2022 Fantasy Baseball: Cleveland Guardians Team Outlook
The loss of SP Shane Bieber for half the 2021 season was too much for Cleveland to overcome to make the postseason. They finished two games under .500, giving the newly renamed Guardians their first losing season since 2012. They finished 18th in ERA (4.34), allowing 70 more runs than in 2019 (657). Cleveland’s bullpen had 32 wins, 30 losses and 39 saves with a 3.64 ERA (sixth). The Guardians also ranked 18th in runs (717), 12th in home runs (203) and third in stolen bases (109).
They only lost backend players to free agency (RP Blake Parker, RP Oliver Perez, RP Bryan Shaw, C Roberto Perez, RP Nick Wittgren and C Wilson Ramos). Cleveland added C Sandy Leon to compete for a backup catching job. They traded OF Harold Ramirez to the Cubs for cash.
Cleveland has one proven bat (3B Jose Ramirez) in their starting lineup and two other players (SS Amed Rosario and DH Franmil Reyes) with some success in the majors. However, their offense needs help via free agency while currently looking like a weak power-hitting team.
A return to the playoffs will come from a rebound in starting pitching. Bieber remains an ace when healthy while coming off a right shoulder injury. The threesome of starters Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie all offer upside. SP Cal Quantrill showed growth as a starter in 2021.
RP Emmanuel Clase outdueled RP James Karinchak for the closing job. Both options have closing talent and strikeout ability. Karinchak can’t reach an elite level without throwing strikes more consistently.
The Guardians have no World Series titles, but the Indians did win two championships (1920 and 1948). In addition, Cleveland has made the postseason four of the last six years.
OF Myles Straw
Over five seasons in the minors, Straw hit .305 with four home runs, 148 RBI and 170 steals over 1,831 at-bats. In 2018, between AA and AAA, Straw picked up 70 stolen bases over 516 at-bats. His walk rate (12.5) had top-of-the-order value in the minors, with a respectable strikeout rate (16.7).
His average hit rate has never been above 1.300, giving him a pure Judy bat (minimal home runs and low RBI).
Last year, Straw had his first starting opportunity in the majors. He helped fantasy teams in runs (86) and steals (30) while posting a neutral batting average. His plusses outweighed his shortfalls in home runs (4) and RBI (48), leading to the 51st ranking by SIscore (1.60 – 3.77 in the stolen base category).
His walk rate (10.5) supports a leadoff role, which he did 45% of the time in 2021. In addition, Straw finished slightly better than the league average in strikeout rate (19.0). However, his hard-hit rate (26.2) ranked 301st out of 311 batters with 250 plate appearances. He barreled the bat only 1.3% of the time.
Fantasy Outlook
With a rise to 45 stolen bases, Straw would have a similar skill set as Juan Pierre, who was a fourth- to sixth-round draft pick in the early days of the NFBC (15-team leagues). His ADP (133) puts him late eighth round in 2022 as the 80th hitter drafted, meaning he should be a value by SIscore. The trick is building the correct team structure to cover his weakness in home runs and RBI.
SS Amed Rosario
Rosario ended up not being the answer for Cleveland in centerfield, but he was their better option at shortstop after Andres Gimenez failed to live up to expectations.
After struggling in April (.179/9/2/4 over 67 at-bats), Rosario batted .309 with 58 runs, eight home runs, 45 RBI and 12 stolen bases over his next 398 at-bats. His best fantasy month came in August (.372/18/4/20/3 over 113 at-bats). He played well vs. lefties (.313 with five home runs and 22 RBI over 176 at-bats). Rosario finished with about his career average in strikeout rate (20.4) while slightly increasing his shallow walk rate (5.3).
He continues to have a groundball swing path (51.4% – 50.3 in his career). In addition, Rosario has never posted a fly-ball rate over 30% in his career. His HR/FB rate (9.0) came below in 2019 (10.3 and 13.8), highlighted by his poor launch angle (5.6) and barrel rate (2.8).
Fantasy Outlook
Despite his unimpressive stats, Rosario still finished 80th for hitters in SIscore (0.01). His ADP (165) in mid-January in the NFBC prices him as the 102nd player. Without more loft in his swing, he has no chance at reaching 20 home runs. Rosario doesn’t have the skill set to bat in the top part of the batting order, but Cleveland lacks the team structure to bypass him as an option. In essence, Rosario offsets his dull fantasy stats by volume of at-bats. Think .265/75/15/60/15, but dream that Rosario worked on putting the ball more often in the air over the winter.
