NFL DFS Week 14: Quarterbacks Report - Betting on a Justin Herbert Bounce-Back
Week 14 NFL DFS Reports
- QUARTERBACKS
- RUNNING BACKS
- WIDE RECEIVERS
- TIGHT ENDS
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,900)
Mahomes took over the top spot in scoring at quarterback even with a quiet performance in Week 13 (344/1). He extended his streak with over 300 yards passing to five games, highlighted by his run from Week 8 to Week 12 (1,648 combined yards with 14 touchdowns or 33.73 fantasy points). Mahomes is on pace for 5,408 combined yards with 44 touchdowns and only 2.7 interceptions. He scored over 30.00 fantasy points in half of his 12 starts. Miami climbed to 8th quarterback defense (20.13 FPPG), with failure in two games (BUF – 38.65 and ARI – 41.75 fantasy points). In eight of their 12 matchups, the Dolphins gave up one passing touchdown or fewer. Mahomes will have success, but his final stats will short the top quarterback plays of the week.
Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $7,900/FD – $9,000)
Wilson has been bleeding away his early success over his past four starts (15.40, 22.05, 16.70, and 19.65 fantasy points), which came after a floor of 27.65 fantasy points over his first eight games. Over his downturn, he averaged 235 passing yards with one touchdown. When at his best in 2020, Wilson delivered six games over 30.00 fantasy points. The Jets rank 30th in fantasy points allowed (26.23 FPPG) to quarterbacks. New York gives up 7.9 yards per pass attempt with disaster in coverage in three (446/5, 366/3, and 381/4) of their previous four games. An excellent matchup, and I expect Seattle to find their pass wings in Week 14.
Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,000)
Watson threw the ball well in Week 14 (341 yards) without his top wide receiver (Will Fuller), but he failed to deliver a passing touchdown for the first time all year. Over his previous six weeks, Watson ran the ball well (46/222/2). His best play came in four games (30.45, 35.35, 34.80, and 36.30 fantasy points) while passing for over 300 yards in seven matchups. Chicago dipped to ninth defending quarterbacks (20.30 FPPG). The Bears gave fewer than 21.00 fantasy points in seven of their 12 games, with struggles in one matchup (NO – 36.90 fantasy points). Not playing with a full arsenal in the passing game, and his matchup rates poorly.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $7,500/FD – $9,100)
The Rodgers to Davante Adams combination has been impressive over the past seven weeks (61/776/11). Over this stretch, he averaged 295 passing yards with 24 touchdowns and two interceptions. His floor has been 26.75 fantasy points in three-quarters of his starts, with a ceiling of 34.40 fantasy points. The Lions held him to 240 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2 due to Adams leaving the game earlier with just over 50 percent of the playing time. Detroit ranks at the bottom of the league, defending running backs while sitting 24th vs. quarterbacks (23.22 FPPG). The Packers will have their way with either Aaron Jones or Adams in this game. The goal-line calls will determine the playability of Rodgers at DraftKings.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,100)
Murray's fun ride on the ground ended over his previous three games (5/15, 5/31, and 5/15) while underachieving in passing yards in his past two starts (170/0 and 173/3). His play was exceptional in seven of his first nine matchups (29.60 fantasy points or more). He scored 10 touchdowns on the ground over his best games with 604 yards. The Giants pushed their way to sixth against the quarterback position (19.40 FPPG) after holding the Eagles (208/0), Cincinnati (136/1), and Seattle (263/1) to short games. The only team with over two passing touchdowns vs. New York came in Week 1 (PIT – 229/1). An improving defense facing a fading quarterback creates doubt, but Murray's legs are the wild card here.
Tom Brady, TB (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,800)
The Bucs didn't play well against the Chiefs, but Brady bailed out with a respectable game (345/3). He hits seventh in quarterback scoring (23.68 FPPG), with three impact showings (37.45, 40.55, and 35.25 FPPG). Brady is on pace for 4,400 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. His yards per pass attempt (7.0) remains below his expected value when considering his wide receiver talent. The Vikings are just below league average against quarterbacks (21.91 FPPG) while showing improvement over the previous four games (CHI – 124/0, DAL – 203/3, CAR – 267/1, and JAC – 280/1). A trip on the road should favor Brady in this matchup, and he should play well coming off the bye week.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,300)
The Patriots' defense solved the fast rise of Herbert in Week 13 (209/0), despite attempting a season-high 53 passes. Over the previous month, he played four straight games against the AFC East, leading to 5.8 yards per pass attempt with regression in his completion rate (61.3). Over his first five home starts, Herbert passed for 1,680 yards with 12 touchdowns. The Falcons remain last in the league in quarterback defense (27.92 FPPG), with most of the damage coming over the first eight weeks (35.00, 45.30, 34.30, 32.85, 30.15, 33.35 fantasy points). I expect the Chargers to play at a high-level offensively in Week 14, and Herbert will challenge Atlanta in the deep passing game.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,900)
Game flow worked perfectly for Tannehill to post the top quarterback score at DraftKings, but he fell one touchdown short due to A.J. Brown fumbling as he was about to score. He ended his streak with two touchdowns or fewer at six games. Tannehill ranks eighth in quarterback scoring (23.50 FPPG) with three contests with over 30.00 fantasy points. He played well in Week 2 in his matchup against the Jaguars (29.15 fantasy points). Jacksonville allows the fourth-most fantasy points (25.68 FPPG) to quarterbacks, with struggles in four games (251/4, 384/3, 415/4, and 317/3). The Titans should score four touchdowns in this game, but Derrick Henry may steal Tannehill's scoring upside.
