Week 3 Touches, Targets, Volume & Regression Index
Welcome to Week 3! We have a new batch of underperforming high-volume players and overperforming low-volume players to analyze.
Inefficient volume players
RB David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Montgomery did less with more this week. After posting 100 yards on the ground with ease against the Rams, the third-year pro struggled to find any running room against the Bengals. Chicago's offense was anemic in the narrow win, managing just one offensive touchdown. Montgomery turned his 24 opportunities (20 carries, four targets) into just 79 yards. Efficiency, rather than workload, is the concern moving forward. However, the mobile Justin Fields may cut into Montgomery's carries and goal-line touches if Fields starts against the Browns — the rookie quarterback carried the ball 11 times Sunday after replacing the injured Andy Dalton.
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon took all of his team's 20 rushing attempts but was held to 69 yards. A touchdown could have salvaged a forgettable day for Mixon, but many of Cincinnati's drives were cut short by Joe Burrow's three interceptions. The Bengals only reached the red zone once. Mixon was not involved in the passing game (one catch on two targets), and his longest run was 10 yards, but the volume is enough to support more respectable fantasy outings in the future. His 54 touches are third-most in the NFL.
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WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
Quarterback Daniel Jones has favored Sterling Shepard to Golladay so far. Golladay saw eight targets on Thursday but only hauled in three for 38 yards. The deep balls he was known for in Detroit haven't come yet — his longest reception is 17 yards. Golladay is on the field plenty, and he's not the top option as he was billed. It's difficult to see his workload increasing with the threat of Evan Engram returning and Saquon Barkley becoming more involved in the passing game, so hopefully, he can up his 14.6 yards per catch, which would be a career-low.
WR A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
Brown only caught three of nine targets last week, thanks to a few drops. He still leads the team in targets (17) but was outperformed by Julio Jones in the Seahawks game — Jones had more yards in that game than Brown has this season. Brown has been incredibly efficient in his young career, not catching many passes but taking them for big yardage and, every so often, touchdowns. His ability to find that big-play connection he's had in the past with quarterback Ryan Tannehill will dictate his fantasy future. If he's not taking the four or five catches a game for 100 yards or to the house, his value nosedives.
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Limited volume efficiency
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Chubb nearly topped 100 yards on the ground despite taking fewer carries (11) than he did last week (15). A 26-yard touchdown run punctuated his big game against the Texans. Chubb played a slightly higher percentage of snaps against Houston than he did against Kansas City, but Kareem Hunt led the team in carries. So far, both of Cleveland's games have been close late into the second half, necessitating more passing from Mayfield. The Browns can run the ball even more if they get out to a healthy halftime lead. Fantasy managers can expect slightly more work for Chubb moving forward, but he's still splitting time with Hunt.
RB Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Pollard was the model of efficiency against the Chargers and made the most of his increased playing time (34% of snaps, up from 24%) and opportunities. Pollard totaled 140 yards on 13 carries, and three receptions found the end zone and made the case he should continue to see more work alongside Ezekiel Elliott. Realistically, Pollard is not going to out-snap Elliott, whom the Cowboys are committed to long-term. The 16 touches he saw against LA may be on the high end of the spectrum, but if Pollard sees around 10 touches per game, he could be a viable flex option.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase found the end zone for the second straight week despite only catching two passes. Through two weeks, he's been every bit the deep threat he was at LSU with Joe Burrow — they have connected for 42- and 50-yard completions. Tyler Boyd (13) and Tee Higgins (15) both have more targets than Chase (11). There's a very good case for Chase to see more work, considering how good he's been. He leads the team in receiving yards (155) and yards per catch (22.1). A bump in target share could vaunt Chase firmly into high-end WR2 territory.
TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Once again, Gronkowski and Tom Brady hooked up for a pair of touchdowns. Gronkowski is currently the NFL's premier end-zone threat — four of his 12 catches have gone for scores. Tampa Bay's offense appears unstoppable with the immortal Brady at the helm, and the presence of three top-tier receivers is not dampening Gronkowski's fantasy value whatsoever. His volume will likely not increase, and it's hard to imagine him keeping up this touchdown pace, but at some point, this becomes real. Tight ends are notoriously touchdown-dependent, and it seems for now that you can truly depend on Gronkowski to get you a touchdown.
Week 2 TTVR Index Performances
Click here for last's week article
Inefficient volume players
Najee Harris: Volume stayed about the same, and efficiency improved. Harris was more involved in the passing game and scored his first career touchdown.
James Conner: Volume decreased significantly (eight carries down from 16), and efficiency remained the same, which wasn't a good thing. Conner averaged 3.3 yards per carry in both games.
D.J. Chark: Volume decreased (four targets down from 12) and was less efficient (one catch down from four).
Kyle Pitts: Volume stayed about the same (six targets down from eight) and played more efficiently (14.6 yards per catch up from 7.8).
Limited volume efficiency
Josh Jacobs: Did not play Week 2 (toe/ankle).
Ty’Son Williams: Volume increased (13 carries up from nine) and was still an efficient runner (5.9 yards per carry).
Van Jefferson: Volume stayed the same (three targets in both games) but was inefficient, taking one catch for 14 yards.
Juwan Johnson: Volume remained the same (three targets once again), but performance did not repeat with zero touchdowns after two in Week 1.
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