3B Jose Ramirez
Ramirez finished as the third most valuable hitter in fantasy leagues in 2020 based on his SIscore (4.60) and fifth in 2021 (8.45). On a per-game basis over the past five years, one could argue that he has been the most trusted batter in baseball (.280/441/144/420/112 – 648 games).
His HR/FB rate (17.0 – 12.8 in his career) is well behind the top power hitters in the game, but Ramirez makes up for his shortfall by delivering a ton of fly balls (45.9, 46.5, 51.1, 17.0 over the last four years). At the same time, many of his misses result in easy outs, leading to a low contact batting average (.316). His average hit rate (2.02) has been elite over the last four seasons.
He tends to have a low strikeout rate (13.7 – 12.2 in his career) while posting a high walk rate (11.3). Ramirez plays better against left-handed pitching (.290 with 11 home runs and 30 RBI over 190 at-bats).
His hard-hit rate (42.4) ranked 117th last year, with a better finish in barrels (11.1 – 74th) and launch angle (18.3 – 44th).
Fantasy Outlook
When looking at last year’s stats, I question whether his runs and RBI are repeatable based on the current structure of the Guardians' offense. With regression in speed, Ramirez may settle into only a neutral average power hitter and a drop of three or more rounds in fantasy drafts. His ADP (4.4) is the highest of his career. I never want to buy a player at peak value unless they are in the prime of their career. Ramirez is young enough to continue on the same path, but I sense more missed steps in 2022.
DH Franmil Reyes
Coming into 2021, there were multiple attractive DH-only players with favorable price points. Shohei Ohtani (sixth), Yordan Alvarez (34th), and J.D. Martinez (36th) all outperformed their ADP by SIscore. Reyes missed five weeks with an oblique issue, costing him 35 possible games or about 24% of his season. His stats projected over 150 games came to 74 runs, 39 home runs and 110 RBI, or almost a 2.00 rating in SIscore (48th).
Despite his success, Reyes finished with a high strikeout rate (32.0). However, he did take his share of walks (9.2%). Reyes continues to have an elite contact batting average (.394) and average hit rate (2.057). Surprisingly, his launch angle (9.7) only ranked 234th but 17th in barrels (16.9%). However, Reyes finished with the highest FB rate (36.0) of his career.
Fantasy Outlook
There is no doubt that Reyes has immense power, and his RBI rate (20) improved each year in the majors. Unfortunately, his ceiling in batting average can’t improve without fewer strikeouts. With 550 at-bats, I see .260 with 80 runs, 40 home runs and 90 RBI. I’ll give him a boost in runs and RBI if Cleveland adds batting help before the season via free agency.
1B Bobby Bradley
Over seven years in the minors, Bradley hit .251 with 156 home runs, 509 RBI and 13 stolen bases over 2,505 at-bats. His strikeout rate (28.4) was high while showing the ability to take walks (10.9%). He hit .251 with 45 home runs and 112 RBI over 613 at-bats at AAA, but Bradley struck out 231 times (33.5%).
In his first extended experience with Cleveland, he posted reasonable production in runs (36), home runs (16) and RBI (41) for his at-bats (245), but Bradley only hit .208. His strikeout rate (35.5) inched higher while taking his share of walks (9.0).
Bradley struggled with lefties (.162 with five home runs, 12 RBI and 31 strikeouts over 68 at-bats) while posting poor stats on the road (.175/13/6/21 over 141 at-bats with 63 strikeouts). After a fast start to his career in June (.254 with eight home runs and 17 RBI over 71 at-bats), he regressed over his final 174 at-bats (.190 with eight home runs, 34 RBI and 78 strikeouts).
Fantasy Outlook
There is plenty of power in Bradley’s swing, but he also has many holes. I can’t see him locking down a full-time job, and a platoon role could be sketchy when he is not making contact. His ADP (402) puts him in the free category. I have him as an avoid due to his batting average risk and expected inconsistent playing time. He has a Mike Zunino feel at first base.
OF Josh Naylor
Naylor came to the majors via a first-round draft pick in the 2015 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over five seasons in the minors by the age of 22, he hit .288 with 50 home runs, 271 RBI and 27 stolen bases over 1,742 at-bats.
He showed growth in power in 2018 at AA (.297 with 17 home runs, 74 RBI and five steals over 501 at-bats). His fast start at AAA in 2019 (.314 with 10 home runs and 42 RBI over 223 at-bats) led to his first experience in the majors.
