After seven weeks of trying to beat the SI Sportsbook with my player prop predictions, I am 18-14 while being +0.35 units on a $100 baseline of each investment.
I went 1-3 in Week 7, with no bet on Darren Waller after getting scratched in the early afternoon before kickoff. My two players on the Packers fell short of expectations after Washington controlled the clock in the third quarter but failed to reach the end zone.
If I wager on the favorite, I lay the juice to win $100 (-115 betting line = $115 dollars to win $100). On the underdog side, I wager $100 to win the extra profit ($100 to win $150 with +150 betting line).
When reviewing all the props lines, I’m looking for flaws in pricing. I would expect most of my investments to come on the overside unless I see an overcorrection in a stat line.
With my head down after losing the bounce in my betting step the past two weeks, I press on with another battle with the books in Week 8.
My only winning play in the player props last week came via a 59-catch by Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp against the Lions. Detroit’s secondary has a ton of downside risk, highlighted by wide receivers gaining 15.7 yards per catch. The Rams’ wideouts finished with 20 catches for 269 yards and three scores in Week 8.
Five wide receivers (Deebo Samuel– 9/189/1; Davante Adams– 8/121; Darnell Mooney– 5/125; Justin Jefferson– 7/124; Kupp– 10/156/2) gained more than 100 receiving yards, plus four other wideouts finished with more than 62 yards receiving.
Smith averages 7.7 targets per game, while offering winning prop stats in three matchups (6/71/1, 7/122 and 7/77). Six of his 32 catches gained more than 20 yards.
His big-play ability should shine through in this contest.
Allen gained 8.1 yards on 26 catches with one score over his last four starts. His catch total has declined since Week 3 (8, 7, 6, 5), while averaging 9.7 targets on the year.
He played well at home in 2020 (69/701/4 on 94 targets) over seven starts. This season, Allen gained more than 65 yards in two of his three home matchups (4/100, 7/36 and 6/75) while failing to score.
New England lost CB Jonathan Jones last week, and their bigger concerns should be slowing down Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. Wide receivers have 89 catches for 1,197 and seven touchdowns against the Patriots. They’ve allowed more than 65 receiving yards to five wideouts (DeVante Parker – 4/81; Braxton Berrios – 7/73; Mike Evans – 7/75; Chris Moore – 5/109/1; CeeDee Lamb – 9/149/1).
Allen should regain the bounce in his receiving production this week, and his volume of chances helps his ability to reach the over.
In his first game without Zach Ertz, Goedert caught three of his five targets for 70 yards. He only has 18 catches for 286 yards and two touchdowns through six games, ranking him 16th in tight end scoring (8.66 FPPG) in PPR leagues. Goedert was consistently selected as a top 10 tight end heading into 2021 season-long drafts.
Detroit ranks just above league average in tight end defense (24/355/2 on 35 targets). George Kittle (4/78), Mark Andrews (5/109) and Tyler Higbee (5/46) had more than 3.5 catches. In their other four matchups, the Lions faced four opponents (GB, CHI, MIN and CIN) with second-tier options at tight end.
I have Goedert projected for five catches for 69 yards, with a seventy-five percent chance of scoring against the Lions.
The Colts’ matchup against the Titans showcases two of the NFL's top running backs. Derrick Henry has an incredible opportunity (29.9 touches per game), while Jonathan Taylor continues to work in a semi-committee role in Indy. Indianapolis had Taylor on the field for a season-high 65 percent of its plays in Week 8 against the 49ers.
He’s gained more than 100 combined yards in five of his seven starts, while averaging 17.6 touches per game. Taylor tallied 551 yards over his previous four matchups with six touchdowns.
The Titans have the ninth-best defense against running backs (20.27 fantasy points per game), but they allow 4.7 yards per rush to backs. Tennessee held Taylor to 72 combined yards on 11 touches in Week 3. The only two players to gain more than 100 combined yards were Chase Edmonds (106) and James Robinson (147).
On paper, Taylor looks to be the underdog in his prop bet. However, his play has been exceptional, and he has the wheels to him on a long play at any time. The Colts needs to win this game, and they should ride Taylor early and often this week.
The Dolphins’ pass defense has been brutal over their past five contests (344.2 passing yards per game and 8.6 yards per pass attempt). Las Vegas (386/2), Tampa Bay (452/5), and Atlanta (386/2) had the most success. Miami has played well versus quarterbacks in the run game (23/62), with Josh Allen (7/33) doing the most damage.
Over his past four starts, Allen gained more than 350 combined yards in three contests (367/5, 374/4, and 379/3) against Washington, Kansas City, and Tennessee. He averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt, with additional rushing success (30/135/2).
Allen passed for 179 yards and two scores in a 35-0 blowout win against the Dolphins in Week 2. He also has a six-game winning streak against the Dolphins,with 1,740 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.
I have him projected for 384 combined yards this week.
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