2021 PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open - DFS Plays, Bets, and Fades
Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary
- Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed ($10,100)
- The American Express: Si Woo Kim ($8,200)
- Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500)
- Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)
- RSM Classic: Robert Streb ($6,300)
- The Masters: Dustin Johnson ($10,000)
- Vivint Houston Open: Carlos Ortiz ($6,700)
- Bermuda Championship: Brian Gay ($6,300)
- Zozo Championship: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
- CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak ($7,000)
- Shriners Hospitals for Children Open: Martin Laird ($6,400)
- Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia ($8,600)
- Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship: Hudson Swafford ($6,700)
- U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
- Safeway Open: Stewart Cink ($6,300)
BETTING ODDS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...
$9,000+ Range
Ben Heisler: Jon Rahm
DraftKings Price: $11,200
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +625
I already know what most of you are thinking as I prop up the heavy favorite for this week's event in Rahm. It probably looks something like this:
Here's the thing. I've never had as much conviction with Rahm as I do for this tournament at this time, and I picked Rahm to win the BMW Championship last year! I'm convinced he's going to win, so I have to play him!
He's finished in the top 7 four consecutive tournaments, ranks third in both strokes gained: total as well as off-the-tee, and the switch over to Callaway clubs has been a non-issue. Rahm has finished no worse than 17th at this tournament over the last four years, while gaining nearly 31 total strokes in the process. He's an Arizona State graduate playing just outside of where he went to school. TRUST THIS PROCESS.
If I didn't think he is winning this weekend's Waste Management Open, we're not even discussing his name because of the exorbitant price that comes along with him. Run with Rahm.
ALTERNATE PLAYS:
Rory McIlroy ($10,600): +1150 - First time playing at TPC Scottsdale, but course fits his game perfectly and played well in his first round back at Torrey Pines last week
Daniel Berger ($9,600): +1700 - Quietly playing excellent golf in January with two top 10 finishes in Hawaii at the TOC and Sony. A two week break has him out of sight, out of mind for many DFS players and bettors.
Mark Farris: Sungjae Im
DraftKings Price: $9,400
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +3400
This is one of my favorite tournaments. However, part of what made it my favorite was the drunken crowd on 16 that turned golf into a PGA version of Shaq trying to shoot free throws with thousands of people yelling.
There is a lot of good stock to pick from in this range. All are legitimate plays, but I think we should go with someone besides the top 4. All of which are viable and good plays, but, as usual, pricing limits you. Sungjae is still a cut machine. Yes, he pulled a Patrick Reed on the back nine on Sunday after a 31 on the front, but he again showed his scoring prowess and these fairways aren’t as hard to hit as Torrey; nor is the rough as penal.
For those of you that like patterns, here are Sungjae’s finishes since November 2020: T50-T2-CUT-T5-T56-T12-T32. See the pattern?
Outside the top 30, inside the top 15, T32 last week leads to top 15 this week. Plus, he was T7 here in 2019 and T34 last year. Again, do you see the pattern? I’ll venture to guess this is one of the most outlandish rationales you’ve seen for a pick!
I also like Will Zalatoris ($9,000) a lot too! However, I think he is going to be popular!
$7,500 - $8,900
Ben Heisler: Henrik Norlander
DraftKings Price: $7,500
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +12500
Since I'm spending up with Rahm, we'll have to dig deep this week on a few players and Norlander comes in right at the very bottom of this tier.
He's someone who's incredibly streaky. His roller coaster of 2020 included three consecutive weeks of missing the cut three different times! But when he gets on a roll, he puts up top tier numbers including last week at the Farmers Insurance Open (2nd) and the week before at the American Express (12th). In the last two weeks alone, he's gained just under 18 strokes total, and 14.7 SG: tee-to-green.
My only concern with Norlander is you want to jump on-board before he starts to flail again, and I think his price range makes him an acceptable risk considering just how good he can be.