Over his 583 at-bats in the big leagues, Naylor only hit .250 with 70 runs, 16 home runs, 59 RBI and three steals. Last year, his season ended in late June with a significant ankle injury that required surgery.
His strikeout rate (14.4) was low in the minors, with a league average walk rate (8.4). However, with the Guardians in his career, Naylor struck out 19.1% of the time.
Fantasy Outlook
Last November, Naylor was back running on the treadmill, putting him on a path to be ready for 2022. His bat looks stable but boring at this point in his career. He has enough size to make a jump in power, but there isn’t a reason to chase him in drafts over the winter. However, with a hot spring training and a starting job, Naylor may very well hit .280 with 15 home runs and 75 RBI.
2B Andres Gimenez
Over five seasons in the minor, Gimenez hit .279 with 248 runs, 32 home runs, 183 RBI and 101 steals over 1,647 at-bats. However, even with success in stolen bases, he was caught 33.2% of the time. In addition, his average hit rate (1.493) has never been an area of strength in the minors.
Last draft season, fantasy managers penciled him in as the starting shortstop for Cleveland. Instead, he hit .180 over his first 78 games with 10 runs, two home runs, five RBI and four steals, leading to a trip back to the minors. Gimenez hit .287 over 209 at-bats at AAA with 30 runs, 10 home runs, 31 RBI and eight steals. His bat had minimal improvement after his callup to the majors (.246 with 13 runs, three home runs and 11 RBI over 110 at-bats) other than steals (7).
Gimenez tends to have a ground ball swing (49.6%). His strikeout rate (25.7) was a problem in the majors with a minimal walk rate (5.2). However, his approach (strikeout rate – 17.6 and walk rate – 7.5) had more promise in the minors.
Fantasy Outlook
He has a clear path to the starting second base job for Cleveland. His ADP (266) looks more attractive than last year. Gimenez should offer a 10/25 skill set out of the gate, with a chance at a neutral batting average. He has more upside in runs than RBIs. With a hot start, Gimenez should move up in the batting order.
C Austin Hedges
Hedges hit .194 over five seasons in the majors with 59 home runs, 177 RBI and 10 steals over 1,518 at-bats. However, his strikeout rate (27.9) continues to be a liability while barely taking walks (4.8%).
In 2016, he flashed at AAA (.326 with 55 runs, 21 home runs and 82 RBI over 313 at-bats), pointing to a higher ceiling in the majors.
His swing path has been fly-ball favoring (44.3%) with Cleveland and San Diego, but Hedges hasn’t unlocked the keys to an impactful HR/FB rate (11.1).
Fantasy Outlook
The current structure of the Guardians points to Hedges earning the starting job. However, with a batting average under .200 against right-handed (.198) and left-handed (.185) pitching in the major leagues, he is only a placeholder at C2 in deep formats.
OF Steven Kwan
Kwan had an exceptional approach in college (82 walks and 38 strikeouts over 481 at-bats), but he offered no power (3) and minimal speed (22) while hitting .329. Cleveland drafted him in the fifth round in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Last season between AA and AAA, Kwan added power (12 home runs over 296 at-bats) to his resume while continuing to hit for average (.328). In addition, he took 36 walks with a low strikeout rate (9.0).
Fantasy Outlook
With only 103 at-bats on his resume at AAA (.311/5/13), Kwan looks to be a couple of months away from the majors. He fits the upside bill that Cleveland needs in the majors. For now, Kwan is a player to follow this spring, just in case his bat has follow-through in spring training.
Bench Options
C Bryan Lavastida
The question at the catcher position for Cleveland puts Lavastida on the fast track to the majors. Over three seasons in the minors, he’s hit .305 with 12 home runs, 111 RBI and 34 stolen bases over 619 at-bats. Last year, Lavastida had 103 at-bats at AA (.291/16/3/17) and 19 at-bats at AAA (.158/2/1/3). His walk rate (12.0) has been exceptional while posting a low strikeout rate (16.3).
Fantasy Outlook
Lavastida will start the year at AAA while needing to hit his way to the majors. His ADP (747) sits in the deep flier range in 15-team draft champion leagues.
2B Owen Miller
Miller is another young player in the Guardians system who hit for average (.305) over three seasons in the minors. His power (20 home runs and 90 RBI) emerged over his last 689 at-bats at AA and AAA. His walk rate (7.8) is just below league average, with a favorable strikeout rate (16.6).
