Sandy Alcantara & Jazz Chisholm Jr. Looking to Make the Leap
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After stealing a postseason appearance in 2020 (outscored by 40 runs), Miami finished with a losing record for the 11th time in 12 years. The Marlins have two World Series titles (1997 and 2003) in the team’s 29-year history.
They finished 11th in ERA (3.96). Their bullpen had 35 wins, 34 losses, and 33 saves with a 3.81 ERA (7th). Miami ranked 31st in runs (623), 28th in home runs (158), and fifth in stolen bases (106).
The Marlins signed Of Avisail Garcia to help boost the middle of their lineup. They sent C Jorge Alfaro to the Padres for a player to be named later. Miami replaced him with C Jacob Stallings for SP Zach Thompson, SP Kyle Nicolas, and OF Connor Scott. Their final deal came with Tampa for 3B Joey Wendle while sending over OF Kameron Misner.
The strength of their roster is in the starting pitching department. The Marlins have a chance to have five top-tier starters if SP Jesus Luzardo figures out why he struggled in 2021, and SP Sixto Sanchez recovers from his offseason shoulder issues.
The Marlins hope RP Anthony Bender can seize the closing job. Behind him, they don’t have another elite arm, but multiple players should chip in with some good innings.
I expect Miami to be better offensively while balancing veteran bats and multiple young players just starting their major league careers. The growth of 2B Jazz Chisholm, OF Bryan De La Cruz, and OF Jesus Sanchez sets the bar for the Marlins’ offensive improvement.
Pitching wins championships, which gives the Marlins sneaky playoff upside if their top arms pitch as expected and stay healthy.
Andy Marlin/USA Today Sports
Starting Lineup
2B Jazz Chisholm
Over five seasons in the minors, Chisholm hit .256 with 195 runs, 57 home runs, 177 RBI, and 50 stolen bases over 1,218 at-bases. His counting stats grade well, but he struck out over 30 percent of the time. However, his contact batting average (.386) offsets some of his batting average risk while also owning strength in his average hit rate (1.814).
Chisholm shaved off a few strikeouts in his first full season with Miami (28.6 percent). However, his walk rate (6.7 – 8.9 in the minors) still needs work to hit at the top of the batting order.
He played better against right-handed pitching (.252 with 14 home runs and 40 RBI over 325 at-bats) while whiffing 26.6 percent of the time. Chisholm was a much better player at home (.271/40/11/32/10 over 255 at-bats).
Miami placed him on the injured list twice with a hamstring issue and left shoulder injury. Chisholm also missed some time with an ankle issue.
Despite hitting for power, he had a ground ball swing path (48.6 percent) with the Marlins. In the minors, Chisholm had much more loft in his swing. His launch angle (9.0) ranked 249th with Miami. However, he finished with strength in his HR/FB rate (18.2).
Fantasy Outlook
There are a lot of moving parts in Chisholm’s outlook in 2022. His power looks for real, and I expect a push higher this year. Changing a fly-ball swing path is possible, but it could also invite more batting average risk (easier outs and more whiffs). His ADP (79) is driven by his speed. Chisholm ranked 71st for hitters by SIscore (0.41) while playing about 75 percent of the season. The positives outweigh his risk in batting average, but a fantasy manager has to account for his one shortfall. Possible .250 with 85 runs, 25 home runs, 70 RBI, and 25 steals with 550 at-bats.
3B Brian Anderson
Miami placed Anderson on the injured list twice with a left shoulder issue that led to surgery in September. He also missed time earlier in the year with an oblique issue.
His walk rate (9.2) and RBI rate (16) in his career have been assets. However, Anderson saw a spike in his strikeout rate (26.6 – 20.4 in 2018 and 2019) over the past two seasons.
He continues to hit many ground balls (48.8 percent). Anderson finished last year with a new high in his fly-ball rate (36.3). However, his shoulder woes led to a three-year low in his HR/FB rate (11.5).
Fantasy Outlook
Anderson has the approach to hit second in the Marlins’ lineup with a rebound in his strikeout rate, but he is far from a lock. Players coming off shoulder injuries tend to fall short of expectations in power the following season. In addition, Anderson has only one season of value over the past four years (2020 – SIscore [-0.23 – 74th]). His ADP (397) ranked him as a bench player in deep formats. He tends to be a slow starter, so I would avoid adding him on draft day.
