CLE (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,000)
The dust came off of Landry's stat sheet last week. He scored his first touchdown of the year while setting season highs in catches (8) and receiving yards (143). Over his other 10 starts, he had fewer than 60 yards in eight contests. Landry is now on pace for 67 catches for 893 yards and two touchdowns, which would be the lowest output of his seven-year career. Last season he had four catches for 67 yards against the Titans. Tennessee played better against wide receivers over the past two weeks (9/70 and 8/133/1), which came after a midseason swoon (26/240/1, 20/236/3, 21/175/2, 21/229/1, and 23/233). They inched up to 27th in wide receiver defense (182/2,057/11). I expect the Titans to score at will in this matchup, which helps the passing game and Landry in Week 13.
Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $6,100/FD – $6,600)
Kupp went from stud to dud in one easy week. He beat the Bucs for 11 catches for 145 yards, followed up by only two catches for 41 yards vs. the 49ers. His scoreless streak now sits at seven games, with his best value coming in two other weeks (9/107/1 and 11/110). Kupp scored 21 touches over his first 39 games in the NFL (two in 11 contests in 2020). He averages six catches per game, which sets a reasonable floor if Jared Goff can unlock his scoring upside. In 2019, Kupp had 13 catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Cardinals. Arizona played well vs. wide receivers (166/1,901/11 – 21st) in all but two games (SEA – 20/277/3 and BUF – 28/276/2). CB Byron Murphy will give up catches for short yards with better success in the red zone. I sense a big game, but his CB/WR matchup isn't ideal.
Robert Woods, LAR (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,100)
The Rams looked Woods way 27 times over their previous two games, leading to one impact game (12/130/1) and a steady showing (7/88). He scored five touchdowns over the past seven weeks, but Woods gained over 100 yards in two other matchups (6/119 and 5/104/1). His best output in catches (13) and yards (172) came in Arizona in 2019 with some success in his game at home (7/67/1). CB Patrick Peterson allows a high catch rate with damage in touchdowns and big plays. I expect him to be active in this game while priced to deliver a winning score at DraftKings.
Marvin Jones, DET (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,000)
Jones had a season-high 12 targets in Week 12, but he only caught half of his chances for 48 yards. Over the previous six games, Jones has 29 catches for 357 yards and four touchdowns, with his best success coming in Week 10 (8/96/1). Kenny Golladay won't play this week, giving him another WR1 opportunity. The Bears held him to four catches for 55 yards in Week 1. Chicago leads the NFL in wide receiver defense (126/1,638/8), with three players (Calvin Ridley – 5/110, A.J. Brown – 4/101/1, and Justin Jefferson – 8/135) gaining over 100 yards. CB Kyle Fuller graded well in coverage, which points to fading Jones in this matchup.
Brandin Cooks, HOU (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,500)
With the Texans losing Will Fuller for the remainder of the season, Cook should see an uptick in chances. Over his previous seven games, he caught 42 passes for 581 yards and three touchdowns with one impact game (8/161/1). Cook is now on pace for 76 catches with 1,046 yards and five touchdowns, which came after a slow start over the first four weeks (10/138). The Colts have the sixth-best defense against wide receivers (123/1,743/10). Indy allowed over 100 yards to four wide receivers (Allen Robinson – 7/101/1, Marvin Hall – 4/113, Tee Higgins – 6/125, and Davante Adams – 7/106/1). Houston will look to get Cooks matched up with CB Rock Ya-Sin on as many plays as possible. Volume should be his friend, and the Colts rarely shadow or move their cornerbacks around.
Jakobi Meyers, NE (DK – $5,500/FD – $5,900)
Meyers remains the Patriots' top receiving option over the last six games (35/436), but he's still looking for his first touchdown. His best week came in Week 9 (12/169). His play and targets have come up short over the past three games (5/59, 3/38, and 5/52). The Chargers rank fourth in wide receiver defense (123/1,678/10). Mike Evans (7/122/1) and Emmanuel Sanders (12/122) posted the top two games vs. Los Angeles. CB Chris Harris returned to the starting lineup last week after missing seven games. One trick pony in the Patriots' passing game with a below-par matchup.
Sterling Shepard, NYG (DK – $5,300/FD – $5,600)
Shepard turned in a limited practice with toe and shoulder issues. He has six catches or more in each of his past five games while averaging eight targets per week. Shepard picked up 33 catches for 283 yards over this span, but he gained only 8.6 yards per rush. Seattle had their best showing vs. wide receivers in Week 12 (9/46) with improvement in their previous two matchups (19/192 and 14/118/2), but they still last defending wide receivers (218/2,592/15). The Seahawks allowed eight catches or more to 16 wide receivers, with nine players gaining over 100 yards. CB Shaquill Griffin will allow touchdowns with receivers having a high catch rate. If Daniel Jones doesn't play, I don't see a significant drop off in an already low ranking passing game. His matchup gives him a chance at his best game of the year.
