Super Wild Card Weekend NFL DFS Plays: Top Values, Low Ownership Players and Stacks
Every week, SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano runs through his favorite DraftKings values in the NFL to help offset the expensive studs. Additionally, SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler discusses several low ownership plays with high upside to help leverage the field; along with his favorite low-ownership DFS "game stack" for the week.
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Michael Fabiano's Top DFS Values on DraftKings
QB: Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh ($6,100) vs Cleveland
Big Ben got some much needed rest in Week 17 against the Browns in Cleveland, but now the two teams get a chance to play in Pittsburgh for the start of the postseason.
Over his last 24 starts at Heinz Field, Big Ben has averaged 20+ fantasy points. It's also a great matchup with no Olivier Vernon in the lineup for Cleveland and continued injuries in their secondary. At $6,100, Roethlisberger should pay off a non-premium salary with premium results vs a Browns defense that's allowed 24+ points six times this season.
RB: J.K. Dobbins - Baltimore ($6,600) at Tennessee
It's a reasonable price and a great matchup. The Titans have allowed 20 total touchdowns and the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Dobbins was my preseason "Stash and Cash" pick and has played at an extremely high level down the stretch of the fantasy playoffs. Look for his reign to continue against a broken Tennessee defense.
WR: Hollywood Brown - Baltimore ($5,400) at Tennessee
Brown has saved his best play of the season for last. He's scored 13 or more fantasy points in six straight games, and had over 21 fantasy points last week against Cincinnati. His postseason reward? The Titans defense! Tennessee has allowed 22 TDs to opposing wide receivers and are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the total in this game at just under 55 points, so expect plenty of points in a projected shootout, but especially on the Ravens' side.
Additional DraftKings DFS Values - Super Wild Card
QB: Drew Brees - $5,700 (CHI @ NO)
RB: Antonio Gibson - $5,700 (TB @ WSH)
WR: Antonio Brown - $6,100 (TB @ WSH)
TE: Austin Hooper - $3,900 (CLE @ PIT) | Rob Gronkowski - $3,900 (TB @ WSH)
D/ST: Tampa Bay - $3,300 @ WSH
Be sure to check out Fabiano's Wild Card rankings before finalizing any lineup decisions or if your league has special scoring rules, sign up for SI Fantasy+ for customized rankings.
MORE: Wild Card Rankings, Articles, Reports & Tools Hub
Ben Heisler's Wild Card Low Ownership Plays on DraftKings
QB: Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee ($7,700) vs Baltimore
Tannehill's been a popular name on this list in large part to DFS players not wanting to focus on the pass game of an offense predicated by Derrick Henry's success. But even with Henry rushing for over 2,000 yards, Tannehill finished as the No. 7 scoring QB in fantasy this year with 40 combined TDs.
With the highest total on the board, backing Tannehill as a home underdog may be the highest ceiling play of the slate. He's also been a beast at home, throwing for 22 of his 33 TDs at Nissan Stadium with just two interceptions and a QBR of 118.5, compared to 11 TDs, 5 picks, and a rating of 94.4 while on the road.
RB: J.D. McKissic - Washington ($4,900) vs Tampa Bay
I think Washington can hang around in this matchup vs Tampa Bay in the Saturday night prime time game in large part to their pass rush. Via ESPN Stats and Info, Washington is sixth in the NFL in sacks and fourth in sacks per pass attempt and Brady has not handled pressure well, especially in prime time where he's gone 1-3 with 5 TDs and 5 INTs in four games.
But if the Football Team plans to pull off the upset, McKissic will play a large role with his ability to collect bundles of targets from Alex Smith in the short passing game. He has 10+ targets in three of their last five games, and with the Bucs being one of the best run-stuffing teams in the NFL, McKissic can help move the chains with pressure raining on the now very immobile Smith.
The Bucs have allowed the MOST receptions to running backs (101) in the NFL this season, so expect McKissic to play a prominent role in the offense once again.
WR: Allen Robinson - Chicago ($6,600) at New Orleans
It takes a lot for the WR9 in PPR to find himself in the "lower ownership" category for this weekend's slate, but with DFS players racing to stack up on Bills, Ravens, Titans and Saints, it opens up the door for Robinson to be fly under the radar when they head to New Orleans.
The last time the Bears and Saints played during the regular season, Nick Foles was the Bears' starting QB and caught six passes on seven targets for 87 yards and a score. Since Mitchell Trubisky returned, A-Rob has had 13 targets in three of six games, and had no less than 74 receiving yards up until the final week of the season.
Darnell Mooney had a breakout game in Week 17, but if he's not 100%, Chicago will need Robinson more than ever to carry the load. I think Robinson sees 10+ targets easily in this game and may hold a lower ownership number on a six-game slate than the amount of targets he has. Could be a fun prop bet too!
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Benny's Sneaky Leverage Stack for the Super Wild Card Round
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
QB: Ben Roethlisberger ($6,100) WR: Diontae Johnson ($6,200) | WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,500)
RUN-IT-BACK OPTION: TE: Austin Hooper ($3,900)
The Steelers offense is a bit of a "choose your own adventure" vs the Browns team that's allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in road games this year (shout out to Fabiano for that stat). They've also allowed the fourth-most points to opposing tight ends if you want Eric Ebron and his $3,700 salary in the mix as well.
Big Ben and Diontae Johnson were the two clear cut choices for me, considering Johnson has only seen single-digit targets five times all season long, and still found a way to drop 96 yards on three catches vs the Browns in Week 17 without Roethlisberger throwing him the ball. I lean JuJu over Claypool for an opportunistic matchup in the slot vs. M.J. Stewart where Pro Football Focus ranks him with a 25% positive advantage. If you like what you saw from Claypool's 11 targets last week, I wouldn't fault you there either.
Meanwhile, if the Steelers offense has their way with the Browns, we'll be looking at a lot of Baker Mayfield throws to attempt to remain in the game. Enter Hooper, who has seen 26 targets in the past three weeks from Mayfield including five red zone targets and two touchdowns. Hooper has become Mayfield's go-to red zone passing option and rarely leaves the field.
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