NFL DFS Week 15 Perfect Million-Dollar Lineup Guide
Living in the daily game world for any sport requires a lot of work with little reward for the casual player unless the stars align for one magical day. Most daily owners need to decide whether to be a grinder or a swing-for-the-fences player. One path keeps you alive for more days of action with the idea of building your bankroll slowly. The other has a donation feel while offering a pot of gold at the end of a distant rainbow.
Since the daily sites started offering the million-dollar overall prize, I’ve been trying to find my get-out-of-jail-free card. The goal is to handicap the main football slate on Sunday and invest in the best possible combination of foundation players. If my key players succeed, I will be in the hunt with many teams. Each football season, I expect to be in the mix in four or five weeks.
All players listed are for the main slate of games on Sunday.
Quarterback Stacks
Allen tried his best to carry the Bills to a win against Tampa last week, leading to 427 combined yards with three touchdowns. However, he came out of the game with a foot injury that may hinder his running and accuracy this week. Over the past seven matchups, his biggest negative was his low output in yards per pass attempt in five contests (5.9, 5.6, 6.0, 4.8, 5.7). Allen ranks second in quarterback scoring (27.33 FPPG). He has scored over 30 fantasy points in six games (40.80, 39.65, 33.25, 31.95, 31.30, 39.30).
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
The Panthers have the third-best defense against quarterback (17.92 FPPG), with eight opponents scoring fewer than 20 fantasy points. Carolina allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt while failing in one matchup (MIN – 373/3). Quarterbacks average only 29.5 pass attempts, and a favorable schedule helped the Panthers’ success vs. the pass (NYJ, NO, HOU, PHI, NYG, ATL (twice), WAS, MIA).
The Bills need a win in the worst way, and Allen looks poised to shine this week. The SI Sportsbook lists Buffalo as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5, pointing to more runs. In addition, Gabriel Davis gets a bump in opportunity with Emmanuel Sanders on the shelf with a knee injury. Allen is projected to gain 299 yards with 3.5 touchdowns.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Since returning from an ankle injury, Murray has looked more spry in the run game (10/59/2 and 7/61) compared to his previous five starts (32/77 – 2.4 yards per carry). Last week, he threw the ball better (383 yards), but Murray failed to deliver a passing touchdown with two interceptions. Over his 10 games, he has averaged 27.21 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues. The Cardinals will be without DeAndre Hopkins, giving Christian Kirk a bump in chances.
The Lions rank 10th in quarterback defense (20.74 FPPG), with the most struggles coming in three games (GB – 255/4, CIN – 295/3, LAR – 332/3). Detroit allows 8.2 yards per pass attempt while still showing risk defending wide receivers (151/2,123/10 – 14.10 yards per catch). However, the Lions have overachieved defending quarterbacks due to a low number of passing attempts (31.2 per game) and running backs scoring 23 touchdowns.
The status of James Conner is critical to evaluating the ceiling of Murray against Detroit. Arizona has a chance to shine on the deep passing game, and the rushing scores could shift to the quarterback position if Conner can’t suit up. I set his bar at 314 combined yards with 2.5 touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
In my Week 15 DFS Report, I wrote up the outlook for Stafford in his matchups against Seattle. The Covid-19 status for Odell Beckham Jr. and Darrell Henderson remains without an update on Thursday. Ideally, the passing game for the Rams would get a slight downgrade if Beckham doesn’t play.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Over the past six weeks, Prescott has been up and down in his passing production (232/2, 317/2, 216/0, 375/2, 238/1, 211/1). His season started with three or more touchdowns in five of the Cowboys’ first six contests. Dallas plays its fourth game on the road over the past five weeks. Prescott has 17 touchdowns and two interceptions at home in six contests, compared to eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in the same number of games on the road. In Week 5, he passed for 302 yards and three scores against the Giants.
New York has one disaster game (NO – 263/3) against quarterbacks. Three teams (WAS – 336/2, DAL – 324/3, and TB – 318/2) passed for over 300 yards. The Giants hold quarterbacks to 6.8 yards per pass attempt, leading to the 20th-ranked quarterback defense (21.50 FPPG).
Dallas should have Tony Pollard back this week, and they have three talented wideouts. However, the Cowboys need the Giants to play better offensively to create a higher scoring environment for their passing attempts. SI Sportsbook has Dallas favored by 10.5 points, creating more runs.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
The Packers’ passing attack has been on the rise over their last four games (331 yards per game). Rodgers has 11 touchdowns in his past three starts, pushing him to seventh in quarterback scoring (291.55 fantasy points) despite missing one game. He remains on a path to deliver 40 touchdowns.
