NFL DFS Week 8: Perfect Million-Dollar Lineup Guide
Living in the daily game world for any sport requires a lot of work with little reward for the casual player unless the stars align for one magical day. Most daily owners need to decide whether to be a grinder or a swing for the fence player. One path keeps you alive for more days of action with the idea of building your bankroll slowly. The other has a donation feel while offering a pot of gold at the end of a distancing rainbow.
Since the daily sites started offering the million-dollar overall prize, I’ve been trying to find my get-out-of-jail-free card. The goal is to handicap the main football slate on Sunday and invest in the best possible combination of foundation players. If my key players have success, I will be in the hunt with many teams. Each football season, I expect to be in the mix in four or five weeks.
All players listed are for the main slate of games on Sunday.
Quarterback Stacks
When reviewing this week’s matchup, Allen sticks out as an edge. Some of the other top offenses aren’t on the main slate on Sunday, leaving daily players in a head-scratching mode when developing this best lineup for Week 8. Buffalo has dominated Miami over their past six games matchups (6-0) while outscoring them 232-112. The Bills scored a minimum of 31 points over this span.
The Dolphins passed the ball better over the past two matchups (620 yards with four touchdowns) with Tua Tagovailoa back behind center. Their defense allowed 191 points (24 touchdowns—defensive score) over their past six games. Miami ranks 27th in quarterback defense (24.30 FPPG) while giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Tom Brady beat them for 452 yards and five scores, with most of the damage coming from his wideouts (23/349/4).
Allen has an underperforming WR1 (Stefon Diggs), plus depth behind him at wide receiver. However, he did lose Dawson Knox two weeks ago due to a hand injury. After losing their top tight end, Gabriel Davis may emerge as the player with a bump in opportunity in Week 8.
This matchup for Allen points to upside, but he needs Miami to solve the league's top defense to force Buffalo to the air for the whole game. However, the combination of Allen to Diggs does come with a price in salary cap contests.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
After shining over a three-game stretch (297/4, 226/3, and 427/5), Herbert had no answer for the Ravens’ defense in Week 6 (207/1). He averaged 327 combined yards over his first five starts. However, in half of his six matchups, Herbert produced only one touchdown. In addition, his yards per pass attempt (7.2) remains well below the top quarterbacks in the game.
New England still has a top fantasy pass defense (20.21 FPPG – 8th), which is helped by facing the Jets (2), Texans, and the Dolphins. Over the previous three weeks, Quarterbacks passed for 1,010 yards with seven touchdowns. Running backs have 24 catches and 204 yards on 28 targets over the last two weeks.
Herbert has a viable pass-catching tight end, two top wideouts, and an elite receiver out of the backfield. If Mac Jones plays well on the road, the Chargers will need to throw the ball well to win this game. New England played five of their first seven games at home, so regression on defense should be expected in this matchup.
Austin Ekeler popped up on the injury report on Friday with a hip issue, but it sounds like he’ll play.
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Based on the first seven games, Brady should only be a consideration when playing at home. In his four starts in Tampa, he passed for 1,277 yards while delivering 18 touchdowns or 31.98 fantasy points per game. Brady averaged 333 passing yards in his three matchups on the road, but he only has four scores. The Saints’ defense held him to 647 passing yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions in three matchups in 2020.
New Orleans has the fourth-best fantasy quarterback defense (17.84 FPPG), with only the Giants producing a winning game (429/2). They allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks delivering only six passing touchdowns. The Saints play well versus the run (3.3 yards per rush), so Tampa needs to move the ball via the pass to win in New Orleans.
Brady almost has an against the grain feel in Week 8.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Surprisingly, the Rams fell behind early last week after the Lions hit on a long touchdown and had a successful onside kick to jump out to a 10-0 lead. Stafford finished as the third-highest scoring quarterback (334/3) led by Cooper Kupp (10/156/2). Over his seven starts, he averaged 310 yards and 2.7 touchdowns. Stafford has three touchdowns or more in four starts, with three of those outcomes coming at home.
Houston fell to 22nd in defending quarterbacks (23.51 FPPG), with failure in three matchups (JAC – 330/3, BUF – 307/3, and ARI (270/3). The Texans allow 8.6 yards per pass attempt, but teams tend to beat them with their run game (216/1,020/12). Over the previous six weeks, offenses averaged 33.3 rushes per game and 4.7 yards per rush on the year.
In Week 7, the Rams’ run game drew plenty of attention, but game flow led to Stafford shining. Based on the direction of both franchises, Los Angeles should regain their value running the ball versus the Texans. I won’t dismiss Stafford from my top six options at quarterback in Week 8, but the run should hurt his ceiling in passing touchdowns in this matchup.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
After seven weeks of action, Hurts ranks sixth in quarterback scoring (27.56 FFPG) despite passing for under 200 yards in three contests (190/0, 198/0, and 115/1). He offsets this shortfall with his value in the run game (66/361/5). His floor in fantasy points has been 23.70, with a range between 25.80 and 32.05 over the past five games.
The weakness in the Lions’ pass defense has started to bleed through over the last two games (CIN – 278/3 and LAR – 334/3). Quarterbacks gain 9.5 yards per pass attempt, but they only average 29.6 passes per game. In addition, Detroit only faced one rushing quarterback (Lamar Jackson – 7/58), and their defense hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown over the past three weeks. The Lions struggled to defend the run from Week 3 to Week 6 (125/566/3).