OF Avisail Garcia
Over the past three odd years, Garcia helped fantasy teams in some way based on his lower price point. He set career-highs in home runs (29) and RBIs (86) in 2021, but his swing still delivers too many ground balls (47.2). In addition, Garcia struggles with his launch angle (9.3 – 245th) while grading higher in his hard-hit rate (46.4 – 64th) and barrel rate (12.2 – 56th).
His strikeout rate (23.5) almost matched his career average while finishing in a tight range over the past three seasons. Garcia has done better drawing walks in 2020 and 2021 (8.0 percent).
The Brewers never gave him over 87 at-bats in any month last year. He battled back and hamstring issues in September.
Fantasy Outlook
This year, Garcia should see over 500 at-bats, the first time since 2017. His average hit rate (1.868) supports a push to 30 home runs, even with many of his swings rolling through the dirt in the infield. I view him as a steady piece to the puzzle while failing in a challenging part of drafts (ADP – 168). However, his ballpark will hurt his power. Nevertheless, Garcia has a reasonable value with a chance to hit .270 with 75 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBI, and five stolen bases.
1B Jesus Aguilar
The move to play with the Marlins treated Aguilar well over the past two seasons. His RBI rate (21.3) has been exceptional. He hit .265 over his last 637 at-bats with 80 runs, 30 home runs, and 127 RBI. When at his best in 2018, Aguilar had a high average hit rate (1.963) and contact batting average (.287).
In late September, he missed the final 25 games in 2021 with a left knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery.
Aguilar continues to lower his strikeout rate (18.2), but his walk rate (9.0) regressed despite remaining an asset. Most of his production came in April (.291/12/5/24 over 86 at-bats) and July (.294/9/6/24 over 85 at-bats). Miami never gave him over 92 at-bats in any month.
His fly-ball rate (46.6) was well above his career average (40.8), but Aguilar continues to rank lower than expected in his HR/FB rate (13.0). His launch angle (19.0 – 34th higher) lacked an edge in his barrel rate (8.5 – 143rd).
Fantasy Outlook
The struggle with Aguilar comes from the supporting cast in the Marlins’ starting lineup. I don’t see much help in runs, and his upside in home runs looks tricky. His ADP (290) puts him in the corner infield conversation. Aguilar is on a path to hit .260 with 75 runs, 25 runs, and 90 RBI.
3B Joey Wendle
After showing progress in 2018 with Tampa (.300 with seven home runs, 61 RBI, and 16 steals over 487 at-bats), Wendle had an injury-plagued season in 2019. However, he worked himself into a rotational role in 2020 while seeing time at second base, third base, and shortstop.
Last year his bat had losing value against lefties (.202 with two home runs and 11 RBI over 119 at-bats). Wendle played well on the road (.311 with 46 runs, nine home runs, 34 RBI, and six stolen bases over 241 at-bats).
His balanced skillset over 460 at-bats ranked 119th in SIscore (-2.00) for hitters.
Wendle has a ground ball swing path (49.4), leading to a low fly-ball rate (29.9). Additionally, his HR/FB rate (10.6), launch angle (6.2), and barrel rate (4.6) put a low ceiling on his power.
Fantasy Outlook
His ADP (357) puts him in the free-agent pool in 12-team leagues. He projects as a platoon player until his bat shows more life against lefties. I view him as an injury-replacement player only.
OF Jesus Sanchez
Over six seasons in the minors, Sanchez hit .300 with 292 runs, 60 home runs, 335 RBI, and 30 stolen bases. His bat held form at AAA (.290/40/15/45 over 269 at-bats). He has a favorable strikeout rate (18.3) with a below-par walk rate (6.5).
The Marlins gave him 64 games last year where Sanchez held form in power (14 home runs and 36 RBI over 227 at-bats). However, his struggles in batting average (.251) resulted from a higher strikeout rate (31.1). He finished with strength in his contact batting average (.383 – .438 at AAA). In September, Sanchez had the most value (.266/15/9/19 over 94 at-bats).
