Every week, SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano runs through his favorite DraftKings values in the NFL to help offset the expensive studs. Additionally, SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler discusses several low ownership plays with high upside to help leverage the field; along with his favorite low-ownership DFS "game stack" for the week.
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Michael Fabiano's Week 17 Top DFS Values on DraftKings
QB: Philip Rivers - Indianapolis ($6,000) vs Jacksonville
His numbers have not been great over the last month or so, despite a solid floor but the Colts need this game if they are going to make the playoffs. Their end of the season Christmas gift comes in a bow from the tanking Jacksonville Jaguars who have officially, "Tanked for Trevor Lawrence."
Jacksonville have allowed 33 TD passes, and the third most fantasy points to QBs in 2020. For a QB priced as the 13th highest option on DraftKings, he should and will exceed value in the final week of the regular season.
RB: Ty Johnson - New York (Jets) ($4,300) at New England
Johnson will be in a featured role to wrap up the season on the road against the Patriots. LaMichael Perine has been placed on the COVID-19 list and Frank Gore is out with a lung contusion.
Johnson should see a ton of volume who have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to RBs and 10 total touchdowns to the position since Week 9.
TE: Tee Higgins - Cincinnati ($5,000) vs Baltimore
Last week, Higgins saw nine targets, six catches and over 21 fantasy points. He's seen eight or more targets in three of his last four games, leading all Bengals pass catchers.
Baltimore is dealing with all sorts of injuries in the secondary. Both Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters are both banged up, and they've also allowed five different outside wide receivers to score 13 fantasy points against them since Week 11. Additionally, three of those five have scored 16+ fantasy points. I think Higgins can definitely exploit a beat up Ravens secondary to close out the season.
Additional DraftKings DFS Values - Week 17
QB: Kirk Cousins - $6,000 (MIN @ DET) | Derek Carr - $5,700 (LV @ DEN)
RB: Darrel Williams - $4,800 (LAC @ KC) | Malcolm Brown - $4,300 (ARI @ LAR)
WR: Marvin Jones - $5,100 (MIN @ DET) | Richie James - $3,100 (SEA @ SF)
TE: Irv Smith - $3,900 (MIN @ DET) | Evan Engram - $3,700 (DAL @ NYG) | Hayden Hurst - $3,700 (ATL @ TB)
D/ST: New Orleans - $3,400 @ CAR | Arizona - $2,800 at LAR | Minnesota - $2,600 at DET
Ben Heisler's Week 17 Low Ownership Plays on DraftKings
QB: Deshaun Watson - Houston ($7,700) vs Tennessee
Outside of Lamar Jackson, I'm convinced Watson has the second highest ceiling of the entire Week 17 slate when the Texans host the Titans.
The total has moved to 56.5 points, the highest over/under of the week and while the Titans have a playoff spot on the line, regardless of whether it's a Derrick Henry or Titans WR smash spot, the game script favors Houston to consistently be on the attack playing catch-up. Watson has held less than 8% ownership in his previous four games on the main slate, and is averaging 28.28 DK points in his last six starts.
Reports are that Watson will play, but the injury concern with his throwing hand, especially in a meaningless game could potentially scare away ownership despite a terrific matchup.
SIDE NOTE: I won't talk anyone out of at least considering Rams QB John Wolford at $4,900 vs the Cardinals for his rushing upside.
RB: Melvin Gordon - Denver ($5,700) vs Las Vegas
After a rough start to the season, Gordon has made an outstanding push in the final quarter of the season without much fanfare. Via FantasyLabs, Gordon has rushed for 339 yards on 55 carries (6.16 YPC) over the last four games, including two touchdowns on nine red zone rushing attempts.
He'll face a Vegas defense allowing 4.7 YPC and 20 TDs to RBs this season and is priced as an exceptional value considering his recent workload.
WR: T.Y. Hilton - Indianapolis ($5,800) vs Jacksonville
I went back and forth between Hilton and D.J. Moore for this write-up. Heck, you can absolutely play both in highly opportunistic matchups, but I'll also stroll a little bit down "Narrative Street" for Hilton as part of the process, as well as likely lower ownership over the slightly less expensive Moore ($5,700).
The Colts are currently fighting for their playoff lives, but can still win the division with a win over Jacksonville and a Titans loss to Houston. In order to simply make the postseason, they will need to beat the Jaguars and have either the Ravens, Browns or Dolphins lose in the process.
Both Hilton along with QB Philip Rivers could be playing their final game in Indianapolis, and Hilton has advocated for his return, but also for Rivers to come back as well. Up until Week 16, Hilton had 21 catches for 348 yards and four touchdowns with Rivers under center, so naturally it would makes sense for him to advocate to run it back in 2021.
Via Shawn Childs' Week 17 DFS Report, the Jags rank 24th vs WRs with six different teams scoring 40+ fantasy points this season. Rivers and Hilton can make a statement together and it can also be used as a leverage play off a very chalk Jonathan Taylor.
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Benny's Sneaky Leverage Stack for Week 17
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
QB: Drew Lock ($5,000) WR: Jerry Jeudy ($4,200) | TE: Noah Fant ($4,400)
RUN-IT-BACK OPTION: TE: Darren Waller ($7,100)
There are great salary saving options in play with a high total with both teams having only pride to play for.
Lock is dirt-cheap facing a Raiders defense that ranks 26th vs QBs this season and pairing him with his two top receiving options for roughly the same price combined as Calvin Ridley is enticing. Jeudy and Fant saw a combined 26 targets last week in the Broncos' loss to the Chargers, and that trend should continue against a struggling Vegas defense in Week 17.
As for Waller, he's the highest priced (starting) tight end on the slate and has earned every dollar. He had just five receptions vs. the Dolphins last week, but still finished with over 100 yards receiving for the third time in four weeks and is on the field for almost every snap. In a projected back and forth shootout, I expect Carr to once again target Waller early and often.
Additional Low Ownership / High Upside Targets
QB: Ryan Tannehill ($7,000) TEN @ HOU
QB: John Wolford ($4,900) ARI @ LA
RB: Chris Carson ($6,200) SEA @ SF
RB: Jeff Wilson ($6,000) SEA @ SF
WR: Corey Davis ($6,200) TEN @ HOU
WR: D.J. Moore ($5,700) CAR @ NO
WR: Gabriel Davis ($3,600) CHI @ JAX
TE: Evan Engram ($3,700) DAL @ NYG
TE: Dalton Schultz ($3,000) DAL @ NYG
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