Last year, Cleveland gave him 191 at-bats, leading to 17 runs, four home runs, 18 RBI and two stolen bases. Unfortunately, his approach (strikeout rate – 26.7 and walk rate – 4.5) didn’t come along for the ride.
Fantasy Outlook
There’s upside in Miller’s bat while still needing time to develop. He’ll compete for a bench role in 2022 while most likely starting the year at AAA.
OF Oscar Mercado
Over eight seasons in the minors, Mercado hit .252 with 38 home runs, 241 RBI and 219 steals over 2,574 at-bats. His bat flashed in 2019 for Cleveland, leading a .269 batting average with 70 runs, 15 home runs, 54 RBI and 15 steals. However, he struggled over his last 108 games with Cleveland (.197/33/7/25/10 over 300 at-bats) while also failing at AAA in 2021 (.216/29/5/23/9 over 171 at-bats).
His fade came from a weak contact batting average (.279). However, Mercado offered a competitive approach last season (strikeout rate – 17.7 and walk rate – 8.8).
Fantasy Outlook
At age 27, Mercado is entering the prime of his career, but his future doesn’t look bright with Cleveland. His balanced skillset makes sense, and he has the approach to be a better player. Only a waiver wire player if Mercado shines in a starting role in the majors.
Starting Pitching
SP Shane Bieber
Bieber threw the ball well over his first eight starts (3.13 ERA and 110 strikeouts over 72 innings). However, his walk rate (3.4) fell below his previous resume (2.1 – 2.4 in 2020), which may have hinted at his impending shoulder issue. Over an 11-game stretch, Bieber threw 1,175 pitches (107 per game), with his lowest output being 103 pitches. Two starts later, Bieber landed on the injury list for three-plus months with his right shoulder injury.
His average fastball (92.9) was about 1.5 MPH below 2020 (93.2 in 2019). Batters struggled to hit his curveball (.231 BAA) and slider (.231) while mixing in two low-level usage pitches (changeup – .182 BAA and cutter – .167 BAA). His four-seam fastball (.272 BAA) was the pitch that lost value.
When Bieber returned for his final two appearances, he allowed one run over six innings with four strikeouts. His average fastball (91.4) was below his season average.
Over his last 62 games, Bieber has gone 30-13 with a 2.92 ERA and 515 strikeouts over 388.1 innings. His edge in WHIP (1.056) should be the critical drawing card for fantasy managers.
Fantasy Outlook
Any pitcher with a previous injury has to be a concern unless something is corrected with surgery. Bieber has an ADP of 30 in mid-January, which will surely improve once he hits the mound in spring (similar to Max Scherzer in 2021). With elite command and plus strikeout ability, the only thing holding him back is the health of his right shoulder. On a track for 15-plus wins with a sub 3.00 ERA and 250 strikeouts. With any news of a setback in March, all bets are off.
SP Aaron Civale
Civale reached a higher level over his first 15 starts (10-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 97.2 innings). Unfortunately, a finger injury led to two-and-a-half months on the injury list. When he returned in September, Civale had three disaster starts (16 runs and 22 baserunners over 10 innings), thanks to nine home runs allowed. His walk rate (2.2) continues to be an edge, but his strikeout rate (7.2) is well below the top arms in baseball.
His AFB (91.5) is below the league average. Civale had success with his split-finger fastball (.219 BAA), cutter (.193 BAA), and curveball (.180 BAA). His down days came from his slider (.273 BAA), sinker (.316 BAA), and four-seamer (.287 BAA).
Over his four seasons in the minors, he went 25-16 with a 3.12 ERA and 317 strikeouts over 381.1 innings. Civale walked only 1.4 batters per nine innings.
Fantasy Outlook
Civale will fight the line between good and disaster without a difference-maker swing-and-miss pitch. His arm projects as a fantasy asset if his draft value matches his career path. Civale has an ADP of 260 in mid-January in the NFBC. Double-digit wins with a 3.50 ERA and 150 strikeouts look to be his baseline in 2022.
SP Zach Plesac
In 2020, Plesac figured out how to throw strikes over his eight starts (six over 55.1 innings), which led an impressive season (4-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 57 strikeouts). In addition, he shaved 2.1 walks per nine off his rookie season, leading to a jump in his strikeout rate (9.3). His only blemish was eight home runs allowed.
After three great starts (three runs and 14 baserunners over 21 innings with 24 strikeouts), Plesac missed 23 days of the season due to disrespecting the team’s Covid protocols.