His launch angle (8.7) ranked 255th.
Fantasy Outlook
Sanchez projects to hit for average, and his ceiling in power will spike with an improved swing path. He comes off the board as the 145th hitter in the NFBC with an ADP of 231. The key in his second year in the majors is controlling the strike zone better. Let’s set his bar at .275 with 80 runs, 25 home runs, and 80 RBI with some help in speed.
OF Bryan De La Cruz
After a sluggish start to his minor league career over five seasons (.269 with 205 runs, 15 home runs, 156 RBI, and 29 stolen bases over 1,355 at-bats), De La Cruz became fantasy-relevant at AAA last season. He hit .324 over 272 at-bats with 48 runs, 12 home runs, and 50 RBI, leading to his call-up to Miami.
De La Cruz handled himself well over 199 at-bats (.296/17/5/19), but he did have a regression in his average hit rate (1.441). His minor league approach graded slightly better than the league average (strikeout rate – 20.1 and walk rate – 9.2). With the Marlins, De La Cruz saw his strikeouts (24.2 percent) drift higher.
He played well vs. lefties (.347 over 49 at-bats with two home runs). His swing path tends to be balanced while offering minimal steals.
Fantasy Outlook
The sample size of his success is short for De La Cruz. However, his body still has room to fill out, which will help his power and ability to hit the ball hard. He has a waiver wire ADP (477) in the NFBC. Worth a bench flier in deep formats.
1B Lewin Diaz
After stalling in the Twins’ system six seasons (.269 with 175 runs, 58 home runs, and 236 RBI over 1,548 at-bats), the Marlins acquired Diaz at the trade deadline in 2019 for RP Sergio Romo. His bat played well in power at AA and AAA (28 home runs and 65 RBI over 393 at-bats) with Miami, but he only hit .234.
His strikeout rate (17.8) was positive while offering a below-average walk rate (6.9). He has a fly-ball swing path (52.6), but Diaz does hit many infield flies.
In September, the injury to Jesus Aguilar led to Diaz getting a bump playing time with the Marlins (.236 with 11 runs, five home runs, and eight RBI over 89 at-bats). However, his approach failed to match his minor league resume (strikeout rate – 25.8).
Fantasy Outlook
The DH in the National League gives Diaz a window to seize starting at-bats. His average hit rate in 2021 in the minors (2.087) and majors (2.200) points to well over 30 home runs with better contact. However, his batting average looks negative due to the number of easy outs created off his bat via fly balls. Diaz won’t be drafted in any redraft formats, but his bat may help fill some injury gaps during the season if he is getting starting at-bats.
SS Miguel Rojas
Rojas improved his play over the past four seasons for Miami (.270 with 29 home runs, 167 RBI, and 33 steals over 1,591 at-bats). His strikeout rate (13.7) remains low, with a shallow walk rate (6.5 in his career).
He played well in May (.302/19/3/9/1 over 86 at-bats) while showing more value against lefties (.317 with four home runs and 18 RBI over 142 at-bats) on the year. In addition, Rojas added some steals (27) to his equation over the past three years, helping his fantasy playability.
Over 12 seasons in the minors, he hit .245 with 21 home runs, 224 RBI, and 78 stolen bases over 2,633 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
Miami paid Rojas $10 million for two years in the offseason. He projects as their starting shortstop on opening day, but a lot could change for him over a long season. As a result, I’m not too fond of his ADP (366) due to his overall ceiling and potential job loss risk.
Bench Options
2B Isan Diaz
After playing at a high level at AAA in 2019 (.305 with 89 runs, 26 home runs, 70 RBI, and five steals over 377 at-bats), Diaz received 439 at-bats with Miami over the next three seasons. He hit only .185 with 45 runs, nine home runs, and 41 RBI. A trip back to AAA in 2021 didn’t create a spark in his play (.243/16/5/15 over 103 at-bats)
He upped his walk rate (12.2) with the Marlins last season while striking out 26.3 percent of the time.
Over seven seasons in the minors, Diaz hit .262 with 378 runs, 93 home runs, 342 RBI, and 57 steals over 2,255 at-bats with a top-of-the-order walk rate (12.2) and weakness in his strikeout rate (25.0).
