Week 16 Dynasty Stock Watch: Buy, Sell, Hold Trade Advice
It’s that time of year: the fantasy playoffs.
The have and have-nots are firmly entrenched. The trade deadline has likely passed. Non-competitive teams have been asked to not add off the waiver wire? But why?
This week’s dynasty tip goes to commissioners.
Striking that balance between being aloof and ruling with an iron fist is no easy task. But teams no longer competing for a title should have something to play for. Tanking should be discouraged, but how do you discourage tanking?
One recommendation is to create a loser’s bracket for the non-playoff teams. And instead of giving the 1.01 to the loser bracket winner, I recommend giving them the 1.03 and leaving the 1.01 and 1.02 to the bottom two teams. However, in these cases, you have to monitor teams intentionally using bad lineups. That adds a layer of subjectivity and adds a layer of having to be the “big brother” commissioner who is watching each and every move. It’s tedious as a commissioner, especially if you run more than one league or play in a number of leagues.
The league host Sleeper provides an “anti-tanking” scoring setup where you can view or use a “maximum points for” which is basically a best-ball scoring setting so you don’t have to worry about teams setting intentionally bad lineups to tank.
Having a robust league constitution that gets into the weeds of these scenarios is the best you can do. When money is on the line, even if it’s not much, managers will try to exploit your rules to their favor. As the league evolves and these situations arise, you can continue to amend your constitution to fit the best fit for you and your league.
When I’m commissioner? I don’t implement tanking rules other than you have to start a healthy player, no matter what. If somebody tanks and gives their opponent a freebie win … Well, you win some and you lose some.
I’m not interested in micro-managing everyone’s actions. You can’t impose your will on a group into your direction—not for long anyway. Manager turnover, griping, in-fighting—it all comes with the territory.
Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:
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QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Not exactly the easiest player to discuss. But whether you’re in a one-QB league or superflex, Watson has a specific best fit.
If your best QB is QB10 or worse in a one-QB league or you only have one QB15 or better in a superflex, I feel Watson is a worthwhile risk. I look at this situation like Michael Vick. Although the legal situation is very different, we’re essentially dealing with a legal fallout and the accompanying lengthy time-off. Vick, pre-prison, was actually a very productive fantasy QB. In his four seasons, pre-prison, where he played 15 games or more, he finished as the QB3, QB12, QB7 and QB2. That QB2 season was his 2006 season, the season before he went to prison.
Watson has been much more steady. In his rookie year, he was the QB26 with only seven games played. Then, he went on a run as the QB4, QB4 and QB5 from 2018 to 2020. I see no reason he can’t pick that right back up wherever he lands.
Here’s the rub: Anybody who has Watson already has a high-risk tolerance and/or a very good roster where they can afford to exercise patience. At a minimum, we can all see the silver lining to his situation. It just boils down to making the right offer. In a perfect world, the team holding Watson already has Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes. A team really lacking a strong QB1 needs to be aggressive here because we’re in a lull before the offseason and the rumor mill restarts.
Price check (1QB): 2022 early-2nd in 1QB / in superflex
Price check (SF): 2022 early-1st
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Buy
2022 1.01 Rookie Pick
Back in late October, ahead of Week 8, I wrote about this pick. I pointed out that because there wasn’t a consensus first pick, the pick’s value was lukewarm. To make matters worse, the 2023 draft class has so much hype that it’s hurting the 2022 pick values. Even now with the offseason even closer, the value of early 2023 picks is still notably higher than early 2022 picks. I think that’s just illogical.
We can always squabble over values and rookie or devy talent, but this still feels like a great buying opportunity. We’re not betting on the talent, we’re betting on our ability to out-evaluate our league peers. Whether we are picking first because we traded up or we’re accumulating more picks by trading down, the game is the same: evaluation.
I understand the argument that since there is no No. 1 guy, you may as well trade down. Sure, that makes sense too, but I’m looking to accumulate and concentrate player and pick value. If your whole roster is trash and you need 10 rookies to breathe life into it, by all means, get more picks. There’s not a one-size-fits-all strategy.
Here’s a quote from my Week 8 dynasty stock watch with my trade strategy for this pick:
For rebuilds, always make yourself available to trades and trade talk. We may need to trade for a 2022 mid-first to sweeten a deal for the 2022 1.01… we want to find a way to learn the bare minimum to extract the pick. That often boils down to trial and error in trade offers. Make the 1.01 holder a legit offer and try your best not to lowball. We want to always seem reasonable and malleable enough to hear a trade partner out. It’s okay to be stubborn and opinionated, but your trade partner doesn’t have to know that you are.
Price check: 2022 mid-1st, 2022 2nd
Win-now: Sell as late as possible
Rebuild: Buy ASAP
Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
I could even see this argument go both ways. For me, it’s a hard pass after this season.
He’s certainly having a career-altering year and changed the trajectory of how the fantasy community views him after two up-and-down seasons in Pittsburgh following his 2018 breakout season. Let’s rewind a bit … Back in that 2018 campaign, Conner finished as the RB7 despite only playing 13 games. He followed it up by falling off a cliff. He missed nine games over his next two seasons with RB33 and RB25 finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Chase Edmonds was the hyped-up RB sleeper heading into the year, but he didn’t do much despite the Cardinals being so good. We see how that’s played out more recently. He’s been out for a good chunk of the season and just made his return in Week 15. He had 53 yards on six carries against Detroit. Even if you take it out his one 23-yard run, that’s five carries for 30 yards or 6.0 ypc. I only point this out to say he’s an explosive second option with room for more touches next season.
This leads this discussion to my preferred style of running back as a fantasy manager. I do not like touchdown-dependent players. The list of examples is a mile-long: Robert Tonyan’s 11 TDs in 2020, Adam Thielen’s 14 TDs in 2020, Aaron Jones’ 19 TDs in 2019 and my personal favorite example, Dwayne Bowe’s 15 TDs in 2010.
I could go on, but let’s focus on the brass tacks. Touchdowns are like wins in fantasy baseball—meaning thattouchdowns are a team stat more than a player one. They are generally unpredictable. Sure, Derrick Henry is probably a lock to score at least a dozen TDs every year, but that’s indicative of his role. What we’re focusing on is outlier touchdown production and that brings us back to Conner.
Through 14 games, Conner has 16 TDs which equals 96 fantasy points and he has 230.4 fantasy PPR points. Touchdowns are just shy of 42% of his point total. Let’s compare that to Jonathan Taylor, the most ideal RB out there: 331.4 fantasy points with 114 points from touchdowns, which comes out to 34.3%. You expect a really good workhorse running back who’s the focal point of the offense to push that number higher. However, an even better example is Najee Harris who has 245.6 points with just 54 points coming from TDs—that’s just under 22%.
Boil it all down and I prefer backs who can be relied on to move the chains by delivering yards and receptions. I can’t trust Conner to score 16 TDs next season. He’s scoring a touchdown on 7.3% of his touches. Taylor, in the midst of a MVP-caliber RB season, is averaging 6.2% of his touches going for touchdowns and Henry was averaging 4.2% before his injury. For Conner, this touchdown production is not sustainable and it’s not realistic. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, because it won’t.
Price check: 2022 mid-2nd, 2022 3rd
Win-now: Hold, Sell pre-rookie draft
Rebuild: Sell
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