Last year, Plesac was up and down over his first 10 starts (4.14 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 38 strikeouts over 58.2 innings. A broken right thumb led to six weeks on the injured list. Over his final 15 starts, he went 6-3 with a 5.04 ERA and 62 strikeouts over 84 innings. His downfall came from 14 home runs allowed.
His AFB (93.0) was about one MPH lower than 2019 (93.9). Plesac dominated with his slider (.192 BAA) and curveball (.148 BAA) with success with his changeup (.236 BAA). However, he struggled with the location of his four-seam fastball (.325 with 13 home runs over 194 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Plesac flashed his ceiling over his last 33 starts, highlighted by his improved command (1.8 walks per nine). In addition, he has a fantastic slider with depth in his arsenal to get batters out. His next step is lowering his HR/9 rate (1.4). His ADP (316) makes Plesac a viable piece to the backend of a fantasy pitching staff. With a bump in strikeouts, a 3.50 ERA and 1.100 WHIP are within reach.
SP Triston McKenzie
The Indians drafted McKenzie in the first round (42nd pick) in the 2015 MLB June Amateur Draft. Cleveland gave him a full workload at High A in 2017, and he responded with an excellent season (12-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 186 strikeouts over 143 innings).
In 2018, he started the year on the minor league injured list with a right forearm injury. However, his first appearance at AA came in early June with no further setback over the next two months. He finished the year with a 7-4 record with a 2.68 ERA and 87 strikeouts over 90.2 innings. Over his last 11 starts, McKenzie posted a 2.09 ERA and 65 strikeouts over 64.2 innings.
Unfortunately, he missed all of 2019 with an upper back injury.
Over five seasons in the minors, McKenzie went 27-17 with a 2.95 ERA and 417 strikeouts over 350.1 innings.
After flashing over eight games in 2020 (3.24 ERA and 42 strikeouts over 33.1 innings), he lost his command (4.4 walks per nine) last year, leading to 21 home runs over 120 innings with a disaster ERA (4.95). However, McKenzie seemed to right the ship over seven starts (2.04 ERA, 20 hits, five walks and 48 strikeouts over 46 innings) in August and early September. His season ended with three disaster games (14 runs, 26 baserunners and five home runs over 10.2 innings).
His AFB (92.4) offered more velocity over the final four months. However, his four-seam fastball (.227 BAA) was tough to hit despite allowing 16 home runs over 273 at-bats. McKenzie showcased a plus slider (.132 BAA) and curveball (.114 BAA) while barely throwing his changeup (28 pitches).
Fantasy Outlook
McKenzie's arm has multiple signs of greatness, but it all starts with his fastball velocity and command. As he fills out, his arm should progress naturally while highlighting his secondary pitches. His ADP (235) won’t appear to be a value based on his struggles last year, but McKenzie should not be dismissed. With any spring training reports of a 95-plus fastball, I would run to the ticket window and push the all-in button.
SP Cal Quantrill
In 2019, his arm was a liability over his 103 innings with the Padres (5.16 ERA and 89 strikeouts). Cleveland picked up Quantrill at the trade deadline in 2020 in the deal for Mike Clevinger. Over 18 appearances in the majors, he went 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 32 innings.
Quantrill also struggled over his four seasons in the minors (20-23 with a 4.46 ERA and 312 strikeouts over 336.2 innings). However, he had a good strikeout to walk ratio (8.3:2.8).
After 16 relief appearances (1.90 ERA and 16 strikeouts over 23.2 innings) for Cleveland last year, Quantrill worked his way toward starting. He went 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 82 strikeouts over 99.1 innings in his final 16 starts.
His AFB (94.5) graded well. Quantrill had success with his sinker (.235 BAA), changeup (.247 BAA), slider (.226 BAA) and cutter (.192 BAA) plus low-volume curveball (.200 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Despite an excellent second half, Quantrill has an ADP of 244 in the early draft season in the NFBC. His strikeout rate (7.3) and the length of his resume will deter many fantasy managers. An improving arm that has a trick-or-treat feel. My bet would be on further growth while needing one swing-and-miss pitch to be a star.
SP Eli Morgan
Over four seasons in the minors, Morgan went 21-16 with a 3.14 ERA and 381 strikeouts over 341.1 innings. Despite only six starts at AAA (4.28 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 27.1 innings), Cleveland gave him 18 starts last season.