Fantasy Outlook
Diaz has a lot to prove at the major league level while having a swing that should deliver 30-plus home runs down the road. His first step is producing a higher contact batting average with Miami. If his game improves, Diaz could push Jazz Chisholm to shortstop and Miguel Rojas to a utility role. Keep an open mind if his bat shows life early in the season.
1B Garrett Cooper
Cooper had a weak power-hitting resume for a first baseman over six seasons in the minors (.304 with 46 home runs, 274 RBI, and five steals over 1,627 at-bats).
His swing did make a step forward at AAA in 2017 (.366 over 17 home runs and 82 RBI over 279 at-bats), but he missed most of the 2018 season with a triceps issue and hamstring injury.
In 2019, Cooper played well off the bench for the Marlins (.281 with 15 home runs and 50 RBI over 381 at-bats). Unfortunately, a left-hard injury cost him most of April, plus he sat out the final two weeks of the year with a knee issue.
Over the past two years, he hit .284 with 50 runs, 15 home runs, and 53 RBI over 335 at-bats. He missed a month in 2020 with Covid-19 and 90 games last season due to groin, foot, and back issues before seeing his year end in July with a torn UCL in his left elbow that required surgery.
Fantasy Outlook
Cooper is a big man (6’5” and 235 lbs.), giving him sneaky power upside. The DH in the National League should help his game, and his elbow injury was with his non-throwing arm. Staying healthy has been a massive problem for Cooper in his career. However, his game should help fantasy teams, and no one will fight for him on draft day (ADP –518).
Jasen Vinlove/USA Today Sports
Starting Rotation
SP Sandy Alcantara
Over his last 40 starts, Alcantara went 12-17 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and 240 strikeouts over 247.2 innings. Last year he figured out how to throw more strikes (67.9 percent and 63.8 percent first-pitch strikes), leading a career-low walk rate (2.2) and a new top in his strikeout rate (8.8).
Alcantara dominated at home (2.41 ERA, .198 BAA, and 110 strikeouts over 104.2 innings). He finished with excellent command against right-handed batters (17 walks and 107 strikeouts over 367 at-bats).
Batters struggled to hit his sinker (.220 BAA), four-seam fastball (.229 BAA), changeup (.229 BAA), and slider (.190 BAA). His average fastball (98.1) continues to rise.
Alcantara pushed his ground ball rate (53.3) to a career-best level while also lowering his fly-ball rate (27.7).
Fantasy Outlook
Other than wins, his arm reached elite status while owing the tools to get even better. He has a foundation ace feel while coming off the board as the 11th starter in the NFBC with an ADP of 38 in January. Alcantara ranked 24th in SIscore (2.00) for pitchers. He needs five more wins and repeated stats to earn his price point—next step: a sub 2.75 ERA and 225+ strikeouts.
SP Trevor Rogers
In the 2017 June Amateur Draft, Miami drafted Rogers with the 13th overall pick. However, a left forearm injury pushed back his debut in the minors until late May 2018.
He struggled over 17 starts at A ball (5.82 ERA). His season started with an 8.78 ERA and 1.875 WHIP over 13.1 innings. Rogers settled into a better rhythm over his next 11 starts (4.09 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 50.2 innings) before blowing up in his final two games (11 runs and 19 baserunners over 8.2 innings with 11 strikeouts).
Rogers looked worthy of his high draft selection in 2019 (2.90 ERA and 150 strikeouts over 136.1 innings) while seeing regression after his promotion from High A (2.53 ERA) to AA (4.50 ERA).
After struggling in 2020 with Miami (6.11 ERA over 28 innings), Rogers kicked down the major league door over his first 20 starts (2.45 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 110 innings). A family issue led to him missing August. He posted a 3.52 ERA with 28 strikeouts over his final 23 innings.
His average fastball (94.6) had plenty of life. Rogers threw a plus changeup (.202 BAA) and four-seamer (.214 BAA). Left-handed batters hit .310 against his slider.