Baltimore sits 23rd defending quarterbacks (21.68 FPPG). They lost CB Marlon Humphrey in Week 13, but the Browns (190/2) didn’t test their secondary on many plays in this last matchup. Three teams (LV – 435/2, IND – 402/2, CIN – 416/3) gained over 400 yards passing. The Ravens allow 15.1 yards to wide receivers, with five teams (14/243/1, 15/206/1, 19/302/1, 12/232, 11/234/2) gaining over 200 yards.
Rodgers has one of the top wideouts in the game, but he needs Lamar Jackson to play and have success to push the issue on the scoreboard. Baltimore hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown over their past four matchups, pointing to an active passing day for the Packers.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
With Jaylen Waddle landing on the Covid-19 list on Thursday, the Dolphins look to be down their top receiver on Sunday. Tagovailoa appeared to be a value at quarterback when doing the daily game research on Wednesday.
Foundation Players
The running back position in Week 15 is full of question marks due to injuries and Covid-19. Information on many players could change on a dime by game time on Sunday.
RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
My first running back for my perfect lineup this week will be Robinson. He has been a challenging ride of late, but a change at head coach in Jacksonville should breathe some fresh air into the Jaguars’ offense. Robinson was highlighted in my DFS Report earlier in the week.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Ideally, my second choice at running back would come from the Cardinals’ backfield if James Conner can’t suit up. Sony Michel will also be in play if Darrell Henderson doesn’t return from his Covid-19 issue. Myles Gaskin is a third running back of interest, based on the Jets having the worst rushing defense in the league. He needs to be cleared from the Covid-19 list to play on Sunday.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Harris draws the second-best defense against running backs (19.38 FPPG), but he can overcome his matchup by volume of touches. Over his seven games at home, Harris gained 710 yards with four touchdowns and 39 catches (20.57 FPPG) on 179 touches (25.6 per game). However, Harris gained only 3.7 yards per rush, with only three of his 237 carries gaining over 20 yards.
Running backs scored nine touchdowns against the Titans while holding offenses to fewer than 100 yards rushing in 11 matchups. Backs also have 59 catches for 483 yards and one score.
For Harris to be a lead RB1 in the daily space, he needs to score two touchdowns with over 100 yards and some value in catches. I have him projected for 106 yards with a score and five catches.
WR Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
The Rodgers-to-Adams connection has been in top form over the past three games (7/115/2, 8/104, 10/121/2), lifting him to third in wide receiver scoring (252.40 fantasy points). He also has three other games (8/121, 12/132/1, 11/206/1) with over 100 yards receiving. Adams has the same number of catches (45) at home and away, but his edge in receiving yards (640 – 564) has come on the road.
Baltimore will attack the quarterback (26 sacks) with the blitz, but their secondary has risk against wide receivers (146/2,210/12 – 15.1 yards per catch). Over the past seven games, five wideouts (Ja’Marr Chase – 8/201/1, Marquise Goodwin – 4/104/1, Darnell Mooney – 5/121/1, Jarvis Landry – 6/111, Diontae Johnson – 8/105/2) gained over 100 yards.
If the Packers need to throw, Adams should have no problem beating this pass defense. Baltimore wants to run the ball to slow down the clock, and no Lamar Jackson does invite a dull offensive day by the Ravens. Adams projects to catch seven passes for 113 yards and a touchdown.
WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers struggled to get Samuel the ball in the passing game over his last three matchups (1/15, 1/12, 1/22). However, he maintained his fantasy value by being active in the run game (5/36/1, 8/79/1, 6/66/2, 8/37/1) over his previous four games. When at his best as a receiver, Samuel posted three impact games (32.90, 35.70, 30.30 fantasy points). In Week 4, he dusted the Seahawks for eight catches for 156 yards and two scores.
Seattle worked its way to eighth defending wide receivers (175/2,079/7), but most of their struggles came from Weeks 2-5 (12/199, 17/194/2, 14/220/2, 21/326). In addition, they allowed only one touchdown to a rushing receiver over the past nine games.
I like the combination of Samuel’s running ability and receiving skills. He looks to be on a path for 127 yards with a chance at two scores and five catches.
Value
WR Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
Last week, Davis had a season-high eight targets, leading to five catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. He has a score in back-to-back contests. Buffalo gave him WR2 snaps in Week 14 after the Bills lost Emmanuel Sanders to a knee injury. Over his first 29 games in the NFL, Davis has 59 catches for 984 yards and 11 touchdowns while gaining 16.7 yards per catch. Josh Allen looks for him at the goal line while also offering big-play ability.
Here’s is my perfect lineup for Week 15:
I am going with the assumption that James Conner doesn’t play on Sunday. If Chase Edmonds isn’t activated, I would gladly ride Eno Benjamin. This move would create enough room to roster a $5,100 player at flex.
My other option if Conner plays would be to start Myles Gaskin (if he plays) at RB2. This change pushes me lower at the flex position ($3,900) with minimal outs. The easy fix would be giving up the Bills defense to open up some salary-cap relief.
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