He allowed 17 runs, 25 baserunners and six home runs over his first 16.1 innings, leading to a 9.37 ERA despite excellent command (two walks and 19 strikeouts). Morgan went 4-5 over his last 14 starts with a 4.44 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 14 home runs and 62 strikeouts over 73 innings.
His average fastball (90.7) came in below the league average. Each of his top three pitches had a risk of leaving the park. Morgan only had success with his changeup (.155 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
If he cleans up his issues with home runs, Morgan has the talent to be a relevant major league arm. He should work out of the Guardians’ bullpen early in the year.
SP Ethan Hankins
Cleveland drafted Hankins 35th overall in the 2018 June Amateur Draft out of high school. However, his price point was discounted due to a right shoulder injury. Over 16 appearances over two seasons in the minors, he had a 2.71 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 63 innings. His walk rate (4.3) needs more work while showcasing upside in strikeouts (11.0 per nine). In 2021, he had TJ surgery on June 2 without throwing a pitch in a game.
Hankins has a mid-90s fastball with more upside as he develops. Both his curveball and changeup have a chance to be edge pitches.
Fantasy Outlook
Cleveland doesn’t expect Hankins back until mid-summer. So his push back up their minor league rankings will come in 2023.
David Dermer/USA TODAY Sports
Bullpen
RP Emmanuel Clase
After struggling early in his minor league career as a semi-starter in the Padres system, Clase looked sharp in 2018 at Low A for the Rangers in the bullpen (0.64 ERA, 27 strikeouts and 12 saves over 28.1 innings).
In 2019, he made the jump from AA (3.35 ERA, 39 strikeouts, and 11 saves over 37.2 innings) to the majors with success. In Texas, Clase finished with a 2.32 ERA over 23.1 innings with 21 strikeouts and one save. Unfortunately, Clase missed all of 2020 after failing a PED test.
Last year, he worked in a split closing role for Cleveland. Other than a six-game stretch midseason (six runs, 12 baserunners and two home runs over 5.1 innings), Clase produced a plus season in ERA (1.29) and WHIP (0.962) while converting 24 of his 29 saves.
His walk rate (2.1) has been elite over his short time in the majors. In addition, he pitched well against righties (.209 BAA) and lefties (.179 BAA).
His AFB (100.4) is one of the best in the game, which he threw about 70.2% of the time. Batters had no answers for his slider (.110 BAA) while offering a successful four-seamer (.232 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Clase has the command and fastball to dominate late in games. His next step is adding more strikeouts to his stat sheet. He comes off the board this draft season as the 23rd pitcher (fourth closer) with an ADP of 66. I’m buying, but Clase needs 35-plus saves and 90 strikeouts to earn his edge.
RP James Karinchak
Over his first 21 games, Karinchak went 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA, 0.4839 WHIP, .046 BAA and 38 strikeouts over 20.2 innings while converting five of his six save chances. However, he struggled in four of his next five games, leading to seven runs, 15 baserunners and two home runs over four innings. Karinchak had five saves over his final 34 appearances while working more in a setup role. Over this stretch, he had a 4.99 ERA and a 1.370 WHIP over 30.2 innings.
His strikeout rate (12.7) was five short of 2020 (17.7), with repeated struggles in his walk rate (5.2). Batters hit .176 against him (.169 in his career).
Karinchak averaged 96.1 MPH with his fastball. His four-seam fastball (.193 BAA) and curveball (.133 BAA) created a winning edge.
Fantasy Outlook
His ADP (424) looks to be an avoid area for many fantasy owners. Karinchak has an electric arm, but success starts by throwing more strikes. Possible 100-plus strikeouts with a sub-3.00 ERA and some vulture wins and saves.
RP Nick Sandlin
Cleveland drafted Sandlin in the second round in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over his two seasons in the minors, he had a 2.68 ERA over 50.1 innings with 74 strikeouts and seven saves.
Rather than start the year at AAA, the Guardians called him up on May 1. His walk rate (4.5) was a problem, but Sandlin struck out 12.8 batters per nine. Over his 33.2 innings, he had a 2.94 ERA and 48 strikeouts. Unfortunately, his season ended in mid-August with a right shoulder strain.
Sandlin finished with a 94.5 MPH fastball. His success came from an electric slider (.100 BAA), but batters didn’t have a problem with his slider (.300) BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
If his right shoulder is healthy in spring training, Cleveland has a third dominating arm to finish games. However, Sandlin needs to work on his command before moving closer to the ninth inning.
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