Fantasy Outlook
Rogers has a green light flashing next to his name on draft day. His ADP (91) makes him a cheat SP2 in 15-team leagues in the NFBC. The growth of his changeup set up his breakthrough in 2021. Rogers needs to pitch deeper in games. He averaged 87 pitches last year while never throwing over 100 pitches in any game. Miami should push him to 180 innings, similar success in ERA and 200+ strikeouts. His previous forearm issue still lingers in the background, and it could lead to TJ surgery down the road.
SP Pablo Lopez
Lopez threw strikes in each season with Miami, leading to a very good walk rate (2.4). His growth in 2021 came from his improved strikeout rate (10.1). In addition, he allowed two runs or fewer in 13 of his first 16 starts (2.87 ERA and 94 strikeouts over 91 innings). Lopez had three disaster games (16 runs, 28 baserunners, and four home runs over 11.1 innings).
In July, a right shoulder injury (rotator cuff) led to him landing on the injured list for two and a half months.
His average fastball (94.0) fell in line with 2020. Lopez gained strikeout ability from his changeup (.230 BAA) over the past two seasons. Batters struggled with his four-seamer (.214 BAA), curveball (.118 BAA), and cutter (.220 BAA). He does make some mistakes with his sinker (.341 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Lopez hasn’t pitched more than 112 innings since 2017 (145.1 innings). His ADP (132) in the NFBC prices him like last year. I expect him to pitch well when he is on the mound. Pretty much a risk/reward arm, but I tend to shy away from foundation pitchers with a history of injuries.
SP Jesus Luzardo
Over four seasons in the minors, Luzardo went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA and 260 strikeouts over 224.2 innings.
After being eased into 2020, Luzardo failed to live up to expectations over his nine starts (3.83 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 49.1 innings). He didn’t allow a run in four of his appearances (20.1 innings) while having one disaster showing (six runs and 11 baserunners over 3.1 innings).
Last year Luzardo lost his command (4.5 walks per nine) and confidence, resulting in 20 home runs over 95.1 innings. Batters beat him to the tune of a .280 batting average. He had an ERA over 5.25 in every month last season.
His average fastball (95.8) was a step down from 2019 (97.2 MPH). Luzardo only had one pitch of value: his slider (.188 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Trust is a big question with his arm in 2022. Part of my thought process thinks he has an underlying issue, possibly inviting a second TJ surgery. However, Luzardo has a live arm with a reasonable ADP (292) in the NFBC. For now, a player to follow in spring training to see if he can catch a case of “Carlos Rodon 2021”.
SP Sixto Sanchez
Over five seasons in the minors, Sanchez had a 2.58 ERA and 294 strikeouts over 335.1 innings.
Sanchez pitched great in 2019 at AA (8-4 with a 2.53 ERA and 97 strikeouts over 103 innings), which came after two shaky starts at High A (4.91 ERA). His season didn’t start until May due to Miami trying to limit his exposure in innings. In his 18 starts at AA, Sanchez allowed three runs or fewer in every start except one disaster showing (eight runs, 10 baserunners, and three home runs over 3.2 innings). His walk rate (1.7) was elite, with a below-par strikeout rate (7.9).
With no minor league baseball in 2020, Miami called him up on August 22nd, leading to five great games (3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 32 innings). Unfortunately, Sanchez gave back his shining moments over his final two starts (nine runs and 18 baserunners over seven innings) due to a fade in his command (six walks and four strikeouts).
His fastball came in at 98.9 MPH. Sanchez had the most success with his changeup (.131 BAA), but his slider (.300 BAA) failed to live up to expectations.
Last year he missed the whole season with a right shoulder injury that required surgery in July.
Fantasy Outlook
Miami hopes to have him ready for the start of the season. He needs to rebuild his arm strength while climbing the innings mountain on the downside. Nevertheless, Sanchez has a reasonable ADP (337) that will rise once he shows any upside on the mound. He has the tools to be elite, but a pulse is required before placing a premium draft pick.
SP Elieser Hernandez
Hernandez went 28-26 with a 3.13 ERA and 505 strikeouts over 475 innings over nine seasons in the minors. He handled himself well over 72 innings at AAA (1.88 ERA and 103 strikeouts).