Taysom Hill, NO (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,700)
The Saints have been blessed with excellent quarterback play (8-0) over the past two seasons while Drew Brees has been injured. Hill ran the ball well in all three of his starts (34/176/4) while showing a rise in his passing value against the Falcons (232/2). His completion rate (71.1) grades well. The Eagles have the 12th best defense vs. quarterbacks (20.73 FPPG). Philly has struggled with quarterbacks on the ground (60/331/2). Two teams passed for over 300 yards, and three opponents delivered three passing touchdowns. Not ideal despite having a high floor so far as a starter.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,500)
Over three straight home starts, Cousins posted playable games (314/3, 307/3, and 305/3). His play has been exceptional over his last six matchups at home (1789/18), pushing him to 11th in quarterback scoring (21.55 FPPG). On the flip side, Cousins has been a different player on the road (215 passing yards with six combined touchdowns and five interceptions). The Bucs fell on their face defending quarterbacks in their last three home games (NO – 331/4, LAR – 376/3, and KC – 462/3). They slipped to 20th in quarterback defense (22.54 FPPG). Tampa tends to give up short yards per rush, which will force Cousins to the air in this game. Minnesota should chase on the scoreboard. Trending forward, but he appears to be against the grain in this matchup.
Derek Carr, LV (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100)
Carr stole my money in the daily games in Week 12, followed by the top showing of the week (386/4). His play continues to be up and down. He passed for over 300 yards in three different contests with three touchdowns in four games. Carr played well in both of his matchups (347/3 and 275/3) against the Chiefs. Indianapolis has the fourth-best defense against quarterbacks (18.86 FPPG), with regression over the last three weeks (311/3, 221/2, and 379/1). Easy fade for me.
Philip Rivers, IND (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,000)
The Colts threw the ball much better over the past four games (308/1, 288/3, 295/2, and 285/2) while averaging 38.9 passes over his last seven starts. His only game of value came in Week 6 (371/3). Over the previous two weeks, he discovered T.Y Hilton (4/81/1 and 8/110/1). The Raiders slipped to 23rd vs. the quarterback position (23.06 FPPG). Only one quarterback (Tom Brady – 369/4) has more than two passing touchdowns. Indy should score on the ground in this matchup, which makes Rivers only a boring option.
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,000)
Eleven games into the 2020 season, Bridgewater still doesn't have a game with more than two passing touchdowns. His best two weeks (30.00 and 31.40 fantasy points) were helped by added value in the run game (2/32/1 and 2/191/1). Two of his starting wide receivers were put on the Covid list this week, but they should be cleared to play on Sunday. Christian McCaffrey also has a chance to play this week. Denver moved to 14th in quarterback defense (21.41 FPPG) thanks to no team scoring over 27.00 fantasy points. Only a game manager, but he does have the receiving talent to have upside success if forced to throw.
Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,200)
Detroit threw the ball better in their last two games (295/1 and 402/3), despite playing without his top wide receiver and pass-catching running back. His other three contests (206/3, 336/3, and 276/3) with three touchdowns all came at home. In Week 2, he passed for 244 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. Green Bay sits seventh against quarterbacks (19.88 FPPG). Only one team (HOU – 309/2) passed for over 300 yards, and three opponents have three touchdowns vs. the Packers. If Kenny Golladay and DeAndre Swift play, Stafford may surprise.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,300)
The Falcons' offense has been on the slide over the past three weeks, leading to Ryan posting three short scores (9.60, 16.75, and 16.65 fantasy points). He slipped to 14th in quarterback scoring (20.78 FPPG), with one touchdown or fewer in seven contests. Ryan scored over 30.00 fantasy points in two games (273/4 and 371/4). The Chargers play well vs. wide receivers (third), but they rank poorly in quarterback defense (23.79 – 26th). At best, 250 yards with a pair of touchdowns.
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800)
The Bears have lost six straight games, pushing them outside the playoff hunt. After a shaky performance in Week 12 (242/3 with two interceptions), Trubisky looked better vs. the Lions (267/1) with strength in his completion rate (76.5). Houston allowed over 20.00 fantasy points in nine games with disaster in two matchups (34.30 and 30.15 fantasy points). The Texans have risk vs. running backs, and they allow 7.8 yards per attempt. Trubisky is worth a dart for someone looking for a lower percentage own.
Andy Dalton, DAL (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,800)
Over his last three starts, Dalton has had success in his completion rate (67.8), but he gained only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. His top game (22.65 fantasy points) came in Week 11. The Bengals are league average defending (21.65 FPPG) even with success over their past three matchups (WAS – 166/1, NYG – 244/0, and MIA – 296/1). Cinci has the most issues vs. Cleveland (316/5) and Pittsburgh (333/4). A possible win for Dallas, but I expect a balanced attack for their offense.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,600)
In his fourth start for the Dolphins, Tagovailoa set a career-high in passing yards (296). He still hasn't thrown an interception in his 136 pass attempts with seven touchdowns in what amounts to about four full games. Kansas City ranks 11th against the quarterback position (20.66 FPPG), despite showing regression over the last month in three contests (CAR – 357/3, LV – 275/3, and 345/3). The Dolphins will have to pass to win, which gives Tagovailoa a fighter's chance to have his first playable game in the daily space.
MORE DFS: Week 14 DFS Hub