Christian Kirk, ARI (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,800)
The Cardinals lost momentum in the passing game over their last three games (245/0, 197/2, and 170/0), which pulled the plug on Kirk's fantasy value. Over this span, he had three short weeks (4/27, 4/50, and 3/19). Kirk played well from Week 6 to Week 9 (2/86/2, 5/37/2, and 5/123/1). CB Troy Hill will give up catches, but they gain short yards per catch with one touchdown allowed. Boom or bust player with limited upside in this matchup.
Corey Davis, TEN (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,100)
The tough schedule for the Titans' passing game led to Davis only receiving 19 targets over his last four games. The Bears shut him out in Week 9, followed up by three steady showings (5/67, 5/113, and 3/70) for the season-long games. His best value came in Week 1 (7/101) and Week 8 (8/128/1). CB Kevin Johnson moved into the starting lineup last week after an injury to CB Denzel Ward. Worth a flier as both of the Titans' top receivers may come in this week.
Jamison Crowder, NYJ (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,200)
The wind in Crowder's sail has been lost at sea over his last three games (2/26/1, 1/16, and 3/31) while receiving only 11 combined targets. Over 11 weeks of action, he missed four games with three impact games (7/115/1, 7/104, and 8/116/1). Sam Darnold hasn't thrown a touchdown in his last four starts. Las Vegas ranks 20th vs. wide receivers (148/1,893/12). Four teams (TB – 19/238/3, LAC – 16/243/1, DEN – 16/212/1, and KC – 21/179/1) gained over their last six games. The Raiders struggled in three contests against slot wide receivers (Scott Miller – 6/109/1, Keenan Allen – 9/103/1, and Tyreek Hill – 11/102/1). Only a gamble while needing better quarterback play.
Michael Pittman, IND (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,600)
The Colts tried to get Pittman the ball last week (nine targets), but he managed only two catches for 28 yards. His stock rose over his previous two contests (7/101 and 3/66/1). Pittman led Indy in snaps over the past three weeks. Houston moved up to 22nd in wide receiver defense (151/1,832/15) after playing well in two of their previous three games (8/93 and 13/123/1). The Texans gave up over 100 yards to four players (Adam Thielen – 8/114/1, Justin Jefferson – 4/103, Davante Adams – 13/196/2, D.J. Chark – 7/146/1, and Damiere Byrd – 6/132/1). Houston lost their top cornerback this week, which naturally gives Pittman a favorable matchup. Not ready to trust his opportunity, but he has the size to add scoring ability.
Mike Williams, LAC (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,800)
The Dolphins and Bills held Williams to two short games (2/28 and 3/26) in his last two road starts. He played well on four (5/109/2, 5/99/1, 5/81, and 4/72/1) of his previous six contests. On the year, Williams averages only 5.7 targets. New England should use CB Stephon Gilmore on him most plays, which points to low impact showing.
Tyler Boyd, CIN (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,600)
The downgrade from Joe Burrow at quarterback led to Boyd being a hole in fantasy rosters in Week 12 (3/15). Over the previous four games, Boyd has a floor of six catches, leading to 32 catches for 303 yards and two touchdowns. His best success came in Week 3 (10/125) and Week 7 (11/101/1). Miami is just below league average in wide receiver defense (146/2,027/8) after playing well over the past three games (9/101, 12/191, and 12/184). His CB/WR matchup looks neutral, but the Bengals have a lot to prove at quarterback.
Tee Higgins, CIN (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,400)
Higgins held form in Week 12 (5/44/1) when adding in weaker play at quarterback. He finished with only five targets, which matched his lowest opportunity of the season since Week 1. Higgins caught 45 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns over his previous nine games, with four productive weeks (5/40/2, 6/125, 5/71/1, and 7/115/1). CB Xavien Howard is a top player in coverage. Only a gamble with minimal chance of an explosive game.
Darius Slayton, NYG (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,700)
Slayton was held scoreless in Week 12 while receiving only two targets. He came out of the game with foot and shoulder issues. Slayton has more misses than hits over 10 weeks of action this season. He shined in Week 1 (6/102/2) while also playing well in Week 5 (8/129). Over his other eight matchups, Slayton had three catches or fewer in six weeks. He showed an uptick in Week 10 (5/93). CB Tre Flowers likes to keep wide receivers in front of him with minimal damage in touchdowns. Right kind of upside swing when matching his salary and top performances, but his health and quarterback play is a concern.
T.Y. Hilton, IND (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,600)
There was a Hilton sighting for fantasy owners last week. He finished with four catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. The Colts gave him only five targets, the seventh time in his 10 starts with five chances or less. Hilton doesn't have another touchdown while gaining fewer than 60 yards in eight different contests. Last he played well in one game (6/74/1) against Houston, plus some of his best success in his career came against the Texans. CB Vernon Hargreaves has risk in catches, big plays, and touchdowns, giving Hilton a chance to build an uptick in production. Possible trap if he doesn't get a bump in targets, but the matchup has me optimistic.
MORE FROM SI FANTASY: Week 13 DFS Hub