The Eagles’ receiver corps comes into this matchup with low salaries across the board while having a potential explosive matchup. If Detroit can score over three touchdowns, something they haven’t done since Week 1, Hurts has the tools to post the top quarterback score the day. His ability to run also helps his floor.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals threw the ball well over the previous two games (271/3 and 416/3), thanks to 13 completions over 20 yards and four of those plays gaining 40 yards or more. Burrow is on pace for 4,857 combined yards over 17 games with 41 touchdowns despite averaging only 30.3 passes per game. Both his completion rate (69.9) and yards per attempt (9.2) grade well. Burrow has a minimum of two touchdowns in each matchup.
The Jets’ defense had their worst showing of the season in Week 7 versus the Patriots (11 scores on 11 possessions – 4 field goals and seven touchdowns). New England passes for 411 yards with three touchdowns plus a high level of success on the ground (32/148/4). New York hasn’t been tested by wide receiver (67/843/3 on 102 targets) that often in 2021. Most offenses beat New York via their running backs in the passing game (11/93, 10/94, 9/68, and 11/123/1).
Burrow has great receivers, but the Bengals have tried to control the clock with the run game in most weeks. The Jets only have nine touchdowns in six contests, pointing to Joe Mixon seeing plenty of chances. Ja’Marr Chase is a beast with a rising salary. His explosiveness added to Cincy's receiving depth gives Burrow a high ceiling if their coaching staff decides to air the ball out.
Foundation Core Players
The top end of the running back position appears to have lots of outs this week. I’m fading the highest three options due to investment cost.
Derrick Henry rates as the top running back in Week 8 by Sports Illustrated projections, but he will need at least two scores to fill his salary bucket in this matchup.
Tampa plays well versus the run, which is enough of a reason to stay away from Alvin Kamara after a monster game against Seattle (179 combined yards with a touchdown and 10 catches). He falls into the against-the-grain category while being a lower percentage own.
Austin Ekeler has a winnable matchup, but his hip issue is enough of a concern to push me elsewhere at running back.
I need to see how Cleveland uses Nick Chubb before riding him in a daily space. He sat out two weeks with a calf issue. The Browns have a challenging matchup, but they will ride the running game as much as possible, creating upside for Chubb if given over 20 touches.
Based on the matchup data, Joe Mixon and Darrell Henderson look to have the best chance of delivering impact games.
© Joe Maiorana/USA TODAY Sports
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy continues to rotate in a second running back since Mixon played with a slight ankle issue in Week 5. The Bengals had him on the field for 78.9 % of their plays over the first three weeks, compared to 58.5 % over the past two games. Mixon has an excellent chance at over 100 combined yards with a minimum of one touchdown. Based on his matchup data (11 touchdowns and 52 catches allowed by the Jets), he should also be active in the passing game.
RB Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson failed to come in last week after seeing much tougher sledding than expected against the Lions’ defense. So it makes sense to run him back as his matchup points to plenty of touches and upside in scoring. Running backs gained 1,081 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 24 catches against the Texans.
This week, I’m in the Eagles’ offense camp, making De’Andre Swift a perfect player to use from the opposing team. He is active in the passing game with value at the goal line.
I mentioned Jonathan Taylor and Stefon Diggs in my DFS article this week. I expect Taylor to draw much attention in the daily games despite not having an elite matchup.
My top three mid-tier core players at wide receiver are Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, and Chris Godwin.
WR Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons’ offense looks much better with Cordarrelle Patterson playing well and Kyle Pitts developing into a stud. However, Ridley hasn’t had an impact game all year despite averaging 10.4 targets per game. Nevertheless, his opportunity ranks near the top of the league, and his salary looks favorable in his matchup.
WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Allen plays well at home, but his production fell short of expectation over the past four weeks. I highlighted his matchup in my prop bet article earlier this week.
WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Tampa losing Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans gain a more significant piece of the passing pie. Godwin didn’t do much last year in three games against the Saints (6/79, 3/41, and 4/34), but he dominated the in 2019 on the road (7/125/2). Godwin played much better at home (28/348/3 over four games) than on the road (14/172 over three games).
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
It will be challenging to get away from Kyle Pitts after two dominating games (9/119/1 and 7/163). The Falcons looked his way 27 times over this past three weeks. Carolina showed regression covering tight ends over the last month (DAL – 7/76/2, MIN – 4/73/1, and NYG – 8/52).
Value Options
Kenneth Gainwell, DeVonta Smith, and Hunter Henry were all written about in my picks, plays, and value article on Friday.
Here’s my perfect lineup for Week 8:
I’m sticking with the double stack of Eagles’ wide receivers plus Gainwell. I rate Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins pretty close, so I will use both options in my million-dollar swing. Earlier in the week, I noticed Watkins had an over/under of 38.5 receiving yards compared to 30.5 by Reagor. Based on this, I’m riding the player the books feels has a better chance to hit on a big play. The whole idea behind this team build is to beat the Lions’ secondary in the deep passing game. Gainwell makes sense based on his salary and pass-catching upside. Ideally, I need Hurts to throw a touchdown to all three players that I used from Philly.
The running back options look interchangeable, but that won’t be the case after the games are completed. I wanted to use Jonathan Taylor, but I didn’t want to give him the Bills’ defense. Swift made sense as I need Detroit to put up a fight on the scoreboard, and he has three-down ability.
My other possible adjustment was dropping off of Hunter Henry for Pat Freiermuth. With Eric Ebron ruled out, he should build on his growth from Week 6 (7/58). This change would help me get to Taylor, but I didn't see any wide receiver I liked above Watkins or Reagor.
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