Much like Aaron Rodgers’ cryptocurrency salary’s value, his dynasty value is on a downward trend. Should you buy the Rodgers’ dip? And how much of his value is tied to Davante Adams? Let’s walk through the dynasty values of each player.
For the uninitiated, the hurdles for the Packers to retain both are financially staggering. Already $48.2 million over the cap, Green Bay is likely to pursue the franchise tag for Adams, which would then pay him around $19.1 million in 2022. That pushes them to $67.3 million over the cap. Adams wants to be the highest-paid receiver in the league, a valid ask given his stats over the years. But what sense would it make for Green Bay to fork over all that dough if Rodgers pushes for a trade or retires?
My gut tells me both players stay put with Adams slapped with the tag and Rodgers given a contract extension to defer salary. We’re essentially looking at a team that is heading toward Saints territory. New Orleans was already in salary cap hell before Drew Brees retired and made it even worse. Green Bay's cap situation is eerily similar, with or without Rodgers on the ledger. They will rearrange the monetary deck chairs and reload for another run in 2022. The alternative hits the reset button in an untenable way. If Adams goes, Rodgers is gone. The only way Adams stays is if he is given the franchise tag, which allows the Packers to kick the salary cap can down the road another year.
With that in mind, I view both players as slight value buys for win-now teams. If you had asked me a few weeks ago about Rodgers, I’d have said he’s likely gone. But can the Packers really trade away Rodgers for draft picks and then allow Adams to walk away to sign elsewhere? Or trade Rodgers and then hit Adams with the tag, which he has already stated he doesn’t want? Green Bay has already said they want Rodgers for the rest of his career, and I don’t believe that’s lip service. I also am not worried about the Broncos poaching away Rodgers after hiring away Green Bay’s OC Nathaniel Hackett.
Is there risk of a Rodgers retirement? It doesn’t make sense to me. And that overinflated, cooked-in risk is built-in to his value. That’s why I’m leaning bullish on him being a buy. Rodgers is a guy with a lot he wants to do (and say) and he seems to be just as good now as he ever has been in his career. Adams wants to get paid, but he wants to be paid by the Packers so he can keep playing with Rodgers. Whether it’s a franchise tag or a big-time, multi-year deal, it’s up to Green Bay to find a way to make it work.
Don’t believe the hype. Hold if you’ve got either of them and look for buying opportunities if you don’t and think you can contend in 2022.
In superflex leagues, I value Rodgers around the value of the 2022 1.03 pick. In 1QB leagues, he’s a low first-round rookie pick. Adams in superflex and 1QB is worth the 2022 1.01 pick and a low first. Please understand if you’re selling, you’d likely want more than this and if you’re buying, you’re not wanting to spend much more.
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