Mark Farris: Matt Kuchar and Louis Oosthuizen
DraftKings Price: Kuchar ($7,700) | Oosthuizen ($8,900)
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Kuchar +12500 | Oosthuizen +4500
Kuch? Yes, he’s not playing his best, but he does seem to love it here. His history from 2017-2020 is T9-T5-T4-T16. He’s long enough even though the bombers sometimes have an advantage here. This is a longshot, but at $7,700, it’s worth one.
If you’re not interested in my cheap choice, I also like Louis Oosthuizen at the top of this range. He’s only played here once, but he finished 3rd in 2017. He’s made eight of his last nine cuts and returned after a two month layoff from the PGA Tour last week and finished T29. Nothing spectacular, but enough to show me his game is still pretty sharp.
$7,400 and Under
Ben Heisler: Rory Sabbatini
DraftKings Price: $7,300
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +10000
The good folks over at Fantasy National have Sabbatini projected for sub 5% ownership on DraftKings this week. I'm certainly not going to complain about having a lack of ownership on a player I'm on, but I'm curious as to why?
Sabbatini's been awfully good, particularly in his last two events finishing 10th at the Farmers and 12th at the AMEX, both of which were the two most recent PGA events. He did miss the cut at the Sony the week before, but he still has three top 12s in five weeks.
He's also scoring a bunch of fantasy points, ranking 8th in DraftKings points gained among the field despite a price tag in one of the lower tiers.
I will absolutely have some exposure on Sabbatini for top 10 (+750) and top 20 (+300) bets this week, but I believe the true value here is on the DFS side.
Mark Farris: Michael Thompson
DraftKings Price: $7,200
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +17500
So, let’s see. Who do I humiliate this week with a pick in this range? I got Sepp Straka two weeks ago and I think I bent all of John Huh’s clubs last week before the weekend rounds. NOTE: I’d still consider both of them in a lineup this week too!
Michael Thompson hasn’t missed a cut since last June and that was on the Korn Ferry Tour since the U.S. Open in September. He’s been spotless and that’s good when you are talking golfers that are salary savers and DFS tournament winners. His last four events have been, from most recent, T5-T25-T21-T15. I’d take the points with any of those finishes for $7,200.
Top Fade
Ben Heisler: Matthew Wolff
DraftKings Price: $8,700
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +5500
Wolff is an immense talent, and is one of my favorite golfers to ride the wave on when he's locked in. He has the ability to shock and completely turn it around at TPC Scottsdale, but I'm not banking on it.
The numbers from the previous five tournaments are a disaster for an $8,700 price tag:
- Farmers - W/D
- The American Express - T40
- The Masters - MC
- The Zozo - T50
- CJ Cup - 73
In that same price range, I could spend up $300 for Will Zalatoris coming off another impressive outing at Torrey Pines. I could also grab Brooks Koepka, Billy Horschel, Bubba Watson, or even Russell Henley who had been one of the hottest golfers on the planet just a few weeks ago.
If you're going to "cry Wolff," you may as well do it when he's actually playing well.
ALTERNATE FADE:
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,700: (+2300) - Finished T53 at the Farmers and tends to go in swings. Too pricey and too low of odds to feel like it's a rock-solid play at that price.
Mark Farris: Matthew Wolff
DraftKings Price: $8,700
DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +5500
I’m breaking my own rule here. I usually don’t like to name a fade that’s less than $9K. However, I’ve seen some hype on Wolff this week and I’m not understanding why. One, he withdrew last week with a hand injury, but miraculously, there has been little or no mention of that this week. Two, he missed the cut here last year and finished T50 in 2019 on a sponsor’s exemption. Not really anything I’m rushing to roster.
NOTE: If I had to fade someone above $9K, I think it would be Scottie Scheffler at $9,100 but that’s only because I don’t want to “full fade” anyone. He’s missed his last two cuts so that’s where I’d have to fall this week.