Over the past three years with Miami, Hernandez went 7-15 with 172 strikeouts over 159.2 Innings. Last year he started the season on the injured list for eight weeks with a biceps issue. After one start, a quad injury knocked him on the sidelines for another six weeks. Hernandez posted a 3.57 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 40.1 innings over an eight-start stretch.
His walk rate (2.4) is a plus while maintaining strength in his strikeout rate (9.2).
His AFB (91.0) remains below the league average. Hernandez offers a plus slider (.185 BAA) and a winning low-volume changeup (.158 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Hernandez has the arm and strength to get batters out when on the mound. He pitches up in the strike zone (fly-ball rate – 43.0) while owning a disastrous HR/FB rate (20.0 – 15.8 in his career) and HR/9 rate (2.3 – 2.0 in his career). His ADP (333) takes out some downside risk. Ride him while he is hot while understanding a significant injury may not be far around the corner.
SP Edward Cabrera
Cabrera had a tough time over his first three seasons in the minors. He posted a 4.21 ERA at rookie ball in 2016, followed by weakness at Low A (5.30) and Single-A (4.22 ERA).
In 2019, his arm was much improved (9-4 with a 2.23 ERA and 116 strikeouts over 96.2 innings). Cabrera had the same success at High A (2.02 ERA) and AA (2.56 ERA). Last year he missed the first month of the minor league season with a biceps issue. Over 13 starts, he posted a 2.93 ERA and 92 strikeouts over 61.1 innings.
Miami gave him seven starts late in the season, but Cabrera struggled in almost every outing (5.81 ERA, 1.663 WHIP, and six home runs over 26.1 innings). He pitched over four innings in one game with a tremendous walk rate (6.5).
Cabrera offers a plus fastball (96.9). However, his changeup (.357 BAA) was a liability with the Marlins. Batters struggled with his curveball (.167 BAA) and slider (.143 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Cabrera has explosive upside, and he would give Miami another exciting piece to their starting rotation. His command remains in question while proving he can handle more length in his workload. Cabrera may emerge in Miami’s bullpen. His biceps issue is also a red flag early in his career.
Bullpen
SP Anthony Bender
Over four seasons in the minors, Bender went 15-12 with a 3.30 ERA, 198 strikeouts, and 16 saves over 239.2 innings. Early in his career, he worked as a starter before shifting to the bullpen full-time in 2019.
In his first season, Bender brought an elite sinking fastball with the Marlins (97.4 MPH). Batters struggled with his swing and miss slider (.148 BAA).
He started his major league career with 21.1 shutout innings, allowing 10 hits, five walks, and 23 strikeouts. However, Bender tripped up over his next 12 games (6.08 ERA) due to three home runs allowed over 13.1 innings. He finished the year with a 3.30 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 30 innings.
Fantasy Outlook
With only two saves on his major league resume, Bender, for now, lines up to close for Miami. His ADP (446) puts him in the closer-in-waiting mode in January in the NFBC. He has the command and fastball to pitch late in games, but Bender needs to show he can handle the job.
SP Dylan Floro
Floro finished with the lion’s share of saves (15-for-18) for the Marlins last year. Over six seasons in relief in the majors, he went 20-13 with a 3.18 ERA and 201 strikeouts over 223.2 innings while failing to secure a save before last season.
His walk rate (3.5) invites some disaster innings, but Floro does a great job keeping the ball in the park (0.5 home runs per nine). He issued 17 of his 25 walks to over 110 at-bats with 18 strikeouts to left-handed batters.
Despite his success in ERA (2.81), Floro struggled in three different months (May – 5.19 ERA, June – 4.22 ERA, and August – 4.50 ERA).
His average fastball (93.8) is just above the league average. Batters struggled with his four-seamer (.138 BAA), sinker (.230 BAA), and changeup (.225 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
The closing job for Miami will be fluid early in the season. Floro’s success in 2021 gives him the inside track for saves, but his career resume says he doesn’t have the skill set to keep the opportunity all year. His ADP (254) in the NFBC is too rich for my blood.
More fantasy baseball coverage:
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- AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins
- AL WEST: Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers
- NL EAST: Atlanta Braves
